BIS Working Papers. Why does financial sector growth crowd out real economic growth? No 490. Monetary and Economic Department

Transcription

1 BIS Working Pprs No 490 Why dos inncil scor growh crowd ou rl conomic growh? y Sphn G Ccchi nd Eniss Khrroui Monry nd Economic Dprmn Frury 05 JEL clssiicion: D9, E, E44, O4 Kywords: Growh, inncil dvlopmn, crdi ooms, R&D innsiy, inncil dpndnc

2 BIS Working Pprs r wrin y mmrs o h Monry nd Economic Dprmn o h Bnk or Inrnionl Slmns, nd rom im o im y ohr conomiss, nd r pulishd y h Bnk Th pprs r on sujcs o opicl inrs nd r chnicl in chrcr Th viws xprssd in hm r hos o hir uhors nd no ncssrily h viws o h BIS This pulicion is vill on h BIS wsi (wwwisorg) Bnk or Inrnionl Slmns 05 All righs rsrvd Bri xcrps my rproducd or rnsld providd h sourc is sd ISSN (prin) ISSN (onlin)

3 Why dos inncil scor growh crowd ou rl conomic growh? Sphn G Ccchi nd Eniss Khrroui Spmr 04 Asrc In his ppr w xmin h ngiv rlionship wn h r o growh o h inncil scor nd h r o growh o ol cor produciviy W gin y showing h y disproporionly niing high collrl/low produciviy projcs, n xognous incrs in innc rducs ol cor produciviy growh Thn, in modl wih skilld workrs nd ndognous inncil scor growh, w slish h possiiliy o mulipl quiliri In h quilirium whr skilld lour works in innc, h inncil scor grows mor quickly h xpns o h rl conomy W go on o show h consisn wih his hory, inncil growh disproporionly hrms inncilly dpndn nd R&D-innsiv indusris Kywords: Growh, inncil dvlopmn, crdi ooms, R&D innsiy, inncil dpndnc JEL clssiicion: D9, E, E44, O4 Ccchi is currnly Prossor o Inrnionl Economics Brndis Inrnionl Businss School nd ormr Economic Advisr nd Hd o Monry nd Economic Dprmn h Bnk or Inrnionl Slmns (BIS) Khrroui is Snior Economis h BIS This ppr ws prprd or h join Insiu or Nw Economic Thinking-Fdrl Rsrv Bnk o Sn Frncisco conrnc Finnc nd h Wlr o Nions, hld in Sn Frncisco on 7 Spmr 03 W hnk Cludio Borio, Dirich Domnski, Andy Filrdo, Lonrdo Gmcor, Chrisin Uppr nd Frizio Zmpolli or hlpul discussions; nd Grry Tng or vlul rsrch ssisnc Th viws xprssd in his ppr r hos o h uhors nd no ncssrily hos o h BIS Finncil scor growh nd rl growh

4 Inroducion In n rlir ppr, w invsigd how inncil dvlopmn cs ggrg produciviy growh nd concludd h h lvl o inncil dvlopmn is good only up o poin, r which i coms drg on growh, nd h s-growing inncil scor is drimnl o ggrg produciviy growh (Ccchi nd Khrroui 0) This scond rsul is summrisd in Grph, which plos h iv-yr vrg GDP-pr-workr growh on h vricl xis nd h iv-yr vrg growh in h inncil scor s shr in ol mploymn on h horizonl xis (oh s dviions rom hir counry mns) Grph Finncil scor growh nd produciviy growh Fiv-yr vrg rl GDP-pr-workr growh (Dviion rom counry mn) Fiv-yr vrg inncil inrmdiion mploymn growh (Dviion rom counry mn) Grphicl rprsnion o y i, 5, i d i, 5, y i, i, or smpl o counris ovr h priod , whr y i, is h log o oupu pr workr in counry i in yr ; y i,+5, is h vrg growh in oupu pr workr in counry i rom im o +5; d i,+5, is h vrg growh in inncil inrmdiion mploymn shr in counry i rom im o +5; i is vcor o counry dummis; nd i, is rsidul Counry smpl: Ausrli, Ausri, Blgium, Cnd, Dnmrk, Finlnd, Frnc, Grmny, Irlnd, Ily, Jpn, Kor, h Nhrlnds, Nw Zlnd, Norwy, Porugl, Spin, Swdn, Swizrlnd, h Unid Kingdom nd h Unid Ss Sourcs: Ccchi nd Khrroui (0), Grph 5 As w show in h rlir ppr, h rsul h inncil ooms r drg on growh is rous o h inclusion o wid vriy o condiioning vrils Morovr, h cs r conomiclly signiicn For xmpl, spciiclly, w slish h i, ovr h 005 o 009 priod, Irish inncil This rsul holds in priculr whn h iniil lvl o inncil dvlopmn i inncil scor siz is conrolld or This ppr hror srsss h h d on innc nd growh should mov rom h rlionship wn h lvl o innc dvlopmn nd growh (s Lvin 997, 005 or dild survys) o h rlionship wn h growh o innc nd conomic growh Finncil scor growh nd rl growh

