Published 3Q Dave Hurst Industry Analyst. Clint Wheelock Managing Director

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1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Plug-in Electric Vehicles Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles: OEM Strategies, Demand Drivers, Technology Issues, Key Industry Players, and Global Market Forecasts Published 3Q 2010 NOTE: This document is a free excerpt of a larger research report. If you are interested in purchasing the full report, please contact Pike Research at sales@pikeresearch.com Dave Hurst Industry Analyst Clint Wheelock Managing Director

2 Section 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Plug-in vehicles are being launched in two different forms: Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs). Both types of plug-ins offer many advantages over traditional non-electrified vehicles, including improved fuel economy or no petroleum based fuel usage, lower or zero emissions while driving, and a quieter ride. PHEVs are similar to current hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), but provide the additional benefit of allowing owners to plug the vehicle into the electric grid to recharge the batteries. In both BEVs and PHEVs, stored energy in the batteries provides power to an electric motor that motivates the vehicle. PHEVs deplete the batteries before the internal combustion engine (ICE) starts. The ICE may provide power to the wheels or just recharge the battery so the electric motor can continue to provide traction. In contrast, HEV batteries are recharged solely through regenerative braking and/or the ICE. BEV batteries are charged solely from connecting to the grid and do not have an ICE onboard the vehicle. PHEVs have received a great deal of media attention within the last year due to the forthcoming launches of several high-profile vehicles. However, the concept of the PHEV is not actually new; for years, HEV owners have been converting their vehicles to plug into the electric grid, with the increasing number of conversions coinciding with the availability of less expensive lithium-ion batteries, which provide higher power density at a lower weight than other technologies. There are essentially three types of electrified vehicles that will play an increasingly important role in the marketplace: HEVs have been in the market for more than 10 years and a significant number of vehicles have been sold globally PHEVs offer increased electric driving range over HEVs and are expected be priced higher than HEVs BEVs do not require petroleum fuel because they plug into the electric grid for all their energy, but have about one-third to one-half the range of PHEVs While Pike Research expects that sales of PHEVs and BEVs will be strong 107% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) and 106% CAGR, respectively, between 2010 and 2015 we also forecast that the HEV market will grow extensively. Traditional hybrid models are expected to remain important in the next several years as OEMs look to the technology as a tool to meet increasingly tight fuel economy and emissions regulations without adding substantial cost to the vehicle. In fact, we expect growth to be 12.7% CAGR between 2010 and 2015 (compared to 4.8% CAGR for the overall light-duty vehicle market). 1

3 Chart 1.1 Total Electrified Vehicle Sales, World Markets: ,500,000 Vehicles 1,200, , ,000 Global HEV Sales Global PHEV Sales Global BEV Sales 300, (Source: Pike Research) HEVs have been introduced in almost every market segment to varying degrees of success. PHEVs will follow HEVs lead and will be launched in passenger cars initially, followed closely by the small SUV segment. The main reason for the focus on these segments is twofold: 1) smaller vehicles are more efficient to better extend the electrically powered driving range; and 2) the crossover and small SUV segment is very popular among consumers. BEVs will be initially focused on small cars, because the smaller, more efficient vehicles also can allow use of a smaller, less expensive battery and still have enough energy to move the vehicle. PHEVs come in two designs: the parallel hybrid and the series hybrid (or extended range electric vehicle). While parallel hybrids allow the ICE to provide power to the vehicle s wheels, a series hybrid has no mechanical connection between the ICE and the wheels. Regardless of design, PHEVs operate in electric mode until the batteries reach a certain level of depletion (typically between 10 and 40 miles). Once that occurs, an ICE maintains the batteries state of charge. Batteries are among the most expensive components in PHEVs and BEVs. The technology for transportation batteries has focused on lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries, which offer good power density (300 W/kg to 1,500 W/kg) and high nominal voltage (3V to 4V). Other battery chemistries such as lead acid and nickel metal hydride cannot match the weight-to-power ratio of Li-ion. However, Li-ion is also a more expensive technology, with battery pack costs ranging from $175 to $500/mile of EV driving (depending on vehicle design and battery size). Given that the consumer market ultimately determines the success of a vehicle or vehicle type, marketers are conducting a great deal of consumer research in preparation for the launch of PHEVs. Some research shows that U.S. consumers are still wary about high up-front costs for vehicles, regardless of savings on fuel. Because of this, government incentives will continue to play an important role in the consumer marketplace for several 2

