Adapting to Extreme Rainfall
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1 Adapting to Extreme Rainfall Using the 2008 Baraboo River flood to prepare for climate change. Aldo Leopold Foundation September 12, 2015 David S. Liebl Wisconsin Initiative on Climate change Impacts UW-Madison, EPD UW-Cooperative Extension
2 Acknowledgements Ken Potter Civil and Environmental Engineering (Co-PI) Chris Kucharik - UW Agronomy David Lorenz, Michael Notaro, Steve Vavrus, Dan Vimont - CCR Doug Brugger & Daniel Fletcher, M.S Civil & Environmental Engineering TranStorm Stakeholder Working Group NOAA Climate and Societal Interaction - Sectoral Applications Research Program, Project NA12OAR
3 Overview General Circulation Models (GCMs) downscaled for Wisconsin predict significant increases in the magnitude and frequency of large rainfall events. However, there are very large variations across models, limiting their direct use for water resource design, management, and planning. Adaptation to climate change should focus on Identify rainfall vulnerabilities Improving resilience through design and management Extreme storm transposition is a useful adaptation tool.
4 Scientific consensus on climate change There is a strong, credible body of evidence, based on multiple lines of research, documenting that climate is changing, and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities. US National Research Council, 2010 Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts Understanding how we can adapt to the consequences of a changing climate.
5 Summary of Wisconsin s Projected Climate More frequent hot days Significant increase in heat waves Warmer nighttime and winter temperatures Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation Significant increase in rain during winter Impact on short term variability (weather) not projected
6 Historic Climate Change Upper Midwest Precipitation Trends of 10 of the wettest years for daily precipitation have occurred since 1978 S. Vavrus, Center for Climatic Research
7 Projected change in annual precipitation % (SRES A1B) It s likely to become wetter, not drier
8 Projected heavy rainfall Change in >2-24hr rain: +2-5 per decade Statistically downscaled GCM, (SRES A1B)
9 Increase continues over time Projected change in >2-24hr rain: +4-7 per decade Statistically downscaled GCM, (SRES A1B) Large storms become more frequent, with heavier precipitation
10 Year Projected Return Period vs Historical NARCCAP RCM Projections late-20 th vs. mid-21 st -Vavrus and Behnke, " 2.5" 3.0" 3.5" 4.0" 5.0" Storm frequency Storm Intensity Inch 7 Storm intensity 6 Storm Intensity vs Historical NARCCAP year 5 years 10 years 25 years 50 years 100 years Return Period
11 Why we are concerned about future precipitation Flooding and extreme rainfall threaten life prosperity
12 Record Rainfall World-wide - 72 in 24-hours La Reunion, Indian Ocean (1966) Wisconsin in 24 hours Stoddard, Vernon County (August 18, 2007) Milwaukee (Mitchell) Record Daily Precipitation Rank Rainfall (in.) Date August July June June June July of the 10 wettest days have occurred since September June September August 1998
13 North Milwaukee, July 22, in one hour 2,000 calls for sewer backups into basements CSO of around 2 billion gallons Beaches closed through July 25th.. Source: Milwaukee Jo
14 High Water Impacts National Weather Service, Milwaukee/Sullivan
15 Soil loss from increased precipitation Climate Impacts on erosion difficult to predict, best estimate % Figure 3. Wisconsin Buffer Initiative estimates of sediment delivered to watershed outlet. (1 t/acre = 224 tonnes/sq km) - Diebel et al Soil conservation and water quality are compatible with current and emerging expectations of Wisconsin s farmlands, provided that practices we largely know how to do are widely implemented by our farmers. - WICCI Soil Conservation Working Group
16 Stormwater Runoff Runoff from large storm events transports nutrients and sediment to lakes, degrading water quality and causing eutrophication. Photos: R. Lathrop Photo: Melvin McCartney
17 Vulnerability to Extreme Rainfall Hydrologic design employs estimates of rainfall probabilities based on historic data. Existing infrastructure designed to historic standards may be inadequate. Climate change will influence these probabilities (at a future date). However designers are not a liberty to speculate on future conditions, and projections are uncertain. Thus, recent extremes provide an opportunity to improve resiliency to changing conditions.