5 scor mploymn hd n l rhr hn growing 4% pr yr, i would hv shvd 4 prcng poins o o h 7% produciviy dclin Th purpos o his ppr is o xmin why inncil scor growh hrms rl growh W gin y consrucing modl in which inncil nd rl growh inrc, nd hn urn o mpiricl vidnc In our modl, w irs show how n xognous incrs in inncil scor growh cn rduc ol cor produciviy growh This is consqunc o h c h inncil scor growh nis disproporionly high collrl/low produciviy projcs This mchnism rlcs h c h priods o high inncil scor growh on coincid wih h srong dvlopmn in scors lik consrucion, whr rurns on projcs r rlivly sy o pldg s collrl u produciviy (growh) is rlivly low Nx, w inroduc skilld workrs who cn hird ihr y inncirs o improv hir iliy o lnd, incrsing inncil scor growh, or y nrprnurs o improv hir rurns (li h cos o lowr pldgiliy) 3,4 W hn show h whn skilld workrs work in on scor i gnrs ngiv xrnliy on h ohr scor Th xrnliy works s ollows: inncirs who hir skilld workrs cn lnd mor o nrprnurs hn hos who do no Wih mor undn nd chpr unding, nrprnurs hv n incniv o invs in projcs wih highr pldgiliy u lowr produciviy, rducing hir dmnd or skilld lour Convrsly, nrprnurs who hir skilld workrs invs in high rurn/low pldgiliy projcs As rsul, inncirs hv no incniv o hir skilld workrs cus h ni in rms o incrsd iliy o lnd is limid sinc nrprnurs projcs ur low pldgiliy 5 This ngiv xrnliy cn ld o mulipl quiliri In h quilirium whr inncirs mploy h skilld workrs, so h h inncil scor grows mor rpidly, ol cor produciviy growh is lowr hn i would hd gns coordind on h quilirium whr nrprnurs rc h skilld lour 6 Looking wlr, w r l o show h, rliv o h socil opimum, inncil ooms in which skilld lour work or h inncil scor, r su-opiml whn h rgining powr o inncirs is suicinly lrg Building on Pgno (993), w modl chngs in inncil scor growh s chngs in inncil rnscion coss Goldin nd Kz (008) documn h spcculr scndncy o innc mongs (ml) Hrvrd grdus in h 990s nd h 000s S Philippon (007) or modl whr humn cpil is llocd wn nrprnuril nd inncil crrs, nd whr nrprnurs cn innov u c orrowing consrins h inncirs cn hlp o llvi Chuc nd Chll (009) lso dvlop n nlyicl modl ocusing on h llocion o workrs wn inncil inrmdiion nd producion scors in h prsnc o ss pric uls Howvr, non o hs pprs is concrnd wih growh In h xrm cs whr h rurn o high produciviy projcs is no pldgl ll, hr is hn no ni or inncirs o hir skilld workrs sinc his would incrs h iliy o lnd o nrprnurs who r simply unl o orrow S Bumol (990) nd Murphy l (99) or rly conriuions showing how h llocion o ln my inicin in h prsnc o rn sking civiis nd h implicions or growh Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 3

6 Turning o h mpiricl rsuls, w mov yond h ggrg rsuls in Grph nd xmin indusry-lvl d Hr w ocus on mnucuring indusris nd ind h indusris h r in compiion or rsourcs wih innc r priculrly dmgd y inncil ooms Spciiclly, w ind h mnucuring scors h r ihr R&D-innsiv or dpndn on xrnl innc sur disproporion rducions in produciviy growh whn innc ooms Th is, w conirm h rsuls in h modl: y drining rsourcs rom h rl conomy, inncil scor growh coms drg on rl growh Th rmindr o h ppr is dividd ino our prs, ollowd y ri conclusion In Scions nd 3, w dscri h modl h guids our hinking ou h rlionship wn growh in h inncil scor nd growh in h rl scor In h simplr modl o Scion, inncil scor growh is xognous nd w xmin som compriv sics Th mor complx modl, in which hr is skilld lour nd h growh r o h inncil sysm is ndognous, is dvlopd in Scion 3 This modl xhiis mulipl quiliri W sudy hos quiliri nd xmin hir wlr ordring Thn, in Scion 4, w mov o h mpiricl nlysis Building on h sminl ppr y Rjn nd Zingls (998), w sudy 33 mnucuring indusris in 5 dvncd conomis W ind unmiguous vidnc or vry lrg cs o inncil ooms on indusris h ihr hv signiicn xrnl inncing nds or r R&D-innsiv W rpor sims h imply h highly R&D-innsiv indusry locd in counry wih rpidly growing inncil sysm will xprinc produciviy growh o somhing lik prcng poins pr yr lss hn n indusry h is no vry R&D-innsiv locd in counry wih slow-growing inncil sysm Th simpl modl To show how inncil scor growh cn com drg on rl growh w gin y consrucing modl wih wo groups o gns, inncirs nd nrprnurs Hl h nrprnurs hv ccss o high-produciviy, whil h ohr hl cn only ngg in low-produciviy projcs Bu, mirroring h rl world whr high-produciviy projcs r inhrnly riskir nd mor diicul o innc, w ssum h hs nrprnurs r lss l o pldg hir uur rurns s collrl o ponil inncirs Th is, high-produciviy projcs r lss ngil hn low produciviy projcs Furhrmor, inncirs c cos o rcovry in h cs orrowr duls Whn his cos o rcovry lls, inncirs lnd mor, rising h growh r o innc Bu, his inncil scor growh vours h low produciviy/high collrl scor, hry rducing ol cor produciviy growh Th rmindr o his scion srs wih h gnrl sup, or procding o driv h quniy nd pric o orrowing, h rsuling prois, nd inlly h growh r o h conomy Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 4

