Northern Virginia Park & Ride Lot Feasibility Study

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1 Northern Virginia Park & Ride Lot Feasibility Study Final Report Prepared for: Virginia Department of Transportation Northern Virginia District Prepared by: BMI 8330 Boone Blvd., Suite 700 Vienna, VA April 2003

2 Northern Virginia Park & Ride Lot Feasibility Study Final Report PREPARED FOR: VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Northern Virginia District Transportation Planning Section PREPARED BY: with Burgess & Niple, Inc. Fitzgerald & Halliday, Inc. April 2003 The contents of this report reflect the view of the author(s) who are responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Federal Highway Administration or the Commonwealth Transportation Board. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation.

3 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMMARY...iii Page 1. INTRODUCTION Study Purpose Study Process and Coordination Report Organization BASELINE ASSESSMENT Park and Ride Lot Database Inputs to VDOT Web Site FUTURE PARK AND RIDE LOT DEMAND Demand Methodology...22 Procedure I...22 Procedure II Future Park and Ride Lot Demand IDENTIFICATION OF PARK AND RIDE LOT NEEDS Statistical Analysis Needs Analysis Subareas Identified for New Park and Ride Lots SITE EVALUATION Purcellville Engineer Proving Ground (EPG) Route 234 Bypass / I US Route 1 / Route Minnieville Road / Caton Hill Road Telegraph Road Gainesville Site Evaluation Summary Implementation Plan...43 APPENDIX A PARK AND RIDE LOT UTILIZATION DATA APPENDIX B. BUS BOARDING DATA APPENDIX C. EXISTING LOTS BY SUBAREA APPENDIX D. PURCELLVILLE PARK AND RIDE LOT CONCEPT APPENDIX E. EPG PARK AND RIDE LOT CONCEPT APPENDIX F. ROUTE 234 BYPASS / I-66 PARK AND RIDE LOT CONCEPT APPENDIX G. MINNIEVILLE ROAD / CATON HILL ROAD PARK AND RIDE LOT CONCEPT APPENDIX H. TELEGRAPH ROAD PARK AND RIDE LOT CONCEPT APPENDIX I. GAINESVILLE PARK AND RIDE LOT CONCEPT i

4 Figure LIST OF FIGURES Page E-1 Study Area... iv E-2 Potential New Park and Ride Lots... ix 1. Study Area Fairfax County, Arlington County, and Alexandria Park and Ride Lots Prince William County Park and Ride Lots Loudoun County Park and Ride Lots Park and Ride Lot Demand Methodology Subarea Boundaries Subareas Requiring Additional Park and Ride Lot Capacity Potential Purcellville Park and Ride Lot Location Potential Park and Ride Lots in Dale City / Woodbridge and Springfield Potential Park and Ride Lots in Gainesville and Manassas Potential New Park and Ride Lots...42 Table LIST OF TABLES Page E-1 Summary of 2001 Jurisdiction Park and Ride Lot Capacity and Percent Utilization v E-2 Future Subarea Needs... vi E-3 Size and Cost Estimates for Potential Park and Ride Lots...viii 1. Park and Ride Lot Data: Amenities Park and Ride Lot Data: Capacities and Usage Park and Ride Lot Utilization by Corridor Park and Ride Lot Utilization by Jurisdiction Summary of 2001 Jurisdiction Park and Ride Lot Capacity and Percent Utilization Future Park and Ride Lot Demand by Subarea of Origin Subarea Demand vs. Supply Funded or Recently Completed Park and Ride Lot Projects in the Subareas Future Subarea Needs Site Evaluation Matrix ii

5 Executive Summary

6 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Study Purpose The Northern Virginia District Transportation Planning Section of the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) undertook this study to evaluate park and ride facilities throughout the District and develop a plan to identify and address existing and future needs. The study was conducted in coordination with staffs from Fairfax, Arlington, Prince William and Fairfax Counties, as well as staff from WMATA. The findings of this study will assist State and local governments in the programming of potential park and ride sites in Northern Virginia. The Northern Virginia region is home to one of the most successful and well-utilized HOV facility systems in the United States. As an example, data from a recent VDOT study (I-95/I- 395 HOV Restriction Study, 1999) showed that over 80% of the person trips approaching the Capital Beltway in the I-95 corridor and destined to the Arlington and Washington D.C. core area during the AM peak period are using either HOV or transit modes. Similarly, HOV facilities on I-66, the Dulles Toll Road, US Route 1 in Alexandria and other arterials in the Northern Virginia District provide a viable alternative to low occupant vehicle travel. Park and ride facilities are a critical supporting element to successful HOV facilities. This study was initiated by VDOT to support planning efforts aimed at improving the park and ride system, thereby enhancing the existing and planned Northern Virginia District HOV system, as shown in Figure E-1. Park and ride lots that are exclusive to Metrorail and VRE users were not included in this analysis. Assessment of Existing Park and Ride Lot System The baseline assessment of the Northern Virginia District park and ride lot system included two primary activities: 1) creation of a comprehensive park and ride lot database and 2) creation of internet-ready text and graphics for use on VDOT s web site. An extensive field data collection program was undertaken in early 2001 that included compilation of the following data elements for each of seventy-nine separate park and ride lots in the Northern Virginia District: Lot amenities Lot capacity and utilization License plates of Virginia-registered vehicles (used to identify origins of current lot users) Table E-1 presents a summary of park and ride lot capacity and utilization for each jurisdiction. One of the objectives of the baseline assessment was to provide information that could be communicated to the public to support VDOT s marketing and promotion of carpool, vanpool iii

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8 and transit use in the major HOV corridors. Following completion of the data collection program, separate web pages were created for each park and ride lot for integration into VDOT s web site. Table E-1. Summary of 2001 Jurisdiction Park and Ride Lot Capacity and Percent Utilization Jurisdiction Total P&R Lot Capacity % P&R Lot Utilization Arlington County % City of Fairfax % Fairfax County 7, % Loudoun County 1, % Prince William County 7, % Future Park and Ride Lot Demand Total 17,326 54% A key component of this study was to project future demand for park and ride facilities located within the Northern Virginia District. The demand methodology and subsequent needs analysis focused only on those park and ride lots oriented to the major HOV corridors and did not examine other lots, such as those at rail stations. This distinction was made due to the different characteristics of users of free public park and ride lots oriented to HOV facilities vs. parking at rail station lots and the fact that different funding sources are used for the two types of lots. The demand analysis focused on five of the commuter corridors and the roads that feed into them within the Northern Virginia District that provide access to HOV facilities: 1. I-95 - Prince William/Stafford County Line to Capital Beltway 2. US 1 - Prince William/Stafford County Line to Capital Beltway 3. I-66 - Prince William/Fauquier County Line to Capital Beltway 4. VA 7/Greenway/Dulles Toll Road Loudoun/Clarke County Line to Capital Beltway (Dulles Toll Road VA 28 to Capital Beltway, baseline assessment only) 5. Fairfax County Parkway US 1 to VA 7 Two separate demand projection procedures were applied independently with the results compared and reconciled to produce a final set of demand projections. The reconciled projections were used to identify preferred areas for additional park and ride lot capacity to serve future projected demand. Northern Virginia District park and ride lot demand is projected to increase by approximately 50% by the year The 2020 forecasts show a growth in demand of approximately 45% in the I-66 and I-95 corridors, while the Route 7 and Route 1 corridors are projected to exhibit higher percentages of demand growth. v

