Danske Bank Markets Copenhagen Winter Seminar. By Lars Jensen, CFO 30 November 2016
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1 Danske Bank Markets Copenhagen Winter Seminar By Lars Jensen, CFO 30 November ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
2 A Leading Regional Beverage Group Royal Unibrew Core markets Full range of beverages, own breweries and distribution Denmark Germany Finland Lithuania Latvia Estonia Niche markets Specialty beverages, export markets, third party distribution Italy Markets for malt beverages and export of beer: Caribbean, Africa, South America, major metropolitan areas in England and USA Associated companies, other assets Other assets Norway: Hansa Borg Breweries 25% Greenland: Nuuk Imeq A/S 32% Remaining parts of Aarhus brewery site Royal Unibrew is a leading regional beverage group 2 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
3 Business segment overview significant change since Volume Western Europe Baltic Sea Malt Beverages & Export 2015 Net revenue Western Europe Baltic Sea Malt Beverages & Export 2015 EBIT Western Europe Baltic Sea Malt Beverages & Export 7% 8% 11% 53% 40% 45% 45% 39% 54% 2012 Volume 2012 Net revenue 2012 EBIT 31% 8% 61% 12% 17% 71% 5% 17% 84% 3 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
4 Strengthening of key performance figures PROFIT MARGIN RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL EBITDA margin (reported) ROIC EBIT margin (reported) % % ,7 21, , ,4 17, ,8 16, ,0 15, , ,1 22,0 ROIC ex. Goodwill 22,2 18,8 16,4 15,1 12,2 13,2 26,3 17, Q12 1 3Q13 1 3Q14 1 3Q15 1 3Q Q12 1 3Q13 1 3Q14* 1 3Q15 1 3Q16 * 1 3Q14 proforma incl. Hartwall from ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
5 Solid performance to peers 2015 EBIT MARGIN (COMPARABLE REGION)* % FREE CASH FLOW % OF REVENUE % RU Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 0 RU Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 RETURN ON INVESTED CAPITAL** CASH RETURN TO SHAREHOLDERS % % RU Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 * Based on FY2013 and FY2014 results on comparable basis. RU proforma 2013 EBIT margin 12,0% ** Based on average invested capital vs. previously on year end figures ,0 RU Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 5 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
6 Status on Craft beer, premiumization and growth initiatives Increased focus on craft & speciality beer Opening of new micro-brewery in increased craft and specialty beer capacity Craft and specialty beer organization adaptations and strengthening of know-how Craft beer portfolio Premiumization and value enhancement Continued development of premium and super-premium market positions and brands Innovations and consumer activation Malt & Beverages deeper penetration & rotation in existing markets (new & heritage markets) Extension of PepsiCo co-operation delivering appr. 2% growth to NR in 1-3Q16 From August 16 presentation 6 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
7 Phasing of top line key to understand weather impact Underlying price/mix at Hartwall mirroring value strategy Deviation 2015/2016 DK+Germany Q2 Q3 Total HL 10,3% 0,5% 4,7% NR 10,4% 1,8% 4,0% NR/HL 0,1% 1,2% 0,6% Italy Q2 Q3 Total HL 0,0% 1,9% 0,9% NR 1,7% 5,2% 3,3% NR/HL 1,7% 3,4% 2,5% Western Europe Q2 Q3 Total HL 9,0% 0,7% 4,0% NR 7,5% 2,5% 2,4% NR/HL 1,4% 1,8% 1,6% Gaining share in a market that is slightly up Almost keeping NR/HL in spite of bad summer weather Keeping market position in flattish market HL/NR decline due to channel mix 7 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
8 Phasing of top line key to understand weather impact Underlying price/mix at Hartwall mirroring value strategy Deviation 2015/2016 Finland Q2 Q3 Total HL 28,7% 13,0% 20,8% NR 14,8% 5,1% 9,8% NR/HL 10,9% 7,0% 9,1% Baltics Q2 Q3 Total HL 9,1% 2,9% 3,0% NR 5,8% 2,7% 1,6% NR/HL 3,0% 0,2% 1,4% Baltic Sea Q2 Q3 Total HL 20,6% 6,4% 13,4% NR 12,5% 3,3% 7,9% NR/HL 6,7% 2,9% 4,9% Malt Q2 Q3 Total HL 4,2% 6,0% 5,1% NR 1,6% 2,4% 0,4% NR/HL 6,0% 3,9% 5,0% RU Q2 Q3 Total HL 14,1% 2,6% 8,3% NR 9,4% 0,2% 4,8% NR/HL 4,1% 2,3% 3,2% Q2+Q3 delivering same volume growth as Q1 NR/HL improving through value focus Underlying price/mix positive Extraordinary beer campaign pipelined Q Keeping market position in declining market Market negatively impacted by several factors Value improving in spite of NR/HL dilutive PepsiCo portfolio Sell out at mid single digit increase Market mix strengthening NR/HL 8 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
9 August earnings outlook 2016 now specified to the upper end of the earnings intervals mdkk Updated outlook August 2016 Original outlook March 2016 Realized 2015 Realized 2014 Net revenue 6,275 6,450 6,150 6,400 6,032 6,056 EBITDA 1,240 1,290 1,190 1,290 1,225 1,130 *) EBIT *) *) Incl. 50 mdkk one-time restructuring costs 9 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
10 Financial targets - History November 2015 revised target August 2014 revised target Post Hartwall acquisition target** Pre Hartwall acquisition target* EARNINGS EBIT margin 15% EBIT margin 14% EBIT margin 13% EBIT margin 14% EQUITY RATIO Minimum 30% Minimum 30% Minimum 30% Minimum 30% NIBD/EBITDA Maximum 2.5x Maximum 2.5x Maximum 2.5x Maximum 2.5x Dividends and share buy-backs resumed in 2015 Distribution policy: Dividends 40-60% of group net result Share buy-back to adjust capital structure * Basically no amortization ** Amortization from the acquisition decreased EBIT margin by approx. 50bp 10 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
11 Q&A DISCLAIMER: This announcement contains forward-looking statements. Undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements because they relate to and depend on circumstances that may or may not occur in the future and actual results may differ materially from those in forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, statements regarding our business, financial circumstances, strategy, results of operations, financing and other plans, objectives, assumptions, expectations, prospects, beliefs and other future events and prospects. We 11 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK undertake MARKETS no obligation, COPENHAGEN and do not WINTER intend to SEMINAR publicly update 30 or NOVEMBER revise any of 2016 these forward-looking statements, unless prescribed by law or by stock exchange regulations.