7 Th gnrl rmwork, rurns nd pldgiliy Considr smll opn conomy wih uni mss o gns Hl h gns r nrprnurs nd h ohr hl r inncirs Enrprnurs nd inncirs ch hv n ndowmn im llld nd rspcivly (W will ignor im suscrips or w g o h growh scion) Agns liv or singl priod wih non-ovrlpping gnrions A h ginning o ch priod, nrprnurs mk orrowing dcisions nd inncirs mk lnding dcisions A h nd o ch priod, nrprnurs rp rurns rom invsmns nd rpy hir lons Finncirs do h sm Prois r hn dividd wn consumpion nd svings, wih h lr consiuing h ndowmn o h nx gnrion h ginning o h nx priod A h ginning o ch priod, n qul numr o nrprnurs r ssignd o on o wo yps o projcs, which w ll nd wih gross rurn R >R > In ddiion o h projcs diring in hir rs o rurn (yp grr hn yp ), hy lso vry sd on h xn o which h rurn cn pldgd s collrl or lon Bu h rurn h cn pldgd is lss hn Dnoing h pldgl rurn o yp i projcs i, w hv i <<R i Furhrmor, w ssum, rlisiclly, h h high-produciviy projcs r mor diicul o pldg, A < B 7,8 Turning o inncirs, hy cn sor hir ndowmn rom on priod o h nx, u oin no rurn Th is, soring on uni h ginning o priod yilds on uni h nd o h priod Morovr, hy c no pldgiliy consrin, so hy cn orrow rom h rs o h world h world opporuniy cos o cpil which is normlisd o on Furhrmor, ch inncir is mchd rndomly h ginning o ch priod wih on nrprnur Borrowing To coninu, dno h gross cos pr uni o orrowing nd h moun o orrowing (oh o drmind in quilirium) s r l nd d, rspcivly Now n nrprnur will only orrow i h cos o orrowing is lss hn h rurn Th is, so long s r l R i Whn his is h cs, h nrprnur orrows s much s possil up o h limi imposd y h pldgiliy consrin This consrin nsurs h h nrprnur will r o pying ck hn duling To drmin his lvl o orrowing, no h n nrprnur ssignd yp i projc who rpys lon o siz d, will hv proi qul o (+d)r i - r l d Th is, h ndowmn () plus h moun 7 Th modl is complly drminisic, u mirrors risk-nurl cs wih unlimid liiliy 8 S Holmsröm nd Tirol (997) or micro-oundion o h pldgl rurn sd on h xisnc o x n morl hzrd Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 5

8 orrowd (d) ims h projc rurn (R i ) minus h rpymn (r l d) (W ignor h im suscrips unil h scion on growh) Convrsly, duling nrprnur will hv rurn qul o (+d)(r i - i ) h siz o h projc (+d) ims h dirnc wn h rurn (R i ) nd h porion pldgd ( i ) Furhrmor, in h vn o dul, h inncir rcovrs rcion p o h lon So, in h vn o dul, h nrprnur s proi quls (+d)(r i - i ) - pr l d Looking his xprssion, w s h duling pys lss whn ihr pldgiliy ( i ) is high or h inncir rcoups lrgr rcion o h lon (p is high) Compring h proi wih nd wihou dul, w cn wri h no-dul consrin s () d) R r d ( d)( R ) pr d ( i l i i l Turning o h inncir, w ssum h rcovring rcion p o h lon md o duling nrprnur, coss h inncir c p ln whr c is posiiv sclr 9 Th opiml choic or p is hn h soluion o his simpl mximizion prolm: mx ln p p () pr l d c d which yilds (- p ) r l =c Susiuing his ino (), h no-dul consrin is c i i (3) d i or i=, As n sid, no h his xprssion is lwys posiiv Th is, c>, I i wr no, h inquliy in () would lwys sric Th is h nrprnur would nvr dul To coninu, givn h (3) inds whn h cos o orrowing is lss hn h projc rurn, nd h nrprnurs would nvr orrow i h cos o orrowing wr o xcd h projc rurn, n nrprnur ssignd yp i projc wih n ndowmn will orrow n moun c i i (4) d, whn r l R i, nd 0 ohrwis i I will usul lr o no h c nd di mov in opposi dircion So, s h cos or h inncir o rcoup hir lon in h cs o dul c lls, h lvl o orrowing d i gos up 9 S Aghion, Bnrj nd Piky (999) or similr modlling o h no-dul consrin s solving or x pos morl hzrd Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 6

