East Asia: History and Opportunities
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- Hilary Short
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1 East Asia: History and Opportunities Norman Loayza Research Group, World Bank Labuan IBFC 25 th Anniversary Conference
2 The world in 1990
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6 % Increase in Consumer Prices Hyperinflation in Peru
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8 The world in 1990 From chaos to transformation and progress
9 By 1990, East Asia had already found its path to growth
10 Long-term GDP growth trends: before and after China Indonesia Korea, Rep. Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
11 Other developing regions were looking to follow East Asia Latin America & Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa East Asia
12 Declining poverty rates since 1990 Poverty headcount ratio at $3.10 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population) Malaysia China Vietnam
13 Stock Market Capitalization Average (% of GDP) Market capitalization of listed companies (% of GDP) Malaysia China East Asia High income Middle income
14 Private Credit Average (% of GDP) 160 Domestic credit to private sector (% of GDP) Malaysia China East Asia High income Middle income
15 But paradise is yet to come: Growth interrupted by crises
16 1998 Crisis Malaysia Indonesia Brazil Turkey
17 Financial Crisis Malaysia Indonesia Brazil Turkey
18 2014 Commodity Crisis (forecast) Malaysia Indonesia Brazil Turkey
19 Effect of 3 Crises: Malaysia Crisis Year Crisis 2009 Crisis 2014 Crisis *2015 & 2016 forecast
20 Effect of 3 Crises: Indonesia Crisis Year Crisis 2009 Crisis 2014 Crisis *2015 & 2016 forecast
21 Managing risk and crisis: Preparation in good times through prudent macroeconomic and financial policies, targeted social insurance and protection, and flexible private sector
22 Looking at the future: The key to growth is productivity especially for mature economies
23 Productivity has been growing Relative Total Factor Productivity (TFP) Brazil Chile Korea, Rep. Malaysia
24 Productivity: key to growth 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% GDP per capita Capital Labor Population TFP
25 What is productivity? Productivity is the value of product per unit of input INPUTS Low Productivity PRODUCT
26 What is productivity? Productivity is the value of product per unit of input INPUTS High Productivity PRODUCT
27 Components of productivity Innovation Education Infrastructure & Finance Efficiency
28 Components of productivity 1) Innovation: Creation of new technologies, products and processes 2) Education: Development of workers and young people s knowledge and skills 3) Efficiency: Appropriate distribution and use of productive resources 4) Infrastructure: Public goods and services that support the economy 5) Finance: Intermediation of savings to fund new projects
29 Example: Peruvian Cebiche
30 Innovation A genius invents cebiche combining its ingredients using a new recipe
31 Education The recipe for preparing cebiche is gradually taught throughout Peru
32 Efficiency Problem: Fish on the coast, limes in the north, onions in the south... nobody can make cebiche Solution: Efficient distribution of ingredients
33 Infrastructure & Finance Highways between towns and producing regions are built Funds are mobilized to initiate trade and production
34 Cebiche!
35 Components of productivity Innovation Education Infrastructure & Finance Efficiency
36 Competitiveness/Productivity Health, Education and Training Efficiency Institutions Infrastructure Macroeconomic environment Innovation Financial market development Technological readiness Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum 2015 China Malaysia Singapore Vietnam
37 Innovation Education Infrastructure & Finance Efficiency
38 Innovation PCT patents, applications/million pop. Availability of scientists and engineers Capacity for innovation Quality of scientific research institutions Company spending on R&D Gov t procurement of advanced tech products University-industry collaboration in R&D Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum 2015 China Malaysia Singapore Vietnam
