Changing Dynamics The Utica Shale Gas Play Platts - Pipeline Development and Expansion Conference

Transcription

1 Changing Dynamics The Utica Shale Gas Play Platts - Pipeline Development and Expansion Conference Richard Vaughan TransCanada US Pipelines Central Director, Business Development September 21, 2012

2 Forward-Looking Information This presentation contains certain information that is forward looking and is subject to important risks and uncertainties. The words "anticipate", "expect", "believe", "may", "will", "should", "estimate", "project", "outlook", "forecast", "intend", "target", "plan" or other similar words are used to identify such forward-looking information. Forward-looking statements in this presentation are intended to provide TransCanada security holders and potential investors with information regarding TransCanada and its subsidiaries, including management s assessment of TransCanada s and its subsidiaries future plans and financial outlook. Forward-looking statements in this presentation may include, but are not limited to, statements regarding anticipated business prospects; financial performance of TransCanada and its subsidiaries and affiliates; expectations or projections about strategies and goals for growth and expansion; expected cash flows; expected costs; expected costs for projects under construction; expected schedules for planned projects (including anticipated construction and completion dates); expected regulatory processes and outcomes; expected outcomes with respect to legal proceedings, including arbitration; expected capital expenditures; expected operating and financial results; and expected impact of future commitments and contingent liabilities. These forward-looking statements reflect TransCanada's beliefs and assumptions based on information available at the time the statements were made and as such are not guarantees of future performance. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to various assumptions, risks and uncertainties which could cause TransCanada's actual results and achievements to differ materially from the anticipated results or expectations expressed or implied in such statements. Key assumptions on which TransCanada s forward-looking statements are based include, but are not limited to, assumptions about inflation rates, commodity prices and capacity prices; timing of debt issuances and hedging; regulatory decisions and outcomes; arbitration decisions and outcomes; foreign exchange rates; interest rates; tax rates; planned and unplanned outages and utilization of the Company s pipeline and energy assets; asset reliability and integrity; access to capital markets; anticipated construction costs, schedules and completion dates; and acquisitions and divestitures. The risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially from current expectations include, but are not limited to the ability of TransCanada to successfully implement its strategic initiatives and whether such strategic initiatives will yield the expected benefits; the operating performance of the Company's pipeline and energy assets; the availability and price of energy commodities; amount of capacity payments and revenues from the Company s energy business; regulatory decisions and outcomes; outcomes with respect to legal proceedings, including arbitration; counterparty performance; changes in environmental and other laws and regulations; competitive factors in the pipeline and energy sectors; construction and completion of capital projects; labour, equipment and material costs; access to capital markets; interest and currency exchange rates; weather; technological developments; and economic conditions in North America. Additional information on these and other factors is available in the reports filed by TransCanada with Canadian securities regulators and with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Readers are cautioned against placing undue reliance on forward-looking information, which is given as of the date it is expressed in this presentation or otherwise stated, and not to use future-oriented information or financial outlooks for anything other than their intended purpose. TransCanada undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking information in this presentation or otherwise stated, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. 2

3 Leading North American Energy Infrastructure Company One of the Largest Natural Gas Pipeline Networks 68,500 km (42,500 mi) of pipeline Average volume of 14 Bcf/d or 20% of continental demand Third Largest Natural Gas Storage Operator 380 Bcf of capacity Largest Private Sector Power Generator in Canada 20 power plants, 10,900 MW Premier Oil Pipeline System 1.4 million bbl/d ultimate capacity Enterprise Value ~ $55 billion 3

4 TransCanada U.S. Pipelines Managed in Houston 15,939 miles of operated gas pipelines 15.8 Bcf/day of capacity 10.4 Bcf/d average volume 250 Bcf regulated natural gas storage Asset History GTN and N Baja acquired 2004 N. Border-operator 2007 ANR acquired 2007 GLGT majority owner 2007 Bison in-service

5 Today s Topics for Discussion Supply/Demand The TransCanada View Effects on gas pipeline flows Closer to home: Our pipeline project activities around Utica Shale 5

6 Lower 48 Rig Location 08/20/12 1,746 Rigs Source: DrillingInfo (HPDI) 6

7 North American Supply History Forecast LNG/Other WCSB Unconventional Bcf/d WCSB Conventional Eastern U.S. Rockies/San Juan Permian/Anadarko Big Four Shales Onshore Gulf Gulf of Mexico Mexico Source: TransCanada Spring 2012 Outlook 7

