Industry Risk Score. Pig iron. Introduction. Punjab National Bank. January Contents. Classification: EXTERNAL. Classification: EXTERNAL

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1 Classification: EXTERNAL Industry Risk Score Punjab National Bank January 2016 Pig iron Introduction Contents Industry Risk Score (IRS) reflects the impact of industry variables on the cash flows and debt repayment ability of the companies in the industry over 3-4 years. The risk score for an industry is arrived at, by aggregating the scores assigned to the parameters relevant for the industry. Industry parameters include variables such as demand-supply outlook, cost structures, competition and financial performance. The parameters are selected based on the extent to which they affect the debt-servicing ability of the companies operating in the industry. Scores on these parameters reflect the extent of positive/negative impact on cash flows, and the degree of variability in cash flows of the companies. The industry risk scores have been graded on a seven-point scale, with 1 indicating high risk and 7 indicating low risk. Risk score Risk factors Highly favourable Favourable Marginally favourable Neutral Marginally unfavourable Unfavourable Highly unfavourable Executive summary 3 Background 4 Industry risk parameters 5 Demand-supply 5 Government policies 5 Input-related risk 5 Extent of competition 6 Financial risk 6 Annexure 7 Classification: EXTERNAL

2 PIG IRON About CRISIL Limited CRISIL is a global analytical company providing ratings, research, and risk and policy advisory services. We are India's leading ratings agency. We are also the foremost provider of high-end research to the world's largest banks and leading corporations. About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 86 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 5,000 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macro-economy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists. Disclaimer CRISIL Limited has taken due care and caution in preparing this Report. Information has been obtained by CRISIL from sources, which it considers reliable. However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. CRISIL Limited has no financial liability whatsoever to the subscribers / users / transmitters / distributors of this Report. The Centre for Economic Research, CRISIL (C-CER) operates independently of and does not have access to information obtained by CRISIL's Ratings Division, which may in its regular operations obtain information of a confidential nature that is not available to C-CER. No part of this Report may be published / reproduced in any form without CRISIL's prior written approval. CRISIL Privacy Notice CRISIL respects your privacy. We use your contact information, such as your name, address, and id, to fulfil your request and service your account and to provide you with additional information from CRISIL and other parts of McGraw Hill Financial you may find of interest. For further information, or to let us know your preferences with respect to receiving marketing materials, please visit You can view McGraw Hill Financial s Customer Privacy Policy at Disclaimer last updated: August, 2014

3 Executive summary In , demand for pig iron is slated to inch up about 5-6% to reach at 8.1 million tonnes on the back of a recovery in the Indian automobiles sector.crisil Research expects overall demand for pig iron to post a CAGR of 7-9 per cent from to , led by higher offtake from the castings segment.pig iron producers who are not forward integrated are vulnerable to rise in input cost as they do not have flexibility to pass on increase in cost. In , operating margins of these players are expected to improve, given the higher fall in the input costs in comparison to pig iron prices. Forward integrated players will be in a relatively better position to pass on any increase in cost, as players generally manufacture castings as per specific customer requirements, which help them to earn better realisations and pass on any increase in input costs. Parameter Weightage Score Pig iron: Industry risk score 2.86 Industry characteristics Demand-supply gap Government policy Input-related risk Extent of competition Industry financials Operating margin of industry RoCE of industry Source: CRISIL Research 1

4 PIG IRON Background Pig iron is a steel intermediate, available in two grades - commercial/steel grade and foundry grade. Steel grade pig iron has lower silicon content and is primarily used to produce finished steel. Foundry grade pig iron (containing per cent silicon) is required for the production of good quality castings, which are mainly used in automobile, engineering and allied sectors. In India, the casting segment consumes around per cent of pig iron while steel making account for the remaining share. Primary producers use basic oxygen furnace (BOF) to manufacture pig iron whereas secondary producers use mini blast furnace (MBF) to produce pig iron. In comparison to BOF, MBF has lower capital costs and lower minimum economic capacity. Hence, secondary producers prefer to set up an MBF plant.the pig iron industry players can be classified as integrated steel producers (ISPs)/primary producers and secondary producers, based on the grade of pig iron produced. ISPs produce steel grade pig iron with a major portion of the output consumed in-house for producing finished steel. Secondary players produce foundry grade pig iron primarily used in foundries.since the pig iron industry is highly fragmented, financials of select companies may not represent the industry. 2

