Charting Russia s Economy, 1H 2017

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1 Charting Russia s Economy, 1H 2017 Designed to help executives interpret economic numbers and incorporate them into company s planning. Publication Date: January 3 rd, 2017 Next Issue: To be published on July 3 rd, 2017

2 HELPING EXECUTIVES AROUND THE WORLD INTERPRET ECONOMIC NUMBERS Argentina Australia Brazil Brunei Cambodia Canada Chile China Hong Kong India Indonesia Laos Malaysia Mexico Myanmar New Zealand Peru Philippines Russia Singapore South Africa South Korea Taiwan Thailand Turkey United Kingdom United States Vietnam

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ECONOMIC PROFILE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Structure Competitiveness Development Growth Stability Russia s economy is the 12th largest in the world, slightly bigger than Australia s Despite its huge area, Russia s population is just above 142 million, slightly higher than Mexico s Russia s demographic structure is unfavorable with shrinking working age group Russia s economy is traditionally service based relying a lot on domestic demand Despite relying less on trade, current Russia s export is highly concentrated on Energy sector In terms of regional GDP, Russia s economy is distributed quite well with most of its 83 regions accounts for less than 2% of GDP. City of Moscow, the capital, accounts for 20% of GDP Economic Structure Part of the country s economic profile, economic structure section gives readers useful views to understand what matters for Russia s economy. 5

4 Russia s economy is the 12 th largest in the world, slightly bigger than Australia s 2015 GDP USD billion, Market Exchange Rate US 18,037 China 11,182 Japan 4,124 Germany 3,365 UK 2,858 ASEAN* 2,433 France 2,420 India 2,073 Italy 1,816 Brazil* 1,773 Canada 1,551 Korea 1,378 Russia 1,326 Australia 1,225 Spain 1,200 Mexico 1,144 Measuring the size of an economy Size of any economy is usually measured by calculating its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a given period of time. To compare GDP internationally, there is a need to convert value in local currencies to one main currency, normally USD. There are two popular exchange rate to be used. The first one is the official exchange rate for that particular period. The second one is the so called Purchasing Power Parity exchange rate, which takes into account the difference in living expenses between countries. The first method is more popular in comparing the size of each economy. Size of Russia s economy Using the market exchange rate method, Russia s GDP is around USD 1,326 billion, 12 th largest in the world (compared only with individual countries). Note: (*) IMF Estimate Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database October

5 Relative to other emerging economies, Russia has advantages in Education, Infrastructure and Technology The Global Competitiveness Index , score = Russia Brazil China India Indonesia South Africa Turkey Vietnam The Global Competitiveness Index The Global Competitiveness Index framework divides competitiveness factors into three groups. The first group is Basic requirements, which includes Public and Private institutions, Infrastructure, Macroeconomic environment and Health and primary education. The second group is Efficiency enhancers, including Higher education and training, goods market efficiency, labor market efficiency, financial market development, technology readiness and market size. The last group is Innovation and sophistication, including business sophistication and innovation. Global Competitiveness Index: Russia and comparable Relative to other emerging economies, Russia has advantages in Education, Infrastructure and Technology. 0 Basic requirement Infrastructure Health and primary education Higher education and training Labor market efficiency Technological readiness Innovation and sophistication Innovation Public and Private institutions Macroeconomic environment Efficiency enhancers Goods market efficiency Source: The Global Competitiveness Report , World Economic Forum Financial market development Market size Business sophistication 17

6 Russia s economic nearly got out of negative territory in 3Q16 Iceland Ireland China Israel Spain Sweden Netherlands Britain Poland United States Euro area Germany Greece Portugal Belgium France Denmark Italy Russia Norway Real GDP growth Year-on-year, 3Q16-0.4% -0.9% Russia s Real GDP growth Year-on-year, last 8 quarters 10.2% 6.9% 6.7% 0.2% 5.0% 3.2% -0.6% -0.4% 2.8% 2.4% -1.2% 2.3% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% -2.8% 1.6% 1.6% -3.7% -3.8% 1.3% 1.1% -4.5% 1.1% 1.0% 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 GDP growth in the latest quarter Real GDP growth in the latest quarter from major economies in the world sorted from highest to lowest. GDP growth for Russia s economy in 3Q16 Russia s economic nearly got out of negative territory in 3Q16. It decreased only 0.4% from the same quarter last year. Source: The Economist, OECD; Charting Economy analysis 32