18 Historic Precipitation Change 2 daily rainfalls have increased 3.5 days to 1.5 days since 1950 Extreme Precipitation in Madison -Vavrus Wisconsin Kucharik
19 Hydrologic design is based on history The record used may actually reflect a drier period (TP40, ) Largest Daily Rainfall Madison, WI Mississippi River at Clinton Annual Flood Peaks Rainfall (inches) 3 2 Discharge (cfs) Year Year Are we designing for historic climate? - Potter
20 High Water Storms June 1-15, 2008 DNR 38 River gauges broke records 810 Square miles of land flooded 161 Communities overflowed 90 million gallons raw sewage 2,500 Drinking water wells tested - 28% contaminated $34M in damage claims paid Source: FEMA, WEM
21 Baraboo Extreme Storm Transposition Use an infrequent storm from one location as a design storm in another area. Practical, given uncertainty in climate change projections Objective method for assessing extreme storm vulnerabilities Madison NOAA CSI-SARP NA12OAR
22 Basic Storm Transposition Steps Reconstruct spatial and temporal pattern of historical storms based on NEXRAD and rain gage data. Use the transposed rainfall as input to a hydrologic model of system under investigation. Identify storm impacts (vulnerabilities) Use the storm and model to explore design, operation, and management questions. Apply what is learned to developing strategies for resilience.
23 Precipitation Data Derived from NEXRAD Radar La Crosse (KARX) and Milwaukee (KMKX) stations 15-minute gridded rain depths Better spatial and temporal resolution than gages - Brugger
24 NEXRAD Precipitation Data June 2-13, 2008 cumulative precipitation 16 in 5 in 2 in - Brugger
25 Calibrated Rainfall Data High Temporal Spatial Resolution Arlington Madison Stoughton - Brugger
26 Processing Method Model Units GIS Vertices NEXRAD Data MATLAB Precipitation time series Northern Yahara River Basin - Brugger
27 Example: UW-Arboretum June 3-14, 2008 Actual centroid of greatest accumulation (Parfrey s Glen) Transposition centroid (UW-Arboretum)
28 15-Minute Rainfall for UW-Arboretum Actual Rainfall 8.9 Transposed Rainfall 17.7
29 Modeled Lake Inflows transposed vs. un-transposed 36.6% increase - Fletcher
30 Peak Stage: Year Flood Stage: Duration above 100 Year Flood Stage: 10 Days - Fletcher
31 peak stage 6 DEM - Fletcher
32 Impacts of Lake management Legal Guidelines exist for managing lake under 100-year flood level It is likely that Lake Managers would take efforts to prevent flooding around Mendota There is significant capacity for lake release from Lake Mendota Downstream impacts would be substantial
33 What we learned Storm Transposition allows evaluation of vulnerability to extreme storms in locations lacking previous storm experience The ability to transpose to any point within the extreme storm provides a range of rainfall scenarios Lake control behavior has a significant impact on duration and downstream flooding If/when an actual extreme rainfall does occur, municipalities in the Yahara watershed can be better prepared.
34 Planning for Climate Impacts Long planning horizon Climate change occurs over decades, what community planning and management strategies are on the same time scale? Predictive uncertainty Are management strategies flexible enough to respond to the range of climate impacts and uncertainty? Sustainable alternatives More of the same may not be the best long term solution? Look for high risk + good cost-benefit
35 Climate Ready Communities Climate Awareness Vulnerability Assessment : Extreme heat Drought Heavy rainfall Warm winters Adaptation Capacity: Planning Resiliency Communities should be prepared for today s rare weather extremes, they will become more common - WICCI
36 Adapting to Extreme Precipitation Resiliency If a system is prepared for current variability, it s likely to be prepared for future trends Many communities design and mange their systems based on recent experience Is east-central Wisconsin prepared? Liebl and Schuster
37 Sources of data for historic extreme rainfall events: Ed Hopkins Assistant State Climatologist
38 Sources of data for recent extreme rainfall events: Sept. 4,
39 Sources of data for recent extreme rainfall events:
40 >7 5 Daily Exceedences event/year
41 >7 5 Daily Exceedences event/year
42 5 Daily Exceedences event/yr 5.8 /event 2.5 Hourly Exceedences > >2.5 /hour Liebl, 2014
43 Community Vulnerability Assessment - Rainfall Floodplains and surface flooding At-risk road-crossings Stormwater BMPs Hazardous materials storage Emergency response capacity Wells and septic systems Sanitary sewer inflow and infiltration
44 Wisconsin s climate adaptation report Changes: Climate Trends in Wisconsin Understanding Adaptation Impacts: Water Resources Natural Habitat and Biodiversity Agriculture and the Soil Resource Coastal Resources People and their Environment Actions: Implementing Adaptation Moving Forward
45 Questions? - Joel and Ethan Cohen
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