Shale Gas Development and Outlook: a Game Changer for Global Gas Markets?

Transcription

1 Shale Gas Development and Outlook: a Game Changer for Global Gas Markets? Oilfield Minerals Outlook Industrial Minerals Roundtable June 20 th, 2012 Houston, TX, Industry Economist Office of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels Analysis U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis

2 Overview What is shale gas? What could be learned from the U.S. experience? What are the initial estimates of shale gas resources outside the U.S? How does the world gas market might look like in 2035? 2

3 Underground sources of natural gas 3

4 4

5 Shale gas production is still a North American story Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration based on data from various published studies. Canada and Mexico plays from ARI. 5

6 Since January 2007, U.S. shale gas production has increased nearly 7-fold and in 2011 comprised over 30 percent of total U.S. dry production monthly shale gas production (dry) billion cubic feet per day Rest of US Bakken (ND) Eagle Ford (TX) Marcellus (PA and WV) Haynesville (LA and TX) Woodford (OK) Fayetteville (AR) Barnett (TX) Antrim (MI, IN, and OH) 5 0 1/1/2007 1/1/2008 1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 Sources: Lippman Consulting, Inc. gross withdrawal estimates as of April 2012 and converted to dry production estimates with EIA-calculated average gross-to-dry shrinkage factors by state and/or shale play. 6

7 Shale gas production can grow rapidly once access, technology, market, labor, water and environmental issues are addressed Barnett Eagle Ford or or 7

8 Monthly tight oil production for selected plays through February 2012 approaches 900 thousand barrels per day thousand barrels of oil per day 1, Eagle Ford Bakken Granite Wash Bonespring Monterey Woodford Niobrara Spraberry Austin Chalk 0 Source: HPDI, Texas RRC, North Dakota department of mineral resources, and EIA, through February

9 Foreign joint venture investment in U.S. shale gas and tight oil plays Foreign Domestic Amount Partner Country Partner Shale Play ($B) Year British Petroleum UK Chesapeake Woodford British Gas UK EXCO Marcellus StatoilHydro Norway Chesapeake Marcellus Reliance India Pioneer Eagle Ford Reliance India Atlas Marcellus Reliance India Carrizo Marcellus Total France Chesapeake Barnett CNOOC China Chesapeake Niobrara British Gas UK EXCO Haynesville Mitsui Japan Anadarko Marcellus CNOOC China Chesapeake Eagle Ford KNOC Korea Anadarko Eagle Ford Marubeni Japan Marathon Niobrara Mitsui Japan SM Energy Eagle Ford GAIL India Carrizo Eagle Ford Total France Chesapeake/EnerVest Utica Sinopec China Devon TMS, Niobrara,Utica Marubeni Japan Hunt Oil Eagle Ford Total Source: EIA, from trade press reports as of 27 February

10 Joint venture investment in Canada shale gas and tight oil plays Foreign Domestic Amount Partner Country Partner Shale Play ($B) Year Kogas Korea EnCana Montney Sasol Ltd South Africa Talisman Montney Cordova Mitsubishi Japan PennWest Embayment Petronas Malaysia Progress Energy Montney Inpex Japan Nexen Horn River/Montney Mitsubishi Japan EnCana Montney Total 7.07 Source: EIA, from trade press reports as of 27 February

11 El Paso Corp. reports that its deeper, longer lateral wells in the central area of the Eagle Ford play cost from $7 to $9 million 11