9 Identification of Park and Ride Lot Needs In order to identify areas in need of additional park and ride lot capacity, a statistical analysis of lot attributes and usage was conducted to determine those lot attributes that have the strongest correlation to lot usage. The results of this analysis provided useful information toward an understanding of why particular lots were underutilized and where potential new lots should be located. The results of the statistical tests showed that only three lot attributes met the criteria for finding a correlation: 1. Presence of lighting, 2. Presence of bus service, and 3. Direct HOV access. In addition to understanding the attributes that encourage park and ride lot utilization, subarea demand projections were examined and compared with existing and programmed supply to help identify subareas within the Northern Virginia District where additional park and ride lot capacity may be needed. Table E-2 presents a summary of the subareas in which additional park and ride lot capacity was found to be needed in the future, along with the reasons for their selection and specific areas where new lot capacity would be most beneficial. Table E-2. Future Subarea Needs Subarea Year # of spaces* Leesburg Total Reason Demand growth due to population growth and planned expansion of bus service. Springfield Significant number of existing spaces are in leased/ shared use lots, which are less preferable than public-owned lots. Centreville Imbalance in utilization of lots near VA 28 and US 29 vs. park and proffered lots. Dumfries Total Dale City Woodbridge Total Demand growth due to population growth to the south. Demand growth due to local population growth and projected I-95/I-395 congestion levels. Best Areas for New Lots Near the VA7 / US 15 overlap (Leesburg Bypass) and the north end of the airport. Close proximity to I-95, Fairfax County Parkway and/or Franconia- Springfield Parkway. Along VA 28 near US 29 and along US 29 west of VA 28. Along VA 234 near I-95 and near Triangle. Between Minnieville Road and US 1, with access to major arteries. vi

10 Table E-2. Future Subarea Needs (continued) Subarea Year # of spaces* Reason Gainesville Permanent lot preferred to accommodate potential demand growth associated with planned I-66 HOV extension. Mt. Vernon Permanent lot preferred to accommodate potential demand growth associated with planned U.S. Route 1 HOV lane extension. *Needs estimates rounded to nearest 50 Best Areas for New Lots Close proximity to I-66 interchange at US Route 29. Adjacent to US Route 1 near planned terminus of HOV lane extension at VA 235. Following a review of this list by the local jurisdictions, Loudoun County indicated that they were initiating an evaluation of potential new lot locations in the Leesburg area. Accordingly, they communicated a desire to have this study investigate potential locations for a new park and ride lot in the Purcellville area, in lieu of further investigations in the Leesburg area. Investigation of a potential new lot in the Mt. Vernon subarea along US Route 1 should be undertaken upon completion of the ongoing VDOT US Route 1 Location Study. Potential New Park and Ride Lots Projected park and ride lot needs, and the subareas in which additional capacity is needed, were communicated to the local jurisdiction members of the study team. Following receipt of comments from the local jurisdictions and VDOT, seven potential sites were identified for evaluation using the following criteria: 1. Site access 2. Proximity to the HOV system 3. Proximity to major roads and highways 4. Transit service potential 5. User demand 6. Size and expansion potential 7. Land and lease acquisition 8. Land use and zoning 9. Safety and security 10. Community impacts These seven new park and ride lot sites, which are shown in Figure E-2, were also evaluated in terms of potential capacity and cost to construct. Table E-3 summarizes the potential capacity and preliminary construction cost estimate of each proposed lot. A comparison of Tables E-2 and E-3 shows that the capacity of the potential park and ride lots exceeds the identified need. This is due to: 1) potential lot parcels were not vii

11 subdivided and 2) additional capacity beyond estimated need could be used to replace existing leased lots. Table E-3. Size and Cost Estimates for Potential Park and Ride Lots LOT NUMBER SPACES PRELIMINARY CONSTRUCTION COST ESTIMATE*** Purcellville 233 $610,000 Engineer Proving Ground 884 $1,660,000 (EPG) Route 234 Bypass/I $1,050,000 US 1/Route 234* 438 Not estimated in this study Minnieville Road/Caton 951 $2,300,000 Hill Road Telegraph Road 835 $1,550,000 Gainesville** 402 $770,000 * This lot replaces the existing lot on Route 234, which has 355 spaces. Construction costs were not estimated as part of this study. ** Gainesville lot will be constructed in two phases. The number of spaces and cost shown represent the ultimate buildout phase. *** Preliminary construction cost estimate (basic elements only) does not include costs of lot amenities, stormwater management, utilities adjustment, off-site improvements, or other lot amenities. Preliminary cost estimate for Gainesville lot does not include right-of-way cost. Implementation Plan Short Term ~ 2005 Purcellville Leesburg (County Investigation) Route 234 Bypass / I-66 US 1 / Route 234 Backlick North Backlick South Gambrill Road Mid Term ~ 2010 Engineer Proving Ground (EPG) Gainesville Minnieville Road / Caton Hill Road Telegraph Road Long Term ~ 2020 Route 1 Mt. Vernon Currently Under Design viii

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13 1. Introduction

14 1.0 Introduction The Northern Virginia (NOVA) District Transportation Planning Section of the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) undertook this study to evaluate park and ride facilities throughout the District and develop a plan to identify and address existing and future needs. Results of this study are intended to help VDOT and local jurisdictions plan, program and design additional park and ride facilities to meet the future short and long term requirements. 1.1 Study Purpose The Northern Virginia region is home to one of the most successful and well-utilized HOV facility systems in the United States. As an example, data from a recent VDOT study (I-95/I- 395 HOV Restriction Study, 1999) showed that over 80% of the person trips approaching the Capital Beltway in the I-95 corridor and destined to the Arlington and Washington D.C. core area during the AM peak period are using either HOV or transit modes. Similarly, HOV facilities on I-66, the Dulles Toll Road, US Route 1 in Alexandria and other arterials in the Northern Virginia District provide a viable alternative to low occupant vehicle travel. Park and ride facilities are a critical supporting element to successful HOV facilities. This study was undertaken by VDOT to support planning efforts aimed at improving the park and ride system, thereby enhancing the existing and planned Northern Virginia District HOV system, which is shown in Figure 1. Specific products that addressed the purpose of this study included the following: 1. Comprehensive assessment of the NOVA District s park and ride lot system. 2. Web pages for use in the VDOT website. 3. Projection of park and ride lot demand and needs for short and long term planning horizons. 4. Evaluation of specific locations for new park and ride lots. 5. Conceptual plans and preliminary construction cost estimates for potential new park and ride lots. 1.2 Study Process and Coordination VDOT assembled representatives from local jurisdictions and agencies into a study team to provide input and feedback to the study. These representatives included staff from local jurisdictions and transit agencies that were part of the Transportation Coordinating Council (TCC) Technical Committee and staff from MWCOG. The scope of the study was shared with the TCC Technical Committee and the study team was also invited to attend the kick-off meeting for the study. Meetings were held and study findings and results were shared throughout the study at key milestones. Local jurisdictions provided feedback on the study methodology and played a critical support role in the study process. 1

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16 1.3 Report Organization This report is organized as follows: Section 2 describes the baseline assessment and summarizes the results. Section 3 documents the demand methodology that was employed to develop projections of park and ride lot demand. Summaries of 2005, 2010 and 2020 demand are also presented. Section 4 describes the technical process by which preferred areas were identified for potential new park and ride lots. A summary of these areas and park and ride lot needs in each area is also provided. Section 5 documents the site evaluation process and results. The following Appendices are provided: Appendix A Park and Ride Lot Utilization Data Appendix B. Bus Boarding Data Appendix C. Existing Lots by Subarea Appendix D. Purcellville Park and Ride Lot Concept Appendix E. EPG Park and Ride Lot Concept Appendix F. Route 234 Bypass / I-66 Park and Ride Lot Concept Appendix G. Minnieville Road / Caton Hill Road Park and Ride Lot Concept Appendix H. Telegraph Road Park and Ride Lot Concept Appendix I. Gainesville Park and Ride Lot Concept 3

17 2. Baseline Assessment

18 2.0 Baseline Assessment The baseline assessment of the Northern Virginia District park and ride lot system included two primary activities: 1) creation of a comprehensive park and ride lot database and 2) creation of internet-ready text and graphics for use on VDOT s web site. 2.1 Park and Ride Lot Database An extensive field data collection program was undertaken in early 2001 that included compilation of the following data elements for each of seventy-nine separate park and ride lots in the Northern Virginia District: Lot amenities Lot capacity and utilization License plates of Virginia-registered vehicles (used to identify origins of current lot users) Figures 2, 3, and 4 show the locations of the park and ride lots in each jurisdiction. Lot Amenities The following lot amenities were inventoried and included in the park and ride lot database: 1. Phones - presence of phones within the lot 2. Lights presence of lighting within the lot 3. Bus Stop presence of bus stops within or adjacent to the lot 4. Bus Shelter - presence of bus shelters within or adjacent to the lot 5. Bike Racks presence of bike racks within the lot 6. Sidewalks presence of sidewalks leading to each lot 7. Trail Access - presence of trails in close proximity to each lot 8. HOV Access access to HOV facility within one-quarter mile of the lot 9. Distance to HOV distance in miles to a freeway HOV facility Table 1 presents the lot amenities for each of the park and ride lots. The lot numbers correspond to the lot numbers shown in Figures 2 through 4. Lot Capacity and Utilization Lot capacity and utilization were inventoried at each of the seventy-nine park and ride lots. This data was collected on normal, non-holiday Tuesdays, Wednesdays or Thursdays between the hours of 10:30 AM and 2:30 PM. The results were compared to existing databases and a small number of the lots were re-visited to ensure the accuracy of the database. Table 2 presents the capacity and utilization data. As shown, capacity and utilization were recorded for handicapped parking spaces as well. It should be noted that handicapped (HC) capacity and utilization is included in the overall capacity and utilization columns. The corridor, jurisdiction, owner and data collection date are also shown for each lot. 4

