The Outlook for Energy:

Transcription

1 The Outlook for Energy: A View to 24 Tahmid Mizan June 27, 216 The Outlook for Energy includes Exxon Mobil Corporation s internal estimates and forecasts of energy demand, supply, and trends through 24 based upon internal data and analyses as well as publicly available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. Work on the report was conducted throughout 215. This presentation includes forward looking statements. Actual future conditions and results (including energy demand, energy supply, the relative mix of energy across sources, economic sectors and geographic regions, imports and exports of energy) could differ materially due to changes in economic conditions, technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading Factors Affecting Future Results in the Investors section of our website at This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. 1

2 Global fundamentals 2

3 Global Trends Continue to Evolve 125% Growth from 214 Level Percent GDP 1% 75% 5% 25% Demand Population % Carbon Emissions 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

4 Energy Fuels Human Development U.N. Human Development Index 213 Index 1. Norway Germany United States.75 Brazil Bangladesh India China.5 Nigeria.25 Niger Source: United Nations, ExxonMobil estimates Energy Use per Capita (Thousand BTU/person/day) 4 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

5 Global GDP Shifts Toward Developing Nations OECD* Rest of World Key Growth India China 2.% per year 3.4% 3.5% 5.5% 5.% $72 Trillion (21$) Key Growth countries include: Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Egypt, Thailand, South Africa, Iran, Mexico*, Turkey* ~$15 Trillion (21$) 5 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

6 Global Progress Drives Demand Population GDP Energy Demand Billion Trillion 21$ Quadrillion BTUs Energy Savings 6 3 Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 6 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

7 Technology Helps Us Do More With Less Global Average Energy Intensity Thousand BTUs per dollar GDP (21$) ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

8 Emissions 8

9 CO 2 Policy Assumptions Vary by Region 24 CO 2 Proxy Cost < 1 $/ton ~ 2 $/ton ~ 35 $/ton ~ 8 $/ton 9 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

10 CO Energy 2 Emissions Mix Shifts Plateau to Lower-Carbon Fuels Global Energy Mix Percent Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes 1% Biomass 4 Renewables 75% Nuclear 3 Rest of World Gas Key Growth 5% 2 India Coal China 25% 1 Oil OECD* % *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 1 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

11 Transportation 11

12 Transportation Demand Sector Demand MBDOE 75 Rail 5 Marine Aviation Commercial Heavy Duty 25 Light Duty ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

13 Light Duty Vehicle Efficiency Fleet by Type Million Average Vehicle Efficiency On-Road Miles per Gallon 18 Elec/Plug-in/Fuel Cell Hybrid Natural Gas & LPG Diesel Gasoline 45 Average Fleet Europe U.S ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

14 Industrial 14

15 Industrial Demand By Sector By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs Quadrillion BTUs Chemical 2 Electricity Biomass Coal 1 Heavy Industry 1 Gas Energy Industry Oil Other ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

16 Chemicals Demand Grows Globally By Sector MBDOE 4 By Region MBDOE Other Chemicals Asia Pacific 2 2 Africa Middle East 1 Steam Cracking 1 Russia/Caspian Latin America Europe Fertilizer North America ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

17 Chemicals Demand Sees Significant Growth By Sector Ethylene Production MBDOE MTA Other Chemicals 2 Rest of World 2 1 Steam Cracking 1 Asia Pacific Fertilizer North America 17 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

18 Chemicals Energy Demand by Region North America MBDOE Europe MBDOE Asia Pacific MBDOE Other Oil Naphtha Gas Liquids Gas Coal ' '1 '2 '3 '4 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 ' '1 '2 '3 '4 Electricity/Heat 18 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

19 Electricity generation 19

20 Electricity Grows in Developing Economies Electricity Demand by Region Thousand TWh 4 Per Capita Demand MWh per person United States 3 Rest of World Key Growth India China OECD* United States China Europe Key Growth India *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 2 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

21 Global Electricity Generation Mix Evolves By Generation Type Thousand TWh 4 Global Capacity Utilized GW 15 3 Gas 1 2 Coal Nuclear Wind & Solar Oil Other Renewables Nuclear Wind Solar 21 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

22 A Shift in Electricity Generation Change in Electricity Net Delivered Thousand TWh Gas Net Wind/Solar Nuclear Other Renewables Coal OECD* China India Key Growth Rest of World Oil *Mexico and Turkey included in Key Growth countries 22 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

23 Two Paths to CO 2 Reduction United States Generation Share Percent Germany Generation Share Percent CO 2 Intensity of Generation g CO 2 /kwh delivered 1% Oil Other Renewables 1% 8 Wind & Solar 75% Nuclear 75% % Gas 5% 4 25% 25% 2 Coal % % United States Germany 23 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

24 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Electricity Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Generation 24 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

25 Electricity Generation Leads Growth Primary Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs Other Renewables Biomass Nuclear Coal Gas Oil Electricity Industrial Transportation Res/Comm Generation 25 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

26 Global Demand 24 By Fuel Quadrillion BTUs 25.7% Average Growth / Yr %.9% % 1 5.3% 2.9% 4.8% 1.3% Oil Gas Coal Biomass Nuclear Solar / Wind / Biofuels Hydro / Geo 26 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

27 Supply 27

28 Liquids Supply World Supply by Type MBDOE Crude & Condensate Resource Estimates Trillion Barrels Biofuels Other Natural Gas Liquids Tight Oil Oil Sands Deepwater New Conventional C&C Development Conventional Crude & Condensate Developed Conventional Crude & Condensate Source: USGS and IEA historical estimates 28 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

29 Major New Liquids by Region MBDOE Biofuels 2 Oil Sands Tight Oil Deepwater NGLs North America Latin America Middle East Africa 29 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

30 Remaining Global Gas Resource North America Europe OECD 4.2 Russia/ Caspian* 5. 1 TCF World 2.9 Unconventional Latin America Conventional Source: IEA; YE 214 *Includes Europe Non OECD 3.5 Africa Middle East Asia Pacific 3 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

31 Unconventional Gas Technology U.S. Dry Gas Production BCFD 8 Rig Count 1 Potential Improvements via Technology Water Recycle Slick Water Pad Drilling Spudder Rigs Vertical Simultaneous Integration Operations Automated LNG rigs Drilling Dual Laterals Computer Modelling Reduced Emissions Completions Increase Lateral Length Artificial Lift Downspacing Frac Spacing Source: Wood Mackenzie / EIA / Baker Hughes 31 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

32 Key Energy Outlook Themes Energy is fundamental to standards of living. Developing nations lead gains in GDP and living standards. Economics and policies impact the fuel mix. Oil remains the world s primary fuel through 24. Natural gas grows more than any other energy source. Technology has the highest potential and greatest uncertainty. 32 ExxonMobil 216 Outlook for Energy

33 For more information, visit exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook or download the ExxonMobil app 33

34