Parti Quebecois headed for majority as writ drops

Transcription

1 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Parti Quebecois headed for majority as writ drops Liberals and PQ still in dead heat on popular vote Toronto, August 2 nd, 2012 In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among Quebeckers 18 years of age and older on the day the election writ dropped in the province, close to 4-in-10 would vote for either the Parti Quebecois (39%) or the Liberals (38%), but seat projections based on these results have the PQ winning a 5 seat majority in the National Assembly. With the Liberals and the PQ essentially splitting the lion's share of the vote, just 1-in-7 say they will support the CAQ (14%) and fewer than one twentieth would support any other party (QS - 4%, Green - 3%). Support for PQ was significantly higher among those under the age of 65 (46% 18-34, 42% 35-44, 39% 45-54, 39% 55 to 64, and 31% 65+), females (43%; compared to 35% of males), s (43%), and those residing in North and South Shore (44% each). The Liberal party saw strongest support among older Quebecers (26% 18-34, 31% 35-44, 36% 45-54, 42% 55 to 64, and 53% 65+), and non-s (73%). s were also significantly more likely to back the CAQ and QS parties when compared to non-s (16%, 5%; compared to 5%, 3%). PQ to form majority government Taking in to account margin for error, these voting intention results if they hold on Election Day - would see the PQ capture 65 seats in the 125 seat National Assembly, up from 60 in May, and up from the 51 they took at the last election. This would represent a 5 seat majority over the Liberals (54 seats, down from 57 in May and well down from the 66 taken in the election). The CAQ would take 5 seats and the QS 1. Marois', Charest's favourables up, Legault's down Premier Jean Charest has an approval rating of 33%, up slightly from 30% in May. His net approval (approve minus disapprove) is an abysmal -27. By contrast, Pauline Marois' favourables are at 37%, up slightly from 35% in May, and her net favourable is -14. Francois Legault has an approval score of 30%, down from 35% in May, and his net stands at -14, similar to Mme Marois'. Marois had significantly higher approval ratings from Quebecers when compared to non-s (40%; compared to 16%), and those residing in the North Shore region (42%). Marois also enjoys approval of nearly 8-of-10 who would back the PQ on September 4 th (78%). 1 HIGHLIGHTS: Close to 4-in-10 would vote for either the Parti Quebecois (39%) or the Liberals (38%), but seat projections based on these results have the PQ winning a 5 seat majority in the National Assembly. Taking in to account margin for error, these voting intention results if they hold on Election Day - would see the PQ capture 65 seats in the 125 seat National Assembly, up from 60 in May, and up from the 51 they took at the last election. Premier Jean Charest has an approval rating of 33%, up slightly from 30% in May. His net approval (approve minus disapprove) is an abysmal By contrast, Pauline Marois' favourables are at 37%, up slightly from 35% in May, and her net favourable is -14. Francois Legault has an approval score of 30%, down from 35% in May, and his net stands at -14, similar to Mme Marois'.

2 Jean Charest, with little surprise, saw stronger approval ratings from older Quebecers (21% 18-34, 32% 35-44, 32% 45-54, 37% 55 to 64, and 47% 65+), and non-s (54%). Over 8-of-10 current Liberal backers approve of the job he is doing as premier. Legault saw higher approval ratings among male Quebecers (34%), and s (32%), with roughly 3-of-4 who would vote CAQ in the upcoming provincial election approving of the job he is doing as leader of the party (76%). Two thirds want this election Two thirds of Quebeckers say it is time for an election in the province (68%), compared toi just one quarter who disagree (26%). Those who speak English and vote Liberal are least eager for an election. Quebecers under the age of 34 were significantly more likely to think an election should be held (77% 18-34, 67% 35-44, 63% 45-54, 67% 55 to 64, and 63% 65+), as were males (72%; compared to 64% of females), and s (71%; compared to 53% of non-s). PQ, QS have advantage in voting enthusiasm Supporters of the PQ and QS are more about voting their parties (54% very each) than are either Liberals (42%), CAQ supporters (34%) or Greens (37%). Support for students down Four-in-ten of those polled support the government's position in the current student dispute (40%) and this is steady since May (40%). Those supporting the students, however, have declined from 36% in May to 33% now. Support for the students was significantly higher among younger Quebecers, as one might expect (47% 18-34, 31% 35-44, 30% 45-54, 25% 55 to 64, and 28% 65+), and was also higher among those with a lower household income (40% <$20K, 36% $20K-$40K, 33% $40K-$60K, 33% $60K- $80K, 29% $80K-$100K, and 32% $100K+). Quebecers were also significantly more likely to back the students in the ongoing dispute (35%; compared to 26% of non-s). Males were significantly more likely to side with the government (44%; compared to 35% of females), as were current Liberal backers (80%). HIGHLIGHTS: Two thirds of Quebeckers say it is time for an election in the province (68%), compared toi just one quarter who disagree (26%). Those who speak English and vote Liberal are least eager for an election. Supporters of the PQ and QS are more about voting their parties (54% very each) than are either Liberals (42%), CAQ supporters (34%) or Greens (37%). Four-in-ten of those polled support the government's position in the current student dispute (40%) and this is steady since May (40%). Those supporting the students, however, have declined from 36% in May to 33% now. 2