9 Furhrmor, h incrs in d i or givn drop in c will lrgr, h lrgr is i So, in h vn h hr is inncil innovion h improvs h chnology h inncir hs o rcoup duld lons, his will driv up lnding y mor h mor pldgl h nrprnurs sss 3 Prois nd h cos o cpil in quilirium Using h rsul in quion (4) w cn wri h yp i nrprnur s ol rurn,, s i i i i l i i i l c ) i i (5) R ( R r ) d R ( R r whn r R nd 0 ohrwis l Turning o h inncir, rcll h hir ndowmn is, hy cn orrow s much s hy wn uni cos, nd h hy r mchd rndomly wih nrprnurs A inncir lnding o yp i nrprnur will lnd d, ihr orrowing i d i i i is posiiv, or soring h dirnc i i is no Using h rsul in quion (4), w cn wri h inncir s ol rurn i l i i l c ) i (6) r d i ( d ) ( r, whn r R, nd 0 ohrwis l i No h or h irs pr o his xprssion o hold, i mus proil or nrprnurs o orrow nd or inncirs o lnd This is why h condiion r l R i mus sisid W now urn o h drminion o h quilirium cos o cpil Following h lirur on h drminion wgs on h lour mrk, w ssum h h cos o cpil is drmind s h oucom o ilrl rgining gm wn on inncir nd on nrprnur Givn h n i- yp nrprnur lwys rns R i jus y invsing h iniil ndowmn, nd givn h h inncir hs coslss sorg chnology, h cos o lnding sisis (7) r, rg mx l i rl i i R i whr dnos h rgining powr o h inncir rliv o h o h nrprnur Th soluion o (7) is h rgining-powr-wighd vrg o h rurn o h nrprnur (=R i ) nd h o h inncir (=) (8) r R ( ) l, i i i, s Th inuiiv rsul is h h highr h rgining powr o h inncir,, h highr h cos o orrowing or nrprnurs Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 7

10 Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 8 4 Growh W now hv ll h lmns ncssry o xmin h drminns o growh in his conomy Inroducing im suscrips, w wri h ndowmn o h nrprnur h ginning o priod s Rclling h hl r ssignd yp projc nd hl r ssignd yp projc, h vrg ol rurn o ch nrprnur is Dnoing s h svd rcion o prois, h dynmics o h nrprnurs ndowmn is (9) s Using quions (5) nd (8), his cn wrin s (0) d R d R R R s ) ( Th xprssion or h voluion o h inncirs ndowmn is quivln, nd cn wrin s () d R d R s Tkn oghr, quions (0) nd () chrcris h growh r o h ggrg conomy To s his, irs dno k = +, h ggrg ndowmn (which w cn hink o s h lvl o cpil in h conomy) W cn now wri h growh r o h conomy s () d d R R d d R R k k s Th irs rm on h righ-hnd-sid o (3), d d R R, quls h growh r h h conomy would xprinc i h wo yps o projcs hd idnicl pldgiliy chrcrisics (i = ) Th scond rm, d d R R, djuss or h c h h wo yps o projcs dir in hir pldgiliy nd hnc will suppor dirn lvls o inncings I msurs ol cor produciviy This lds us o h primry rsul: A rducion in h cos, c, o rcovring clims rom duling nrprnurs riss h growh r o inncirs u rducs ggrg ol cor produciviy y rising disproporionlly invsmn in h low-produciviy/high collrl projcs

