PSRC Freight Roundtable
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1 PSRC Freight Roundtable Compendium of Analyses of the Impact of the Panama Canal Expansion on US Ports Mike Zachary, Principal Consultant October 7,
2 Agenda The Panama Canal The Ocean Carriers The Ports The Railroads The Shippers The Bottom Line Advisian / 2
3 Data Sources 1. S&P Global Platts Global Shipping Asia Conference, 16 Sept 2016 notes 2. Lars Jensen, CEO and Partner SeaIntelligence Consulting; Presentation July 16, 2016 to GLG Transportation Council 3. OECD Insights Sept 9, 2016; Rough waters for container shipping. Why Hanjin, the world s seventh largest container line, went under by Olaf Merk, Ports and Shipping expert at the International Transport Forum, OECD 4. LinerGrid Whitepaper Sept 2, 2016; Transpacific Network Optimization; published in American Shipper Sept 14, 2016 by Chris Dupin 5. US Dept. of Transportation, Maritime Administration, Phase 1 Report Panama Canal Expansion Study; November American Shipper Sept 29, 2016 Container Shipping: Confusing symptoms with the cure ; Ben Meyer 7. Presentation All eyes on capacity, by Mark Szakonyi, Executive Director JOC.Com and Principal Consultant IHS-Markit; JOC Conference, Jacksonville, FL Aug 11, Shanghai Containerized Freight Index ( 9. Alphaliner Weekly Review, to Volume 2016, Issue 28 Advisian / 3
4 The Panama Canal Expansion Completed June 2016 Maximum vessel is 14,000 teus Suez Canal vs. Panama Canal The Van Horne Institute, Factors Impacting North American Freight Distribution in View of the Panama Canal Expansion, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Hofstra University 2010 Advisian / 4
5 Where are the Hot Spots for Canal Cargoes US DOT (MARAD) Phase 1 Report Advisian / 5
6 The Ocean Carriers Number 1 Concern is Over Capacity Advisian / 6
7 The Ocean Carriers Idle Fleet Capacity 1 5.3% The number of idle panamaxes of 4,000-5,100 teu currently reaches a record high of 93, with a further panamax ships to be withdrawn from service by the end of the year 9 Alliances- Asia-Europe Trade Lane carriers; 2 independent; 21 in seven vessel sharing agreements carriers; 9 independent; 11 in 3 alliances (more formal than VSAs) carriers; 5 independent; 12 in 3 alliances carriers; 0 independent with all in 4 alliances carriers; all in 3 alliances Sept 16 th spot rates: $1,686/FEU to Shanghai to USWC; $2,433 to USEC 6,8 (Aug 5 th rates were $1,450 and $1,950 8 ) Advisian / 7
8 The Ocean Carriers Alliances 2017 with 5 year commitments 2M: Maersk, MSC and HMM The Ocean Alliance: Evergreen, OOCL, CMA CGM, COSCO THE Alliance: NYK, MOL, K-Line, NYK, Hapag Lloyd/USAC, Yang Ming and Hanjin Slow steaming 1,2,3 and blank sailings Estimated to be 10%-15% 100% due to capacity issues 17 knots versus 20 knots Hanjin Debacle- 3% of global market share (see previous point) Advisian / 8
9 The Ocean Carriers The Impact of Mega-vessels. LinerGrid s 4 analysis of current Transpacific Network optimization found 15 weekly transpacific services from the G6 carriers uses 114 vessels Key was asset utilization with the carrier s ability to provide premium service to premium customers Results showed at reduction of up to $235 million/year in costs with vessels Panama Canal scenario to USEC was not considered as that would increase the number of vessels required by a minimum of 10% to 20% The cascading effect further impacts over capacity and financial returns Advisian / 9
10 The Ports USSEC (ports south of Virginia) and USGC ports do not have the marine infrastructure required for larger vessels Dredge depth (min 50 ft.) Terminal size for surge Inland transportation network USSEC and USGC do not have the intermodal mentality USWC over 3,000 trains per week with strong domestic (53 ft.) USSEC trains per week with weak domestic, over 90% connects in Atlanta 7 USGC trains per week with medium domestic 7 Advisian / 10
11 The Ports- Georgia Ports Authority $128 million expansion of on-dock rail to target Memphis, Atlanta, Chicago, St. Louis and the Ohio Valley 10,000 ft. unit trains, complete by 2020 Current service to above area is 25 trains per week from all EC and GC ports, including Atlanta The project is taking aim at West Coast ports. Buffeted by labor productivity issues and capacity constraints, remain vulnerable to diversion, enable by the opening of the expanded Panama Canal * 4 berths at 48 ft.; 4 at 42 ft. *GPA s rail expansion project to take aim at West Coast port share, Lynch says ; DC Velocity Magazine article; Sept 19,2016 by Mark B Solomon Advisian / 11