3 Half disagree students have legitimate grievances Close to half of those polled do not agree the striking students have legitimate grievances (46%), compared to one third who think they do (36%), this represents a decline in the proportion siding with the students from 39% in April. Older Quebecers were significantly more likely to disagree that the students have a legitimate grievance (35% 18-34, 45% 35-44, 47% 45-54, 56% 55 to 64, and 55% 65+), as were males (50%; compared to 43% of females), s (57%; compared to 45% of non-s), and those who would vote Liberal on September 4 th (79%). Those residing in Quebec City were also significantly more likely to think so (56%). Federal NDP with commanding lead in Quebec If a federal election were held today, one third would support the NDP (32%), compared to one quarter who would support the Bloc Quebecois (23%). Fewer than one-in-five would support either the Conservatives (14%) or Liberals (18%). The Green Party would be supported by 1-in-25 (4%). Support for the NDP was stronger among younger Quebecers (38% 18-34, 38% 35-44, 33% 45-54, 36% 55 to 64, and 27% 65+), those with a higher household income (28% <$20K, 29% $20K-$40K, 37% $40K-$60K, 35% $60K- $80K, 43% $80K-$100K, and 38% $100K+), and those residing in Montreal (40%). Bloc Quebecois was most popular among younger Quebecers (33% 18-34, 24% 35-44, 24% 45-54, 24% 55 to 64, and 18% 65+), and s (27%; compared to 6% of non-s). Both federal Liberal and Conservative parties saw strongest support from those over the age of 65 in Quebec (27%, 23%; compared to 19%, 15% average). "Like Mark Twain said, the prospect of a hanging always concentrates a man's mind wonderfully. In this case dropping the writ has allowed the electorate to crystallize their views and they seem to be crystallizing around a PQ majority" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. HIGHLIGHTS: Close to half of those polled do not agree the striking students have legitimate grievances (46%), compared to one third who think they do (36%), this represents a decline in the proportion siding with the students from 39% in April. If a federal election were held today, one third would support the NDP (32%), compared to one quarter who would support the Bloc Quebecois (23%). Fewer than one-in-five would support either the Conservatives (14%) or Liberals (18%). The Green Party would be supported by 1-in-25 (4%). "Like Mark Twain said, the prospect of a hanging always concentrates a man's mind wonderfully. In this case dropping the writ has allowed the electorate to crystallize their views and they seem to be crystallizing around a PQ majority" said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. 3

4 Methodology The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1617 randomly selected residents of Quebec aged 18 or older. The poll was conducted on August 1 st, Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 2.44%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian-owned Forum Research is one of the country s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at Provincial Election Voting Preference Trending % Liberal PQ CAQ QS ADQ Green Other August 1 st, 2012 (n=1509) May 17 th, 2012 (n=1269) May 15 th, 2012 (n=2164) April 24th, 2012 (n=918) April 10th, 2012 (n=1493) March 21st, 2012 (n=1518) February 23rd, 2012 (n=1519) Election Provincial Party Leader Approval Trending (% Approve) 4 % Charest Legault Marois August 1 st, 2012 (n=1617) May 17 th, 2012 (n=1269) May 15 th, 2012 (n=2245) April 24th, 2012 (n=960) April 10th, 2012 (n=1565) March 21st, 2012 (n=1603) February 23rd, 2012 (n=1589)

5 Seat Distribution % Liberal PQ CAQ QS ADQ ON ION August 1 st, May 17 th, May 15 th, April 24th, April 10th, March 21st, February 23rd, Current Distribution Election Direction of Support in the Current Tuition Fee Dispute % The The Students Government Neither Don t know August 1 st, 2012 (n=1617) May 17 th, 2012 (n=1319) May 15 th, 2012 (n=2245) April 24th, 2012 (n=960) April 10th, 2012 (n=1565) March 21st, 2012 (n=1603)

6 Provincial Election Voting Preference If a Quebec provincial election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? [Decided / Leaning] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Liberal Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Other Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Liberal Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Other

7 Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Liberal Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Other

8 Jean Charest Approval Rating as Premier Do you approve or disapprove of the job Jean Charest is doing as premier? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know

9 Pauline Marois Approval Rating as Leader of the Opposition Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pauline Marois is doing as Leader of the Opposition? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know

10 Francois Legault Approval Rating as Leader of the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) Do you approve or disapprove of the job Francois Legault is doing as Leader of the Coalition Avenir Quebec or CAQ? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample Approve Disapprove Don t know

11 Election Opinion Do you think an election should be held in Quebec now or not? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Think an election should be held Don't think an election should be held Don't know Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Think an election should be held Don't think an election should be held Don't know Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Think an election should be held Don't think an election should be held Don't know

12 Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample Think an election should be held Don't think an election should be held Don't know

13 Provincial Election Party Vote Enthusiasm How are you about voting for your party in the upcoming provincial election? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Very Somewhat Not very Not at all Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Very Somewhat Not very Not at all Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Very Somewhat Not very Not at all

14 Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample Very Somewhat Not very Not at all

15 Direction of Support in the Current Tuition Fee Dispute In the current tuition fee dispute, who do you support, the students or the provincial government or neither? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample The students The government Neither Don t know Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample The students The government Neither Don t know Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample The students The government Neither Don t know

16 Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample The students The government Neither Don t know

17 Student Grievance Legitimacy Do you agree or disagree the students who are striking have legitimate grievances? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Agree Disagree Don't know Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Agree Disagree Don't know Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Agree Disagree Don't know Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample Agree Disagree Don't know

18 Federal Party Preference Now a question about federal politics. If the federal election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for? + Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time? [Decided/Leaning] Age / Gender % Total Male Female Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other Region / Language % Total Mon QC N S Non Shore Shore Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other Household Income % Total <20K 20-40K 40-60K 60-80K K 100K+ Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other

19 Current Provincial Party Preference % Total Lib PQ CAQ QS PVQ Other Sample Conservative Liberal New Democratic Green Bloc Quebecois Other For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) Fax: (416) lbozinoff@ 19