11 To s his, irs no rom quion () h dynmics o h inncirs ndowmn, h sinc oh d nd d ris whn c lls, his growh r mus incrs Scond, urning o ggrg growh, no rom quion () h ol cor produciviy movs invrsly wih h produc ( R R )( d d ) And rcll rom quion (4) h dclin in c drivs up orrowing y mor h highr, so h dirnc ( d ) will go up, driving ggrg produciviy down 0 d 3 Th modl wih skilld lour Th xrcis in Scion is on in which chngs in h growh r o h inncil scor, h rl conomy nd, hnc, ol cor produciviy r drivn y chngs in h xognous prmr c h chrcriss h cos or inncirs o rcovring clims rom duling orrowrs In his scion, y inroducing skilld lour h cn mployd ihr y inncirs o lowr h cos c or y nrprnurs o ris h rurn o invsmn R, w llow or ndognous chngs in growh rs h dpnd on which scor mploys skilld workrs Following som prliminris, w nx driv h dcnrlisd quilirium o h conomy, including h lvl o prois, h cos o cpil nd h wg r or skilld workrs W hn procd o xmin how his comprs o h socil opimum, showing how i cn inicin, llocing oo much skilld lour o innc And inlly, w xmin h rlionship o growh in innc o ol cor produciviy growh 3 Th rmwork Th conomy is now populd y n qul numr o nrprnurs, inncirs nd skilld workrs Enrprnurs cn now choos o invs ihr in yp or yp projc As is h cs o h modl o Scion, yp r mor produciv u lss pldgl; so R >R, nd A < B Running yp projc rquirs hiring on skilld workr Dnoing h numr o skilld workrs hird y h nrprnur s L ={0,} h rurn o h nrprnur cn xprssd s (3) R( L ) R ( L ) RL ; nd h pldgl rurn wris s (4) ( L ) ( L ) L 0 Pu nohr wy, h impc o chng in c on h growh r o h conomy dpnds on h irs driviv o d nd d wih rspc o c From quion (4) w s h his is ngiv Th scond rsul dpnds on h scond cross-pril driviv o d nd d wih rspc o c nd, which is lso ngiv Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 9

12 Finncirs cn hir skilld workrs Whn hy do, i rducs h cos o rcovring clims rom duling nrprnurs Whn his cos, c is lowr, inncirs cn lnd mor, rning highr prois As in h cs o h nrprnurs, inncirs cn chos o hir on skilld workr Whn hy do, h cos o rcovr clims on duling nrprnurs lls rom c o c, whr c c Dnoing h numr o skilld workrs hird y h inncir s L ={0,} h cos o rcovr clims on duling nrprnur cn xprssd s (5) c( L ) c( L ) cl To compl h chrcrision o h modl, w urn o h iming o dcisions nd cions: Enrprnurs nd inncirs k hiring dcision nd nrprnurs choos projc yp Th wg r o pid o skilld workrs is hn drmind Enrprnurs nd inncirs r rndomly mchd s ws h cs prviously: ch nrprnur gs rndomly mchd wih on inncir, nd h cos o orrowing is drmind y h rgining gm wn h wo 3 Hiring, lnding/orrowing nd invsmn dcisions r xcud 4 Enrprnurs rp hir oupu, py ck inncirs nd skilld workrs g pid y nrprnurs or inncirs dpnding on whom hy workd or 5 Agns mk hir consumpion-sving dcisions A rcion s o inl incom is svd nd coms h nx gnrion's iniil ndowmn Wih his in hnd, w now urn o h soluion o h modl 3 Th dcnrlisd quilirium W solv or h quilirium y ckwrd inducion, sring wih h dcisions kn wihin h mch wn n nrprnur nd inncir, ssuming h dcision o hir skilld workr hs lrdy n kn Thn, r solving h dcision kn wihin h mch, w look h dcision o hir skilld workr To do his, w gin y driving xprssions or h nrprnur s nd inncir s prois prior o h pymn o wgs o h skilld workrs For h nrprnur wih ndowmn, who hirs L skilld workrs nd orrows rom inncir h hirs L skilld workrs, his is (6) ( L, L ) R( L ) [ R( L ) rl ] d( L, L ), whr, s in (4), Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 0

13 ( L ) d( L, L ) c( L ) ( L ) nd r l is h cos o cpil such h R( L ) r l For inncir wih ndowmn who hirs L skilld workrs nd lnds o n nrprnur wih ndowmn, who hirs L skilld workrs, ol rurns prior o wg pymns qul (7) ( L, L ) [ rl ] d( L, L ) whr h cos o cpil l r sisis r R l L Using hs wo xprssions w cn now compu h quilirium cos o cpil rom h rgining gm in h sm wy s in quion (7): (8) r ( L ) rg mx ( L ) ( L ) R( L ) l rl And h soluion is gin (9) r ( L ) R( L ) ( ) l Looking (9), w s immdily or h cs in which inncir mchd wih n nrprnur h hird skilld workr h quilirium cos o orrowing is highr Th is r () (0) l r l Susiuing (9) ino (6) nd (7) yilds h nrprnurs nd inncirs ol rurn or wg pymns: (0) ( L, L ) [ R( L ) ( )( R( L ) ) d( L, L )] nd ( L, L ) ( R( L ) ) d( L, L ) Using h xprssions in (0) w cn compu h quilirium wg r ord o skilld workrs Assuming h h mrk or skilld workrs is prcly compiiv, n nrprnur s iliy o py wg r w nd inncir s iliy o py wg r w dpnd on h ddiionl proi h workr gnrs y hiring such workr An nrprnur s proi or wg pymn is, L ) ( wih skilld workr nd 0, L ) wihou Anlogously, inncir who hirs skilld workr oins ( prois or wgs o ( L,) nd ( L,0) or skilld workrs hror sisy h ollowing condiions: () w L ) (, L ) (0, L ) ( ohrwis Enrprnurs' nd inncirs' iliy o py nd w L ) ( L,) ( L,0) ( Finncil scor growh nd rl growh

