Transportation Outlook

Transcription

1 Transportation Outlook Breakbulk China 212 Shanghai Susan Oatway Senior consultant March 1 st, 212

2 Agenda Drewry Breakbulk China Cargo Demand Competitive Threat Fleet Supply Market outlook

3 million tonnes Estimated development of general cargo market Drewry Breakbulk China ,5 General cargo market share Container market share MPV market share Total general cargo market 2, 1,5 1, 5 '3 '4 '5 '6 '7 '8 '9 '1 '11 '12f Source: Drewry Maritime Research, WTO

4 Drewry Breakbulk China Cargo Demand

5 Drewry Breakbulk China Dry cargo shipping markets General cargo in trailers, trade of dry cargo Reefer, vehicles, 62 General cargo in containers, 1,458 Source: Drewry Maritime Research Non-unitised general & project, 518 Minor bulk, 1,13 Major bulk, 2188 Primary cargo markets for Multi-Purpose Ships Major bulk (Multi-Purpose part) Other minor bulk (Multi-Purpose part) Neo/Agri-bulk (Multi-Purpose part) Containerised Gen Cargo (Multi-Purpose part) Other Unitised General Cargo Specialised General Cargo Non-Specialised Breakbulk General Cargo Competing vessel types Bulk Carriers Handy bulkers Handy bulkers Ro-Ro Ships Containerships Ro-Ro ships Con-Bulkers Ro-Ro ships Ferries Reeferships, car carriers, Ro-Ro ships Ro-Ro ships Heavy lift ships

6 Project cargo the invisible break-bulk volume Drewry Breakbulk China ) Most difficult cargo to analyse as comprises of a multitude of cargoes no manifest will state project cargo but rather oil pipes or railway locomotives or steel blades. 2) There are four main areas for project cargo growth; Mining, Civil Engineering, Oil & Gas & Chemicals and Power 3) Recent capital expenditure figures for these areas can be turned into potential volumes with the following assumptions: sea freight = 7.5% of value, average freight rate of $12/rev ton, average weight/measure ration is 2.5 cbm/tonne, 5% of project cargo is seaborne.

7 Potential growth in project cargo volumes (million tonnes) Drewry Breakbulk China Mining Civil Oil, gas, chemicals Power Source: Drewry Maritime Research, derived from PEG/BBA211

8 Drewry Breakbulk China Competitive threat

9 Drewry Breakbulk China Development of MPV market share (million tonnes) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, MPV share of general cargo General cargo MPV share of minor bulk trade Minor bulks MPV share of major bulk trade Major bulks MPV share of container trade Container trade 2, 1, Source: Drewry Maritime Research

10 million dwt no. vsls ' Teu no. vsls Drewry Breakbulk China Competitive threat Handy bulk carrier age profile Containership age profile <= Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize Current Fleet (rt axis) <= <1 teu teu teu teu teu teu 1 teu+ Current Fleet (rt axis) Source: Drewry Maritime Research

11 Drewry Breakbulk China Dry bulk and Container markets Weighted freight rates and supply/demand index comparison on East-West trades Forecast dry bulk period rates ($ per day) ,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, Handysize Handymax Panamax Capesize East-West supply/demand index Weighted East/West freight rate including fuel charges (US$ per teu, right axis) Weighted East/West freight rate excluding fuel charges (US$ per teu, right axis) , 2, Source: Drewry Maritime Research

12 Drewry Breakbulk China The Fleet

13 Drewry fleet definitions Drewry Breakbulk China Multipurpose vessel: - dry cargo carrier - between 1, and 54, dwt - grain or bale AND container capacity - lifting gear with minimum 25-tonne SWL Project carrier - multipurpose vessel built after with increased lifting capacity as below Gear SWL(mts) Standard PC Premium PC Premium + PC Vsl < 5, dwt Vsl 5-1, dwt Vsl 1-14,999 dwt Vsl 15-19,999 dwt Vsl 2-24,999 dwt Vsl 25, dwt Source: Drewry Maritime Research

14 MPV fleet age profile as at January 1 st, 212 ( dwt) Drewry Breakbulk China ,5 2, 1,5 1, Source: Drewry Maritime Research 25, dwt+ 2-24,999 dwt 15-19,999 dwt 1-14,999 dwt 5-9,999 dwt < 5, dwt

15 MPV fleet age profile by vessel type as January 1 st, 212 ( dwt) 2,5 Premium Project Carrier+ Premium Project Carrier Standard Project Carrier 2, Heavy Lift MPV/HL MPV Drewry Breakbulk China ,5 1, Source: Drewry Maritime Research

16 MPV fleet and orderbook as at January 1 st, 212 (million dwt) 1 Drewry Breakbulk China Orderbook Fleet <5, 5,-9,999 1,-14,999 15,-19,999 2,-24,999 25,+ Source: Drewry Maritime Research Dwt

17 ' dwt ' dwt Suggested development of the multi-purpose fleet Drewry Breakbulk China , 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 32, 3, 28, , -1,5 26, 24, 22, -2, -2,5 Deliveries Demolition Fleet (right axis) , Source: Drewry Maritime Research

18 Drewry Breakbulk China Market Outlook

19 World economic growth (% change) Drewry Breakbulk China f 213f Real GDP Trade in goods Source: Drewry Maritime Research, from IMF

20 Future growth in multipurpose share of dry cargo market (million tonnes) Drewry Breakbulk China Container Major Bulks Minor Bulks General Cargo Source: Drewry Maritime Research

21 Suggested fleet development by vessel type ( dwt) Drewry Breakbulk China , 35, 3, 3, 2, 25, 1, 2, -1, -2, -3, GC deliveries PC deliveries** MPV deliveries* MPV demolitions* HL demolitions GC demolitions MPV fleet* (right axis) PC fleet** (right axis) GC fleet (right axis) 15, 1, 5, -4, * Not including PC. ** Including HL. Source: Drewry Maritime Research

22 Drewry Breakbulk China 212 Growth in effective fleet versus growth in effective demand (%) 22 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% Fleet Growth Demand Growth Source: Drewry Maritime Research

23 Future concerns Drewry Breakbulk China )Competition from Handy bulk carriers due to the overfull orderbook with peak deliveries in 213 will lead to increased competition in the break bulk sector. And to a lesser extent the competition for container cargo will effect the short term market as carriers scrabble for cargo. 2) Although both global GDP and world trade have shown some recovery after the crash in 28/9, there is still some hesitation for new project start-ups. This inherent time lag will continue to effect recovery in this sector but will it cushion the market from the competition in the breakbulk sector? 3)The main growth area for the fleet is in project carriers and significant lift capability increases. Through investment in new ships & methods, project carriers have created a partially insulated niche within the break-bulk market, which theoretically should result in higher rates, higher profits and differentiated products/services. Is this niche sector really insulated from the competition seen in the general cargo market?

24 Thank you! Drewry Breakbulk China Drewry was founded in 197 as a provider of independent information and advise to the global maritime industry. Since then we have worked with over 4, clients in more than 1 countries. We are a privately owned and headquartered in London, operating from offices in India and Singapore with added support from an extensive global network of representatives. UK Office Drewry Christopher Street London EC2A 2BS,United Kingdom Telephone: +44 () info@drewry.co.uk India Office Drewry 29 Vipul Square, Sushant Lok-1 Gurgaon 1222, India Telephone: /32 india@drewry.co.uk Singapore Office Drewry 5 Shenton Way #33-2, UIC Building, Singapore 6888 Telephone: / singapore@drewry.co.uk