5 Industry risk parameters Demand - Supply During to , demand for pig iron is estimated to have grown at 6.7 per cent CAGR, largely due to growth in castings output. During the same period to , demand from casting players rose 7-8% CAGR, whereas demand from steel-makers was estimated at a mere 1%. The low demand from the steel-making segment could be attributed to a rise in production by large integrated players who use the hot metal route to manufacture steel.crisil Research expects overall demand for pig iron to post a CAGR of 7-9 per cent during to , led by relatively higher offtake from the castings segment. CRISIL Research expects sustained economic growth to translate into healthy freight traffic demand, due to which goods commercial vehicle sales is projected to increase by 12-14% CAGR. Domestic tractor sales are forecast to increase 8-10% over the period, supported by stable farm incomes, rising investments on irrigation projects, growing commercial usage of tractors, and increased focus of government on agricultural and rural development. However, monsoons remain a key cyclical factor.on the other hand, pig iron demand for steel making is expected to contract, as demand for steel will be increasingly met by large integrated steel players, using the blast furnace route. Government policies Pig Iron attracts a customs duty of 5 per cent. The domestic pig iron industry receives very little protection from the government. However, the industry does not face considerable risk from imports on account of high freight costs. In Union Budget , the government raised the excise duty levy to 12.5 per cent from 12 per cent in The marginal increase in the cost thereof is expected to absorb by the players due to weak demand and low bargaining power of pig iron players. Input - related risk The pig iron industry is highly fragmented with players, who do not have access to iron ore mines. Consequently, these players are vulnerable to fluctuations in prices of iron ore and coking coal. Going forward, lower input costs and better availability of raw materials is a positive, even if a part of these benefits are passed on to end-users. The mining clean up drive in Karnataka and Orissa had led to shortage of iron ore and resultantly, significantly increased the iron ore prices over the last 2-3 years. However, with resumption of mining, the iron ore supply and hence the prices are expected to ease in and In the case of coking coal, the global demand-supply situation is slated to remain balanced in 2015, largely due to subdued demand from China and robust supply from Australia. Consequently, contract prices of coking coal, which declined to $ per tonne in 2015 is expected to drop further to $79-81 in The expected decline in input costs will benefit pig iron players. 3

6 PIG IRON Extent of Competition About 32 per cent of the pig iron output is consumed for production of steel (basic grade pig iron). The rest is used to make castings (foundry grade pig iron), which is highly fragmented except for few large players, owing to lower capital costs (average cost of setting up a pig iron manufacturing unit is around Rs 2,500-5,000 per tonne, with a gestation period of months, the cost of setting up a plant will vary according to the technology used). Players who are forward-integrated into castings are more profitable than the nonintegrated players. This is because forward-integrated pig iron players generally manufacture castings as per specific customer requirements. This customisation helps them earn better realisations and pass on any increase in input costs. Financial Risk Pig iron: Financial parameters Select Financial parameters Unit Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Aggregate turnover Rs million Operating profit margin Per cent Return on capital employed Per cent Net profit margin Per cent Return on equity Per cent Interest coverage ratio Times Debt-equity ratio Times Current ratio Times Assets turnover ratio Times Raw materials days Days WIP holding days Days Finished goods days Days Debtors days Days Creditors days Days Nos. of companies No Source: CRISIL Research Pig iron: Cost aggregates Cost Structure (% of net Sales) Unit Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Raw material cost Per cent Power and fuel cost Per cent Other operating costs Per cent Employee cost Per cent Selling cost Per cent Nos. of companies No Source: CRISIL Research 4

7 Annexure Companies used for calculating sector aggregates Kirloskar Ferrous Inds. Ltd.,Tata Metaliks Ltd.,Srikalahasthi Pipes Ltd. The list mentioned above accounts for 14 percent of the domestic industry Pig iron - Sector Aggregate - Interim results % of % of % of % of Jul-Sep Jul-Sep Apr-Sep Apr-Sep (Figures in Rs Million) net net net net Sales Sales Sales Sales Net sales % % % % Total Operating exp % % % % Raw Material exp % % % % Purchase of Finished goods % % % % Change in stock % % % % Salaries and wages % % % % Power & Fuel 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % Rent & lease rent 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % Selling & distribution expenses 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % Other expenses % % % % OPBDIT % % % % Depreciation % % % % OPBIT % % % % Interest % % % % OPBT % % % % Other Income % % % % Non-op Income 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % Extraordinary Income/Expenses 0 0 % % 0 0 % % PBT % % % % Total Tax % % % % Current tax % % % % Deferred tax % 37 0 % 4 0 % % FBT 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % 0 0 % Net profit % % % % Nos. of companies Companies included in interim sector aggregate Kirloskar Ferrous Inds. Ltd.; Srikalahasthi Pipes Ltd.; Tata Metaliks Ltd. 5

8 PIG IRON Pig iron - Business risk evaluation Risk entity name Weightages Operating Efficiency 70 Capacity Utilization 20 Higher utilisation level will help reduce fixed costs of pig iron players. This is extremely critical in a declining price scenario. Availiability of Raw Materials 35 Domestic pig iron manufacturers use coking coal and iron ore lumps as inputs. The recent ban on illegal mining led to severe scarcity of iron ore. Several plants shut down operations due to the ban imposed in various states. Hence, availability of raw material has become a very important factor. Management of Price Volatility 15 Managing price volatility helps players sustain operations during downturns. Integration of Operations 30 Players with backward and forward integration are at an advantage over standalone players. More and more players are getting forward integrated and maximum value addition is achieved at the stage when castings are manufactured. Having captive access to mines or being integrated (backward or forward) would offer huge benefits to players. Market Position 30 Diversified Markets 25 Catering to a diversified end-user market lowers players' exposure to risks.. Proximity to Market 15 Proximity to market reduces transportation cost and gives the player an additional advantage. Long Term Contracts / Assured Offtake 25 Assured contracts help lower volatility in sales volumes. Better visibility on sales volumes would in turn help players plan production and manage inventory better. For example, many pig iron players have long term contracts with with automobile OEMs. Financial Ability to Withstand Price Competition 35 In a weak demand scenario, marginal players are most often than not forced to shut operations as they lack the financial flexibility to withstand price competition. Hence, being price competitive, becomes one of the most important parameters in the pig iron industry. Source: CRISIL Research 6

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