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22 Table 1. Park and Ride Lot Data: Amenities Lot # Lot Name Phone Lights Bus Stop Bus Shelter Bike Racks Sidewalks Trail Access HOV Access Dist. to HOV 01 Triangle 0 mi. 02 US1/VA mi. Cars parked illegally. 03 Brittany Neighborhood Park 1 mi. 04 Montclair Commuter Lot 1 mi. 05 Princedale at Northton 6 mi. 06 Lindendale Commuter Lot 6 mi. 07 Dale Blvd 5 mi. 08 Hillendale Commuter Lot 5 mi. 09 Dale City Commuter Lot 4 mi. 10 Cloverdale Model Home Lot 2 mi. 11 Dale Blvd 2 mi. 12 K-Mart, Dale City 0 mi. 13 Prince William County Stadium 6 mi. 14 Old Bridge Festival Shopping Center 4 mi. 15 Bethel United Methodist Church 3 mi. 16 Christ Chapel 2 mi. 17 Prince William Square 0 mi. 18 PRTC Transit Center 0 mi. 19 Potomac Mills Mall 0 mi. 20 Prince William Parkway 0 mi. Formerly "Horner Road Lot"/capacity does not include 325 spaces added in Summer Church of the Brethren 1 mi. 22 Harbor Drive 3 mi. 23 Tackett's Mill Specialty Center 3 mi. 24 Lake Ridge Commuter Lot 3 mi. 25 Hechinger's - Old Bridge 0 mi. 26 I-95/123 Loop Interchange 0 mi. 27 South Run District Park 5 mi. 28 Rolling Valley 5 mi. Ownership: 50% VDOT/50% County 29 Sydenstricker Road 3 mi. 30 Springfield Methodist Church 0 mi. 8 Curr. Open

23 Lot # Lot Name Phone Lights Bus Stop Bus Shelter Bike Racks Sidewalks Trail Access HOV Access Dist. to HOV 31 Springfield Plaza 0 mi. 32 American Legion Post 0 mi. 33 Springfield Mall 0 mi. 34 Springfield Mall - Macy's Parking Deck 0 mi. Usage difficult to quantify due to mix of lot users. 35 Parkwood Baptist Church 5 mi. 36 Canterbury Woods Park 4 mi. 37 Wakefield Chapel Recreation Center 3 mi. 38 Jones Point Park 6 mi. Lot closed - future uncertain due to W. Wilson Bridge reconstruction. 39 Columbia Four Mile Run 3 mi. 40 Portsmouth Road Commuter Lot 2 mi. Formerly "I-66/Rte 234 Lot" 41 Stone Road - US 29 0 mi. 42 Centreville United Methodist Church 2 mi. 43 Stringfellow Road 0 mi. 44 Sully Station 4 mi. 45 Poplar Tree Park 2 mi. 46 Greenbriar Park 2 mi. 47 St. Paul's Church 2 mi. 48 Fairfax County Government Center 0 mi. 49 Fair Oaks Mall 0 mi. 50 Kutner Park 1 mi. 51 Truro Episcopal Church 2 mi. 52 North Street Parking Lot 2 mi. 53 Sipan 1 mi. 54 K-Mart at Springfield Plaza 0 mi. 55 Ballston Public Parking Garage 0 mi. 56 North Quincy Street 0 mi. 57 St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church 23 mi. Usage data supplied by Loudoun County 58 Hamilton Baptist Church 20 mi. Usage data supplied by Loudoun County 59 Holy Trinity Lutheran Church 15 mi. Curr. Open 9

24 Lot # Lot Name Phone Lights Bus Stop Bus Shelter Bike Racks Sidewalks Trail Access HOV Access Dist. to HOV 60 Leesburg Virginia Village 13 mi. Lot closed, replaced by Kohl's-Leesburg lot 61 Leesburg K-Mart 13 mi. Lot closed, replaced by Kohl's-Leesburg lot 62 Ashburn Village Soccer Field 8 mi. 63 Ashburn Farm 7 mi. 64 Cascades Lot 8 mi. 65 Wal-Mart 3 mi. Lot closed, replaced by Dulles North lot 66 Sterling Park Shopping Center 3 mi. Formerly "Sterling Plaza Shopping Center" 67 Holiday Inn - Sterling 2 mi. 68 Innovation Avenue/CIT 1 mi. On-street parking lot (curb lane) 69 Herndon Monroe 0 mi. 70 Reston South Commuter Lot 2 mi. 71 Wiehle Avenue 0 mi. 72 Reston East 0 mi. 73 Marumsco Plaza 2 mi. 74 Manassas Mall 3 mi. 75 Virginia Gateway 1 mi. Formerly "Linton Hall Lot" 76 Dulles North 3 mi. Replacement lot for Wal-Mart. Formerly known as W Regional Park and Ride Lot. Usage data supplied by Loudoun Co. 77 Kohl's - Leesburg 13 mi. Replacement lot for Virginia Village and Leesburg K-Mart. Usage data supplied by Loudoun County 78 Nottoway Park 1 mi. Usage data supplied by VDOT. 79 Fair Lanes Bowling Center 1 mi. Usage data supplied by VDOT. Curr. Open 10

25 Table 2. Park and Ride Lot Data: Capacities and Usage Lot # Lot Name Location Corridor Owner Capacity Usage HC Capacity HC Usage Date Observed 01 Triangle Prince William I-95 VDOT /23/ US1/VA 234 Prince William I-95 VDOT /23/2001 Cars parked illegally. 03 Brittany Neighborhood Park Prince William I-95 Private /23/ Montclair Commuter Lot Prince William I-95 VDOT /24/ Princedale at Northton Prince William I-95 Private /30/ Lindendale Commuter Lot Prince William I-95 VDOT /24/ Dale Blvd Prince William I-95 Private /24/ Hillendale Commuter Lot Prince William I-95 VDOT /24/ Dale City Commuter Lot Prince William I-95 VDOT /25/ Cloverdale Model Home Lot Prince William I-95 Private /30/ Dale Blvd Prince William I-95 Private /30/ K-Mart, Dale City Prince William I-95 Private /30/ Prince William County Stadium Prince William I-95 County /1/ Old Bridge Festival Shopping Center Prince William I-95 Private /1/ Bethel United Methodist Church Prince William I-95 Private /1/ Christ Chapel Prince William I-95 Private /1/ Prince William Square Prince William I-95 Private /1/ PRTC Transit Center Prince William I-95 County /30/ Potomac Mills Mall Prince William I-95 Private /31/ Prince William Parkway Prince William I-95 VDOT /6/2001 Formerly "Horner Road Lot"/capacity does not include 325 spaces added in Summer Church of the Brethren Prince William I-95 Private /7/ Harbor Drive Prince William I-95 VDOT /8/ Tackett's Mill Specialty Center Prince William I-95 Private /8/ Lake Ridge Commuter Lot Prince William I-95 VDOT /8/ Hechinger's - Old Bridge Prince William I-95 VDOT /7/ I-95/123 Loop Interchange Prince William I-95 VDOT /7/ South Run District Park Fairfax Ffx Co. Pkwy County /13/ Rolling Valley Fairfax I-95 VDOT /13/2001 Ownership: 50% VDOT/50% County Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 11

