1 Outlook for US Ethane: Always Climbing a Wall of Worry Presented to the 2 nd Platts NGL Conference Peter Fasullo En*Vantage, Inc Sept 24, 212 Hilton Houston Post Oak
2 2 Introduction Throughout its history ethane has posed concerns up and down the NGL value chain Industry Player Gas Producers & Processors Midstream Cos. Petrochemical Cos. Historical Concern Sufficient ethane extraction economics to justify investments in cryogenic plants. Volume risks associated with handling NGLs with high ethane contents. The long-term availability of competitively priced ethane.
3 3 Basic Facts About Ethane Ethane - most economically sensitive NGL, extraction can be discretionary, and its price floor is set by natural gas. Ethane has only one major end use ethylene feedstock. The incentive to extract ethane is only as good as the economic viability of the US petrochemical industry. In the past 4 years, ethane frac spreads and cracking economics have been materially impacted by: Gas shortages - Late 197s/Early 198s; Early to Mid 2s Recessions - Mid 199s; Late 28/Early 29. Crude price collapses Late 199s; Q4 28 to Q1 29.
4 4 The Biggest Worry Today A chronic surplus of ethane will develop due to the drilling of rich hydrocarbon shale plays. Many believe ethane supplies will surge overtaking the petrochemical industry s ability to crack ethane. Predicting that ethane rejection could be widespread. So are these concerns justified or are they overblown? Let s examine the following areas: Recent history The factors that will drive ethane supply, demand and pricing.
5 5 Over the 27 to 211 Period Over 9 BCFD of new cryogenic processing capacity was built. NGL extraction climbed 57 MBPD - 31 MBPD was ethane. A global recession, followed by sluggish economic growth. A major build out of ethylene capacity in the ME, China and SE Asia. Incremental NGLs, mainly ethane efficiently absorbed, except during the recession in late 8/early 9. Petchems enhanced ethane cracking capability to 1.5 MM BPD, exceeding processors ability to extract ethane. US became net exporter of NGLs. Record NGL (ethane) frac spreads occurred in 21/211. One negative - NGL takeaway bottlenecks in Mid-Continent depressing Conway NGL prices.
6 6 What Happened in 1 st Half of 212? US ethane prices declined and frac spreads narrowed: Ethane extraction up 1 MBPD year over year to near 1 MM BPD. Additional volumes would have been efficiently consumed, but Ethylene plant turnarounds dropped ethane demand by 1%. Lack of winter weather created a propane surplus. Conway ethane prices remain depressed. Global economic slowdown dropped US polyethylene exports by ~14%. Ethane Inventories climbed to Record Levels. Ethane Rejection mainly in Mid- Cont.
7 7 More balanced Ethane Market for the Remainder of 212 and into 213 Majority of ethylene plant turnarounds completed. Ethane cracking capability enhanced. Ethane balances still very sensitive to plant outages. 4, US Ethane Inventories (1 Bbls) 7 Actual Ethane Days of Supply of Inventories Forecast Actual Forecast 6 35, 5 3, 25, Average Days-of-Supply 4 3 Average 2, 2 15, 1 1,
8 8 The Relative Value of Natural Gas to Crude Low gas-to-crude ratios combined with high crude prices is providing a significant BTU price spread between gas and crude, driving both the supply and demand for US NGLs. 1% 9% 8% Gas-to-WTI Price Ratio (On a Thermal Basis) vs the BTU Spread between WTI and Gas Gas-to-WTI Ratio BTU Spread Between WTI and Gas $2 $18 $16 Gas-to-Crude Ratio... 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ per MM BTU % YTD $
