Production Outlook by Major Basin, and Facilities Options, Edward Kelly, IHS Inc.

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1 IHS ENERGY Presentation North American Natural Gas Production Outlook by Major Basin, and Facilities Options, Edward Kelly, IHS Inc. February 215 ihs.com Ed Kelly, Managing Director, ,

2 Contents OUTLINE THE RESOURCE BASE AND COST STRUCTURE The Marcellus/Utica, and All Else A PLAY BY PLAY TOUR of GAS PRODUCTION POTENTIAL Marcellus Utica Haynesville COMMENTS

3 A Larger perspective: North American gas supply is plentiful and low cost, and the resource base is not static Breakeven Henry Hub Price for natural gas resources in 17 analyzed unconventional plays 162 Tcf Consumed Consumption (122 Tcf) Consumption (4 Tcf) IHS estimates total North American resources at about 3,4 Tcf Source: IHS CERA, Fueling North America s Energy Future. Note: Proved, possible, and potential resources

4 Updated Resource Estimates in Select Identified Plays; 515 Tcf at well below $4. North American Current Consumption: ~3 Tcf per year High Commercial Resource: >9 Tcf (>3 years) Montney 56 Tcf 7 Bcfd - $2.74 Duvernay 3 Tcf 1 Bcfd - $3.96 Granite Wash 33 Tcf 2 Bcfd - $2.2 Woodford 2 Tcf 3 Bcfd - $3.64 Eagle Ford 47 Tcf 6 Bcfd - $2.7 Source: IHS CERA Marcellus/Utica 211 Tcf 3 Bcfd - $3.29 Fayetteville 24 Tcf 4 Bcfd - $2.57 Haynesville Tier 1 57 Tcf 6 Bcfd - $3.1 Barnett 37 Tcf 4 Bcfd - $3.89 4

5 Comparative Production Development Pace Key US lower-48 unconventional plays - "time zero chart" (Bcf per day) Barnett (January 1995) Fayetteville (July 25) Haynesville (January 26) Marcellus and Utica (July 27) Jonah (January 1996) Pinedale (January 1998) Eagle Ford (January 26) Bakken (January 29) Granite Wash (January 27) Permian horizontal oil plays (January 29) Montney (March 25) Source: IHS Energy 214 IHS 5

6 Gas breakeven prices Gas breakevens for select plays (2) (4) (6) (8) 6 Bakken Woodford Cana SCOOP Oil Duvernay Wet Gas Bone Spring Wolfcamp Midland Montney Wet Gas Eagle Ford East Wet Gas Marcellus SW Woodford Cana SCOOP WG Marcellus NE Niobrara Horizontal Eagle Ford West Wet Gas Wolfcamp Delaware Granite Wash Core Marcellus WV East Pinedale Haynesville Tier 1 Marcellus WV West Fayetteville Woodford Arkoma Utica Wet Gas Haynesville Tier 2 Woodford Cana Traditional Marcellus Central Eagle Ford West Dry Gas Barnett Core Piceance Barnett Fringe Gas Granite Wash Non Core Eagle Ford East Dry Gas $/MMBtu Bakken: -$38.66/MMBtu Source: IHS

7 Marcellus Northeast Pennsylvania: Vintage type curves Vintage type curve 8, 7, 6, 7 Mcf/d 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, M2 M6 M1 M14 M18 M22 M26 M3 M34 M38 M42 M46 M5 M54 M Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS EUR oil (Mbbl) EUR gas (MMcf) 4,39 5,762 5,82 6,121 6,842 Well productivity has improved over the years, especially those brought online in 213. Peak rate increased by around 29% while EUR rose by 11% compared with 212 wells. Note: Mbbl = million barrels. Play Workbook Marcellus