26 Lot # Lot Name Location Corridor Owner Capacity Usage HC Capacity HC Usage Date Observed 29 Sydenstricker Road Fairfax Fairfax Co. Pkwy VDOT /13/ Springfield Methodist Church Fairfax I-95 Private /13/ Springfield Plaza Fairfax I-95 Private /14/ American Legion Post Fairfax I-95 Private /14/ Springfield Mall Fairfax I-95 Private /14/ Springfield Mall - Macy's Parking Deck Fairfax I-95 Private /3/2001 Usage difficult to quantify due to mix of lot users. 35 Parkwood Baptist Church Fairfax I-95 Private /21/ Canterbury Woods Park Fairfax I-95 County /21/ Wakefield Chapel Recreation Center Fairfax I-95 County /21/ Jones Point Park City of Alexandria Rte 1 City /15/2001 Lot closed - future uncertain due to W. Wilson Bridge reconstruction. 39 Columbia Four Mile Run Arlington I-95 County /15/ Portsmouth Road Commuter Lot Prince William I-66 VDOT /22/2001 Formerly "I-66/Rte 234 Lot" 41 Stone Road - US 29 Fairfax I-66 County /22/ Centreville United Methodist Church Fairfax I-66 VDOT /22/ Stringfellow Road Fairfax I-66 VDOT /27/ Sully Station Fairfax I-66 Private /27/ Poplar Tree Park Fairfax I-66 County /27/ Greenbriar Park Fairfax I-66 County /27/ St. Paul's Church Fairfax I-66 Private /27/ Fairfax County Government Center Fairfax I-66 County /27/ Fair Oaks Mall Fairfax I-66 Private /21/ Kutner Park City of Fairfax I-66 City /21/ Truro Episcopal Church City of Fairfax I-66 Private /28/ North Street Parking Lot City of Fairfax I-66 City /21/ Sipan City of Fairfax I-66 Private /21/ K-Mart at Springfield Plaza Fairfax I-95 Private /27/ Ballston Public Parking Garage Arlington I-66 County /27/ North Quincy Street Arlington I-66 County /21/2001 Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 12

27 Lot # Lot Name Location Corridor Owner Capacity Usage HC Capacity HC Usage Date Observed 57 St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church Loudoun Rte 7 Private /9/2002 Usage data supplied by Loudoun County 58 Hamilton Baptist Church Loudoun Rte 7 Private /9/2002 Usage data supplied by Loudoun County 59 Holy Trinity Lutheran Church Town of Leesburg Rte 7 Private /21/ Leesburg Virginia Village Town of Leesburg Rte 7 Private /21/2001 Lot closed, replaced by Kohl's-Leesburg lot 61 Leesburg K-Mart Town of Leesburg Rte 7 Private /21/2001 Lot closed, replaced by Kohl's-Leesburg lot 62 Ashburn Village Soccer Field Loudoun Dulles Private /21/ Ashburn Farm Loudoun Dulles Private /21/ Cascades Lot Loudoun Rte 7 County /1/ Wal-Mart Loudoun Dulles Private /22/2001 Lot closed, replaced by Dulles North lot 66 Sterling Park Shopping Center Loudoun Dulles Private /22/2001 Formerly "Sterling Plaza Shopping Center" 67 Holiday Inn - Sterling Loudoun Dulles VDOT /22/ Innovation Avenue/CIT Loudoun Dulles VDOT /22/2001 On-street parking lot (curb lane) 69 Herndon Monroe Fairfax Dulles County /6/ Reston South Commuter Lot Fairfax Dulles County /7/ Wiehle Avenue Fairfax Dulles VDOT /7/ Reston East Fairfax Dulles County /7/ Marumsco Plaza Prince William Rte 1 Private /22/ Manassas Mall Prince William I-66 Private /21/ Virginia Gateway Prince William I-66 Private /22/2001 Formerly "Linton Hall Lot" 76 Dulles North Loudoun Dulles VDOT /9/2002 Replacement lot for Wal-Mart. Formerly known as W Regional Park and Ride Lot. Usage data supplied by Loudoun County 77 Kohl's - Leesburg Town of Leesburg Rte 7 Private /9/2002 Replacement lot for Virginia Village and Leesburg K-Mart. Usage data supplied by Loudoun County 78 Nottoway Park Fairfax I-66 County /16/2002 Usage data supplied by VDOT. 79 Fair Lanes Bowling Center Fairfax I-66 Private /16/2002 Usage data supplied by VDOT. Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 13

28 Table 3 provides a summary of 2001 lot utilization by corridor, which was used for this study. Although this table shows available lot capacity in all corridors, there are a number of lots that are currently operating over-capacity (i.e., vehicles parked illegally or beyond established spaces in shared lots) due to their locations close to HOV facilities and available transit service. Conversely, there are lots that are underutilized in each corridor. Critical factors that relate to the relative utilization and desirability of park and ride lots throughout the District were identified through statistical analysis for use in identification of potential new lot locations. These factors are discussed in Section 4 of this report. Appendix A contains 2002 lot utilization data collected by VDOT. Table 4 provides a summary of lot utilization by jurisdiction. Table 5 presents capacity and utilization totals for each jurisdiction. Utilization is generally higher in the jurisdictions farther from the DC core area, with demand exceeding supply in the Town of Leesburg. License Plates of Virginia-Registered Vehicles The license plate numbers of all Virginia-registered vehicles in the seventy-nine lots were recorded and entered into a database. The registration addresses for each vehicle were then obtained from the Department of Motor Vehicles and geocoded to identify the home locations of users of each lot. Approximately 93% of all vehicles observed in the seventy-nine lots had Virginia license plates that were able to be geocoded. This information provided a critical input to the future park and ride lot demand methodology, which is described in the following section of this report. 2.2 Inputs to VDOT Web Site One of the objectives of the baseline assessment was to provide information that could be communicated to the public to support VDOT s marketing and promotion of carpool, vanpool and transit use in the major HOV corridors. Following completion of the data collection program, separate web pages were created for each park and ride lot for integration into VDOT s web site. Each of these pages contained the following information: Lot capacity and utilization data Lot Amenities Picture of lot Map showing lot location VDOT will incorporate these pages into its official web site along with regional maps so that interested commuters can identify convenient lots. VDOT will also be able to update this information as new lots are constructed, expanded or improved. 14

29 Table Park and Ride Lot Utilization by Corridor Percent Lot # Lot Name Capacity Usage Utilized Owner Dulles Corridor 62 Ashburn Village Soccer Field % Private 63 Ashburn Farm % Private 66 Sterling Park Shopping Center % Private 67 Holiday Inn - Sterling % VDOT 69 Herndon Monroe % County 70 Reston South Commuter Lot % County 71 Wiehle Avenue % VDOT 72 Reston East % County 76 Dulles North % VDOT Total For Dulles Corridor % Fairfax Co. Pkwy Corridor 27 South Run District Park % County 29 Sydenstricker Road % VDOT Total For Fairfax Co. Pkwy Corridor % I-66 Corridor 40 Portsmouth Road Commuter Lot % VDOT 41 Stone Road - US % County 42 Centreville United Methodist Church % VDOT 43 Stringfellow Road % VDOT 44 Sully Station % Private 45 Poplar Tree Park % County 46 Greenbriar Park % County 47 St. Paul's Church % Private 48 Fairfax County Government Center % County 49 Fair Oaks Mall % Private 50 Kutner Park % City 51 Truro Episcopal Church % Private Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 15

30 Percent Lot # Lot Name Capacity Usage Utilized Owner 52 North Street Parking Lot % City 53 Sipan % Private 55 Ballston Public Parking Garage % County 56 North Quincy Street % County 74 Manassas Mall % Private 75 Virginia Gateway % Private 78 Nottoway Park % County 79 Fair Lanes Bowling Center % Private Total For I-66 Corridor % I-95 Corridor 01 Triangle % VDOT 02 US1/VA % VDOT 03 Brittany Neighborhood Park % Private 04 Montclair Commuter Lot % VDOT 05 Princedale at Northton % Private 06 Lindendale Commuter Lot % VDOT 07 Dale Blvd % Private 08 Hillendale Commuter Lot % VDOT 09 Dale City Commuter Lot % VDOT 10 Cloverdale Model Home Lot % Private 11 Dale Blvd % Private 12 K-Mart, Dale City % Private 13 Prince William County Stadium % County 14 Old Bridge Festival Shopping Center % Private 15 Bethel United Methodist Church % Private 16 Christ Chapel % Private 17 Prince William Square % Private 18 PRTC Transit Center % County 19 Potomac Mills Mall % Private 20 Prince William Parkway % VDOT 21 Church of the Brethren % Private Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 16

