International Comparisons of Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Transcription

1 International Comparisons of Energy Use and Carbon Dioxide Emissions The IEA Indicator Approach Dr Peter G Taylor Acting Head, Energy Technology Policy Division Climate Change and Sustainable Development The Role of Indicators Expert Group Meeting, United Nations, October 2008, New York OECD/IEA -2008

2 Overview Introduction to the IEA work Simple energy and CO 2 indicators Analysing trends and drivers CO 2 reduction potentials Conclusions

3 IEA Indicators Work Establish a harmonised framework for analysis Harmonisation => Comparability Comparability => Understanding of global trends and drivers Produce meaningful cross-country analysis to provide guidance to policy-makers on: Underlying drivers (economic activity & structure, income, prices...) Trends in energy use and CO 2 emissions Energy efficiency opportunities and progress Policy effectiveness

4 Shares of Global Final Energy Consumption and CO 2 Emissions by Sector, 2006 Other 3% Other 4% Transport 26% Manufacturing 33% Transport 25% Manufacturing 38% Services 9% Households 29% Total final energy consumption: 285 EJ Ser vices 12% Households 21% Total direct and indirect CO 2 emissions: 21 Gt CO 2

5 Total Final Energy Consumption by Sector EJ OECD Europe 1990 OECD Pacific 1990 US & Canada 1990 Mexico 1990 China 1990 India 1990 Brazil 1990 South Africa 1990 Russia 1990 RoW 1990 Manufactur ing Households Services Tr ansport Other

6 Total Final Energy Consumption by Energy Commodity 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% OECD Europe 1990 OECD Pacific 1990 US & Canada 1990 Mexico 1990 China 1990 India 1990 Brazil 1990 South Africa 1990 Russia 1990 RoW 1990 Oil Natural gas Coal Renewables District heat Electricity

7 Carbon Intensity of the Final Energy Mix kg CO2 per GJ OECD Europe OECD Pacific US & Canada Mexico China India Brazil South Africa Russia RoW 1990

8 CO 2 Emissions per Capita t CO 2 per capita Other Transport Services Households Manufacturing

9 CO 2 Emissions per Unit of GDP values Index (1990=100) kg CO 2 per USD Brazil OECD Pacific South Africa Mexico RoW US & Canada India OECD Europe Russia China using GDP at PPP using GDP at MER

10 End-Use Coverage for Indicators

11 Factors Affecting Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Level of Energy Use Activity Structure (mix of activities) Energy intensity of each activity Carbon Intensity of Energy Use Fuel mix Carbon intensity of each fuel

12 Household CO 2 Emissions by End-Use, IEA % Space heating 80% 45% 39% 600 Appliances % Mt CO Water heating 40% 27% 34% 200 Lighting 20% 16% 14% 100 Cooking 8% 8% Note: Energy use for space heating has been climate corrected 0% 5% 4% 1990

13 Energy consumption of Appliances, EU15 Average Unit Energy Consumption Share of Large and Small Appliances % % kwh per year Share in total appliances energy use 55% 50% 45% 40% 0 35% Large appliances Other appliances Source: ODYSSEE

14 Passenger Transport CO 2 Emissions per Capita, 5 4 t CO2 per capita Cars Other passenger modes

15 Energy Use per Passenger- Kilometre (All Modes) MJ per pkm

16 Share of Total Passenger Transport by Mode, 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Cars Buses Rail Air Water

17 Average Fuel Intensity of the Car Stock 13 Litres of gasoline equivalent per 100 vehicle-km US Australia Japan New Zealand Canada Switzerland Sweden Ireland Germany Netherlands Norway Austria France UK Finland Denmark Italy Greece

18 Decomposition of Trends in Overall CO 2 Emissions, IEA16 2.5% 2.0% Average annual percent change 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% Actual energy use Actual CO2 emissions Activity Str uctur e Intensity Fuel mix Carbon intensity

19 Decomposition of Trends in CO 2 per Unit of GDP 1.0% 0.5% Average annual percent change 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5% -3.0% -3.5% Energy efficiency effect Energy services per GDP CO2 intensity effect CO2 per GDP

20 Factors impacting CO 2 emissions from final energy use, IEA Hypothetical CO 2 emissions without either energy efficiency or CO 2 intensity improvements CO 2 emissions savings from reductions in CO 2 intensity of energy mix 18% 8 CO 2 emissions savings from energy efficiency improvements Gt CO 2 6 Actual CO 2 emissions

21 Using Indicators to Calculate Reduction Potentials for CO 2 Emissions Use of BAT/BPT to assess potential in the industrial and electricity generation sectors These indicators are useful for showing: To what extent existing technology can achieve further savings Where the potential lies (countries and processes) However, there are limitations to the use of the indicators: Assess instantaneous technical potential Do not take into account practical constraints Not suitable for short-term target setting But calculated potentials are easy to understand

22 CO 2 Reduction Potential in Cement, Based on Best Available Technology Mt CO Specific savings potential (t CO2 per tonne of cement) 0 World Russia Canada US China Korea Brazil India OECD Europe Japan Other 0.00 Fuel CO2 Electricity savings Alternative fuel BF slag Other clinker substitute Specific savings potential

23 Technical Fuel and CO 2 Savings Potential from Improving the of Electricity Production

24 Key Conclusions and Policy Messages Indicators are a powerful tool for analysing trends in energy use and CO 2 emissions, and calculating potentials for further savings Results show the important role of energy efficiency in shaping patterns of energy use and CO 2 emissions in IEA countries, but gains are often offset by other factors Large potential for further energy and CO 2 savings in many industries and power generation (and other sectors) Sustainable development requires that CO 2 emissions be decoupled from economic growth, this is possible but will require strong policy-action from Governments Urgent need for governments to enhance framework for monitoring end-use energy consumption and address the gaps in available statistical data

25 Thank you! contact: The latest IEA indicators report (published May 2008) is available for free download at: OECD/IEA -2008