8 8 Marcellus Southwest Pennsylvania: Vintage type curves Vintage type curve 7, 6, Mcfe/d 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, M2 M6 M1 M14 M18 M22 M26 M3 M34 M38 M42 M46 M5 M54 M Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS EUR oil (Mbbl) EUR gas (MMcf) 3,62 3,815 3,463 3,476 4,46 Wells in the Marcellus Southwest Pennsylvania have gotten stronger over time, especially those brought online in 213, compared with 212 wells. Both gas peak rate and EUR increased by 27%, while oil peak rate and EUR increased by 68% and 21%, respectively. The improvement is caused by rising lateral length, from 5, ft in 212 to more than 6, ft in 213. EQT Corporation (EQT) is the main driver of these recently high peak gas wells, while Range Resources Corporation (Range) drives up the average of liquids productivity. Play Workbook Marcellus

9 Marcellus Total: Play outlook 9 Play outlook 3, 3 25, 25 MMcfe/d 2, 15, 2 15 Count 1, 1 5, 5 Jan 9 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 27 Jan 3 Jan 33 Jan 36 Jan 39 Dry Gas NGL Oil Rig Count Wells brought online Notes: Oil to Dry Gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe per Barrel Source: IHS Supply Analytics Rig Source: Baker Hughes/Smith Bit 214 IHS Gross production across Marcellus is expected to grow from 12 Bcfe/d in the end of 213 to over 25 Bcfe/d by 22. Play Workbook Marcellus

10 Utica wet gas: Vintage type curves Play Workbook Utica Vintage type curve: Utica Wet Gas 4, 3, Mcfe/d 2, 1, M2 M6 M1 M14 M18 M22 M26 M3 M34 M38 M42 M46 M5 M54 M Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS EUR oil (Thousand bbl) EUR gas (MMcf) 1,998 2,274 1

11 Utica dry gas: Vintage type curves and peak rate evolution Play Workbook Utica Vintage type curve: Utica Dry Gas 14, 12, 1, Mcfe/d 8, 6, 4, 2, M2 M6 M1 M14 M18 M22 M26 M3 M34 M38 M42 M46 M5 M54 M Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS EUR gas (MMcf) 7,64 8,491 11

12 Play Workbook Utica Utica total: Production is expected to peak around 5.4 Bcfe/d in 22 Play outlook: Utica Total 1 6, 8 MMcfe/d 4,5 6 Count 3, 4 1,5 2 Jan 9 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 27 Jan 3 Jan 33 Jan 36 Jan 39 Dry gas NGLs Oil Rig count Wells brought online Notes: Oil to dry gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe/bbl. Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS 12

13 Baseline pipeline expansions in IHS GPCM model Census Region Project ISD MMcf/d Start End REX Seneca Lateral East North Central East North Central TCO Smithfield III Middle Atlantic East South Central TETCO TEAM 214 Expansion (NY/NJ Delivery) Middle Atlantic Middle Atlantic TETCO TEAM South Middle Atlantic East South Central TETCO TEAM 214 Expansion (ELA/WLA Delivery) Middle Atlantic West South Central REX East to West 215 1,2 East North Central East North Central TGP Broad Run Flexibility Project South Atlantic West South Central TETCO OPEN East North Central West South Central Transco Leidy Southeast Middle Atlantic East South Central TCO East Side Expansion Project Middle Atlantic Middle Atlantic Transco Virginia Southside Expansion Middle Atlantic South Atlantic ET Rover Pipeline (OH del) Middle Atlantic East North Central TGT OH LA Access Project East North Central West South Central Algonquin Incremental Market (AIM) Middle Atlantic New England Transco Atlantic Sunrise 217 1,7 Middle Atlantic South Atlantic TCO Leach XPress Project 217 1,5 Middle Atlantic East South Central ET Rover Pipeline (Mich/Dawn del) 217 1,3 Middle Atlantic Eastern Canada TGP SW LA Supply Project 217 1, Middle Atlantic West South Central NEXUS Gas Transmission 217 1, East North Central Eastern Canada Total 13,559 Note: Lists key pipeline expansions (>25 MMcf/d) modeled in GPCM, but not an inclusive list 13

