Liquids From Shales Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Suzanne Minter November 16,2011

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1 Liquids From Shales Fertilizer Outlook & Technology Conference Suzanne Minter November 16,

2 Strong Lower 48 Production Growth Since Current Dry Production Levels At All Time Highs 60 Bcf/d Dry Production Barnett Woodford Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus Eagle Ford The Land Rush, Efficiencies and Liquids Focus 7+ Bcf Growth in Less Than 2 Years Source: BENTEK Pipeline Flow Data --- Daily Supply and Demand Report: September 23, 2011 Incremental Growth = Avg. Jan to Avg. August

3 Southwestern Energy s Rig Productivity Gains 1st Quarter st Quarter st Quarter st Q 2011 Fayetteville Shale +533% 116,148 Source: Southwestern Energy Financials -58% +138% % 4, % 2,673 +8% ,104 1,006 18,360 $2.8 $2.6 8 Drill Time (Days) Wells Per Yr. Per Rig Avg. Lateral Length ( Feet) 30 Day Ave. Prod Rate (Mcfd) IP Additions Per Rig Per Yr. (Mcf/d) Drill & Complete Costs ($MM) 3

4 Production Growth Projection 45.0 Big 6 Unconventional Basin Growth (Bcf/d) Marcellus Eagle Ford Barnett Woodford Fayettville Haynesville Source: BENTEK Production Market Model & Production Monitors bentekenergy.com 4

5 U.S. Active Rig Locations: Resource Plays Dominate Williston Basin Bakken Shale (Oil Play) Pinedale/Jonah Tight Gas Uinta Piceance Niobrara Shale Play (Oil Play) Woodford Shale Gas Play Marcellus Shale Gas Play Horizontal Rigs Directional Rigs Vertical Rigs Barnett Shale Gas Play Permian Basin-Oil Targets Granite Wash, Cleveland, Miss. Eagle Ford Shale Play Fayetteville Shale Gas Play Haynesville Shale Gas Play U.S. Active Rigs Ver Dir Hor Source RigData and BENTEK: Lower 48 States, Sept.,

6 The Shale Revolution Drives Down Prices $16.00 $14.00 Henry Hub ($/MMBtu) $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 $8.87 $6.74 $6.93 $8.85 $3.92 $4.37 $4.24 Henry Hub $/MMBtu Yearly Average 6

7 Liquids Rich Plays Provide Excellent Returns Horn 7% Montney 28% 9% WCSB Bakken Pinedale PRB 77% 36% 11% Niobrara Marcellus Piceance 32% 58% 78% San Juan 8% Anadarko Woodford California 105% 12% 34% Barnett 15% Fayetteville Permian 82% 14% 21% Haynesville 95% Eagle Ford 37% Note: Note: Anadarko Average IRR For Granite Wash, Cana, Mississippian & Cleveland Sands Source: BENTEK 7

8 Changing Flow Dynamics Impact of shale technologies has shifted from natural gas, to crude oil and NGLs We ve seen this movie before constrained flows > basis blow-outs > infrastructure investments But parallels go only so far. Supply dynamics, physical properties and markets are completely different It will take years and billions in midstream investment to return crude oil and NGL markets to equilibrium 8

9 Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) High BTU Content Gas Field Separation Condensation, Oil, Water Gas Gathering Systems From Numerous Wells and Fields Raw NGL s Pipes, Trucks or Rail Gas Processing Plant Dry Gas Interstate Pipelines To End-users Refineries Ethane Propane Petrochemical Normal Butane NGL Fractionator Isobutane Natural Gasoline Fractionated NGL Components Industrial Heating 9

10 $ $16.00 Henry Hub Gas $/MMBTU Gas, Oil and NGL Price Comparison $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $ $ $ $80.00 $60.00 $40.00 $20.00 $0.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $ $/Bbl (WTI and NGLs) Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 Jul-06 Jan-06 Jul-05 Jan-05 WTI $/Bbl MB NGL Ave. $/Bbl HH $/Mcf Source: ICE, EIA

11 Gas, Oil and NGL Price Comparison: MMBTU Equivalent $30.00 $30.00 $/MMBtu Equivalent $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 NGL Value Keeping Track With Crude Value Gap $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $5.00 $0.00 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 Jan-07 Jul-06 Jan-06 Jul-05 Jan-05 WTI $/MMBtu HH Gas $/MMBtu MB NGL Ave. $/MMBtu $0.00 Source: ICE, EIA 11

