Progress in development of GLobal EMEP MOdelling System (GLEMOS) for HMs and POPs

Transcription

1 Progress in development of GLobal MOdelling System (GLEMOS) for HMs and POPs Alexey Gusev, Oleg Travnikov, Victor Shatalov, Olga Rozovskaya Meteorological Synthesizing Centre East 15 th TF MM meeting, 8-10 April 2014, Bologna, Italy

2 Current activities on implementation of the new grid (latitude/longitude) Preparation of input information for the new domain (meteorological and geophysical data, emissions) Global modelling using GLEMOS Adaptation of GLEMOS for regional simulations in the new grid Pilot simulations in the new grid with high spatial resolution and their evaluation Refinement of GLEMOS parameterizations Directions of further work Current Current and New domains

3 Preparation of model input data for the new domain New domain peculiarities (e.g. complex orography of Himalayas) Generation of meteorological input Land use/land cover information (consistency between Centres and WGE) Data on reactants and aerosols in the atmosphere Generation of data on sea currents Data on underlying surface characteristics and vegetation (LAI, OM content, ) Geophysical data (Orography) Meteorological input (Precipitation) Land cover (Forests and shrubs)

4 Preparation of emissions for HMs and POPs Emission data for regional modelling: Time-series of gridded annual emissions Intra-annual variations of emissions Emissions to other environmental media Speciation for Hg, congener composition for POPs Vertical distribution Secondary sources (re-suspension, re-volatilization) Natural emissions Emissions, μg/m 2 /day % 0.0 Residue 34% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jan B[a]P emissions (Czech Republic) Feb PCDD/F emission (UNEP, 68 countries) 40% Mar Product 9% Apr PCDD/F emissions composition Air May Jun Land 10% Jul Aug Sep Water 2% Oct 45% Nov TCDF 12PeCDF 23PeCDF 14HxCDF 16HxCDF 23HxCDF 19HxCDF 78HpCDF 89HpCDF OCDF TCDD PeCDD 4HxCDD 6HxCDD 7HxCDD HpCDD OCDD Dec

5 Preparation of emissions for HMs and POPs Global emission inventories: Global Hg emissions inventory for 2010 (AMAP/UNEP, 2013) Global PCB emissions inventory for (Breivick, 2007) Global PCDD/F emissions inventory based on UNEP Toolkit, (Fiedler et al., 2007, 2012) Scenario of global HCB emissions (MSC-E) Hg PCDD/Fs g/km 2 /y mg TEQ/km 2 /y

6 Pollution of domain by global sources Global scale modelling provides: Hg deposition (2010) Boundary conditions for domain Initial concentrations in media within domain Contributions of non- anthropogenic and secondary emissions Influence of emissions on other regions (e.g. Arctic) pollution by different sources types 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% anthropogenic Global anthropogenic Secondary sources 0% Pb Cd Hg BaP PCDD/Fs HCB PCB

7 Intercontinental transport of Hg Source-receptor modelling experiments (TF HTAP) Simulated Hg annual deposition in 2010 (GLEMOS) Source regions Hg deposition flux, g/km 2 /y Source apportionment of Hg deposition (2010) Source/receptor regions: North America Mexico & Central America South America Europe CIS countries Africa Middle East East Asia South Asia South East Asia Australia and New Zealand Arctic Antarctica Natural and legacy sources

8 pollution by PCDD/F global sources Experimental modelling (in lat/lon projection) using UNEP Stockholm Convention data on PCDD/F emissions National inventories of PCDD/F emissions of 68 countries (PCDD/F Toolkit) Expert estimates for other countries using regression analysis Emission inventories cover the period ~ Scenario of emissions includes PCDD/F releases to air and soil PCDD/F air concentrations for 2012 Contributions of and other sources Other 19% Secondary 20% Anthropogenic 61% fg TEQ/m 3

9 pollution by global PCB and HCB sources HCB air concentrations for 2012 Contributions of and other sources Anthropogenic 11% Other 33% Secondary 56% pg/m 3 PCB-153 air concentrations for 2012 HCB Other 25% Anthropogenic 31% pg/m 3 Secondary 44% PCB-153

10 Pilot model simulations for Hg in the new grid Simulated annual Hg deposition flux (July 2010) Global (1 1 ) Regional ( )

11 Evaluation of pilot modelling results Map of simulated Hg wet deposition and comparison with measurements (July 2010) 2.5 2:1 1:1 2.0 Hg wet deposition ( ) and locations of monitoring sites There is ongoing work on the comparison with modelling results for currently used domain Modelled, g/km 2 /y Observed, g/km 2 /y Global Regional Global (1 x1 ) and regional (0.2 x0.2 ) Hg wet deposition vs. measurements 1:2