12 Appendix 12 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
13 Facts about Royal Unibrew Royal Unibrew is the second biggest brewer in the Nordic and Baltic region Revenue in 2015 of DKK billion EBITDA in 2015 of DKK 1,225 million Approximately 2,300 employees worldwide Export to approx. 85 countries worldwide 5 breweries and 2 soft drink/water facilities Market Cap end December 2015 of DKK 15.5 billion or EUR 2.0 billion Daily average liquidity L12 months approx. DKK 25 million or EUR 3.4 million 13 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
14 Royal Unibrew s goal is to be an efficient regional beverage player Positions, mainstream and niche Category, brands and international partnerships Growth agenda Commercial agenda Efficiency agenda Financial, competitive and strategic flexibility and capital structure Our Leadership DNA 14 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
15 Performance as expected - strong commercial execution Market positions maintained Volume increase of 9% to 7.5mHL Net revenue increase of 6% to DKK 4.9bn EBIT increase of 6% to DKK 825m EBIT-margin increase from 16.8% to 16.9% Free cash flow incl. Aarhus sale up DKK 42m to DKK 835m Earning outlook 2016 specified to the upper end of intervals 15 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
16 Improved financial performance MDKK 1-3Q Q 2015 Change FY 2015 P&L ITEMS: Net revenue 4,874 4, ,032 Gross margin 52,7% 53,6% -0.9 pp 52.6% EBIT EBIT margin 16.9% 16.8% 0.1 pp 15.2% Profit before tax Consolidated profit BALANCE SHEET ITEMS: Net interest bearing debt 1,053 1, ,184 Net working capital Total assets 6,260 6, ,748 Equity 2,895 2, ,935 Equity ratio 46.2% 43.0% 3.2 pp 43.5% 16 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
17 Continued strong free cash flow performance CASH FLOW DKKM 1-3Q15: EBITDA Interest, tax, dividend Cash from operations received, other non-cash before changes in NWC items Changes in NWC Net Capex Free cash flow 17 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
18 FY 2015: Shareholder distribution EPS (@DKK2) Cash flow per share (@DKK2) 0 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY 2015 Dividend for 2015 of DKK 400m, DKK 7,20 share A new share buy-back program under safe harbor worth DKK 450m initiated March 2016 for a maximum period of 12 month Share buy-back as per (existing and previous program): 1,068,554 shares bought at a total value of DKK 318m 18 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
19 Shareholder Structure Largest shareholders Chr. Augustinus Fabrikker A/S 10.4% (notified 11 December 2009) Hartwall Capital Oy Ab 7.1% (notified 6 May 2015) Approx 15,000 shareholders in total One share class No restrictions in ability to pay dividend or buy back shares 19 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
20 Financial Performance /2016 Net revenue EBIT DKKm Net revenue Outlook range DKKm EBIT Outlook range * ** * 400 *) Net revenue 2016: Outlook range DKK 6,275m DKK 6.450m *) Hartwall contribution DKK 38m **) EBIT 2016: Outlook range DKK 935m 985m 20 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
21 Financial Performance /2016 OPERATING IMPROVEMENTS AND SALE OF NON CORE ASSETS CREATING SHAREHOLDER VALUE x 8 NIBD/EBITDA % 50 EQUITY RATIO DKKm 800 DISTRIBUTION Buy back Dividends * YTD 9/2016 * Calculated pro forma with Hartwall s realized full year EBITDA 21 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
22 Management Henrik Brandt President & CEO MSc (Economics and Business Administration), MBA Stranford University, US Joined as CEO on 1 November 2008 Past experience Unomedical A/S, CEO Sophus Berendsen, CEO House of Prince (Scandinavian Tobacco), CEO Lars Jensen CFO Diploma in Business Economics, Informatics and Management Accounting Joined Royal Unibrew in 1993 Joined the Executive Board on 30 November 2011 Past experience: Head of Finance, Royal Unibrew A/S Hans Savonije COO BA Business administration Joined the Executive Board on 29 September 2008 Past experience: Beverage Partners Worldwide, Coca-Cola & Nestlé, CEO SVP Global Markets, Remy Cointreau Associés, CEO, France World Lotteries Association, CEO, Switzerland 22 ROYAL UNIBREW DANSKE BANK MARKETS COPENHAGEN WINTER SEMINAR 30 NOVEMBER 2016
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