14 Dpnding on which o hs is highr, w or w,, skilld workrs will nd up working ihr or h nrprnurs or h inncirs To coninu, wri h dirnc in h high nd low rurn projcs s quivln dirnc in pldgiliy s R R R, h, nd h dirnc wn h high nd low cos o rcovring lons rom duld orrowrs s c c c Furhrmor, o simpliy h lgr, w normlis c Using (0) nd () w cn driv h condiions or skilld lour o hird y on scor or h ohr Spciiclly, i w ( L 0) w ( L ), hn hr is dcnrlizd quilirium whr nrprnurs hir lour h xpns o inncirs Anlogously, whn w L w L, h dcnrlisd quilirium is on in which inncirs hir skilld lour ( 0) ( ) Working his ou, yilds h ollowing: skilld workrs nd up in h nrprnuril scor i nd only i R R c () ( c ) ( ), whr c c c c c Similrly, skilld workrs r hird y inncirs i nd only i R R c (3) ( c ) ( ) To hlp undrsnd hs condiions, irs no h n nrprnur s iliy o py or skilld workrs dpnds on whhr h inncir h h nrprnur is mchd wih hs hird on Th rson is h his cs h moun o cpil h nrprnur cn ris rom h inncir Inrsingly, whn h inncir hirs skilld workr, his hs wo opposing cs on h wg r n nrprnur cn or o skilld workrs Firs, i riss w cus nrprnurs cn now orrow mor sinc h cos o rcovry in dul is lowr Bu i rducs h wg r w cus h incrs in h orrowing cpciy is lowr whn skilld workr is hird sinc h nrprnur hn invss in lss pldgl projc To s which o hs domins, w cn compu R ( ) (4) w ( L ) w ( L 0) R ( c ) c ( c )( c ) Th prmrs nd c ply similr rol in h modl: hy oh inlunc h inncir s incniv o lnd This quivlnc is our rionl or ssuming c Finncil scor growh nd rl growh

15 Looking (4), w s h h nrprnurs' iliy o py or skilld workrs dcrss wih h numr o skilld workrs in h inncil scor whnvr h dirnc in pldgiliy o yp nd yp, is suicinly lrg rliv o h dirnc in rurns, R R R rsul or inncirs is similr: h inncir s iliy o py or skilld workr dpnds on whhr sh is mchd wih n nrprnur h hs hird on Th wg dirnc in hs wo css is givn y R c (5) w ( L ) w ( L 0) R c c c ( c )( c ) As ws h cs or h nrprnurs, rom (5) w cn conclud h inncir s iliy o py or skilld workrs dcrss wih h numr o skilld workrs in h nrprnuril scor whnvr h dirnc in pldgiliy wn h wo yps o projcs is suicinly lrg rliv o h dirncs in rurns Impornly, i oh nrprnurs nd inncirs iliy o py skilld workrs dcrss whn h ohr hirs skilld workr, hr cn mulipl quiliri Indd, or h quilirium condiions () nd (3) o hold simulnously, w nd Th (6) c c Th condiion in (6) is mor likly o hold h lss pldgl yp projcs r rliv o yp, nd h highr h cos o rcovry or inncirs whn hy do no hir skilld lour Th is, mulipl quiliri r mor likly h lowr, h highr, nd h highr c To undrsnd why mulipl quiliri ris hr, rcll h n nrprnur s iliy o py or skilld lour dpnds on how mny skilld workrs r hird in h inncil scor Th wr skilld workrs in innc, h highr h wg nrprnurs will l o or To pu i dirnly, i is s i h mor workrs nrprnurs hir, h highr h wg hy cn or And, wh is ru or nrprnurs is ru or inncirs This orm o incrsing rurns riss rom h c hr is complmnriy wn h nrprnur s pldgiliy nd h inncir s cos o rcovring in dul: highr plgdiliy mpliis h nis o lowr cos o rcovring in dul Th xisnc o incrsing rurns crs h ponil or lour mrk inicincy h cn ld o oo mny skilld workrs ing llocd o on scor or h ohr Wih his in mind, w now urn o h compuion o socil opimum, which llows us o drmin h condiions undr which h lour mrk llocs skilld lour inicinly Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 3

