The Arctic & Global Climate Change. Robert D. Hollister
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1 The Arctic & Global Climate Change Robert D. Hollister
2 Outline The Arctic Changing Cryosphere Tundra Ecology Predicted Change Observed Change My Research Politics
3 The Arctic
4 Arctic Circle Lat N 24 hr Day 24 hr Night
5 Treeline 50 0 F/10 0 C 10 o C July isotherm
6 Arctic Watershed
7 Changing Cryosphere
8 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) % change
9 Changing Sea Ice Coverage in September (satellite images)
10 Summer minimum Arctic Sea Ice 8.9% loss per decade United Nations Environment Programme (2007) Global Environment Outlook GEO-4 Report
11
12
13 Global Glacier Change Mass Change Effect on Sea Level Dyurgerov & Meier, 2005
14
15 Glacial Melt in Greenland
16 Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004
17 The Global Role of Snow NASA animation showing positive feedback As the snow melts more solar radiation is absorbed and more snow melts
18 Tundra Ecology
19 Why Study The Arctic?
20 Why Study The Arctic? Less complex simple food web fewer species fewer interactions
21 Why Study The Arctic? Less complex Expected to change greatly due to warming my site 90N 60 Predicted ANNUAL Temperature Increase in S W 60W 0 60E 120E o C IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
22 Why Study The Arctic? Less complex Expected to change greatly due to warming The canary in the coal mine I m dying, Run for your life!!!
23 Permafrost the frozen ground
24 Distribution of Permafrost
25 Distribution of Permafrost Projected loss of 60-90% by 2100
26 Drunken Forest
27 Damaged Buildings Anisimov & Reneva (2006) Ambio:35:
28 Loss of Lakes and Ponds In Alaska Copper River Basin 1985 Copper River Basin 1995
29 Lake Disappearance in Russia Smith et al. (2005) Science 308:1429
30 Catchment Area Will discharge change due to changes in permafrost? numbers are cubic kilometers of discharge CAFF (Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna) Arctic Flora and Fauna: Status and Conservation. Helsinki: Edita. 272 p.
31 Seasonal Active Layer Carbon rich ground Carbon Store C.E. Tweedie
32 Carbon rich ground Seasonal Active Layer Carbon Store Vulnerable: Gigatonnes Current atmosphere: 750 Gigatonnes C.E. Tweedie
33 Seasonal Active Layer Carbon Store Carbon rich ground Vulnerable: Gigatonnes Current atmosphere: 750 Gigatonnes 1% loss would equal current rate of emissions C.E. Tweedie
34 Measuring carbon balance CO 2 Flux
35 Measuring carbon balance CO 2 Flux
36 In saturated soils CH 4 is generally more important than CO 2 Flux C.E. Tweedie
37 Methane tends to be released in pulses Burning a methane bubble
38 Predicted Change
39 Behavior change No behavior change IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
40 Observed annual temperature trend 1901 to 2005 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
41 Temperature Trends
42 Distribution of the major terrestrial biomes Campbell Biology 4 th Edition
43 Location of principal biomes in climate space Mean Annual Temperature (C ) Mean Annual Precipitation (cm)
44 Temperature gradients high rock, snow, ice tundra coniferous forest Altitude deciduous forest low tropical forest equatorial Latitude polar Townsend Harper Begon; Essentials of Ecology
45 Temperature gradients high rock, snow, ice Altitude Adiabatic lapse rate 1 o C ~ 100 m tundra coniferous forest deciduous forest low tropical forest 1 o C ~ 150 km equatorial Latitude polar Townsend Harper Begon; Essentials of Ecology
46 Biome Shifts Over-the-top hypothesis Tundra? Climate Warming Current biomes Future biomes
47 Today Future projection 2 x CO 2 (2025) (Emanuel et al. 1985)
48 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
49 Annual Pattern of Environmental Variables and Photosynthesis for Barrow (71 o N), Alaska MJcm -2 d -1 40x10 2 Mean solar radiation 20x cm o C Snow depth Depth of thaw Air temperature range Radiation absorbed by plants Snow depth J F M A M J J A S O N D Month (Chapin and Shaver 1985)
50 1 - Temperatures are cold and overlap freezing MJcm -2 d -1 40x10 2 Mean solar radiation 20x cm o C Snow depth Depth of thaw Air temperature range Radiation absorbed by plants Snow depth J F M A M J J A S O N D Month (Chapin and Shaver 1985)
51 2 - Short growing season MJcm -2 d -1 40x10 2 Mean solar radiation 20x cm o C Snow depth Depth of thaw Air temperature range Radiation absorbed by plants Snow depth J F M A M J J A S O N D Month (Chapin and Shaver 1985)
52 3 Thin active layer MJcm -2 d -1 40x10 2 Mean solar radiation 20x cm o C Snow depth Depth of thaw Air temperature range Radiation absorbed by plants Snow depth J F M A M J J A S O N D Month (Chapin and Shaver 1985)
53 4 Declining solar radiation MJcm -2 d -1 40x10 2 Mean solar radiation 20x cm o C Snow depth Depth of thaw Air temperature range Radiation absorbed by plants Snow depth J F M A M J J A S O N D Month (Chapin and Shaver 1985)