31 Percent Lot # Lot Name Capacity Usage Utilized Owner 22 Harbor Drive % VDOT 23 Tackett's Mill Specialty Center % Private 24 Lake Ridge Commuter Lot % VDOT 25 Hechinger's - Old Bridge % VDOT 26 I-95/123 Loop Interchange % VDOT 28 Rolling Valley % VDOT 30 Springfield Methodist Church % Private 31 Springfield Plaza % Private 32 American Legion Post % Private 33 Springfield Mall % Private 34 Springfield Mall - Macy's Parking % Private 35 Parkwood Baptist Church % Private 36 Canterbury Woods Park % County 37 Wakefield Chapel Recreation Center % County 39 Columbia Four Mile Run % County 54 K-Mart at Springfield Plaza % Private Total For I-95 Corridor % Rte 1 Corridor 73 Marumsco Plaza % Private Total For Rte 1 Corridor % Rte 7 Corridor 57 St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church % Private 58 Hamilton Baptist Church % Private 59 Holy Trinity Lutheran Church % Private 64 Cascades Lot % County 77 Kohl's - Leesburg % Private Total For Rte 7 Corridor % Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 17

32 Table Park and Ride Lot Utilization by Jurisdiction Percent Lot # Lot Name Capacity Usage Utilized Owner Arlington 39 Columbia Four Mile Run % County 55 Ballston Public Parking Garage % County 56 North Quincy Street % County Total For Arlington % City of Fairfax 50 Kutner Park % City 51 Truro Episcopal Church % Private 52 North Street Parking Lot % City 53 Sipan % Private Total For City of Fairfax % Fairfax 27 South Run District Park % County 28 Rolling Valley % VDOT 29 Sydenstricker Road % VDOT 30 Springfield Methodist Church % Private 31 Springfield Plaza % Private 32 American Legion Post % Private 33 Springfield Mall % Private 34 Springfield Mall - Macy's Parking % Private 35 Parkwood Baptist Church % Private 36 Canterbury Woods Park % County 37 Wakefield Chapel Recreation Center % County 41 Stone Road - US % County 42 Centreville United Methodist Church % VDOT 43 Stringfellow Road % VDOT 44 Sully Station % Private 45 Poplar Tree Park % County Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 18

33 Percent Lot # Lot Name Capacity Usage Utilized Owner 46 Greenbriar Park % County 47 St. Paul's Church % Private 48 Fairfax County Government Center % County 49 Fair Oaks Mall % Private 54 K-Mart at Springfield Plaza % Private 69 Herndon Monroe % County 70 Reston South Commuter Lot % County 71 Wiehle Avenue % VDOT 72 Reston East % County 78 Nottoway Park % County 79 Fair Lanes Bowling Center % Private Total For Fairfax % Loudoun 57 St. Andrew's Presbyterian Church % Private 58 Hamilton Baptist Church % Private 59 Holy Trinity Lutheran Church % Private 62 Ashburn Village Soccer Field % Private 63 Ashburn Farm % Private 64 Cascades Lot % County 66 Sterling Park Shopping Center % Private 67 Holiday Inn - Sterling % VDOT 76 Dulles North % VDOT 77 Kohl's - Leesburg % Private Total For Loudoun % Prince William 01 Triangle % VDOT 02 US1/VA % VDOT 03 Brittany Neighborhood Park % Private 04 Montclair Commuter Lot % VDOT 05 Princedale at Northton % Private Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 19

34 Percent Lot # Lot Name Capacity Usage Utilized Owner 06 Lindendale Commuter Lot % VDOT 07 Dale Blvd % Private 08 Hillendale Commuter Lot % VDOT 09 Dale City Commuter Lot % VDOT 10 Cloverdale Model Home Lot % Private 11 Dale Blvd % Private 12 K-Mart, Dale City % Private 13 Prince William County Stadium % County 14 Old Bridge Festival Shopping Center % Private 15 Bethel United Methodist Church % Private 16 Christ Chapel % Private 17 Prince William Square % Private 18 PRTC Transit Center % County 19 Potomac Mills Mall % Private 20 Prince William Parkway % VDOT 21 Church of the Brethren % Private 22 Harbor Drive % VDOT 23 Tackett's Mill Specialty Center % Private 24 Lake Ridge Commuter Lot % VDOT 25 Hechinger's - Old Bridge % VDOT 26 I-95/123 Loop Interchange % VDOT 40 Portsmouth Road Commuter Lot % VDOT 73 Marumsco Plaza % Private 74 Manassas Mall % Private 75 Virginia Gateway % Private Total For Prince William % Note: Lot capacities shown in table are based on field counts and may differ slightly from previously documented capacity data. 20

35 Table 5. Summary of 2001 Jurisdiction Park and Ride Lot Capacity and Percent Utilization Jurisdiction Total P&R Lot Capacity % P&R Lot Utilization Arlington County % City of Fairfax % Fairfax County 7, % Loudoun County 1, % Prince William County 7, % Total 17,326 54% 21

36 3. Future Park and Ride Lot Demand

37 3.0 Future Park and Ride Lot Demand A key component of this study was to project future demand for park and ride facilities located within the Northern Virginia District. The demand methodology and subsequent needs analysis focused only on those park and ride lots oriented to the major HOV corridors and did not examine other lots, such as those at Metrorail and VRE stations. In addition, future park and ride demand for the Dulles corridor between SR 659 and the Capital Beltway was not examined since this had been the subject of detailed analyses as part of the Dulles Corridor Transportation Study (Dulles Corridor Transportation Study, Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation, 1997). 3.1 Demand Methodology The methodology described below was used to develop short-range (2005), intermediaterange (2010) and long-range (2020) projections of demand for park and ride facilities. The demand analysis focused on five of the commuter corridors and the roads that feed into them within the Northern Virginia District that provide access to HOV facilities: 1. I-95 - Prince William/Stafford County Line to Capital Beltway 2. US 1 - Prince William/Stafford County Line to Capital Beltway 3. I-66 - Prince William/Fauquier County Line to Capital Beltway 4. VA 7/Greenway/Dulles Toll Road Loudoun/Clarke County Line to Capital Beltway (Dulles Toll Road VA 28 to Capital Beltway, baseline assessment only) 5. Fairfax County Parkway US 1 to VA 7 Each of the five corridors was subdivided into subareas for the purposes of this analysis, which enabled the methodology to be sensitive to separate areas within each corridor that can be expected to demonstrate different demand characteristics. The subareas were defined based on GIS plots of the existing park and ride lot user origins for each lot in each corridor. Throughout the remainder of this section of the report, there will be references to corridors and subareas. Corridors are those commuting corridors listed above. Subareas are subsets of each corridor. The flow chart in Figure 5 shows the methodology that was applied. As shown, two separate procedures, labeled as I and II, were applied independently with the results compared and reconciled to produce a final set of demand projections. Each of the two procedures is described in detail below. The reconciled projections were used to identify preferred areas for new park and ride lot capacity to serve future projected demand. Procedure I This procedure was based on the one developed and utilized by the Transportation Planning Section of the Northern Virginia District in its 1997 analysis of the I-95/395 corridor (I-95 Corridor 2010 Park-and-Ride Lot Demand Forecasts, June 1997). While some details were modified for this analysis, the basis of the procedure remained the same, which is that future park and ride lot demand is a function of current demand by subarea and regional household 22