12 The Move To Crude --- Liquid Uplift $$ Revenue From 1,000 Mcfe $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 1,000 Mcf of 1,000 BTU Content Dry Gas - Not Processed $4,000 1,000 Mcf of 1,250 BTU Gas Not Processed $5,000 Dry Gas 1,000 Btu Wet Gas - Unprocessed - 1,250 Btu 1,000 Mcf of 1,250 BTU Gas Processed 770 Mcf Dry Gas 125 Bbls NGLs $10,230 $7,162 $3,067 Processed Gas - 1,250 Btu 1,000 Mcf of 1,000 BTU Gas Converted to Oil Equivalent ~5.8 to 1 $18,103 Crude Oil Dry Gas Value Wet Gas - Value NGL Value Crude Value Gas = $4.00/MMbtu, NGLs = $57.30/Bbl, Crude = $105.00/Bbl 12

13 Components of NGL Barrel Compounds Major Uses Ethane (C 2 H 6 ) 40% Ethylene Building Block for Most Plastics Propane (C 3 H 8 ) 30% Propylene, Heating Fuel Res/Com Heating, Paints, PVC, Adhesives Normal Butane (C4H10) 10% Butylene Refrigerant, Propellants 1 Avg. NGL Barrel Isobutane 10% Isobutylene Refrigerant, Propellants Natural Gasoline (C 5 H 12 ) 10% Petrochem Feedstock, Motor Gasoline 13

14 Gas Growth vs. NGL Growth Gas Production, BCF/day Natural Gas Growth: 27% Natural Gas Liquids Growth: 42% Overall U.S. GPM increasing 12 percent NGL Production, MMbbl/d Natural Gas Production Raw Mix Production

15 MBPD U.S. Gas Plant NGL Production Rising Processing Transportation Fractionation Demand Actual Forecast Permian: 298 to 432 MBPD (45%) Source: BENTEK/Turner Mason NGL Study 2011 Other Other USGC Anadarko Permian Fort Worth TX Gulf Coast Marcellus 15

16 Liquids Plays Returns Scenarios 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Oil =$ 35; NGL = $21 Oil= $65; NGL = $39 Oil = $85; NGL = $51 16

17 Sacramento Changing GPMs: Movement to Richer Plays San Joaquin CA Coast MT Thrust Belt Wind River Powder Big Horn River Green River Uinta Piceance Paradox San Juan 2.5 Williston Denver- Julesburg Anadarko Granite Wash 1.6 Palo Duro Permian Salina 2.6 Ft. Worth East TX Eagle Ford 1.6 Cherokee 2.1 Nemaha Uplift Sedgwick Fayetteville 2.7 TX Gulf Coast Woodford AL-MS-FL LA Gulf Coast Michigan Appalachian Arkla-NonHaynesville Black Warrior Arkla-Haynesville Marcellus We t 1.0 Marcellus WV Marcellus - Dry

18 Horizontal Rig Additions Since Jan Transfer of Drilling Technology To Liquid Rich and Oil Plays Williston Anadarko Marcellus +59 Permian Gas Focused Areas Liquids Rich/Oil Focused Areas +126 Eagle Ford Rig Declines Source RigData and BENTEK: Lower 48 States, April 2011 Map Adds to 516 Hor. Rigs. 8 misc. other rigs not shown. 18

19 Key Takeaway Points U.S. Supply Has Been Pushed to Record Levels Due to Shale Gas Plays Natural Gas Prices Have Remained Low Due to Excess Supply Natural Gas Liquids Increasing as a Result of New Wet Gas Shale Plays NGL Prices Tracking Crude Prices Producers Are Adjusting Strategies to Take Advantage of Higher Liquid Prices Economics Very Attractive in Wet Gas and Crude Plays 19

20 BENTEK Energy, LLC BENTEK is an energy market analytics company, focused on the natural gas market and related energy sectors. Suzanne Minter Contact Any Analyst Direct at (303) DISCLAIMER. THIS REPORT IS FURNISHED ON AN AS IS BASIS. BENTEK DOES NOT WARRANT THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THE REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN. BENTEK MAKES NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE USE OF ANY INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT IN CONNECTION WITH TRADING OF COMMODITIES, EQUITIES, FUTURES, OPTIONS OR ANY OTHER USE. BENTEK MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES AND EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANT- ABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. RELEASE AND LIMITATION OF LIABILITY: IN NO EVENT SHALL BENTEK BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT, SPECIAL, INCIDENTAL, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFIT) ARISING OUT OF OR RELATED TO THE ACCURACY OR CORRECTNESS OF THIS REPORT OR THE INFORMATION CONTAINED THEREIN,WHETHER BASED ON WARRANTY, CONTRACT, TORT OR ANY OTHER LEGAL THEORY. 20

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