39 Technological Readiness Availability of latest technologies 0 Mobile broadband subscriptions/100 pop. Int l Internet bandwidth, kb/s per user Firm-level technology absorption FDI and technology transfer Fixed broadband Internet subscriptions/100 pop. % Individuals using Internet Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum 2015 China Malaysia Singapore Vietnam
40 R&D Expenditure 4 R&D Expenditure(% of GDP, avg ) BDI KOR SVN CHN CZE EST RUS ESP BRA PRT HUN UKR MNE HRV IND TUN ZAF MYS LTU KEN BLR MAR IRN SRB TUR POL GRC BWA BGR GAB ARG LVA SVK MLT MLI TZA MOZ SEN MDA ROM PRI CRI UGA JOR MEX CHL URY CYP PAK GHA MUS BFA BOL ARMEGY PRY ALB ECU DZA AZE ZAR ETH KGZ GEO MNG THA MKD MDG NPL NGA PAN SYC TGO NAM KAZ VNM PHL LKA PER COL OMN GMB KHM TJKLSO LAO ZMB NIC HND IDN GTM CPV SLV BIHJAM IRQ VCT TTO SAU FIN SWE JPN ISL DNK CHE DEUUSA AUT FRA SGP BEL AUS NLD CAN GBR IRL ITA NZL HKG ARE KWT BRN MAC ln (GDP per capita, 2013) NOR LUX Source: WDI, World Bank
41 Innovation Education Infrastructure & Finance Efficiency
42 Education: PISA 2012 Results 610 CHN Aveage PISA Scores VNM HKG SGP KOR JPN POL EST FIN DEUIRL NLD CAN MAC CHE NZL BEL AUS CZE LVA SVN GBR FRA AUT DNK HUN HRV RUS LTU PRT ESP ITA USA NOR ISL LUX SWE SVK ISR TUR GRC SRB THA BGR ROM CYP ARE CHL CRI MYS 2009 MYS 2012 MNE MEX KAZ URY TUN ALBJOR BRA COL ARG IDN QAT PER ln(pbi per capita)
43 Innovation Education Infrastructure & Finance Efficiency
44 Efficiency Women in labor force, ratio to men Intensity of local competition No. procedures to start a business Pay and productivity Trade tariffs, % duty Redundancy costs Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum 2015 China Malaysia Philippines Singapore
45 Innovation Infrastructure & Finance Education Efficiency
46 Quality of infrastructure in East Asia is remarkable, particularly considering countries income level Infrastructure (Global Competitiveness Index) GDP per capita (current US$, 2013) HKG SGP ARE JPN NLD CHE DEU ESP FRA GBR USA KOR AUT CAN BEL AUS LUX PRT MYS ITA ISL FIN DNK QAT SWE BHR SAU NZL IRL RUS OMN NOR PAN EST GRC MLT ISR CHN MUS HRV SVN LTU CZE CYP IDN THA HUN LVA MAR TUR TTO GEO CHL SLV SYC JOR MNE ZAF MEX URY PRI KWT GTM NAM IRN AZE BGR CRI KAZ POL SVK LKA UKR SRB VNM TUN BRA MDA ARM JAM COL MKD IND CIV PHL SUR ALB PER ARG LAO BTN GMB MLI KEN SWZ EGY DOM NIC HND KHM CPV RWA DZA BWA SEN GHA LBY KGZ BOL MNG GAB TJK LSO GUY PAK PRY LBN ETH ZWE ZMB VEN MRT MOZ BGD CMR TZA MWI UGA NPL NGA BDI MDG SLE HTI AGO BFA YEM GIN TCD ln(gdp per capita)
47 Though there is room for improvement in the emerging economies Quality of overall infrastructure Quality of air transport infrastructure Quality of roads 120 Quality of port infrastructure Quality of railroad infrastructure Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum 2015 China Malaysia Singapore Philippines
48 Public Institutions Property rights Security Ethics and corruption 120 Government efficiency Undue influence Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum 2015 China Malaysia Singapore Thailand
49 Innovation Infrastructure & Finance Education Efficiency
50 Financial Market Development Affordability of financial services 0 Legal rights index Regulation of securities exchanges Availability of financial services Financing through local equity market Soundness of banks Ease of access to loans Venture capital availability Source: Global Competitiveness Index, World Economic Forum 2015 China Malaysia Singapore Vietnam
51 Componente de Productividad To improve: Needs to improve? How? Innovation A bit IT to the people Education Yes Basic education Efficiency Yes Reduce trade protection. More women in labor force Infrastructure / Public Institutions Finance A bit Stay the course Rights for all
52 A great opportunity: The Trans-Pacific Partnership
53 TPP Signatories Australia Brunei Darussalam Canada Chile Japan Malaysia Mexico New Zealand Peru Singapore United States Vietnam
54 Trans-Pacific Partnership Largest regional trade agreement in history 12 countries that account for one-third of world GDP and trade East Asia Oceania America Brunei Darussalam Japan Malaysia Singapore Vietnam Australia New Zealand Canada Chile Mexico Peru United States Long-run impact: about 20% of GDP in Malaysia and Vietnam! (Kawasaki, 2015)
55 Challenges are also opportunities: Only openness and integration can sustain progress
56 Thanks!
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