Community College Student Success. What the Research Tells Us: Progress

Transcription

1 The Completion Arch: Measuring Community College Student Success What the Research Tells Us: Progress Measures of student success in community colleges traditionally have focused on the two bookends of the student experience: enrollment at the beginning and completion or transfer to a four-year college at the end. A growing number of researchers, however, are examining intermediate measures of progress. As institutional, system, and state student-level databases have grown in number, breadth, and sophistication, it is increasingly common for college and state officials to measure and report community college students interim accomplishments. Why Measure Progress? There are several reasons to track these measures of progress. First, community college officials can use the results to encourage behaviors correlated with measures of success such as completion and transfer. They can concentrate resources on groups with historically low rates of progress and even target assistance to individual students failing to meet milestones and momentum points in a timely fashion. Next, some progress measures may be inherently valuable, especially given the large proportion of community college students not seeking awards or transfers or those who are unsure of their goals (see What the Research Tells Us: Transfer and Completion). For such students, earning a certain number of college-level credits, for example, may be a goal in and of itself, whether their ultimate objective is to improve their workforce skills, cultivate personal interests, or something else. To illustrate, a recent study estimated that women and men who left community college without completing a credential had a gain in earnings of 10 percent and 9 percent, respectively, compared with individuals who never attended at all (Belfield & Bailey, 2011). Finally, community colleges use these progress measures to demonstrate to lawmakers and taxpayers student accomplishments not fully captured by traditional accountability measures such as enrollment counts and graduation rates (Bearer-Friend, 2009). WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 1

2 Researchers have organized many of these indicators of progress into a conceptual model and framework that groups intermediate measures of progress into milestones and momentum points (Ewell, 2006; Leinbach & Jenkins, 2008). Although studies differ on specific terms (Offenstein & Shulock, 2010), here milestones refers to a set of precollege and college-level achievements, excluding transfer to a four-year college and completion of certificates and degrees (which are grouped in their own separate area). Momentum points, as used here, refers to other student behaviors correlated with milestones, transfer, and completion. Pre-College Milestones As described in the Developmental Education Placement literature review, most entering community college students take at least one developmental education course in mathematics or English (reading, writing, or both), and many take multiple courses in one or more subjects (Bailey, Jeong, & Cho, 2010). Passing these courses is often a requirement for transfer to a four-year institution or earning a certificate or associate degree. For these students, passing the first developmental course in a subject is their first community college milestone. Completing the developmental course sequence in a subject by passing the highest-level developmental course constitutes the next milestone and the final pre-college milestone. For students who start in the highestlevel course in a developmental sequence, often referred to as one level below college, these milestones are one and the same, but many others start in courses two or more levels below college level. Results from the Achieving the Dream sample show that students starting two levels below college are less likely to complete their developmental sequence in a given subject within three years of starting college, and students who start three or more levels below college are even less likely (Bailey et al., 2010). College Milestones After completing a developmental sequence in a subject, a student s next milestones are enrollment in and completion of that subject s gatekeeper course, the first or lowest-level required college-level course to be taken after finishing the developmental sequence. As the name implies, gatekeeper courses often prevent community college students from advancing to completion or transfer, but some research suggests that the chief barrier to passing gatekeeper courses is that many students never enroll in them in the first place. Among Achieving the Dream students who completed a developmental sequence, only 63 percent of those finishing developmental mathematics and 72 percent finishing developmental reading even enrolled in gatekeeper courses for those WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 2

3 subjects within three years of starting college. But those who did enroll were fairly successful, with 79 percent passing gatekeeper mathematics and 75 percent passing gatekeeper reading (Bailey et al., 2010). A study of Virginia community college students found that after controlling for academic readiness, those who passed the gatekeeper mathematics course were more than twice as likely to transfer to a four-year college, but those who passed the gatekeeper writing course were not (Roksa & Calcagno, 2008, table 4). In addition to completing these specific courses, numerous studies have found early credit accumulation to be positively correlated with completion and transfer (Calcagno, Crosta, Bailey, & Jenkins, 2006; Chen, 2005; Moore & Shulock, 2009; Roksa & Calcagno, 2008). For example, among first-time, degree-seeking community college students in Florida, those who earned 24 or more credits within 5 years were up to 15 times as likely to transfer to a four-year college as were students who earned fewer credits, and this effect was even stronger for underprepared students (Roksa & Calcagno, 2008, tables 4, 5). Results like these are hardly surprising given that credits are the building blocks of educational attainment. An associate degree typically requires 60 credits of college-level coursework (Moore, Shulock, & Offenstein, 2009). Credit requirements for certificates vary widely, from fewer than 6 credits to more than 60 credits (Bosworth, 2010). Many certificate programs are defined in terms of required clock or contact hours, though the majority (51 percent) of certificates completed required less than one year to complete and most of the rest (41 percent) required less than two years (Horn & Li, 2009, calculated by author from table 1). Similarly, the number of college-level credits required for transfer to a four-year college with junior-level or upper-division standing defies generalization, because precise requirements vary widely across states and institutions and sometimes even within programs at the same institution. California public universities, for example, require community college transfers to earn at least 60 credits (Moore et al., 2009), whereas Washington state requires 30 credits (or 45 credits on the quarter system) to be transfer ready (Leinbach & Jenkins, 2008, note 6). The specific indicators of credit accumulation reported here depend on the source, but they range from at least 12 credits to 42 credits earned within two to six years. The last college milestone reported here is student persistence, which measures sustained enrollment in postsecondary education. The one-year retention measure from IPEDS, defined as the percentage of community college students beginning in the fall who are enrolled (or have completed a credential) by the next fall, is the most comprehensive in that it includes the population of all community college students beginning in fall term and is available for all 50 states. On the other hand, it has several limitations: it excludes students starting in terms other than fall (see Enrollment and WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 3

