Climate Change and Rice Production. Tran Dang Hoa Faculty of Agronomy Hue University of Agriculture and Forestry Vietnam

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1 Climate Change and Rice Production Tran Dang Hoa Faculty of Agronomy Hue University of Agriculture and Forestry Vietnam

2 4 millions ha Main regions: - Red river delta - Central - Mekong delta

3 Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice Production

4 Climate change in Vietnam Sea level rises cm/ 10 years in the last century

5 Vietnam sea level rise (SLR, cm) as compared with Scenarios Emission B1 Low B2 Medium A2 High

6 Red river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m

7 Mekong river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m

8 Temperature increase 23.0 O C Annual temperature Average temperature increase C/10 years. Average temperature of some months in summer is increase C/ 10 years Year Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi station.

9 Vietnam Temperature increased as compared with Scenarios T(0C) A2 B1 High Increase Low Increase

10 5000 mm Rainfall of Aug.-Dec. Rainfall is decrease in dry season, but increase in raining season. Heavy raining causes strong flood frequently Year Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-December rainfall at A Luoi station.

11 Typhoon - Non rule - moves to the south.

12 Action plan on rice production Mitigation/Adaptation Climate change mitigation is any action taken to permanently eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life or property Climate change adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.

13 Mitigation GHG from Agriculture 2050, GHG from agriculture will be increased 30% FAO, April 11, 2014

14 Climate Change Mitigation within the rice agricultural sector Agriculture causes about 25 % global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, % of CH 4, and 90 % of N 2 O emissions Rice paddies contributing about 12% to global CH 4 emissions (second largest after cattle livestock) Global Warming Potential (GWP): CH 4 25 times higher than CO 2 N 2 O 298 times higher than CO 2

15 Rice varieties Fertilizer Water management (modified)

16 GHG from Agriculture sectors in Vietnam (MONRE, 2000) CO2 Equ (MT) % Rice Field Live stock ( Fermentation &Manure) Soils Burning field Crops Residues Burning Total 100

17 GHG experiments on paddy fields Hue province MIRSA project 2014 Quang Nam province LUCCi project 6 seasons

18 Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) 10 Field water depth (Cm) soil surface flowering CF AWD transp Early Late PI to complete grain Maturity recovery tillering tillering flowering filling DAT

19 Safe AWD: - 15 cm

20 Applying nutrients as and when needed Adjusting nutrient application to crop needs in given location and season A standardized leaf color chart (LCC) Site-specific nutrient management

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22 Gas analysis GC: SRI 8610C GC setting, 2011

23 LUCCi project Yield ton ha a CF a AWD a a Yield ton ha a a CF AWD a a Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Summer Autumn Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Winter - Spring No difference in yield of different water management practices

24 GMP ton ha CF 41.9% reduction AWD 44.3% reduction GWP ton ha CF AWD 33.6 % reduction 31 % reduction Summer - Autumn 2011 Dai Loc Winter - Spring Summer - Autumn 2011 Winter - Spring Nam Phuoc Global Warm Potential

25 MIRSA project ton ha -1 Potential yield Grain yield 10 a 8 b b 6 A A A CF ADW AWDS Treatment Yield (ton/ha)

26 CH4 mg m -2 d Methane fluxes CF AWD AWDS Daily average water level (mm) DAS

27 N2O mg m -2 d MDL N applied Nitrous oxide fluxes CF AWD AWDS N applied Daily average water level (mm) DAS

28 Seasonal cumulative gas emission CH4 kg ha -1 N 2 O kg ha days days % reduction 15% reduction MDL CF AWD AWDS 2.50 CF AWD AWDS CH4 N 2 O

29 Adaptation: IRRI projects Aerobic rice system Treat rice like any other (irrigated) crop: No puddling, no standing water, aerobic soil

30 Salinity tolerance variety

31 Cropping System & Management in coastal zones Salinity control + irrigation water Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Salinity Winter Spring Summer Autumn Autumn Winter Grav IrriPump Irrigation River W Rver+St Wat Rainfed Grav Irrig River water Salinity control; no irrigation water Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source P irri St W Salinity Summer Autumn Autumn Winter Leaching Rainfed Grav Irrig P Irr River Wat St W No salinity control Calendar 1 Calendar 2 Salinity Brackish water Shrimp Main season rainfed rice Main season rainfed rice = Land preparation Grav Irrig = gravity irrigation P Irrig = Pump irrigation St Wa = Stored Water

32 Saline period Low/non-saline Prepar ation Shrimp Rice Leaching Wat Stor DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

33 Sensitivity to Heat Stress LOW HIGH MEDIUM Leaf, tiller and root development Panicle development Pollination Grain filling

34 Seasonal calendar Rice Crop 50 Temperature( o C) MAXIMUM MINIMUM JAN FEB MAR APR MAY Vegetative JUN JUL AUG Flowering Grain Filling SEP OCT NOV DEC

35 Conclusion Climate Change Mitigation: Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms of Water use Fertilizer uptake Harvest index

36 Adaptation: Rice systems have to become more resilient to Drought Submergence Salinity Heat waves By Germplasm development Crop management Cropping system Resource management and Structures

37 QUESTION to Restructure Program Sources Measures Need - Too much water used for rice - Too low efficiency of inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, waters) - Soil degradation - Low C-soil sink - Increase GHG - Saving water=> precision irrigation system - Changes the way of rice cultivation (less input. less water uses.=> high efficiency.) - Re-use rice/ crop residues; mulching/ Bio-char/ Min tillage - Added values for all agriculture products & by products - N e w Technology - New behaviors - Precision agriculture - C-sequence

38 - Low comparative productivity - Uncertainly income - Replace Rice by other crops with reversible ways - Added values for all Rice products & by products - New techniques? - Multiple cropping - Investment - New Marketing Approach

39 - Sea level rise - Weather uncertainty - Salinity - Drought/ - Flooding - Heat/cool - Physical and biological ways - Inter-field damps - Multiple cropping - Mixed cropping - Modelling - New behaviors - Good prediction - Good investment design - Useful Information/data

40 Thanks for your attention