2 ways to organize relationship between executive and legislature. Executive Legislative Elections. Parliamentary Government

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1 Executive Legislative Elections 2 ways to organize relationship between executive and legislature Head govt. elected by Fixed term for head government? Yes No Yes Hybrid I Parliament ary systems legislature? No Presidenti al systems Hybrid II 1 2 Parliamentary Government 3 4

2 Defin characteristic A Hypothetical Cabinet Executive is directly controlled by the legislature Finan ce Econ. Aff. Interio r Labou r Healt h Agri The parliament is elected by the citizens, and then appoints the government or cabinet Prime Minist er Deput y PM For. Minist er Min, Defen se Justic e Educat ion Envior n 5 6 A Legislature: The German Bundestag after the 1987 Elections Party Perc. Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) Social Democrats (SPD) Free Democrats Greens Minor Parties Total Since The government serves at the pleasure the legislature in a parliamentary system, the cabinet put forward must retain the confidence the legislative assembly. - In some systems it must survive an investiture vote, some it must not. - But either way, it must retain support on a day to day basis. 7 8

3 Typically, we think confidence as be assured by The support a majority members the legislature. Given party discipline, this means that a government must obtain a commitment support from the leaders enough parties to command a majority the seats the legislature In the German Bundestag after the 1987 Elections, any combinations parties controll 249 ((497/2)+1 or more seats was a majority 9 10 There are many possible coalitions 1 CDU, SPD CDU, FDP CDU, Greens SPD, FDP SPD, Greens CDU, SPD, FDP CDU, SPD, Greens SPD, FDP, Green 274 But remember, life s easier if you control a majority (249) the seats 1 CDU, SPD CDU, FDP CDU, Greens SPD, FDP SPD, Greens CDU, SPD, FDP CDU, SPD, Greens SPD, FDP, Green

4 Are all majority governments equally plausible? Surplus 1 CDU, SPD CDU, Greens SPD, Greens CDU, SPD, FDP CDU, SPD, Greens SPD, FDP, Green To answer that we need to Think about the process government formation Think about what the goals the actors involved in that process Formation process Typically, a formateur is chosen The formateur is the person who manages the bargain process that leads to the formation the government The selection the formateur differs across countries Country Formateur designated by Process Greece Constitution leader largest party is first, leader second largest party is next, etc. UK, Ireland Tradition leader outgo government is first formateur, even after los an election! Finland Head State President chooses formateur Netherlands Head State Queen choose informateur who recommends formateur 15 16

5 The bottom line, ten, is that A leader from the party winn the most seats, acts as formateur This happens either by rule, by tradition, or as the result strategic behavior Leaders most successful party can credibly threaten to veto any proposal by other formateurs Goals actors: Alternative views Office-seek form cabinet with the hope secur the largest number ministerial portfolios Policy-seek form cabinet with hope produc policies that maximize one s policy goals If you were a CDU leader and lived in an fice-seek world, and were named formateur, what would you propose? Answer: Surplus 1 CDU, SPD CDU, Greens SPD, Greens CDU, SPD, FDP What ever would allow you to put together a coalition that would 1. command a majority the seats in the legislature, 2. Give you the most ministerial portfolios possible 7 CDU, SPD, Greens SPD, FDP, Green

6 Bargain process The above logic, predicts Minimum Size Coalitions Formateur (represent largest party) makes fers to leaders other parties. Content fer is I ll give you X ministerial posts in exchange for a promise legislative support equal to the size the number seats your party controls. Presumably, the leaders parties controll a large number seats will require a larger number ministerial posts before they say yes When Formateur has gotten enough party leaders to say yes, the government has formed Surplus 1 CDU, SPD CDU, Greens SPD, Greens CDU, SPD, 6 FDP CDU, SPD, 7 Greens SPD, FDP, 8 Green Minimum size coaltion Which coalition actually formed? N o. Members 1 Seat s Control led Surpl us CDU, SPD CDU, 3 Greens SPD, 5 Greens CDU, 6 SPD, FDP CDU, SPD, 7 Greens SPD, FDP, 8 Green Minimum size coalition 23 Prime Minister Kohl The German Cabinet after the 1987 Election Finance Stoltenberg ) For. Minist er Gensc her Econ. Aff. Bangem ann Min, Defense Worner Interio r Zimmer man Justic e Engelh ard Labour Blum Educati on Mellem an Riesenhu ber Health Sussm uth Envior n Topfer Agri Kiec hle (CS U) Deput y PM Gensc her Hous Schneide r 24

