Risk-based assessment techniques

Transcription

1 Crick Carleton Risk-based assessment techniques Nautilus Consultants Natural resource economists

2 Focus of discussions

3 Core issues Before getting into the differing merits of probability modelling, simulations and indices, let s remind ourselves of the intended outcomes of our efforts let s ground ourselves in the world of the practical to achieve real improvements in accessibility to sustainable fisheries Sustainable of fisheries is a reasonable objective and expectation for all whether or not fish are being sold into markets that are responsive to the benefits of certification For most fisheries whether in developed or developing countries data volume and quality remain issues, even for the most heavily researched fisheries

4 Key rationale to improve of fisheries Providing improved, and regularly updated, on stock condition / allows managers and fishermen to make more informed decisions, and to adapt harvest strategies to changed / changing conditions For most fish stocks or local fishing conditions it is not feasible to undertake stock assessments of the form and detail traditionally advocated by ICES and equivalents But there are a range of existing and emerging tools that could be used to describe stock condition, and allow for improvements in the of fisheries, for most if not all of these other fisheries What these tools are forms perhaps half of what we will talk about today; the other half is to identify to what extent these tools are likely to meet the requirements of a range of client types (including public recognition through certification and benchmarking)

5 Adaptive loop equivalent to MSC 1 the loop compare to reference points determine stock undertake actions as defined in HCR monitoring and agree strategy & HCR set reference points compare to reference points determine stock undertake actions as defined in HCR monitoring and stock assessment agree strategy & HCR initial periodic review monitoring and the starting point set reference points determine stock stock assessment the essential baseline

6 Prejudice against smallscale

7 The privileges of political and commercial scale Most clients want to employ best practice in the of their fisheries notably to maintain the health of the fish stock, but also to allow harvesting at a consistent and optimal level (for stock, costs and revenues) For the large commercially important stocks, stock assessment procedures are well established but there remain problems with the quality of data available, inconsistent use of reference points, and a low priority given to setting harvest strategies and harvest control rules But for many more (smaller scale) fisheries, the commercial / trans-boundary imperatives to undertake stock assessment have been less evident or absent, and assessments are either non-existent, or incomplete For most of these fisheries, up until recently stock assessment has not been a practical or cost-effective option Risk-based methodologies offer a way around this

8 Certification - does it matter? There is much talk about certification, and particularly its use in mobilising consumer power to encourage good practice This tends to focus on developed country consumers on supplies from local sources plus imports International trade is significant therefore certification can be a significant force for good, but tends to link through to systems that employ economies of scale, and well-organised supply systems and thus excludes small-scale production systems Small scale production systems provide income to more fishermen and more fishermen s households than all larger scale systems; they also provide food / essential protein to more people than larger scale systems There are therefore considerations of equity, poverty alleviation and socio-economics to the inclusion of small-scale and data-poor fisheries into certification

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10 Issues associated with certification

11 Small-scale / traditional systems don t meet grade Consumer behaviour and CSR concerns in the supply chain are having considerable impact with regard to certification and traffic light listings But many small-scale production systems primarily associated with inshore fisheries are largely excluded from these certification schemes (stock is not recorded), or come out badly in traffic light listings (little relevant ) The reasons behind this are various: there is little documentation of and practice infrastructure is poor traditional systems have not kept up with the times research resources have been focused on the large trans-national stocks until recently stocks were under-exploited, and so was not such a priority issue

12 Standards are restrictive, but can be over restrictive The components of the MSC standard (the s and Criteria) provide a good template for certification and listings standards The vast majority of P2 bycatch and habitat / ecosystem impacts are addressed through conventional measurement or using the MSC Risk-Based Framework for P2 (based on the Australian / Hobday work) Use of the MSC Risk-Based Framework for P1 is more controversial it can be reasonably argued that it can only be applied to lightly exploited fisheries, and even these would be required to undertake conventional stock assessment during the period of validity of the certificate Most other existing standards would mark down or disqualify fisheries where no stock assessment existed, though many would not be as critical as the MSC standard with respect to use of reference points, harvest strategy and harvest control rules In a similar vein, stock assessment scientists are uncomfortable giving advice on fishery, but for small-scale and/or lightly researched stocks / fisheries, they may be in the best position to provide such advice