12 Evaluation of pilot modelling results Hg modelled concentration vs. measurements at Waldhof (DE2) Location of Waldhof site Comparison of hourly Hg concentration, January DE g/km 2/month Underlying map Hg anthropogenic emissions (0.2 x0.2 ) (1 x1 ) Hg 0 concentration, ng/m 3 Hg(II)part concentration, pg/m Gaseous elemental Hg Obs Model (global) Model (regional) DOY Obs Model (1 x1 ) Model (1 x1 ) Particulate Hg Obs Model (global) Model (regional) DOY

13 Fine resolution modelling of HMs Country-specific case studies: Netherlands, 5x5 km2 ¾ Preparation of fine scale model input data ¾ Nesting from regional to local scale ¾ Comparison of modelling results with fine resolution national measurements Czech Republic, 5x5 km2 Croatia, 10x10 km2 ¾ Application of inverse modelling for the analysis of discrepancies ¾ Improvement of model parameterizations when modelling with fine resolution Pb, Cd deposition in the Netherlands, Croatia, and the Czech Republic

14 Further development of GLEMOS Elaboration of multi-media model approach for Hg Development of model parameterizations: Air-water exchange of Hg between the atmosphere and the ocean Hg oxidation and reduction under solar and dark conditions Hg adsorption by suspended particulate matter and colloids Methylation and demethylation (biotic and abiotic) General cycling of Hg in the ocean Literature survey of Hg processes in seawater is in press in Ocean Science Discussion (Batrakova et al., 2014)

15 Further development of GLEMOS Sub-grid vertical distribution of air concentration Motivation: Significant vertical gradients of highly reactive species near the ground Vertical profile of Hg content in air Lowest model layer Approach: F V dry C( z) = 9 ( z) = Vdry ( z) C ( z) const 1 ( z) = (R ( z) + R + R ) Hg(II)gas, pg/m 3 C ref 12 dry = 6 3 a a ref a b R ( z) + R R + R b b c + R + R c c Height, m 30 Observations Model (1st 20 layer) Hg(II)gas Hg(II)part Model (5 m) 10 5 m DOY C / C 1

16 Further development of GLEMOS Parameterizations of POP sorption on aerosols and degradation in particulate phase Motivation: Differences between modelled and measured seasonal air concentrations Sorbed on mineral aerosol 10% Gaseou s 18% Modifications: Inclusion of POP sorption mechanisms to different components of aerosol particles (mineral part, OC, EC) Inclusion of POP degradation in particulate phase Sorbed on EC 32% Sorbed on OC 40% Distribution of B[a]P in air between different phases at 10 ºC (background regions)

17 Further development of GLEMOS Parameterizations of POP sorption on aerosols and degradation in particulate phase Motivation: Differences between modelled and measured seasonal air concentrations Modifications: Inclusion of POP sorption mechanisms to different components of aerosol particles (mineral part, OC, EC) Inclusion of POP degradation in particulate phase Modelled, ng m Previous parameterizations Modified parameterizations B[a]P in air Measured, ng m -3 Improvement of agreement between modelled and measured B[a]P concentrations Rel. bias Corr Previous 39 % 0.59 Modified -5 % 0.68

18 Preparation of GLEMOS for public use Main components of distribution: Free access to the model code (GPLv3) Model documentation and user guide Input data for test model runs Examples of the model applications (Hg and POPs) Web portal for support of public access and use of the model by countries GLEMOS GLEMOS features: Multi-scale consistent approach (from global to local) Multi-pollutant formulation (HMs, POPs, aerosol,...) Multi-media model approach Flexible modular architecture Base model domains: and global

19 Dissemination of results Source attribution of Hg deposition to fishing areas (2010) Simulated Hg annual deposition in 2010 (GLEMOS) FAO fishing areas 2 Hg deposition flux, g/km /y Fisheries production, x10 t/y Hg deposition flux - Total marine capture fisheries production (FAO, 2013) 18 - Arctic Sea 21 - Northwest Atlantic 27 - Northeast Atlantic 31 - Western Central Atlantic 34 - Eastern Central Atlantic 37 - Mediterranean and Black Sea 41 - Southwest Atlantic 47 - Southeast Atlantic 48 - Antarctic Atlantic 51 - Western Indian Ocean 57 - Eastern Indian Ocean 58 - Antarctic Indian Ocean 61 - Northwest Pacific 67 - Northeast Pacific 71 - Western Central Pacific 77 - Eastern Central Pacific 81 - Southwest Pacific 87 - Southeast Pacific 88 - Antarctic Pacific

20 Dissemination of results Results of Hg pollution assessment were used during preparation of UNEP Minamata Convention

21 Directions of further activities Transition to the lat/lon grid with fine resolution Improvement of ocean module and multi-media approach Source apportionment of HM and POP pollution over longer periods (tagging of accumulation and media exchange) Evaluation of secondary sources contributions (re-volatilization and re-suspension) Focus of the assessment output on evaluation of HM and POP impacts on human health and ecosystems Enhancement of co-operation with international organizations (UNEP Minamata and Stockholm Conventions, AMAP)