14 Selected Incremental pipeline expansions on offer Census Region Project ISD MMcf/d Start End TGP South System Flexibility Project East South Central West South Central Spectra Atlantic Bridge Project Middle Atlantic New England TGP Northeast Energy Direct Middle Atlantic New England REX Clarington West 217 2,4 East North Central West North Central Prairie State Pipeline 217 1,2 East North Central East North Central Atlantic Coast Pipeline 218 1,5 South Atlantic South Atlantic Total 6,5 Summary MMcf/d Base Case Total 13,559 Overbuild Total 2,59 Incremental Build 6,5 14

15 Haynesville / February 215 Vintage type well decline curves Vintage type curves: Haynesville Tier 1 12, 1, Mcf/d 8, 6, 4, 2, M2 M5 M8 M11 M14 M17 M2 M23 M26 M29 M32 M35 M38 M41 M44 M47 M5 M53 M56 M59 Notes: 214 curves made with data till May 214. Source: IHS Max rate: Gas (Mcf/d) 1,353 9,846 9,123 8,758 9,468 1,247 EUR gas (MMcf) 4,92 5,857 6,16 5,735 6,54 6,642 Source: IHS Selected operators initiated a practice of choking back wells in 21, which resulted in lower starting rates but shallower initial declines. Note: EUR = estimated ultimate recovery. 15

16 Haynesville: Supply outlook Haynesville / February 215 Supply outlook 8, 7, 6, 25 2 MMcfe/d 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Jan 9 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 27 Jan 3 Jan 33 Jan 36 Jan 39 Dry gas NGLs Oil Rig count Wells brought online Count Notes: Oil to dry gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe per barrel Source: IHS Total production in the play is expected to plateau at 5.7 Bcf/d, lower than the play peaked at the end of 211. With associated gas being produced from liquids-rich plays, we expect these levels to sustain and investments into the gas plays to continue where they are. Demand surges might have an impact on the overall supply outlook in the future. 16

17 Barnett Core: Vintage type curves 17 2,5 Vintage type curve: Barnett Core Mcfe/d 2, 1,5 1, 16% 1% 83% Dry gas NGLs Oil Gas composition Methane 92% Ethane (C2) 4.8% Propane (C3) 1.7% Butane (C4) 1% Pentane (C5).2% Hexane (C6).2% Inerts % 5 M2 M6 M1 M14 M18 M22 M26 M3 M34 M38 M42 M46 M5 M54 M58 Source: IHS Supply Analytics IHS Maximum rate: Gas (Mcfe/d) 1,474 1,56 1,823 1,932 2,15 EUR gas (MMcf) 2,59 2,44 2,73 2,91 3,25 The top operators have increased the number of fracturing stages, which has led to improved well productivity. The jump in the 211 curve compared with the 21 curve can be credited to an increase in the number of fracturing stages and proppant use for Chesapeake, Devon Energy, and ExxonMobil, which together contribute more than 6% of the production from this subplay. EUR = estimated ultimate recovery; Mcfe = thousand cubic feet equivalent. Play Workbook Barnett

18 Barnett Play total: Supply outlook 18 Play forecast 8, 3 MMcfe/d 7, 6, 5, 4, Count 3, 2, 1, 1 5 Jan 9 Jul 11 Jan 14 Jul 16 Jan 19 Jul 21 Jan 24 Jul 26 Jan 29 Jul 31 Jan 34 Jul 36 Jan 39 Dry gas NGLs Oil Rig count Wells brought online Notes: Oil to dry gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe/bbl. Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS Limited liquids content and low gas prices are expected to continue to curtail investments in the play. Play Workbook Barnett