12 EIA component-based cost model for shale gas development predicts such a well would cost $8.3 million, an 8% error Other Drilling & Completion Costs Cost Equipment Costs Drilling/Completion $ 1,829,356 Misc./Rentals $ 612,079 TOTAL EQUIPMENT COSTS $ 2,441,435 Materials/Overhead Costs Cement $ 98,289 Chemicals/Fluids $ 399,581 Water $ 30,219 Fuel $ 229,227 Environmental/Safety $ 28,767 Water Pit/Location $ 151,739 Overhead/Permits $ 159,611 TOTAL MATERIALS/OVERHEAD COSTS $ 1,097,434 Fracturing Costs Fracturing $ 2,243,345 Perforation $ 241,220 Frac Water $ 615,111 TOTAL FRACTURING COSTS $ 3,099,675 Steel Costs Cost Casing Head (Fixed Cost) $ 25,500 Conductor $ 4,031 Surface Casing $ 41,740 Intermediate Casing $ 238,000 Production Casing $ 479,415 Tubing $ 70,000 TOTAL STEEL COSTS Labor Costs $ 858,686 Cost Consulting/Supervision $ 124,165 Drilling/Completion $ 243,182 Contract Labor $ 228,402 Fracturing $ 174,851 TOTAL LABOR COSTS $ 770,599 TOTAL OTHER DRILLING & COMPLETION COSTS $ 6,638,544 TOTAL WELL CAPEX $ 8,267,829 Source: EIA-ARI Component-based cost model for shale gas development 12

13 Preliminary estimates of the cost of a shale gas well in India Krishna-Godavari basin are between $6 million to $14 million Steel Costs, 16% Fracturing Costs, 46% D&C Labor, 5% Frac Labor, 5% Other Drilling and Completion Costs, 28% Assuming $792/ton of steel, 4,000 ft lateral and 10 frac stages Source: EIA-ARI Component-based cost model for shale gas development 13

14 How much resource is there? Theory Experiment Commercial Practice Geology Engineering / Technology Economics Gas in Place Technically Recoverable Resources Drilling Data 14

15 Technically recoverable natural gas resources reflect updated assessments U.S. dry gas resources trillion cubic feet Unproved shale gas Unproved other gas (including Alaska* and offshore) Proved reserves (all types including 60 Tcf shale) 2, , AEO Edition *Alaska resource estimates prior to AEO2009 reflect resources from the North Slope that were not included in previously published documentation. Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 15

16 Shale gas offsets declines in other U.S. natural gas production sources U.S. dry gas production trillion cubic feet per year 30 History 2010 Projections % Shale gas 49% 15 26% Tight gas 21% 10 9% Non-associated offshore 2% 9% Coalbed methane 7% 10% 5 Associated with oil Alaska 1% 7% 7% 21% Non-associated onshore 9% Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 16

17 Domestic natural gas production grows faster than consumption U.S. dry gas trillion cubic feet per year 30 History 2010 Projections Consumption Domestic supply Net imports Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 17

18 Natural gas price projections are lower than in AEO2011, consistent with recent market developments natural gas spot price (Henry Hub) 2010 dollars per million Btu History 2010 Projections AEO2011 AEO2012 Sources: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release and EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

19 Levelized electricity costs for new power plants, 2016 and cents per kilowatthour Natural gas Wind Incremental transmission costs Coal Nuclear Natural gas Wind 2035 Capital costs Fixed costs Variable costs, including fuel Coal Nuclear Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook

20 Natural gas, wind and other renewables account for the vast majority of capacity additions from 2010 to capacity Capacity additions 2010 to 2035 Hydropower* 101 (10%) Other renewables 17 (2%) Wind 39 (4%) Nuclear 101 (10%) 1,037 gigawatts Coal 313 (30%) Hydropower* 4 (2%) Other renewables 35 (16%) Wind 28 (13%) Nuclear 10 (4%) 222 gigawatts Coal 10 (5%) End-use coal 6 (3%) Other fossil 1 (0.4%) Natural gas 350 (34%) Other fossil 111 (11%) End-use coal 4 (0.4%) Natural gas 129 (58%) * Includes pumped storage Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2012 Early Release 20

21 Initial assessment of shale gas resources in 48 major shale basins in 32 countries indicates a large potential Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 21