16 3 Th socil opimum nd inicincy o h dcnrlisd quilirium W now xmin h socilly opiml llocion o skilld lour cross h wo scors W sr y dining h socil wlr uncion, W, s h sum o h nrprnur nd inncir ol proi prior o wg pymns, (7) W L, L ) ( L, L ) ( L, L ) ( Using h rsul rom (), w cn wri his s (8) W L, L ) R( L ) ( R( L ) ) d( L, L ) ( Mximizing (8) sujc o L L yilds h socil opimum To oin h rsul, w compr socil wlr whn nrprnurs hir skilld lour, W ( L, L 0), wih h lvl whn inncir s do, W ( L 0, L ) Th wo rlvn xprssions r givn y (9) W ( L nd W ( L, L 0, L 0) R ) R ( R ( R ) c ) c From his w conclud h i is socilly opiml o lloc skilld lour o h inncil scor, W ( L 0, L ) > W ( L, L 0), i nd only i R c (30) R c c Whn h inquliy in (30) dos no hold, h socil opimum is on in which nrprnurs hir skilld workrs Finlly, w urn o h comprison o h socil opimum nd h dcnrlisd quilirium By h condiion (30) wih (3) w cn s i hr r ims whn h dcnrlisd quilirium inicinly llocions lour o innc Th rsul is h his hppns whn, h rgining powr o h nrprnurs is suicinly lrg To s his, no h h inicincy occurs whn oh (3) c c c c c c nd Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 4

17 (3) c c c c c c Th irs o hs is whr h socilly opiml llocion o lour o innc is mor rsriciv hn in h dcnrlisd quilirium Whn his condiion holds, hr r css whr skilld lour is llocd o h inncil scor whil h conomy s whol would r-o i skilld lour ws llocd o nrprnurs Th scond condiion is whr h llocion o lour o nrprnurs in h dcnrlisd quilirium is mor rsriciv hn in h socil opimum This scond condiion nsurs h skilld lour misllocion lwys hppns o h drimn o nrprnurs nd in vour o inncirs Looking (3) w cn s h, givn h h righ-hnd sid o h inquliy is incrsing in, h inquliy holds whn is suicinly lrg Anlogously, looking (3) nd noing h h righ-hnd sid is incrsing in, h inquliy holds whn is suicinly lrg Inuiivly, h lrgr h rgining powr o inncirs, h mor rciv is h inncil scor comprd o h nrprnuril scor Hnc wih lrg rgining powr, h quilirium whr skilld workrs work or h inncirs is mor likly, vn hough his implis h nrprnurs crry ou yp projc which is lss produciv 33 Finncil scor growh nd ol cor produciviy growh W now urn o growh Following h noion o scion 4, h iniil ndowmns o nrprnurs nd inncirs in priod r nd, rspcivly; h conomy s ggrg ndowmn is h sum o hs wo k = + ; nd h conomy s sving r is givn y s Dining h growh r o h inncil scor s s, nd using h xprssions or ol prois (), comind wih h or h quilirium or h ou o lnding, w cn wri h dynmics o h inncir s ndowmn s (33) ( L, L ) ( ( ) ) ( L ) R L c( L ) ( L ) For h conomy s whol, whr h growh is k k s k, w hv (34) c( L ) k L L R L (, ) ( ( ) ) c L L ( ) ( ) W cn us hs wo xprssions o slish whn h inncil scor grows mor quickly nd whn i grows mor slowly And, hn look how his rls o ol cor produciviy growh On h irs o hs, compr quion (33) or h cs whr skilld lour is llocd o h Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 5

18 nrprnuril scor, L 0 nd L nd L 0, wih h on whr skilld workrs r hird y inncirs, L Th rsul is h h inncil scor grows mor quickly, ( L 0, L ) ( L, L 0), whn (35) R c R c Wh his sys is h i h dirnc in h pldgiliy o h high nd low rurn projcs is lrg rliv o hir dirnc in rurn, hn h inncil scor grows mor quickly Turning o ol cor produciviy growh, in h simplr modl o scion wo, his ws h wighd vrg o h projcs undrkn y nrprnurs Unlik h cs, hr hr is no composiion c sinc ll nrprnurs ihr hir skilld lour nd ngg in high-rurn (low pldgiliy) projcs or hy do no nd ngg in low-rurn (high pldgiliy) projcs From his, i immdily ollows h ol cor produciviy growh is high whn skilld lour is llocd o nrprnurs nd i is low whn skilld lour is llocd o inncirs Wih his in mind, w now look h rlionship wn h condiion or h dcnrlisd quilirium o h on wih skilld lour going o innc nd h condiion or h inncil scor o grow mor quickly Th is, w driv h condiion undr which (4) implis (36) This is h cs whn (36) ( ) c c c c c This condiion dpnds on rliv rgining powr o h wo pris in h wg ngoiion gm To oin inuiion ou h rsul, w look h wo xrms, =0 whr nrprnurs hv ll h powr, nd = whr inncirs do In h irs cs, =0, h condiion (36) holds so long s c, which is lwys ru So, in h cs whr nrprnurs r l o s wgs unilrlly, high inncil growh is ssocid wih low conomic growh Turning o h cs whr wgs r s y inncirs, whn is =, (36) simpliis o (37) c c, which is xcly h xprssion or h xisnc o mulipl quiliri, (6) Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 6