8 Key Factor: Shale Supply 60 History Forecast Bcf/d Cordova/Duvernay Horn River Montney Utica Marcellus Eagleford Haynesville Fayetteville Woodford Barnett Western Canada Appalachia Gulf Coast/ Mid-continent Source: TransCanada Spring 2012 Outlook Shale supply growth AND geography influence flow pattern changes 8

9 North American Demand Balance 120 History Forecast 100 LNG Exports Bcf/d Electric Generation Industrial Commercial Residential 0 Pipe/Plant Fuel Source: TransCanada Spring 2012 Outlook 9

10 NA Regional Supply Demand Balance Legend Supply Demand Western Canada Eastern Canada Export (-) Import (+) Rocky Mtn & Great Plains Midwest Ohio Valley & Northeast U.S. Western U.S. Gulf Coast & Midcontinent Southeast U.S Mexico Source: TransCanada Spring 2012 Outlook Midwest market demand supplied from other regions 10

11 Key Drivers for North American Transport Grid Flows Wildcard LNG exports WCSB WCSB Supply/ Demand Supply trend, oil sands demand Marcellus and Utica Impact on regional imports/exports Supply Competition WCSB versus Rockies Marcellus Utica Rockies & San Juan Gulf Coast, Mid-continent shale and associated gas supply growth Exports into Mexico Gas fired power generation Power Generation Coal to gas switching in near term, EPA driven demand in longer term Wildcard How many export projects in the Gulf? Traditional transportation giving way to shorter hauls, backhauls, flexible routing, shorter term contracts 11

12 Traditional Natural Gas Transportation Flow Pattern WCSB Rockies LNG Imports San Juan Permian Midcontinent Gulf Coast LNG Imports Offshore Gulf of Mexico LNG Imports 12

13 Impact of Shale Gas Supply and New Pipeline Infrastructure LNG Exports WCSB Bakken Rockies Utica Marcellus LNG Imports Granite Wash Fayetteville Woodford Barnett Eagle Ford LNG Imports/Exports Offshore Gulf of Mexico LNG Imports 13

14 TransCanada Adapts to Changing Dynamics TransCanada Initiatives WCSB Supply Connections to LNG Export Market GTN Bi-Directional at Malin Northern Border Access to Bakken Production Canadian Mainline Connection to Marcellus Supplies Lebanon Lateral project accessing Utica Shale 14

15 Lebanon Area Map ANR Lebanon Lateral Project Dominion Texas Eastern LEBANON Receipt Point 15

16 Utica Forecast (Gas) MMcf/d OOGEEP 09/2011 TC Spring 2012 Outlook Pipeline A 03/2012 Consultant A Consultant B 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,

17 Marcellus/Utica Production Forecast & Basis $ $ $ Basis $0.10 $ Bcf/d ($0.10) -5 ($0.20) -10 ($0.30) Marcellus Utica Dom Southpoint TCO App Sources: Platts (Basis Data), TransCanada Spring 2012 Outlook (Production Forecast) 17

18 Greenfield vs. Existing Infrastructure Greenfield Projects Capital Intensive Significant shipper commitments required (term) Longer in-service lead times Regulatory, cost, and construction schedule risk Utilization of Existing Infrastructure at Lebanon Efficient solution to producer flow assurance/liquidity concerns Minor capital requirements No long term contract commitments Significantly reduced regulatory, cost, or construction schedule risk 18

19 ANR s Lebanon Lateral Reversal Project Project Overview Scope Minor modifications to Lebanon Lateral to allow bi-directional flow Receipts at Lebanon between 350, ,000 Dth/d Deliveries at points along ANR s System, both north and south Rates No incremental Lateral charges Existing ANR FERC Gas Tariff rates will be charged Lebanon Receipts will be in ANR s ML-3 (Southeast Central) Tariff Zone 19

20 ANR s Lebanon Lateral Reversal Project Open Season Results Non-binding Open Season held May 21-June 22, Open Season bidders 5 Year Minimum contract term Open season responses received in excess of 620,000 Dth/d New parties have expressed interest since close of open season. Targeted In-service Currently April 1, 2013, subject to entering into supporting PAs 20

21 Questions? Richard Vaughan Thank you! 21