9 9 NGL Price Relationships and Frac Spreads 12% 1% 8% 6% 4% 2% % Mt Belvieu NGL Price Relationships to WTI Prices Ethane Propane N-Butane I-Butane C YTD Ethane s floor value, set by gas, has declined, allowing its market value to crude to drop to remain the preferred feedstock. Heavy NGLs have maintained their value relative to crude. $18 $16 $14 $12 $1 $8 $6 $4 $2 $ Low gas-to-crude ratios and high oil prices caused record high NGL frac spreads in 211. Ethane frac spreads lower this year. Heavy NGL frac spreads remain high. Ethane Propane N-Butane I-Butane C5+ NGL Frac Spreads at Mt. Belvieu ($ Per MM Btu) YTD
10 1 NGL Uplift Calculation for Typical Shale Play Cryogenic Processing Plant Shale Gas with 5 gpm of NGLs NGL Barrel Extracted 51% 27% Ethane¹ Residue Gas Propane ¹ Assumes 9% ethane recovery Butane + 22% Sep-212 NGL uplift $1.75/MM Btu versus $3.25 in 12 $/MM Btu $5.5 $4.5 $3.5 $2.5 $1.5 $.5 -$.5 $1.75 NGL Uplift for Average Shale Play (Using Sept 212 prices for Natural Gas and Mt Belvieu NGLs) $1.38 Uplift w/ ethane extraction $2.73/MM Btu Natural Gas $4.11/MM Btu Uplift w/o ethane frac spread Assumes 32% shrinkage plus 1% plant fuel $.14 $4.48/MM Btu $.37 $.78 $.58 $.79 $1.82 Gas + NGLs * Mt. Belvieu NGL prices net of T&F fees of 12 /gal. Ethane Propane I-Butane N-Butane C5+ Natural Gas
11 11 11 Rich Hydrocarbon Natural Gas Plays Rich Shale Play Corridors Rich Plays NGL (GPM) Content* Avalon/Bone Springs** 4. to 7. Bakken** 4. to 9. Barnett 2.5 to 3.5 Cana-Woodford 4. to 6. Eagle Ford*** 4. to 9. Granite Wash 4. to 6. Green River** 3. to 5. Niobrara** 4. to 9. Piceance-Uinta 2.5 to 3.5 Green River 2.5 to 3.5 Marcellus/Utica (Rich) 4. to 9. * gpm gallons of NGLs per 1 cu. ft. ** Oil Shale Plays *** Both an Oil and Gas Shale Play
12 Outlook for Lower 48 State Gas Production US Lower 48 Gas Production vs Demand (Trillion Cubic Feet) Net Imports Tight Gas Domestic Gas Demand Shale Gas 1 Coal Bed Methane 1 7% Associated w/ oil 7% Non-associated offshore 7% 7% 5 8% 5 9% Non-associated onshore 17% 12% % 29% 24% Source EIA AEO 212 1% 42% 22% Expect Lower 48 natural gas production rising 17% from 211 to 22. Shale gas production growth, offsetting the decline in the conventional gas plays. Source: EIA and En*Vantage 12
13 Primary Growth NGL is Ethane Followed by Propane 1,1 1, US NGLs Extracted From Gas Processing (Thousand BPD) Propane Natural Gasoline I-Butane Ethane N-Butane Periods of high gas-to-crude ratios 1,1 1, Ethane/NGL %: 33%...37%...39%...43% Source: EIA and En*Vantage 13
14 14 New Processing Plants 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Announced Processing Capacity (1 CFD) Rockies Bakken TX Inland TX GC Mid-Cont. SE NM Marc/Utica 13 BCFD of new gas processing capacity being built by % in the TX Inland and Gulf Coast regions. 34% will be built in the Marcellus/Utica region. Probable that another 4.9 BCFD would be built between 215 and 22.
15 Forecast of US NGL Extraction Capability Gas processing industry s NGL extraction capability: 2.45 MM BPD in 211 to about 3.42 MM BPD by 22. Ethane extraction capability: 1.4 MM BPD in 211 to 1.63 MM BPD by 22. Forecast Max NGL Extraction Capability Ethane forecast includes 24 MBPD from Marcellus/Utica post 216. NGL and ethane supplies from the M/U region could be greater, depends on economics and logistics. 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 15 (1 BDD) Forecast Propane, Butanes, Natural Gasoline Ethane , 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5
16 16 Potential Ethane Extraction in Marcellus/Utica Potential Marcellus/Utica Ethane Extraction: MBPD. Fractionation Capacity to De-Ethanize Ethane ~2 MBPD. Ethane Takeaway Capability will be 24 MBPD - ATEX (19 MBPD) and Mariner West (5 MBPD). However, Marcellus/Utica ethane has high T&F fees to Mt. Belvieu of 22 /gal to 3 /gal or $3.47 to $4 52/mm btu. Basic question will there be the economic incentive to bring more Marcellus/Utica ethane to market? Depends on future ethane demand by the petrochemical industry. If ethane demand is lacking then what? Marcellus/Utica ethane gets blended in the gas stream, and/or Producers have to throttle back rich gas production.