4 Transfer and Completion literature reviews); it counts students transferring to other institutions by the second fall as not persisting; it does not measure persistence past the second fall term; it does not distinguish between students enrolled continuously from fall term to fall term from those who stop out (do not enroll) in between; and it can be disaggregated only by a limited number of student characteristics. Other measures reported here help overcome these limitations. Achieving the Dream measures persistence to the end of the first, second, and third year, and it requires continuous enrollment each regular term, though it cannot account for students who transfer to other colleges. The Beginning Postsecondary Students (BPS) Longitudinal Study measures persistence up to the end of the sixth year after initial enrollment, including students who transfer, and can be disaggregated by a larger number of student characteristics. Continuous enrollment across years, categorized here as a momentum point, is discussed in the following section. Momentum Points Like milestones, momentum points are defined enrollment and coursetaking patterns. Though not necessarily achievements in and of themselves, they tend to be predictors of future success, including attaining milestones, earning credentials, and transfer to a four-year college. For example, Achieving the Dream students who enrolled full time in their first term were more likely to complete a credential, transfer, and persist in college over the first three years than those who initially enrolled part time (Clery, 2010; Topper & Lee, 2010). Another indicator of momentum is earning college credits during summer terms. Studies have found that community college students who earned credits in the summer were considerably more likely to transfer to a four-year college and to earn an associate degree than students who did not, even after controlling for student background and other academic behaviors (Adelman, 2005, tables 32, 33; Offenstein, Moore, & Shulock, 2010). Continuous enrollment is another momentum point reported here, as research suggests that community college students who enroll continuously are more likely to transfer to a four-year college and to earn an associate degree (Adelman, 2005, tables 32, 33; Offenstein et al., 2010, figure 15). Unlike some definitions of persistence, continuous enrollment typically requires students to be enrolled in every term except summer and brief winter terms (Clery, 2010, notes 4, 7; Skomsvold, Radford, & Berkner, 2011, p. G8). This distinction can be subtle, but it is easily illustrated with an example. A student who first enrolled in the fall, did not enroll the following spring, then enrolled again the following fall would be considered to have persisted in the IPEDS definition of retention, but would not be considered to have enrolled continuously for one or more years. WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 4

5 Several indicators measure community college students course completion rate, such as the percentage of students who passed at least 80 percent of the courses they took in their first year (from several states). These momentum points are meaningful predictors of future achievement because students who withdraw from or repeat more than 20 percent of their courses are less likely to transfer to a four-year college, to earn an associate degree, or to earn a bachelor s degree (Adelman, 2005, tables 32, 33, 42; Offenstein et al., 2010, figure 14). Forthcoming Indicators For enrolled and prospective community college students lacking a high school diploma, earning a GED (General Educational Development) or other high school diploma equivalent is often the first pre-college milestone. Even researchers who dispute its academic and employment value concede that a GED enables otherwise ineligible individuals to attend college (Cameron & Heckman, 1993). It is anticipated that updates to this website and report will include indicators of GED completion. Another set of momentum point indicators still under development is early warning signs for students presumed to be at high risk of dropping out of community college. Just as students who pass the milestones and momentum points above are more likely to graduate and transfer to four-year institutions, students who trigger these early warning signs are more likely to drop out. Advance signals of leaving community college might include such behaviors as late registration (Offenstein et al., 2010, figure 15), delaying entry into a program of study (Moore & Shulock, 2011), earning poor grades, or failure to file for financial aid. Colleges may be able to identify such academically at-risk individual students for special attention. As these early warning signs are developed and published by states and organizations, they will be added to the Progress area here. A final set of forthcoming momentum point indicators, called student learning outcomes, attempt to quantify directly what community college students are learning. The Voluntary Framework of Accountability (VFA), an initiative led by the American Association of Community Colleges, plans to assess students in eight domains, including communication, information literacy, and global understanding and citizenship (Dougherty, Hare, & Natow, 2009; Voluntary Framework of Accountability (VFA), 2011). (VFA is supported in part by the College Board, publisher of Step by Step.) These student learning outcomes will be added to Step by Step as they become available. The rising number and salience of progress indicators holds great promise for improving outcomes for community college students, not only by pinpointing where students fall off the path to obtaining credentials and transferring, but also by identifying successful WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 5

