The Shale Revolution:

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1 The Shale Revolution: Managing America s New Economic Edge Presented at: WPPA Spring Meeting May 15, 2013

2 The 21 st Century American Energy Revolution Event: The shot that will be heard around the world 2004 Continental Resources drills the Robert Heuer 1-17R, the 1st commercially successful Bakken shale oil well in North Dakota Bakken using both horizontal drilling and advanced completion techniques. Result: New technology transforms previously uneconomic tight source rock formations (organic rich shale) into commercial targets. A development that will soon force Peak Oil theorists to reconsider their assumptions and rework their models. The march towards North American energy independence begins. 2

3 February 2007 United States Government Accountability Office GAO In the referenced 82-page study for Congress titled, Uncertainty About Future Oil Supply Makes It Important to Develop a Strategy for Addressing a Peak and Decline in Oil Production : 1. The words Oil Shale appear 35 times (referring to sedimentary rock containing solid bituminous materials that release petroleum-like liquids (kerogen) when heated. 2. The words Shale Oil appear 0 times it s not even on the radar. 3

4 Monthly Production (MMBoe) Eagle Ford Niobrara Arkoma Woodford Barnett The Shale Revolution: Powered by Horizontal Drilling Bakken Haynesville Anadarko Woodford Hz rig count Lower 48 total wells Note: Production does not include Permian Basin, Marcellus or Utica Shales Lower 48 advanced completion wells HZ Rigs Wells 000s Sources: Well count IHS Energy; Rig count Baker Hughes; Production DI Desktop (HPDI) 4

5 Lower 48 Onshore: The 2,000,000 Barrel/Day Shale Oil Edge

6 Revolutionary Times Headlines Oil companies target America for investment ~ CNNMoney 6

7 Shale: America s 21 st Century Energy Revolution This revolution is no bubble or the start of another boom/bust cycle, it s the real deal and ports in Washington should gear up for it (USGS study released in 2013 doubles the previous estimate of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and gas in the Bakken/Three Forks play). This multi-decade home-grown shale revolution is driven by ingenuity + technology, that will lead us to North American energy independence. 7

8 The Many Fronts in the North American Shale Revolution 8

9 Net Crude Oil Production Growth: 2012 to ,100 Western Canada +940 Bakken Flat +300 Niobrara/ Uinta +340 Mississippi/ Woodford/ Granite Wash +25 Marcellus/ Utica 2012 to 2017 Growth 3,805 MB/Day + 1,100 MB/Day = 4,905 MB/Day ~ +2,200 Permian/ Eagle Ford Offshore Gulf of Mexico? Data Source: Internal & Various Third Party Estimates 9

10 Net Crude Oil Production Growth 2012 to ,700 Western Canada +1,320 Bakken Flat +430 Niobrara/ Uinta +490 Mississippi/ Woodford/ Granite Wash +35 Marcellus/ Utica 2012 to 2022 Growth 5,215 MB/D + 1,700 MB/D = 6,915 MB/D ~ +2,940 Permian/ Eagle Ford Offshore Gulf of Mexico? Data Source: Internal & Various Third Party Estimates 10

11 Moving Crude Oil to Market by Pipeline Today Map Source: CAPP Website 11

12 Unprecedented Pipeline Expansion Plans Seaway I & II Keystone Gulf Coast HoHo Source: Various Pipeline Websites (Not all projects are shown) 12

13 But How Will Shale Oil Reach Refineries Without Pipeline Connections? Seaway I & II Keystone Gulf Coast HoHo Source: Various Pipeline Websites (Not all projects are shown) 13

14 Beyond Pipelines: The Rail to Port Alternative Seaway I & II Keystone Gulf Coast HoHo Source: Various Pipeline Websites (Not all projects are shown) 14

15 Washington Ports: The Next Water Play for the Leader in Hydro? Map Source: EIA InfoCenter July 2012 WPPA Next Steps? 1. Facilitate projects that streamline the transfer of crude oil from rail offload terminals to the state s 5 refineries and barge loading docks. 2. Add rail-to-vessel transload capacity to ship shale oil to refineries in California and Canadian bitumen/syncrude internationally. 3. Develop plans to capitalize on the state s close proximity to Bakken and Rockies production in case US crude and LNG export rules are relaxed. 15

16 A Big First Step for Washington State Tesoro Refinery Anacortes, WA (Sept. 2012) 16

17 Exciting Developments: Expanding WA Crude by Rail 1. New Poll Confirms Washington Voters Support Export Terminal Projects Seattle (Business Wire) January 14, Tesoro-Savage jointly announce plans to make a significant investment to increase crude oil export capacity at the Port of Vancouver (USA). 3. The Port of Grays Harbor considers three new crude by rail export proposals. 4. Several WA state refiners announce plans to invest in improved rail offloading facilities to run more Bakken crude. 17

18 Approximate Distances/Days Transit from Washington Ports to Potential Crude Oil, Refined Product and LNG Markets 18

19 What About the Shale Revolution and Natural Gas? 19

20 U.S. Natural Gas Production by Source (trillion cubic feet) 5/22/

21 LNG Export Facilities: USWC - Off Limits? 21

22 New Shale-Driven Opportunities for Washington State Ports Stakeholders? 1. Become a ship to rail gateway for the importation of drilling pipe, sand, and other oilfield equipment for use in regional shale plays. 2. Improve natural gas pipeline connectivity to access more supplies from the Rockies and Canada. 3. Think beyond coal to Value-added exports by exploring LNG liquefaction plant construction. 4. Build export capacity to move LNG to premium-priced Asian markets. 22

23 No nation was ever ruined by trade. ~ Benjamin Franklin A revolutionary guy in his own right who invented bifocals, the lightning rod, the glass harmonica, the library chair, swim fins, the long reach device, the Franklin Stove, the catheter, and Daylight Savings Time. 23

24 American Energy Independence: How will we all benefit from the edge? Jobs, jobs and more jobs for you, your family and neighbors. More Petro-Dollars (the $ you spend to fill up your vehicle and heat your home) stay in North America. Improved U.S. trade balances with other countries. Stronger U.S. Dollar Your cash goes further when you buy imported goods or travel abroad. Pentagon savings as military operations are streamlined. 24

25 Federal Laws Affecting American s Shale Revolution: Protecting Vital National Interests or Legislative Leftovers from a Bygone Era? Oil & Gas Export Restrictions Federal Land Closed to Drilling US-Flag Shipping Rules Forward Thinking Public Policy at All Levels of Government is the Key 25

26 Keep Moving Forward WPPA! Q&A

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