17 Distribution of Ethylene Capacity and Plants in North America* % of total N.A. ethylene capacity 12.5% Alberta 4 plants: 8.6 B Lb/Yr N. America: 42 Plants: 69. Billion Lbs/Yr Ethane Cracking Capability 1,2 US 1,5 MBPD (211) Alberta 25 MBPD Sarnia 45 MBPD Total NA 1295 MBPD 1 Includes refining ethane Sarnia 2 plants: 2.3 B Lb/Yr 2 plants: 2.5 B Lb/Yr 3.6% Midwest 3.3%.6% 1 plants:.4 B Lb/Yr 2 Assumes 1% operating rate * Excludes Mexico 8.% 33 plants: 55.2 B Lb/Yr Source: En*Vantage, Hodson, Industry Contacts 17 Gulf Coast
18 Ethane Cracking Can Soar in a Low Gas-to-Crude Price Environment Since 28, ethane has been the most preferred petrochemical feedstock, driving its consumption to record levels ethane cracking above 1 MM BPD when ethylene industry operates ~ 95% of capacity High Gas-to-Crude Environment Ethylene Feedstock Margins (Cents per Pound) Record High Crude Prices Ethane Feedstock Margins Naphtha Feedstock Margins Crude Price Collapse Recession Very Low Gas-to-Crude Environment Individual Feed Volumes (MBPD) U.S. Ethylene Feedstock Consumption - MBPD Ethane High Gas-to-Crude Ratio Environment Hurricanes Heavy Feeds ( to April-12) Propane N-Butane Hurricanes & Recession 8 Low Gas-to-Crude Ratio Environment Source: Hodson Reports and En*Vantage Source: En*Vantage, Hodson, Industry Contacts 18
19 US Ethylene Industry Continuing to Enhance Ethane Capability at Existing Plants Capability to Crack Ethane at End of MM BPD Ethane cracking capability is expected to increase - furnace conversions, plant expansions and a plant restart: Year End Increases in C2 Cracking Capability Cumulative Increase in C2 Cracking Capability Total Industry C2 Cracking Capability (MBPD) (MBPD) (MM BPD) Assumes 1% operating rates at plants maximizing ethane as a feed 19 Source: En*Vantage, Industry Contacts
20 New World-Scale US Ethylene Plants Announced or Under Consideration 2 Company Location Est. Cap B Lb/Yr Ethane Cracking Capability (MBPD) Est. to be Online Probability Formosa Pt Comfort, TX High Exxon Baytown, TX High Dow Freeport, TX High CP Chem Cedar Bayou, TX High Sasol Lake Charles, LA Fair Shell Western PA Unknown Oxy/Mexichem Ingleside, TX Unknown Total ~18.7 billion lbs/yr of new ethylene plant capacity has been announced or being considered, representing 526 MBPD of ethane cracking capability. High probability for 4 new plants MBPD of ethane cracking capability. Fair chance that Sasol will build a new plant in Lake Charles. Foreign petrochemical companies are also doing feasibility studies to build new ethylene plants in US.
21 21 Let s Not Forget Canada In total, 9 to 1 MBPD of US Ethane is expected to be exported to Canada. Alberta ethane crackers facing a 4 to 8 MBPD ethane supply shortfall over the next ten years. Will import 4 to 5 MBPD of ethane from the Bakken Shale through the proposed Vantage pipeline (late 213). Sarnia ethylene plants can crack about 45 MBPD of ethane. The Mariner West project (mid-213) will send Marcellus ethane to Sarnia. Likely that Nova will expand Sarnia ethylene plant. Kinder Morgan transporting 1 to 15 MBPD of E/P mix to Nova in Sarnia via their Cochin pipeline. Sourcing E/P mix from Conway via Enterprise s MAPL system. Only a bridge for Nova until Mariner West is completed.
22 Maximum Demand for US Ethane Max ability to crack US ethane is expected to grow from 1.5 MM BPD in 211 to ~ 1.75 MM BPD by 218. Enhancements to existing ethylene plants MBPD of ethane cracking capability. Ethane exports to Canada - 1 MBPD by 215. High probability new ethylene plants - 32 MBPD of ethane cracking capability by ,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Max Cracking Capability for US Ethane (1 BPD) Low Probability New Plants Fair Probabilty New Plants High Probability New Plants US Ethane Cracked in Canada Converisons/Expansions/Restarts Base C2 Cracking Capability If Sasol builds new ethane cracker, max demand for US ethane approaches 1.85 MM BPD. If low probability plants are built, max ethane demand reaches 2 MM BPD by 219. Source: En*Vantage, Industry Contacts 22
23 Max US Ethane Supply Capability vs Max Ethane Cracking Capability Through 213, close balance between ethane supply and demand. From 214 to 215 ethane supply overhang is likely, but can be resolved by rejecting ethane in the Marcellus/Utica. Post 215, more ethane needed to support 4 to 7 world-scale ethane crackers. Incremental ethane will come from the Marcellus/Utica. 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Max US Ethane Supply vs Max Ethane Cracking Capability (1 BPD) Low Probability New Plants Moderate Probability New Plants High Probability New Plants US Ethane Cracked in Canada Converisons/Expansions/Restarts Base C2 Cracking Capability Max C2 Supply Additonal C2 Supply from Marcellus ,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Source: En*Vantage, Industry Contacts 23
24 Outlook for Ethane Frac Spreads Ethane Frac Spreads $.55 $.5 Actual Forecast $8. $.45 $.4 Mt Belvieu $7. $6. Cents Per Gal $.35 $.3 $.25 $.2 $.15 Conway $5. $4. $3. $2. $ Per MM BTU $.1 $.5 $1. $ $. Source: En*Vantage, Industry Contacts 24
25 25 In Summary Expect ethane balances to improve for the remainder of the year and into need the ethylene industry operating at above 9% of capacity. Marginal frac spreads for ethane in 214 and 215 to regulate the flow of ethane from the Marcellus/Utica and keep ethane markets balanced. Post 215, full ethane extraction is needed as world-scale ethylene plants come on line. Ethane imbalances will occur, but they won t be chronic. Ethane will always be very susceptible to ethylene industry swings. Biggest threats to ethane - a global recession, a collapse in crude prices, and/or a spike in gas prices.
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