Regulatory Roundtable. Are you ready for the Next Generation Network (NGN)?

Transcription

1 R Are you ready for the Next Generation Network (NGN)? Doc no: telwg29/ RR/10 Agenda item : Regulatory Roundtable Submitted by: Singapore Are you ready for the Next Generation Network (NGN)? Contact: Tan Geok-Leng tan_geok_leng@ida.gov.sg APEC Telecommunications and Information Working Group 29th Meeting March 2004 Hong Kong, China Please note: This document is not an official APEC document until approved by the Telecommunications and Information Working Group. This version is a draft provided for discussion purposes only.

2 Are you ready for the Next Generation Network (NGN)? By Dr. Tan Geok-Leng CTO (covering), IDA Singapore March 2004 Confidential IDA Singapore 2004 The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the IDA. All trademarks are property of their respective owners. The author fully acknowledges inputs from James Seng and all others who provided inputs in one way or another

3 Agenda Review of characteristics of traditional networks (PSTN, Mobile and Internet). The Next Generation Network Vision and its how we get there. Potential Services on the NGN. 2

4 The traditional Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) Built to provide VOICE service Intelligence at the core (central switch) Dedicated circuit set up for each call Dumb terminals (cheap CPE) ATM, SDH, copper local loop Very reliable (99.999% up time) Licensed and highly regulated Usually monopoly or duopoly Universal service obligation Emergency call service 3

5 Public Switched Telephone Network 4

6 The Mobile Telecom Network Built to provide VOICE/data service Intelligence at the core (central switch) Dumb mobile devices BSS, MSS, HLR/VLR, SIM cards Dedicated circuit set up for each call Less reliable than PSTN Licensed and highly regulated Two or more competing providers Emergency call service Interconnect to other mobile networks and PSTN by agreements 5

7 Mobile Network 6

8 The Internet Built over PSTN to provide data service Information is routed, not switched Best efforts rather than guaranteed QoS Intelligence at the edge, large variety of devices and services connected to the internet Licensed(?) and unregulated Many competing providers No Universal Service Obligation or Emergency call service Interconnect between clouds by peering or transit agreements 7

9 Internet 8

10 Net-heads versus Bell-heads Packet switch VS circuit switch Routing VS switching Per-hop routing VS predetermined circuits setup before hand Intelligence at end points VS at core Dumb pipes VS Dumb terminals Just good enough VS % Best efforts VS Guaranteed service Grass roots/bottoms up VS top down Geeks/Users VS the telephone company 9

11 Paradoxes So should the network be intelligent or stupid? The current school of thought is the best network just move the bits But the best network is also hardest to make money Optimization Paradox If you optimize for one application, you de-optimize for others 10

12 What is driving the NGN? 11

13 The Next Generation Network (NGN) NGN Applications And Services IP Broadband Wired, Wireless MPLS/GMPLS Optical network 12

14 Evolution to the NGN Today Multiple networks Simple devices Disparate services Transition Converged packet network Multimedia devices Linked services Next Generation Network packet/optical network Multimedia services Ubiquitous broadband Integrated functionality 13

15 What can we expect from the NGN? Always-on infrastructure Fast broadband connectivity Multi-modal; wired, wireless seamless Network everywhere concept Global connectivity and roaming Intelligent devices and smart services User centric; technology disappears into the background 14

16 Some areas to watch More devices than people connected to the net (sensors, M2M, intelligent) Web services and semantic web Intelligent agents and virtual doubles GRID (data, information, computing) ASP, MSP and Utility computing Last mile - Wireless broadband, FTTX Last feet WLAN, Zigbee, UWB 15

17 Business Paradigm Traditional Telecom Model New Telecom Model Value-Added Service Voice Data Service Value-Added Service Voice Service Infrastructure Data Service Infrastructure Voice is is just one of the application 16

18 Paradigm shift Shift will occur across many years but it is extremely disruptive Data is taking up a larger percentage of bandwidth then Voice. Moving data is a low-margin business (exception: SMS) Value seems to be in content and services Balancing act: Infrastructure providers wants to recover their sunken investments Service providers will demand open access 17

19 Instant Messaging 18

20 Gaming 19

21 P2P Downloads Download music, software and even DVD movies Problem or opportunity? 20

22 IP Telephony NGN Broadband Incumbent carriers are in mortal danger, 70% of the revenue comes from voice but anyone with a broadband connection can now provide voice as a service. Quote from NGN

23 Context aware, location based services Now you go to the net for information, in the future, The net delivers appropriate information to you Based on where and who you are! 22

24 Many more Many more innovative applications and services waiting for innovators and entrepreneurs to discover Most of the great stuff we hear will actually fail! We tend to overestimate technology s impact in the short term and underestimate in the long term. So don t fall into We know best trap. 23