World Energy Outlook 2012

Transcription

1 World Energy Outlook 2012 Marco Baroni Senior Energy Analyst Directorate of Global Energy Economics, IEA Lisbon, 13 November 2012

2 The context Foundations of global energy system shifting Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries Retreat from nuclear in some others Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency All-time high oil prices acting as brake on global economy Divergence in natural gas prices affecting Europe (with prices 5-times US levels) and Asia (8-times) Symptoms of an unsustainable energy system persist Fossil fuel subsidies up almost 30% to $523 billion in 2011, led by MENA CO 2 emissions at record high, while renewables industry under strain Despite new international efforts, 1.3 billion people still lack electricity

3 Emerging economies steer energy markets Share of global energy demand 100% 80% 60% 40% Mtoe Mtoe Mtoe Non-OECD Rest of non-oecd Middle East India China OECD 20% Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035, underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East

4 A United States oil & gas transformation US oil and gas production mboe/d Unconventional gas 10 5 Conventional gas Unconventional oil Conventional oil The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications well beyond the United States

5 Iraq oil poised for a major expansion Iraq oil production Iraq oil exports mb/d 9 8 North Centre mb/d 9 8 Other Asia 7 South Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global production to 2035; by the 2030s it becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia

6 Middle East oil to Asia: a new silk road Middle East oil export, by destination mb/d China India Japan & Korea Europe United States By 2035, almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports go to Asia; North America s emergence as a net exporter accelerates the eastward shift in trade

7 Natural gas: towards a globalised market Major global gas trade flows, Rising supplies of unconventional gas & LNG help to diversify trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers & oil-linked pricing mechanisms

8 Different trends in oil & gas import dependency Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries Gas Imports 100% 80% 60% European Union Japan % 20% 0% China United States India Gas Exports 20% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Oil imports While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries, the United States swims against the tide

9 The power generation mix is set to change Global electricity generation by source, TWh Coal Renewables Gas Nuclear Oil Renewables electricity generation overtakes natural gas by 2015 & almost coal by 2035; growth in coal generation in emerging economies outweighs a fall in the OECD

10 A power shift to emerging economies Change in power generation, Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables China India United States European Union Japan TWh TWh The need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in worldwide demand, with China and India accounting for over half of the global growth

11 Share of electricity generation EU moving towards cleaner forms of electricity generation Electricity generation by selected low carbon technology and share of generation by scenario in the European Union, 2010 & 2035 TWh % 80% 60% 40% 20% 2010 Change to 2035 over 2010: 450 NPS 0 0% Nuclear Hydro Wind Bioenergy Solar PV Other renew. CCS Low carbon Wind & solar push up the share of renewables, with low-carbon reaching two-thirds of total generation in the NPS and around 90% in the 450 Scenario

12 The power sector becomes more capital intensive Investment by type in the New Policies Scenario, Total investment: $16.9 trillion Oil, 0.4% Nuclear, 6% Coal, 10% Gas, 6% Other, 3% Bioenergy, 4% Solar PV, 7% Transmission & distribution, 43% Renewables, 36% Hydro, 9% Wind, 13% The power sector needs almost half of the global investment in energy infrastructure, with renewables accounting for over 60% of the investments in new power plants

13 Increasing shares of renewables pose new challenges Installed wind & solar PV capacity and their contribution to system adequacy GW % Capacity not 80% contributing to system adequacy 60% 40% 20% Capacity credit Share of total installed capacity (right axis) 0 0% United States European Union China India Wind and solar are set to increase strongly, reaching almost one-fifth of global installed capacity in 2035, but their contribution to security of supply is limited

14 Increasing subsidies for increasing renewables Global renewable subsidies for electricity-generating technologies Billion $ $ Up to 2011 $120 $80 $1 590 billion $40 $ 960 billion $ Renewable subsidies amount to $3.6 trillion over including $2.6 trillion already committed to existing projects or needed to meet 2020 targets

15 Dollars per MWh (2011) Wide variations in the price of power Average household electricity prices, Renewables subsidy Network, retail and other Wholesale 40 0 United States European Union Japan China Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting in the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States

16 Energy efficiency: a huge opportunity going unrealised Energy efficiency potential used by sector in the New Policies Scenario 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Unrealised energy efficiency potential Realised energy efficiency potential Industry Transport Power generation Buildings Two-thirds of the economic potential to improve energy efficiency remains untapped in the period to 2035

17 The Efficient World Scenario: a blueprint for an efficient world Mtoe Total primary energy demand by scenario New Policies Scenario Efficient World Scenario Reduction in 2035 Coal 1350 Mtce Oil 12.7 mb/d Gas 680 bcm Others 250 Mtoe Economically viable efficiency measures can halve energy demand growth to 2035; oil demand savings equal the current production of Russia & Norway

18 Energy efficiency can help drive economic prosperity 4% Change in real GDP in the Efficient World Scenario compared with the New Policies Scenario, % 2% 1% Japan & Korea OECD Europe United States China India Investment in energy efficiency of $12 trillion is more than offset by fuel savings & triggers cumulative economic growth of $18 trillion

19 The Efficient World Scenario delays carbon lock-in Gt Other Transport Industry 2 C trajectory Lock-in of infrastructure in New Efficient Room Policies to World manoeuvre Scenario in Power generation Lock-in of existing infrastructure Energy efficiency can delay lock-in of CO 2 emissions permitted under a 2 C trajectory which is set to happen in 2017 until 2022, buying five extra years

20 Foundations of energy system shifting Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy, environmental & economic objectives Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine global economic & geopolitical balances Iraq set to play a pivotal role in global oil markets Power mix set to change, bringing new challenges & opportunities As climate change slips off policy radar, the lock-in point moves closer & the costs of inaction rise The gains promised by energy efficiency are within reach & are essential to underpin a more secure & sustainable energy system