38 Figure 5. Park and Ride Lot Demand Methodology I Develop Growth Factors for each Subarea: HH (households) for Origins Jobs for Destinations Corridor Destinations from 1994 VDOT Survey Average Origin & Destination Factors for each Subarea Future Demand by Subarea I I Establish Corridor Subareas MWCOG Zones for each Subarea User Origins By Lot 2001 Origins and Mode Split by Lot and Subarea MWCOG Mode Choice Model Outputs: HOV and Drive Access Transit* 2000, 2005, 2010, 2020 Bus Boarding Data Estimate Mode Split by Lot (HOV & Transit) Derive Growth Factors for HOV and Drive Access for each Lot Compare and Reconcile Subarea Demand Future Demand by Subarea Future Subarea Demand * = The MWCOG mode choice model produces estimates of HOV and drive access person trips. Drive access transit person trips are those persons that drive from home to park and ride lots or transit stations to access transit services. 23

39 and employment growth. This procedure was intended to produce order of magnitude demand estimates for each subarea. Separate growth factors for origins and destinations were developed for each corridor subarea for each target year. Origin growth factors were based on projected growth in households of zones within each subarea and destination growth factors were based on projected growth in employment in the regional core (DC and Arlington) and the Virginia non-core (Fairfax County and Alexandria) destination areas. The employment growth rates were weighted to reflect the proportion of trips to the core vs. non-core areas for each subarea based on data from a previous 1994 VDOT survey of park and ride lot users. For those corridors and subareas for which previous survey data was not available, weights were based on other O-D studies conducted in Northern Virginia for VDOT by BMI in 1999 and professional judgment. Future household and employment growth was based on Metropolitan Washington COG Cooperative Land Use Forecasts Round 6.2. The final employment growth factors for each subarea were then averaged with the household growth factors to derive an overall growth factor that was applied to existing park and ride lot demand in each subarea to generate demand projections for each target year. Procedure II This procedure produced demand estimates at the subarea level and was formulated to be sensitive to future changes in HOV facilities, transit services and levels of highway congestion in each corridor. This procedure used the regional MWCOG Version 1 travel demand model s mode choice component to develop projections of park and ride lot demand. The MWCOG mode choice model produces projections of home-to-work person trips by mode. Much like Procedure I, this procedure was used to derive growth factors to apply to existing utilization to project future demand. The growth factors were derived from growth in HOV and drive access transit trips resulting from the mode choice model, which are based on MWCOG Cooperative Land Use Forecasts Round 6.2 and the Constrained Long Range Transportation Plan (CLRP) and FY Transportation Improvement Program (TIP). Selected major transportation system improvements in the 2000 CLRP assumed for the various target years (i.e., open to traffic years) of this analysis included the following: 1. I-95, widen to 8 lanes from Newington to VA 123, I-95, LOV access at Franconia-Springfield Parkway to and from the west, I-495, widen to 10 lanes, Dulles Toll Road to American Legion Bridge, Dulles Greenway, widen to 6 lanes, VA 772 to VA 28, 2000, Fairfax County Parkway, upgrade to Route Type 1 from Fullerton Road to Franconia-Springfield Parkway, Metrorail/VRE Station at Potomac Yards, I-395 HOV, restripe to 3 lanes, Fairfax County Parkway/Franconia-Springfield Parkway HOV, I-95 HOV, extend to Stafford County Line, 2005, and restripe to 3 lanes from Quantico Creek to I-395, I-495 HOV from I-495/395 interchange to American Legion Bridge, I-395, add HOV access to and from the south at Seminary Road,

40 12. I-66 HOV from VA 234 to US 15, Cherry Hill VRE station access road, Dulles Fixed Guideway transit, bus, BRT, Rail, US 1 HOV from VA 235 to the south city line of Alexandria, I-95/395 Transit Service Enhancements from Stafford County Line to Potomac River Although all transportation system improvements in the CLRP were assumed for this analysis, the specific projects noted above have the potential to affect park and ride lot demand in the Northern Virginia District. The first step in this procedure was to determine the subareas in each corridor to be used for this procedure and Procedure I. As part of the Task 1 baseline assessment, BMI collected Virginia license plate numbers of vehicles observed in all of the surveyed lots. This data was then sent to the Virginia Department of Motor Vehicles to obtain the registration addresses, which were geocoded and plotted using GIS. This data allowed the study team to identify the market areas for each lot and corridor, as well as to determine appropriate subarea boundaries within each corridor. Figure 6 shows the resulting subareas, as well as the geocoded vehicle registration data colorcoded by corridor. Eighteen subareas were identified. Each dot in Figure 6 represents a geocoded registration address of vehicles observed in the park and ride lots during the baseline assessment. The analysis subareas were developed based on concentrations of park and ride lot users. This procedure was also formulated to be sensitive to the reason people are using particular park and ride lots; that is, for ridesharing or to access bus transit service. BMI compiled data from the local jurisdictions on the number of persons boarding buses at some of the lots within their jurisdiction to help determine the mode split (i.e., proportion of HOV vs. bus riders) at each lot. In addition, BMI collected bus boarding data at six additional park and ride lots to supplement the data obtained from the local jurisdictions. Appendix B contains the bus boarding data. For each subarea, an approximation was made of the MWCOG zones that most closely correspond to that subarea, as indicated by the GIS plots for each lot. Outputs of the mode choice component of the MWCOG regional travel demand model were then used to generate two separate growth factors for each subarea: 1) HOV and 2) drive access transit. Drive access transit trips are person trips that drive in a vehicle from their home to either a park and ride lot or to a transit station with parking to access transit services. These growth factors were applied to the respective number of each type of user for each subarea. The proportion of transit vs. HOV users for each subarea was based on corridor estimates developed from the bus boarding data. Growth in slugging activity was accounted for using the HOV growth factor. Future demand for the subareas was then aggregated and compared to the subarea demand levels projected under Procedure I. At this point, these preliminary demand projections were reviewed with the study team. This review showed that the Procedure II projections were significantly higher than the Procedure I 25

41 26

42 projections in all cases, thereby establishing high and low ends of a range of demand levels. It was decided at that point to average the projections from both procedures for each subarea to estimate future park and ride lot demand from each subarea. This averaging procedure was applied for all subareas except the Leesburg and Purcellville subareas, for which the Procedure I demand projections were used. The reason for this was that future park and ride lot demand from these subareas, as estimated using the Procedure II methodology, was heavily influenced by the planned major transit improvements in the Dulles corridor. Since the focus of this study is on free park and ride lots, as opposed to transit station lots typically requiring a parking fee, it was felt that the average of demand growth factors from the two procedures was still too high for projecting demand for free park and ride lot spaces. In addition, absent any changes to commuter bus service now operating out of these areas, it was determined that a lower demand estimate (i.e., Procedure I level) would be appropriate. 3.2 Future Park and Ride Lot Demand Table 6 shows the final future park and ride lot demand forecasts by subarea of origin. As shown in Table 6, overall Northern Virginia District park and ride lot demand is projected to increase by approximately 50% by the year The 2020 forecasts show a growth in demand of approximately 45% in the I-66 and I-95 corridors. The Route 7 corridor shows a higher percentage growth due to expected growth in population and households. Demand projections for the Dulles corridor were not developed as part of this study due to the ongoing Dulles Corridor Rapid Transit Project (DCRTP) EIS efforts being led by the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation. 27

43 Table 6. Future Park and Ride Lot Demand by Subarea of Origin Current % % 2020 Subarea Name Demand Demand Growth Demand Growth Demand Purcellville % Growth Leesburg Rte. 7 Corridor Subtotal % % % Centreville Fairfax Gainesville Manassas I-66 Corridor Subtotal % % % Lower Occoquan Burke Springfield Independent Hill Dale City Woodbridge Stafford Dumfries I-95 & FCP Corridor Subtotal % % % Inner Areas: Great Falls / Arlington % % % Mt. Vernon % % % Other* % % % Totals (excluding Dulles corridor) % % % * areas in Virginia outside of the eighteen subareas that were identified for this study. 28