19 From his w cn conclud h whn hr r mulipl quiliri, h on in which skilld workrs r hird y inncirs o rduc h cos o rcovring clims rom duling nrprnurs will hv highr inncil growh nd lowr rl growh 4 Th mpiricl invsigion Two min conclusions mrg rom h modls o h prvious wo scions Firs, h ggrg lvl, inncil scor growh is ngivly corrld wih ol cor produciviy growh Scond, his ngiv corrlion riss oh cus inncil scor growh disproporionly nis o low produciviy/high collrl scors nd cus hr is n xrnliy h crs possil misllocion o skilld lour Our rlir ppr, Ccchi nd Khrroui (0), provids mpiricl vidnc or h irs o hs W now urn o h scond Th modl prdics h inncil scor growh nis disproporionly mor o scors wih highr collrl Givn h collrl corrls ngivly wih h rlinc on xrnl innc, w posi h inncil scor growh should ni disproporionly lss o indusris wih highr dpndnc on xrnl innc Nx, h ky o iguring ou which scor r mos likly o dmgd rom inncil scor growh rquirs h w look or h scors h r comping wih innc or inlsiclly supplid skilld lour Givn h inncil scor growh is skilld-lourinnsiv nd givn h skill-innsiv scors r lso R&D-innsiv, his lds us o h hypohsis h R&D-innsiv indusris ircr, compuing nd h lik will disproporionly hrmd whn h inncil scor grows mor quickly By conrs, indusris such s xils or iron nd sl, which hv low R&D innsiy, should no dvrsly cd Using hs insighs, w now provid ri dscripion o h d w us, or urning o h mpiricl spciicion, nd inlly o som rsuls 4 Th d Our nlysis ocuss on disggrgd d on produciviy in mnucuring scors rom 5 dvncd OECD counris To g som sns o which scors r ing hrmd y inncil scor growh, w rquir wo yps o dild d Th irs msurs inncil scor growh nd h scond quniis h xn o which n individul indusry is comping wih innc or rsourcs W now Philippon nd Rsh (009) provid mpiricl vidnc h, ovr h ps 30 yrs, h US nking indusry hs com rlivly skilld-lour-innsiv Philippon nd Rsh (03) xnd h nlysis o cross-counry d Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 7

20 xmin ch o hs in urn Sring wih inncil scor growh, w considr wo yps o indicors Th irs ocuss on nks lon h rio o nking sss o GDP, or xmpl -- nd h scond on h inncil sysm mor rodly including msurs such s ol priv crdi o GDP In ch cs, w compu h vrg growh r rom 000 o 008 or ch o hs Grph 3 plos s o six indicors or h 6 counris in our smpl No h Jpn hs xprincd ngiv growh or ll h indicors considrd For Grmny, growh is wk, wih som indicors showing mods ris nd ohrs mods ll Swizrlnd xhiis virully sl lvl o innc (rmmr h his is h growh r, no h lvl o dvlopmn) Unsurprisingly, Spin shows srong oom h is invrin o h wy i is msurd So r, his is s xpcd Wh is surprising is h c h hr r h ooms in Dnmrk nd Swdn lrgr, vn, hn hos in h Unid Kingdom nd h Unid Ss 3 Turning o indusry-spciic chrcrisics, w concnr on wo dirn indicors: indusry xrnl inncil dpndnc nd indusry R&D innsiy W msur xrnl inncil dpndnc s h mdin rio cross irms longing o h corrsponding indusry in h Unid Ss o cpil xpndiurs minus currn csh low o ol cpil xpndiurs And R&D innsiy is h mdin rio cross irms longing o h corrsponding indusry in h US o R&D xpndiurs o ol vlu ddd Th inncil dpndnc msur givs n indicion o n indusry's nds (or diiculis) in rising xrnl innc nd s such cn considrd s proxy or h orrowing consrins h indusry could ponilly c By conrs, R&D innsiy givs us n indicion o rlinc on skilld lour For xmpl, sss in mor R&D-innsiv indusris r mor likly o consis o ls illd wih highly rind rsrchrs nd spcilisd quipmn Pu dirnly, R&D-innsiv indusris dmnd highly skilld lour W ollow Rjn nd Zingls (998) in msuring indusry chrcrisics using US d This pproch, which is orcd on us y d vililiy, ssums h dirncs cross indusris r drivn lrgly y dirncs in chnology h r h roughly similr in ll counris Givn h our smpl is or dvncd OECD conomis wih susnil cross-ordr rd, his sms n innocuous ssumpion S Grnwood nd Schrsin (0) or dild nlysis o inncil scor growh in h US Mor prcisly, h working ssumpion is h h rnking o indusris ccording o inncil dpndnc or R&D innsiy is counry-invrin Finncil scor growh nd rl growh 8