7 What happened? What happened? Maybe leaders aren t pure fice-seekers? If you were a CDU leader and lived in a policy-seek world, and were named formateur, what would you propose? Surplus 1 CDU, SPD CDU, Greens SPD, Greens CDU, SPD, FDP CDU, SPD, Greens SPD, FDP, Green Social To answer that you d need to know someth about the distribution parties along salient issue dimensions Greens SPD CDU FDP Cut 27 28

8 Now, know what you know about the policy position parties, what would you do? Surplus 1 CDU, SPD CDU, Greens SPD, Greens CDU, SPD, FDP CDU, SPD, Greens SPD, FDP, Green Minimal connected coaltion Does this mean that policy-seek dominates fice-seek in Germany? Social Social Hard to say since CDU didn t have to totally ignore fice-seek to get a policy closer to their ideal point they accepted a 4 seat surplus majority in exchange for a policy outcome closer to their idea point Gree ns Gree ns SP D SP D Policy? MS C CD U/C SU CD U/C SU FD P FD P 4 seat surplus Cut Policy? Cut 31 So, all majorities are not equal Surplus Type 1 CDU, SPD Minimal winn Minimal Connecte 3 CDU, Greens Minimum size Minority 5 SPD, Greens Minority 6 CDU, SPD, FDP Surplus Majority 7 CDU, SPD, Greens Surplus Majority 8 SPD, FDP, Green Minimal Winn 32

9 Cabinet Formation Appears to be the product complex bargain game in which actors trade policy concessions for access to cabinet portfolios Party leaders have a choice, join forces with parties you disagree with and govern Stay ideologically pure, act as opposition party, and wait for your turn to govern In light this tradef Coalitions are likely to be minimal connected coalitions, not necessarily minimal winn coalitions The Essence Parliamentary Rule is Cabinets have to worry about a vote no confidence If cabinet pushes legislature too far, the MPs can make the government fall MPs have to worry about the Prime Minister dissolv parliament and call for new elections New elections may make some parties unnecessary in form new government Can have reputational consequences for parties and individuals Party discipline means cabinet members can punish MP s that are not loyal Since cabinets serve at the pleasure the legislature, the legislature is in the driver s seat. Thus, But, since cabinet member control the political futures MPs, the cabinet is in the drivers seat 35 36

10 So, who rules in Parliamentary systems, the cabinet or the legislature? From 1945 to % the bills submitted by the cabinet were approved by Britain s House Commons But is this evidence a strong cabinet or a strong House? A weak cabinet may submit only the bills a house would pass Suppose cabinet wants low social spend, and parliament wants high Cabin et Propose cuts Do Noth Propose increase s Parl Parl Approve Reject Approve Reject If Parliament can credibly threaten to reject bills, and the cabinet is the agenda setter, only bills that will pass will be proposed Cabin et Propose cuts Do noth Propose increase s Parl Parl Approve Reject Approve So, a high legislative success rate is not necessarily an indication power But, since not cabinet members are allowed to fer amendments on bills, the approval amendments might fer some relevant evidence. Reject 39 40

11 Cabinet amendments are much more successful than non-cabinet ones Fate Amendment 1967 to 1971 in Britain Not Approved Approved Cabinet Member Other member House (But, the cost failure may be different for non-cabinet members, so..) Evaluat Parliamentarism Advantages: Can respond quickly to changed circumstances with direct policy response Lines responsibility clear Disadvantages Few protections for minority- Danger tyranny the majority. Coalition government could be unstable In part because tyranny the minority Small parties may try to blackmail or free-ride on large parties Keep in mind, there are varieties parliamentarism Strength Parliamentarism Present Majority Governments (Common in 2 party systems) Quick Policy Response Clear Responsibility Coalition Governments (Common in multiparty systems) Minorities Powerfully Representated Weakness Parliamentarism Present Unprotected minorities Cabinet Instability 43