44 4. Identification of Park and Ride Lot Needs

45 4.0 Identification of Park and Ride Lot Needs This section of the report describes the process used to identify areas that require additional park and ride lot capacity, including the results of a statistical analysis, needs analysis and identification of subareas in which additional park and ride lot capacity is, or will be, needed. 4.1 Statistical Analysis In order to identify future park and ride lot capacity needs in each subarea, potential demand for park and ride spaces in each subarea was compared to existing and programmed parking supply in each subarea, which is described in Section 4.2. However, since the baseline assessment found that there are park and ride lots in each subarea that have little or no usage, a statistical analysis of lot attributes and usage was conducted to determine which lot attributes had the strongest correlation to lot usage. The results of this analysis provided useful information toward an understanding of why particular lots were underutilized and where potential new lots should be located. BMI obtained data not only on the capacity and usage of each existing park and ride lot, but also a number of other attributes as well. These included: Ownership of the lot, Presence of lighting, Presence of a public phone, Presence of bus transit service, Presence of bus shelters, Presence of a connection to a bike route, Presence of bike racks, bike lockers, or other amenities, Presence of connecting sidewalks, and Presence of direct HOV access (i.e., within one-quarter mile). All of these attributes were subjected to statistical testing to determine if there was a correlation between the attribute and the volume-capacity ratio (i.e., utilization) for the lot. The statistical method used was a parametric estimator of the Wilcoxon Rank-Sum test, for α=0.05. The parameter α is a measure of the probability of a false correlation the analyst is willing to accept. The results of the statistical tests showed that only three attributes met the criteria for finding a correlation: Presence of lighting, Presence of bus transit service, and Direct HOV access. The presence of each of these attributes, taken separately, has a positive correlation with the volume-capacity ratio. None of the other attributes showed a correlation. Additional tests were performed in an attempt to prove or disprove the independence of these three attributes. 29

46 It was found that where transit service is present, there is an independent correlation between lighting and the volume-capacity ratio, but in areas without transit or HOV access, there is no correlation. The results for the tests between transit and HOV were suggestive of independence, but this could not be definitively proven or disproven. With the results of the statistical tests, two essential attributes required for a proposed park and ride lot to be effective were identified: The park and ride lot should have either direct access to the HOV system or regular bus service, and The park and ride lot should be lighted. 4.2 Needs Analysis In addition to understanding the attributes that encourage park and ride lot utilization, subarea demand projections were examined and compared with the existing supply to help identify subareas where additional park and ride lot capacity may be needed. In order to develop estimates of where additional park and ride lot capacity will be needed, the demand estimates from Table 6 were used in conjunction with current demand patterns as identified from the geocoding of current users. The demand estimates by subarea of trip origin in Table 6 were assigned to park and ride lot destinations by subarea based on current demand patterns. As an example, consider the Dale City-Woodbridge area. Park and ride lot user demand from this subarea is projected to be 4,057 in 2005, as shown in Table 6. However, from the geocoded user data that was collected, it is known that not all park and rider lot users that live in this subarea use a park and ride lot in this subarea. Similarly, not all vehicles observed parked in this subarea originated in this subarea. This is why the estimated 2005 demand for park and ride lot origins (i.e., 4,057 from Table 6) does not equal the projected 2005 demand for spaces in the Dale City-Woodbridge subarea of 5,518 shown in Table 7. Table 7 provides a summary of future park and ride lot demand versus supply by subarea. The supply figures shown in Table 7 include both existing supply and funded or recentlycompleted park and ride lot projects, which are itemized in Table 8 below. The supply figures do not include lots within subareas that had no current usage in order to reflect a more realistic picture of the available supply. It should be noted that due to the ongoing detailed Dulles Corridor Transportation Study being conducted for the provision of rail, the subareas in the Dulles corridor are not being addressed as part of this study, and are therefore not included. The demand estimates represent demand for park and ride spaces within each of the subareas. 30

47 Table 7. Subarea Demand vs. Supply SUBAREAS 2005 Demand 2005 Supply* 2005 Need 2010 Demand 2010 Supply* 2010 Need 2020 Demand 2020 Supply* 2020 Need Burke Centreville Dale City - Woodbridge Dumfries Fairfax Gainesville Inner Areas Lower Occoquan Leesburg Manassas Mt Vernon Purcellville Springfield * Includes recently completed and funded park and ride projects and does not include lots with no usage. Table 8. Funded or Recently Completed Park and Ride Lot Projects in the Subareas Lot Name Subarea Number of Spaces Projected Opening Prince William Parkway Dale City 1337 OPEN Expansion*(formerly Horner Road lot) Woodbridge Gambrill Road Burke 235 Fall 2003 Backlick Road North Springfield 250 Summer 2003 Backlick Road South Springfield 200 Summer 2003 Purcellville Purcellville Lorton Road Lower 175 OPEN Occoquan Michael s Mt. Vernon 200 OPEN *Approximately 1,337 spaces were added that may replace the currently available spaces at Potomac Mills Mall. In addition to comparing future demand versus future supply, ownership of lots within each subarea was also considered to determine additional subareas in which permanent lot capacity will be needed. The reason for this is that it is preferable to have publicly-owned lots as opposed to leased lots in order to avoid situations in which future lot supply is contingent on 31

48 leasing arrangements with private property owners, particularly in subareas with high usage of the leased lots. A final consideration in determining subareas for additional park and ride lot capacity was a desire by VDOT to add park and ride lot capacity to complement planned HOV facility expansions. Specifically, the Gainesville subarea adjacent to the planned I-66 HOV extension was added. Therefore, the needs estimates used for this study were higher than those shown in Table 7, which were based only on projected demand. Fairfax County had identified its desire for a new park and ride lot to be located along US Route 1 near the terminus of the planned HOV lanes near Route 235. Since this corridor is currently under study, it was not possible at this time to identify specific potential parcels for a new park and ride lot. It is recommended that potential lot locations be identified and evaluated upon completion of the corridor study. 4.3 Subareas Identified for New Park and Ride Lots Table 9 presents a summary of the subareas in which additional park and ride lot capacity will be needed in the future, along with the reasons for their selection and specific areas where new lot capacity would be most beneficial. A total long-term need for approximately 3,150 spaces was identified. Figure 7 shows the subarea locations. Following a review of this list by the local jurisdictions, Loudoun County indicated that they were initiating an evaluation of potential new lot locations in the Leesburg area. Accordingly, they communicated a desire to have this study investigate potential locations for a new park and ride lot in the Purcellville area, in lieu of further investigations in the Leesburg area. 32

49 Note: Ashburn, Sterling, and Reston-Herndon subareas are not included in this study due to ongoing DCRTP study. 33

50 Table 9. Future Subarea Needs Subarea Year # of spaces* Leesburg Total 500 Reason Demand growth due to population growth and planned expansion of bus service. Best Areas for New Lots Near the VA7 / US 15 overlap (Leesburg Bypass) and the north end of the airport. Springfield Significant number of existing spaces are in leased/ shared use lots, which are less preferable than publicowned lots. Centreville Imbalance in utilization of lots near VA 28 and US 29 Dumfries Total Dale City Woodbridge Total vs. park and proffered lots. Demand growth due to population growth to the south. Demand growth due to local population growth and projected I-95/I-395 congestion levels. Gainesville Permanent lot preferred to accommodate potential demand growth associated with planned I-66 HOV extension. Mt. Vernon Permanent lot preferred to accommodate potential demand growth associated with planned U.S. Route 1 HOV lane extension. *Needs estimates rounded to nearest 50 Close proximity to I- 95, Fairfax County Parkway and/or Franconia-Springfield Parkway. Along VA 28 near US 29 and along US 29 west of VA 28. Along VA 234 near I- 95 and near Triangle. Between Minnieville Road and US 1, with access to major arteries. Close proximity to I- 66 interchange at US Route 29. Adjacent to US Route 1 near planned terminus of HOV lane extension at VA