12 The Ports- South Carolina Ports Authority Channel depth 47 ft. with soft mud bottom Handled first 8,500 teu vessel in July $1.3 Billion for 10 year capital expansion program w/new terminal and channel depth to 52 ft. for 10,000 to 14,000 teu vessel Projecting container growth at 6% based on Suez Canal growth from SE Asia and India Advisian / 12
13 The Terminal Operators Drewry s 2016 Global Container Operators Annual Review Perfect Storm Significant softening of demand growth Higher OpEx and CapEx due to larger vessels Increased Risks from large liner alliances Loss-making carriers pressuring for relief Lack of surge handling capability at majority, if not all, EC & Gulf ports Terminal Operators are not willing to invest in greenfield development Advisian / 13
14 The Transshipment Option West Coast Panamanian Transshipment terminals are full Buenaventura expects transshipment cargo to go from 50k Teus to over 500K teus Two new port/terminal complexes are being constructed in Colombia on Pacific Cuba Factor Buenaventura Advisian / 14
15 The Railroads Until this year, CSX and NS did not have doublestack clearance on key routes Heartland Corridor National Gateway Meriden Speedway Crescent Corridor Railroad s reconsolidate most trains in Atlanta for N-S traffic As of March 2016, CSX and NS did not have pricing for premium intermodal services Full unit train Direct to destination Location of IY s Advisian / 15
16 The Shippers BCO s want Reliability Time Cost IMF in July trimmed global growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 to 3.1% and 3.4% 1 IHS-Markit reduced their forecasts to less than 3% in August Estimated savings per TEU impacted by Panama Canal fees Suez Canal fees Rail fees Carrier financials BCO Distribution Strategy- if it isn t broke, don t try to fix it Advisian / 16
17 The Shippers NE Asia to Chicago Via PNW SoCal Gulf USSEC Marine 12 days 14 days 21 days 22 days Rail 4 days 4 days 4-6 days 3-6 days Total 16 days 18 days days days NE Asia to Memphis & Lower Mississippi Valley Via PNW SoCal Gulf USSEC Marine 12 days 14 days 21 days 22 days Rail 6 days 4 days 2-3 days 2-3 days Total 18 days 18 days days days Advisian / 17
18 The Bottom Line Most analysts do not see a shift of USWC cargo in next 5-10 years Carriers cannot afford to add vessels for all water route to USEC or Gulf (10%-20% increase in number of vessels) BNSF and UP pricing can easily shift market Suez Canal is picking up more Asia/Europe - USEC cargo Caribbean Transshipment ports are growing USEC/USGC ports, terminals and railroads are still in intermodal infancy Shipper s won t see savings in costs but will see increase in time Wait and see Advisian / 18
19 Questions or Comments? Contact Mike Zachary, Principal Consultant: (425)
20 DISCLAIMER This presentation has been prepared for the Puget Sound Regional Council s Freight Mobility Roundtable Meeting on October 7, 2016 The presentation contains the professional and personal opinions of the presenter, J Michael Zachary, which are given in good faith. As such, opinions presented herein may not always necessarily reflect the position of Advisian/WorleyParsons as a whole, its officers or executives. Any forward-looking statements included in this presentation will involve subjective judgment and analysis and are subject to uncertainties, risks and contingencies many of which are outside the control of, and may be unknown to, Advisian/WorleyParsons. Advisian/WorleyParsons and all associated entities and representatives make no representation or warranty as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of information in this document and do not take responsibility for updating any information or correcting any error or omission that may become apparent after this document has been issued. To the extent permitted by law, Advisian/WorleyParsons and its officers, employees, related bodies and agents disclaim all liability direct, indirect or consequential (and whether or not arising out of the negligence, default or lack of care of Advisian/WorleyParsons and/or any of its agents) for any loss or damage suffered by a recipient or other persons arising out of, or in connection with, any use or reliance on this presentation or information.
21 Advisian 20
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