INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS

Transcription

1 INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE TRENDS Presented to: Miami-Dade RCA Commercial Marketplace Presented by: Michael Silver, SIOR First Vice President CBRE Industrial & Logistics August, 2016

2 Square Feet by Market August 2016 MARKET BUILDING SF Palm Beach 45,033,239 Broward 92,102,236 Miami 208,612,810 Toronto 755,316,981 New York 802,758,741 Los Angeles 996,288,130 Chicago 1,215,173,241

3 Miami-Dade Industrial Market Statistics 2 nd Quarter 2016 Total 209,540, , ,233 2,470,

4 Miami-Dade Largest SF Markets Total Square Footage & Vacancy

5 Miami-Dade Industrial Market Statistics 2 nd Quarter 2016

6 Miami-Dade Demand Drivers Miami-Dade is now the 7 th most populous county in the USA We just surpassed Kings County, New York (aka Brooklyn) South Florida is the 5 th most populous MSA (Metropolitan Service Area) in the USA (only 400K less than Houston) Miami-Dade County Broward County Palm Beach County Total Tri-County Area 2.74 million 1.89 million 1.41 million 6.04 million Based on 2015 U.F. Estimates

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8 Miami International Airport Statistics #1 in International Cargo in US (Miami, NY, LA) #2 in International Passengers in US (NY, Miami) #9 in International Cargo World-wide (up one notch from 10) #3 in total freight in US (behind only Memphis/FedEx & Louisville/UPS) Headed for over 42-million passengers in 2015 Four International carriers serving MIA-Asia with direct flights and non-stop passenger service planned in less than two years! $6.4 Billion Capital Improvement Program is just completed More than doubling the terminal and concourses from 3.5 million to 7.4 million SF $1.7 Billion Central Terminal redesign and renovation is about to commence. (MIA is on 3,230 Acres of land) Source: Miami-Dade Aviation Department (MDAD)

9 Miami International Airport Pharma Hub

10 #1 container port in Florida and 11 th busiest in the U.S. Handled 7.9 Million tons of cargo volume in 2013/901,000 TEU s 50-ft Deep Dredge Project will make it a First Port of Call for New Panamax ships by 2016 Major $1 Billion tunnel connecting PortMiami and MacArthur Causeway for direct access to east-west Florida State Road 836/I-395 & I-95 Construction of large inland port by restoring connection between PortMiami and Florida East Coast Railway s Yard in Hialeah Awarded Foreign Trade Zone status number 281

11 TEU s have been shifting to the east A new Panama Canal will advance this trend Source: JLL, PAGI Report

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13 Miami-Dade Industrial Trends Tenant/User Perspectives Ecommerce and its impact on retail of all strips remains the largest stimulant of big box distribution demand Tenant Demand 19 quarters of consecutive positive net absorption pushing occupancy to 96% Slowdown at the 29 West Coast ports has forced supply chain users to explore alternate methods of importing goods which has boosted demand on the East Coast and near air freight hubs The increasing complexity of modern supply chains and need to diversify modes of transportation across the supply chains has pushed demand into secondary markets well located along rail and interstate highways

14 Miami-Dade Industrial Trends Landlord/Owner Perspectives Net absorption is expected to remain strong with an average 2.75 million sq. ft. in both 2016 and 2017 Due to the unique needs of large ecommerce and distribution users (higher clear heights, excess car and truck parking and increased power), Class A big box supply has become extremely tight With demand running above long-term averages and new supply to come on line, rents have grown rapidly up 8.7% in 2015 and projected to grow another 4% in 2016

15 REVERSE LOGISTICS $20B - Projected Ecommerce Returns $70B - Total Holiday Ecommerce Sales Source: esource, Schorrs, January 2016.

16 MINIMUM WAGE IMPACT

17 TOP MARKETS FOR JOB GROWTH Top 20 Orlando Markets for Forecasted Office-Using Employment Growth, Tampa Phoenix Orange County Indianapolis Raleigh Oakland Fort Lauderdale Salt Lake City Nashville Dallas San Jose Kansas City San Diego Miami Detroit Cleveland Los Angeles Charlotte Seattle 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Note: Ranking includes markets with at least 200,000 forecasted office-using jobs in Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors, Q

18 BEST METROS FOR INVESTMENT 2016 Nashville is ranked 24 after being ranked #9 last year 2016 Rank Metro 2015 Rank 1 Los Angeles 4 2 New York 2t 3 Dallas/Ft. Worth 2t 4 San Francisco 1 5 Toronto * 6 Atlanta 9t 7 Seattle 5 8 Washington, D.C. 8 9 Denver * 10 Boston * 11 Chicago 9t 12 Austin 6 13 São Paulo * 14 Miami/So. Florida 9t 15 Calgary * 16 Phoenix * 17 Charlotte * Canada Top Ranked Metros: 1. Toronto 2. Calgary 3. Vancouver Latin America Top Ranked Metros: 1.São Paulo 2.Mexico City Source: CBRE Research, Global Investor Intentions Survey *Not in top 15.

19 PREFERRED PROPERTY SECTOR 28% 22% 24% 25% 23% 32% % 13% 3% 5% 4% 4% Multifamily Office Industrial Retail Hotels / Resorts Other Source: CBRE Research, Global Investor Intentions Survey 2016.

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24 Michael Silver, SIOR First Vice President Advisory & Transaction Services Industrial - CBRE 777 Brickell Ave, Suite 900 Miami, FL T F CBRE, Inc. Licensed Real Estate Broker CRBE. We obtained the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other conditions, prior sale, lease or financing, or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct your own investigation of the property and transaction.