51 5. Site Evaluation

52 5.0 Site Evaluation Projected park and ride lot needs and the subareas in which additional capacity is needed were communicated to the local jurisdiction members of the study team. VDOT requested their input on potential parcels where new lots should be evaluated. Following receipt of comments from the local jurisdictions, VDOT identified the following seven site locations to be evaluated for potential new park and ride lots: 1. Purcellville northwest quadrant of Route 7/Route 287/W&OD Trail junction. 2. Engineer Proving Ground (EPG) southeast quadrant of planned new interchange on Fairfax County Parkway. 3. Route 234 Bypass/I-66 southeast quadrant of Route 234/I-66 interchange. 4. US 1/Route 234 northwest quadrant of planned US Route 1/Route 234 interchange. 5. Minnieville Road/Caton Hill Road northeast quadrant on Minnieville Road/Caton Hill Road intersection. 6. Telegraph Road west side of Telegraph Road, north of its intersection with Caton Hill Road 7. Gainesville southwest quadrant of future realigned Linton Hall Road and US 29 interchange. These locations were evaluated using the following criteria; in addition, conceptual plans and cost estimates were developed for each: 1. Site access: a direct, adequately controlled access point improves access to the HOV facility and the efficiency of transit service. 2. Proximity to the HOV system: closer lots allow quicker access to HOV lanes, and the efficiency of bus service is improved. 3. Proximity to major roads and highways: bus service is concentrated along these routes and given the structure of the typical street network in the region, leaving these routes imposes a significant time penalty; also provides easier access to the HOV facility. 4. Transit service potential: if the area around the lot can contribute passengers to the transit service, the density and efficiency of the service is improved. 5. User Demand: potential demand for each potential site. 6. Size and expansion potential: lot size is adequate to meet projected demand with space to accommodate additional demand, if needed in the future. 7. Land and lease acquisition: cost management. 8. Land use and zoning: may determine the feasibility of lighting or feasibility of developing the site. 9. Safety and security: a lot perceived as dangerous will be avoided despite other favorable attributes; hazards may include crime, vehicle collisions, or flooding. 10. Community impacts: locations in areas with compatible land uses are preferred. Evaluation activities related to each of the seven locations are described in the remainder of this section. A summary evaluation matrix is presented in Table 10 at the end of this section. 35

53 5.1 Purcellville Loudoun County expressed a need for a new park and ride lot in the Purcellville area, preferably located in the vicinity of the Route 287/Route 7 Bypass/W&OD Trail junction. They noted that Loudoun Express currently serves two church lots in the area, St. Andrew and Hamilton Baptist, that have logistical issues associated with their continued use as park and ride facilities. VDOT directed the project team to investigate potential parcels in this area for evaluation. A three acre parcel located in the northwest quadrant of the Route 287/Route 7 intersection, which is shown in Figure 8, was identified and evaluated. This site had a number of positive features, including its size, proximity to arterials and a trail, and access. In addition, a commuter parking lot is a permitted use on this parcel under the current Loudoun County Zoning Ordinance; however, a special exemption is needed if the lot exceeds fifty spaces, which this proposed lot does. The conceptual plan for this lot shows a total of 233 spaces at an estimated cost of approximately $ 610,000. Appendix D contains the conceptual design plan for this lot and details of the associated cost estimate. 5.2 Engineer Proving Ground (EPG) Fairfax County had identified its desire for a new park and ride lot located along the planned Fairfax County Parkway section to be constructed immediately west of I-95 between the Franconia-Springfield Parkway and I-95. Specifically, the proposed lot location is in the southeast quadrant of the planned new interchange that will provide access to the Engineer Proving Ground (EPG) site and Rolling Road. This location is shown in Figure 9. The conceptual plan for this lot shows a total of 884 spaces at an estimated cost of approximately $ 1,660,000. Advantages of this site include its large size, proximity to the Fairfax County Parkway and I- 95 HOV lanes, adjacent compatible land uses, and public ownership of the parcel. Access to the lot is planned from the EPG Access Road at a signalized intersection. Given the large number of spaces in this lot, it would be advisable to investigate adding a second access driveway to the lot as part of the preliminary engineering process. Appendix E contains the conceptual design plan for this lot and details of the associated cost estimate. 5.3 Route 234 Bypass / I-66 No potential lot locations were identified within the Centreville subarea, which is projected to have a need for additional park and ride lot capacity. However, a potential location for a new lot to serve the Centreville and Manassas subareas was identified in the southeast quadrant of the I-66/Route 234 Bypass in Manassas. This lot location is shown in Figure 10. Data collected during the baseline assessment showed that a significant number of vehicles parking 36

54 37

55 38

56 39

57 in lots in the Centreville subarea originated in the Manassas area. Since this proposed new lot is located closer to Manassas than the Centreville lots, and is in close proximity to I-66, it is envisioned that this lot will serve to divert demand from the existing Centreville lots. The location of this new lot is shown in Figure 10. The conceptual plan for this lot shows a total of 530 spaces at an estimated cost of approximately $ 1,050,000. This lot will have two access points to Cushing Road. Cushing Road connects to Balls Ford Road, which provides access to the Route 234 Bypass and I-66 interchange. Advantages of this site include its large size, proximity to the Route 234 Bypass and planned I-66 HOV lane extension, adjacent compatible land uses, and VDOT ownership of the parcel. A disadvantage of the site is the relatively circuitous access scheme via Balls Ford Road and Cushing Road. It would be advisable to investigate options for direct access from the Route 234 Bypass during the preliminary engineering process. Appendix F contains the conceptual design plan for this lot and details of the associated cost estimate. 5.4 US Route 1 / Route 234 VDOT has plans to re-locate the existing park and ride lot on Route 234 east of I-95 as part of the grade-separation project at US Route 1 and Route 234. The new lot location will be in the northwest quadrant of the new interchange. As currently planned, the re-located lot will have approximately 438 spaces. This will represent an increase of 83 spaces over the existing lot, which has 355 spaces. This will satisfy the ultimate identified need for 150 additional spaces in the Dumfries subarea. Access to this lot is planned to be from Interstate Drive. Although direct access from Route 234 would be preferable, the geometric design of the planned urban diamond Route 234/ US Route 1 interchange and the planned grades likely preclude this. 5.5 Minnieville Road / Caton Hill Road In order to accommodate the ultimate projected need of 1,050 additional spaces in the Dale City - Woodbridge subarea, two separate locations were evaluated. Both locations are shown in Figure 9. The first lot is located between Minnieville Road (Route 640) and Caton Hill Road. This lot is shown as a potential future park and ride lot in the 1998 Prince William County Parkway Employment Center Sector Plan. The conceptual plan for this lot shows a total of 951 spaces at an estimated cost of approximately $2,300,000. This lot will have two access points: one to Minnieville Road and the second to Caton Hill Road. Advantages of this site include its proximity to the I-95 HOV lanes, ability to address projected needs in this subarea, size, access from both adjacent roadways and compatibility with the local land use plan. A disadvantage is the added right-of-way cost, which is estimated at approximately $500,

58 Appendix G contains the conceptual design plan and details of the associated cost estimate. 5.6 Telegraph Road In order to accommodate the ultimate projected need of 1,050 additional spaces in the Dale City - Woodbridge subarea, two separate locations were evaluated. Both locations are shown in Figure 9. The first lot, which is described above, is located between Minnieville Road and Caton Hill Road. The second lot is located on Telegraph Road, north of Caton Hill Road. The conceptual plan for this lot shows a total of 835 spaces at an estimated cost of approximately $1,550,000. This lot will have two access points to Telegraph Road. Advantages of this site include its proximity to the I-95 HOV lanes, ability to address projected needs in this subarea, size, VDOT ownership of the parcel and compatibility with the local land use plan. Appendix H contains the conceptual design plan and details of the associated cost estimate. 5.7 Gainesville VDOT identified a parcel in the southwest quadrant of the future Linton Hall Road and US Route 29 interchange as a site to evaluate. This lot would be developed in two phases to coincide with the planned construction phasing. The interim phase will accommodate 100 parking spaces and the ultimate phase will accommodate approximately 402 parking spaces. The interim phase will cost approximately $ 240,000 to construct and the ultimate phase is estimated to cost an additional $ 530,000, for a total ultimate cost of approximately $770,000. This lot will more than satisfy the identified need for 100 additional spaces in the Gainesville subarea. Additional advantages of this site include its proximity to the planned I-66 HOV lane extension, adjacent compatible land uses, and VDOT ownership of the parcel. Appendix I contains conceptual design plans for the Phase I and ultimate buildout scenarios for this lot and associated construction cost estimates. 5.8 Site Evaluation Summary Table 10 presents an evaluation matrix for all of the sites that were evaluated, which are shown in Figure 11. All of the sites are rated either good or fair against the evaluation criteria, with no sites exhibiting fatal flaws. The EPG and Telegraph Road sites have a good rating under all criteria. Construction of all the potential lots described in this section will satisfy identified park and ride needs in the Northern Virginia District. 41

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