54 MJcm -2 d -1 40x x cm Warming Will: 1 Push temperatures beyond freezing 2 Longer growing season 3 More nutrients available 4 More solar radiation available o C Snow depth Mean solar radiation Air temperature range Radiation absorbed by plants Snow depth J F M A M J J A S O N D Month Depth of thaw (Chapin and Shaver 1985)
55 Observed Change
56 Greening trend (NDVI) Spring temp. trend (Myneni et al. 1997)
57 Forest growth in northern Sweden temperature has increased but land use has also changed Arctic Report Card 2007
58 Shrub expansion Alaska (Sturm et al. 2001)
59 Summary of Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion Arctic Report Card 2007
60 Summary of Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion Arctic Report Card 2007
61 Summary of Observed Tree and Shrub Expansion Arctic Report Card 2007
62 Influence of vegetation Increased absorbed radiation Denser Plant Layer deeper thaw shallower thaw frozen soil frozen soil
63 It is estimated that shrub and tree expansion may magnify regional warming by a factor of 2-7 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
64 My Research
65
66 Barrow Atqasuk
67 Data Collection Abiotic Plant Community Ecosystem
68 500 Thawing degree-days (TDD sm ) Warmed Control Chambers caused significant increases in Thawing degree-days over the summer Jun 15-Jun 23-Jun 1-Jul 9-Jul 17-Jul 25-Jul 2-Aug 10-Aug 18-Aug Hollister & Webber Global Change Biology 11:
69 Warmed Control Chambers caused significant increases in Thawing degree-days over the summer Hollister & Webber Global Change Biology 11: Integrates time and temperature Thawing degree-days (TDDsm) 7-Jun 15-Jun 23-Jun 1-Jul 9-Jul 17-Jul 25-Jul 2-Aug 10-Aug 18-Aug
70 Length of inflorescence Luzula confusa
71 Inflorescence length (cm) Luzula confusa Julian day (day of the year) Symbol - site AD AW BD BW Line - year Fill/Color - treatment control warmed cm
72 Inflorescence length (cm) Inflorescence length (cm) Julian day (day of the year) Luzula confusa TDD sm (Time and Temperature) Symbol - site AD AW BD BW Line - year Fill/Color - treatment control warmed cm Hollister et al Ecology 86:
73 Increased flowering
74 Community Changes
75 Walker, Wahren, Hollister et al PNAS 103:
76
77 Summary Diagram Key Control Warmed forb short graminoid lichen bryophyte erect shrub tall graminoid
78 A general increase in canopy height due to: an increase in stature of previously existing species a shift in composition from lichens and bryophytes toward shrubs and graminoids Key Control forb short graminoid lichen bryophyte Warmed erect shrub tall graminoid Hollister PhD Thesis
79 Barrow Atqasuk wet dry wet dry Ecosystem Measures Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) of carbon control warmed Oberbauer et al Ecological Monographs 77:
80 Summary of changes in tundra Increased biomass (denser, bigger individuals, more shrubs and tall grasses) increased solar absorption changing thaw depth Changing species interactions Loss of biodiversity Changing permafrost Release of carbon C Increased absorbed radiation changing thaw Denser Taller Plant Layer Fewer Species frozen soil
81 Summary of changes in tundra 2-7X 2-7 warmer X regional warming Increased biomass (denser, bigger individuals, more shrubs and tall grasses) increased solar absorption changing thaw depth Changing species interactions Loss of biodiversity Changing permafrost Release of carbon Potentially as much as Fossil Fuel Burning C Increased absorbed radiation changing thaw Denser Taller Plant Layer Fewer Species frozen soil
82 Behavior change No behavior change IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 2007.
83 Politics Bush Clinton Bush
84 Al Gore Understanding the issue
85 Katrina Why we should care
86 Its gettin hot! The Arctic The singing canary
87 Important Point IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
88 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
89 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
90 Stern Report 2006
91 Stern Report published in 2006 Commissioned by the British Government Using the results from formal economic models, the Review estimates that if we don t act, the overall costs and risks of climate change will be equivalent to losing at least 5% of global GDP each year, now and forever. If a wider range of risks and impacts is taken into account, the estimates of damage could rise to 20% of GDP or more. In contrast, the costs of action reducing greenhouse gas emissions to avoid the worst impacts of climate change can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year.
92 Questions. C.E. Tweedie
93 Further Information: The GVSU Arctic Ecology Program Arctic Report Card IPCC Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Articles in the Journal Nature The new face of the Arctic Nature 8 March : A world melting from the top down Nature 12 April :
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