22 How did we do our shale gas estimates: the case of China Source: EIA ARI World Shale Gas Resources 22

23 Resource Reservoir Properties Physical Extent Basic Data How did we do our shale gas estimates: the case of China Basin/Gross Area Sichuan Basin(81,500 mi²) Tarim Basin(234,200 mi²) Shale Formation Geologic Age Longmaxi Qiongzhusi O1/O2/O3 Shales Cambrian Shales Silurian Cambrian Ordovician Cambrian Prospective Area (mi 2 ) 56,875 81,500 55,042 63,560 Interval 300-1, , , ,500 Thickness (ft) Organically Rich Net Depth (ft) Interval 7,900-13,500 8,500-15,000 6,500-19,700 7,500-21,000 Average 10,700 11,500 13,000 14,000 Reservoir Pressure Average TOC (wt. %) Thermal Maturity (%Ro) Clay Content GIP Concentration (Bcf/mi 2 ) Risked GIP (Tcf) Risked Recoverable (Tcf) Source: EIA ARI World Shale Gas Resources Normal Normal Normal Normal 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.30% 2.50% 2.00% 2.50% Low/Medium Low/Medium Low/Medium Low/Medium ,373 1, , Using Langmuir isotherm formula and applying a play success probability of 50% and a prospective area success factor of 50% at Sichuan and Tarim basins provides a total risked gas-in-place (GIP) of 5,144 Tcf Applying a favorable gas recovery factor of 25% leads to a risked technically recoverable shale gas resource of 1,275 Tcf Media reports attributed to China Ministry of Land and Resources in Feb put total China shale estimates at 4,747 Tcf of GIP (8% lower than EIA) and probably applied 18.7 % to come with 886 Tcf (25 Tcm) of technically recoverable 23

24 Findings The initial shale gas technically recoverable resource (TRR) estimates for the 32 countries outside the U.S. is 5,760 Tcf More than ten times EIA s estimate for U.S. shale gas Together with U.S. shale gas, world shale gas TRR of 6,302 Tcf raises total estimated world TRR by over 40% to 22,592 Tcf These are moderately conservative risked estimates Not probabilistic estimates The methodology employed recognizes the sparseness and uncertainty of the data and includes conservative discounting of the potential resource 24

25 Findings (continued) Countries dependent on imports but have significant shale gas resource estimates relative to their production or consumption France, Poland, Turkey, Ukraine, South Africa, Morocco, Chile Countries that already produce a substantial amount of natural gas and are currently estimated to have a large amount of shale gas U.S., Canada, Mexico, China, Australia, Libya, Algeria, Argentina, Brazil Like the United States experience, early results from international drilling efforts may not be reflective of the full potential. However, it is understood that these are initial estimates of what could be possible 25

26 Technically recoverable shale gas resource estimates (trillion cubic feet) Continent Technically Recoverable North America (non U.S.) Canada, Mexico 1,069 (Tcf) U.S. 542 Total North America 1931 Africa Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Mauritania, Western Sahara, South Africa 1,042 Asia China, India, Pakistan 1,404 Australia 396 Europe South America France, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, U.K., Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine, Turkey Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay 624 1,225 Total 6,302 Total without U.S. 5,760 Source: EIA ARI World Shale Gas Resources 26

27 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Statistics 27

28 Non-OECD nations account for 76% of the growth in natural gas consumption in the IEO2011 Reference case world natural gas consumption trillion cubic feet History Projections Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

29 Strong growth in natural gas use based on abundant resources and expanded production from shale gas basins in many areas world energy consumption by fuel quadrillion Btu History 2008 Projections 29% 27% 34% 23% 28% Share of world total 23% 14% 10% 7% 5% Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

30 The Middle East and non-oecd Asia, mainly China and India, account for the largest increases in natural gas production world natural gas production increment, trillion cubic feet Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook

31 For more information U.S. Energy Information Administration home page Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Energy Outlook International Energy Outlook Monthly Energy Review World Shale Gas Resources: An Initial Assessment (202)