13 Standard MSC assessment tree need three greens at level to pass 1 1 Species Species / / stock stock Environment Environment 3 3 Fishery Fishery retained catch retained catch ETP ETP ecosystem ecosystem governance & governance & policy policy fish. specific fish. specific mngt system mngt system reference reference points points stock stock performance of performance of harvest strategy harvest strategy harvest control harvest control rule(s) & tools rule(s) & tools 90 legal / legal / customery customery framework framework consultation, consultation, roles & roles & responsibilities responsibilities fishery specific fishery specific objectives objectives decisionmaking decisionmaking processes processes recovery & recovery & rebuilding rebuilding assessment assessment bycatch bycatch habitat habitat long-term long-term objectives & objectives & precaution precaution compliance & compliance & enforcement enforcement / / monitoring monitoring well above 80 threshold at or above 80 threshold slightly below 80 threshold well below 80 threshold below 60 automatic fail incentives incentives research plan research plan monitoring & monitoring & evaluation evaluation

14 Meeting client requirements

15 Range of client types Situation where government is committed to sustainable but does not have the capacity to undertake stock assessments e.g. The Gambia artisanal sole fishery Stocks where there is commercial sector interest to progress sustainable, but cannot rely on government capacity to take the matter forward e.g. the Suriname seabob fishery Small-scale fisheries where there is next to no documentary record of the fishery, and no history of research on the fishery, but where the fishery is considered to be well-managed e.g. The Gambia artisanal sole fishery Small-scale multi-species, multi-gear fisheries where any thought of stock assessment is dismissed on the basis of complexity e.g. a typical reef fishery or inshore trawl fishery Shellfish fisheries where size cannot be used as a surrogate for age e.g. brown crab fisheries A situation where a small fishery (relative to overall stock) is operating responsibly, but the actions of others compromises stock the client can control local activity, but not that of others e.g. Sussex Sea Fishery Committee, St Helena tuna fisheries, Cornwall sardine fishery

16 Examples

17 Standard assessment tree deals with a biological stock or a managed sub-component 1 1 Species Species / / stock stock 3 3 Fishery Fishery governance & governance & policy policy fish. specific fish. specific mngt system mngt system Environment Environment retained catch retained catch ETP ETP ecosystem ecosystem bycatch bycatch habitat habitat deal with the fishery under assessment

18 1 1 Species Species / / stock stock Environment Environment 3 3 Fishery Fishery retained catch retained catch ETP ETP ecosystem ecosystem governance & governance & policy policy fish. specific fish. specific mngt system mngt system stock stock reference reference points points performance of performance of harvest strategy harvest strategy harvest control harvest control rule(s) & tools rule(s) & tools 90 legal / legal / customary customary framework framework consultation, consultation, roles & roles & responsibilities responsibilities fishery specific fishery specific objectives objectives decisionmaking decisionmaking processes processes recovery & recovery & rebuilding rebuilding assessment assessment bycatch bycatch habitat habitat long-term long-term objectives & objectives & precaution precaution compliance & compliance & enforcement enforcement / / monitoring monitoring well above 80 threshold at or above 80 threshold slightly below 80 threshold well below 80 threshold below 60 automatic fail incentives incentives research plan research plan monitoring & monitoring & evaluation evaluation

19 P1.1 stock condition P2.1 retained catch P2.3 P2.5 ETP ecosystem interactions impacts P3.2 system P1.2 harvest strategy P2.2 discarded catch P2.4 habitat impacts P3.1 fishery policy

20 The Fisheries selected pre-assessment (16 species, and 26 fisheries in all)

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22 Crick Carleton Thank You Nautilus Consultants Natural resource economists

23 Moving to flexible adaptive regimes One major reason for this is that they tend to be managed through more traditional systems (wise men, rule of thumb, consensus) which, when the fisheries were only lightly exploited, worked pretty well But as fisheries have become more heavily exploited, and technological change and access to the market economy provide both the means and the incentive to over-exploit, these more traditional, slower moving, systems have been less able to control or moderate these excesses What is needed is a more adaptive regime where decisions are made on the basis of current stock Risk-based approaches to stock assessment can yield this sort of at an appropriate level of detail, using techniques that managers can have confidence in, and at low cost and delivered in a relatively short period of time Such can form the basis of a practical adaptive regime