6 practices that help students advance. Over time, programs and policies demonstrated to be effective can be scaled up and replicated. By focusing on intermediate measures of progress, community colleges may be able to offer students better guidance as they move from initial enrollment to graduation and transfer to four-year colleges. WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 6

7 References Adelman, C. (2005). Moving into town and moving on: The community college in the lives of traditional-aged students. Washington, DC: Office of Vocational and Adult Education, U.S. Department of Education. Retrieved June 25, 2010, from Bailey, T., Jeong, D. W., & Cho, S.-W. (2010). Referral, enrollment, and completion in developmental education sequences in community colleges. Economics of Education Review, 29(2), Retrieved September 26, 2011, from Bearer-Friend, J. (2009, November 9). Measuring student achievement at postsecondary institutions. Issue Brief. Washington, DC: National Governors Association Center for Best Practices. Retrieved June 24, 2011, from Belfield, C. R., & Bailey, T. (2011). The benefits of attending community college: A review of the evidence. Community College Review, 39(1), Bosworth, B. (2010, December). Certificates count: An analysis of sub-baccalaureate certificates. Washington, DC: Complete College America. Retrieved June 26, 2011, from 0Docs/Certificates%20Count%20FINAL% pdf. Calcagno, J. C., Crosta, P., Bailey, T., & Jenkins, D. (2006, October). Stepping stones to a degree: The impact of enrollment pathways and milestones on community college student outcomes. CCRC Working Paper No. 4. New York: Columbia University, Teachers College, Community College Research Center. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from Cameron, S. V., & Heckman, J. J. (1993). The nonequivalence of high school equivalents. Journal of Labor Economics, 11(1), Chen, X. (2005). First-generation students in postsecondary education: A look at their college transcripts (NCES ). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 7

8 Clery, S. (2010, March/April). Attendance and completion patterns. Data Notes: Keeping Informed about Achieving the Dream Data. Silver Spring, MD: Achieving the Dream. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from Dougherty, K. J., Hare, R., & Natow, R. S. (2009, November). Performance accountability systems for community colleges: Lessons for the Voluntary Framework of Accountability for community colleges: Report to the College Board. New York: Columbia University, Teachers College, Community College Research Center. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from Ewell, P. (2006, January 10-12). Reaching consensus on common indicators: A feasibility analysis. Paper presented at the Using State Data to Improve Community College Student Success and Attainment State Student Data Project for Bridges and AtD, San Antonio, TX. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from 6.pdf. Horn, L., & Li, X. (2009). Changes in postsecondary awards below the bachelor s degree: 1997 to 2007 (NCES ). Washington DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Leinbach, D. T., & Jenkins, D. (2008, January). Using longitudinal data to increase community college student success: A guide to measuring milestone and momentum point attainment. CCRC Research Tools No. 2. New York: Columbia University, Teachers College, Community College Research Center. Retrieved November 1, 2010, from Moore, C., & Shulock, N. (2009, September). Student progress toward degree completion: Lessons from the research literature. Sacramento, CA: California State University, Sacramento, Institute for Higher Education Leadership & Policy. Retrieved November 1, 2010, from Moore, C., & Shulock, N. (2011, August). Sense of direction: The importance of helping community college students select and enter a program of study. Sacramento, CA: California State University, Sacramento, Institute for Higher Education Leadership & Policy. Retrieved September 14, 2011, from WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 8

9 Moore, C., Shulock, N., & Offenstein, J. (2009, October). Steps to success: Analyzing milestone achievement to improve community college student outcomes. Sacramento, CA: California State University, Sacramento, Institute for Higher Education Leadership & Policy. Retrieved November 1, 2010, from Offenstein, J., Moore, C., & Shulock, N. (2010, April). Advancing by degrees: A framework for increasing college completion. Sacramento, CA and Washington, DC: Institute for Higher Education Leadership & Policy and The Education Trust. Retrieved June 24, 2011, from Offenstein, J., & Shulock, N. (2010, September). Taking the next step: The promise of intermediate measures for meeting postsecondary completion goals. Boston: Jobs for the Future. Retrieved November 1, 2010, from Roksa, J., & Calcagno, J. C. (2008, June). Making the transition to four-year institutions: Academic preparation and transfer. CCRC Working Paper No. 13. New York: Columbia University, Teachers College, Community College Research Center. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from Skomsvold, P., Radford, A. W., & Berkner, L. (2011). Six-year attainment, persistence, transfer, retention, and withdrawal rates of students who began postsecondary education in (NCES ). Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics, Institute of Education Sciences, U.S. Department of Education. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from Topper, A., & Lee, J. (2010, September/October). Outcomes of first-year persisting students. Data Notes: Keeping Informed about Achieving the Dream Data. Achieving the Dream. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from e912e9dd7c8f.asset? Voluntary Framework of Accountability (VFA). (2011). Voluntary Framework of Accountability preliminary technical manual v.1.0: Proposed measures for pilot testing. American Association of Community Colleges. Retrieved September 27, 2011, from %20Technical%20Definitions%20Manual%20v_1_0.pdf. WHAT THE RESEARCH TELLS US: PROGRESS 9