19 Montney Production Economics Montney BC Frontier Rich Gas: Single well economics Montney AB Frontier: Single well economics US$ million 5 2 US$/MMBtu US$ million US$/MMBtu Average ECA CNQ Average ECA AAV POU NVA BIR -8 NPV1 Break-even price Notes: NPV1 is calculated with gas price at US$3.5/MMbtu flat and oil price at US$1/bbl flat. Source: IHS 214 IHS NPV1 Break-even price Notes: NPV1 is calculated with gas price at US$3.5/MMbtu flat and oil price at US$1/bbl flat. Source: IHS 214 IHS 19

20 Montney Production Montney BC Frontier Dry Gas: Vintage type curves 6, 5, Mcfe/d 4, 3, 2, 1, M2 M5 M8 M11 M14 M17 M2 M23 M26 M29 M32 M35 M38 M41 M44 M47 M5 M53 M56 M Source: IHS 214 IHS 2

21 Montney Production Montney AB Frontier: Vintage type curves 9, 8, 7, Mcfe/d 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, M2 M5 M8 M11 M14 M17 M2 M23 M26 M29 M32 M35 M38 M41 M44 M47 M5 M53 M56 M Source: IHS 214 IHS 21

22 Montney Production History and Comodity Prices Vintage production with commodity prices 4,5 2 MMcfe/d 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, US$/MMBtu Jan 9 Jul 9 Jan 1 Jul 1 Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Dry gas NGL Oil WTI oil price AECO gas price Notes: Oil to dry gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe per barrel Source: IHS Price sources: DataInsight (gas), US Department of Energy (oil) 214 IHS 22

23 Montney Production and Outlook Montney: Supply outlook 12, 14 1, 12 MMcfe/d 8, 6, 4, Count 2, 2 Jan 9 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 27 Jan 3 Jan 33 Jan 36 Jan 39 Dry gas NGL Oil Rig count Wells brought online Notes: Oil to dry gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe per barrel Source: IHS 214 IHS 23

24 Eagle Ford West: Supply outlook Eagle Ford West/ December 214 Supply outlook: West Eagle Ford Total 1,6 1, Mboe/d 1,2 1, Jan 9 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 27 Jan 3 Jan 33 Jan 36 Jan 39 Dry gas NGL Oil Rig count Wells brought online Count Notes: Oil to dry gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe per barrel Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS Production is expected to peak in December of 22 with 1.5 million barrels of oil equivalent. Oil and gas production from the Eagle Ford West was around 42, barrels per day (bbl/d) and 2.8 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) as of June 214 and is forecasted to reach 665, bbl/d and 4.8 Bcf/d by December

25 Eagle Ford East: Supply outlook Supply outlook 2, Eagle Ford East/ December ,8 Mboe/d 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Jan 9 Jan 12 Jan 15 Jan 18 Jan 21 Jan 24 Jan 27 Jan 3 Jan 33 Jan 36 Jan 39 Dry gas NGL Oil Rig count Wells brought online Count Notes: Oil to dry gas conversion ratio is 5.79 Mcfe per barrel Source: IHS Supply Analytics 214 IHS Production from the Eagle Ford East was 87, barrels per day (b/d) and 2.3 billion cubic feet per day Bcf/d as of June 214. Production exit rate is expected to be around 1.16 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) and 4.1 Bcf/d by Dec 218. Production is expected to peak in December of 218 with 1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent. 25

26 North American gas productive capacity by type North American gas productive capacity by type Bcf/d Associated gas Coalbed methane Conventional Tight sands Shale Source: IHS 26

27 North American Gas Production Outlook (Matching Demand Growth) by Geography Avg Bcfd West Coast San Juan Rockies Permian Midcontinent Gulf of Mexico Gulf Coast E US Other Canada Montney/Horn River 27

28 Storage and rapid demand growth lead to higher natural gas prices for a while January 215 Henry Hub History and Forecast $6.5 OUTLOOK $6. $/MMBtu $5.5 $5. $4.5 $4. $3.5 $3. Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-2 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Marginal Cost Range Henry Hub IHS Forecast, Jan 215 NYMEX, 15 Jan 215 Source: IHS, CME, Intelligence Press 28

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