7 Despite massive decrease, Russia s international reserves can more than cover its short term external debt and import needs International Reserves USD billion Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Short term External Debt % of international reserves 20% % % % % % % 6% 4% 2% 0% 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 Import Cover International reserves as months of import Q14 4Q14 2Q15 4Q15 2Q16 International reserves International reserve assets refer to external assets that are held or controlled by central bank and are readily available for immediate uses, for instance, in financing payment imbalances or in implementing exchange rate policy. External debt External debt refers to the remaining outstanding portion of liabilities (excluding equity) which residents have over nonresidents of an economy. Short-term external debt should not exceed the country s international reserves. Import Cover Ratio of the country s international reserves to the average value of its import of goods and services per month. A country should be able to cover at least 3 months of Import. Russia s International Liquidity Following from massive capital flight, Russia s International reserves have decreased significantly in However, it has stabilized in 2015 and is considered adequate to cover the country s short-term external debt and import needs. Source: IMF, OECD; Charting Economy analysis 44

8 It s easier to start a business in Russia than in the US Starting a business rank Cost - Paid-in min. Procedure - Cost - Men Procedure - Time - Time - Men Women (% capital (% of Economy Rank DTF* Men (% of income Women Women (days) of income income per (number) per capita) (number) (days) per capita) capita) New Zealand Canada Hong Kong SAR, China Singapore Australia United Kingdom Russian Federation France Israel United States Italy Turkey Japan Iran, Islamic Rep Germany South Africa Indonesia Brazil Central African Republic Panama Starting a Business This topic measures the paid-in minimum capital requirement, number of procedures, time and cost for a small- to medium-sized limited liability company to start up and formally operate. To make the data comparable across 190 economies, Doing Business uses a standardized business that is 100% domestically owned, has start-up capital equivalent to 10 times income per capita, engages in general industrial or commercial activities and employs between 10 and 50 people one month after the commencement of operations, all of whom are domestic nationals. The most recent round of data collection for the project was completed in June Starting a Business in Russia It s easier to start a business in Russia than in the US. Note: (*) An economy s distance to frontier score is indicated on a scale from 0 to 100, where 0 represents the worst performance and 100 the frontier Source: Doing Business

9 I d SUBSCRIPTION ORDER FORM Complete the steps below or do it online at like to order the following package(s) ASIAPAC Australia 1H2017 USD 99 China 1H2017 USD 99 Hong Kong 1H2017 USD 99 India 1H2017 USD 99 New Zealand 1H2017 USD 99 South Korea 1H2017 USD 99 Taiwan 1H2017 USD 99 AUS & NZ 1H2017 USD 139 China HK Taiwan 1H2017 USD 189 AMERICA Argentina 1H2017 USD 99 Brazil 1H2017 USD 99 Canada 1H2017 USD 99 Chile 1H2017 USD 99 Mexico 1H2017 USD 99 Peru 1H2017 USD 99 United States 1H2017 USD 99 LATAM5 1H2017* USD 319 ASEAN Brunei 1H2017 USD 99 Cambodia 1H2017 USD 99 Indonesia 1H2017 USD 99 Laos 1H2017 USD 99 Malaysia 1H2017 USD 99 Myanmar 1H2017 USD 99 Philippines 1H2017 USD 99 Singapore 1H2017 USD 99 Thailand 1H2017 USD 99 Vietnam 1H2017 USD 99 CLMB 1H2017** USD 239 ASEAN6 1H2017*** USD 379 OTHERS Russia 1H2017 USD 99 South Africa 1H2017 USD 99 Turkey 1H2017 USD 99 United Kingdom 1H2017 USD 99 BRIC 1H2017**** USD 249 Please invoice me using the details below We accept credit card / Paypal / bank transfer. More details on the payment will be provided in the invoice. Scan Save 20% When order 2 or more individual-country reports Name : Company : Address : Country : Signature : and return this form to It s easier to fill this form online, go to Note: (*) Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru; (**) Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Brunei (***) Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Philippines and Vietnam; (****) Brazil, Russia, India and China Charting Economy Helping Executives Interpret Economic Numbers Managed by Chart Maker Co., Ltd. (registered no ) 19 Moo 11, Lamlukka rd., Lamlukka district, Pathumthani, Thailand 12150

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