4 years. Many consumers may ultimately choose a plug-in vehicle that is aligned with a brand they already trust. Toyota and Honda are likely to benefit from their established positions in the HEV market; however, GM s early entry into the market is expected to help bolster its initial PHEV sales (by 2015, GM is anticipated to have 20% global PHEV market share). We expect that the 107% CAGR for the PHEV market will result in global sales of 472,612 vehicles in Pike Research anticipates that the United States will lead in terms of volume, with 204,110 PHEVs sold in 2015 followed distantly by Japan with 62,143. While China s government has been very supportive of PHEVs, Pike Research anticipates that BEVs will steal some of the volume in that country. In fact, sales of BEVs in China are expected to reach 262,203 vehicles in 2015 (compared to 47,982 PHEVs) thanks to strong government support for both battery manufacturers and automakers as well as a population that is familiar with both small vehicles and vehicles that need to be plugged in (electric bicycles and motorcycles). Combined, BEVs and PHEVs will result in a fast-growing marketplace: we forecast that vehicles that plug into the grid (BEV and PHEV) will reach just over 1 million in five years (1,081,294 vehicles in 2015), with PHEVs accounting for 44% of that amount. Chart 1.2 Annual Plug-in Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Vehicles 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Africa/Middle East Asia Pacific Eastern Europe Western Europe Latin America North America (Source: Pike Research) 3

5 Section 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Executive Summary... 1 Section Market Issues History Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Passenger Cars Light Trucks Conversion of Hybrids to Plug-in Vehicles Battery Electric Vehicles Passenger Cars Light Trucks Section Technology Issues Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Drivetrains Parallel Hybrid Design Series Hybrid Design/Extended Range Electric Vehicle Battery Electric Vehicle Drivetrains Battery Technology Lithium Ion Battery Chemistry Lithium Titanate Batteries Safety Concerns Advanced Battery Chemistry Lithium Air Lithium Sulfur Ultracapacitors Regenerative Braking Recharging Infrastructure Charging Equipment Smart Meter Technologies for the Home Recharging Habits and Public Recharging Section Demand Drivers Market-Based Demand Energy Costs and Gas/Diesel Prices Consumer Preference Impact of Alternative Fuel Vehicles on Plug-in Vehicles Government Emissions Regulations United States CAFE Standards California Air Resources Board Canada Mexico Europe Japan China Government Incentives

6 4.4.1 United States Canada Latin America Europe Japan China Other Regulatory Incentives Section Key Industry Players Original Equipment Manufacturers BMW/Mini BYD Chery Daimler Ford Motor Co Fiat/Chrysler General Motors Honda Hyundai/Kia Mitsubishi Nissan/Renault PSA Peugeot/Citroen Toyota Motor Corp Volkswagen/Audi New Manufacturers/Converters ALTe Bright Automotive CODA Automotive Detroit Electric Fisker Automotive Tesla Motors Key Suppliers A123 Systems AeroVironment Better Place Clipper Creek Coulomb Technologies Dow Kokam Inc EnergyCS (Battery Management Systems) GS Yuasa LG Chemical/Compact Power Panasonic EV Energy Ricardo SB LiMotive Siemens UQM Technologies Valence Technology ZF Friedrichshafen AG Section Market Forecasts Global Vehicle Sales and Production Forecast: Hybrid Vehicle Forecast: Global Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle Forecast:

7 6.4 Global Battery Electric Vehicle Forecast: Selected OEM Market Share: Selected OEMs Plug-in Vehicle Market Share Forecast in the U.S.: U.S. Plug-in Vehicle Sales Forecast by Vehicle Segment: Summary and Conclusions Section Company Directory Section Acronym and Abbreviation List Section Table of Contents Section Table of Charts and Figures Section Scope of Study Sources and Methodology Notes

8 Section 10 TABLE OF CHARTS AND FIGURES Chart 1.1 Total Electrified Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 1.2 Annual Plug-in Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 2.1 PHEV Sales by Segment, United States: Chart 2.2 Mix of New Passenger Car and Light Truck Sales by Model Year: Chart 2.3 BEV Sales by Segment, United States: Chart 4.1 Overall Estimated Ownership Costs During Vehicle Lifetime Chart 4.2 Consumer Consideration of Vehicle Alternative Engine Technology Chart 4.3 Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: Chart 4.4 Consumer Brand Preference for Purchasing BEVs Chart 6.1 Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.2 Annual Total Light-Duty Vehicle Production, by Region, World Markets: Chart 6.3 Annual Total Light Duty Vehicle Production, World Markets: Chart 6.4 Annual HEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.5 Annual PHEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.6 Annual BEV Light Duty Vehicle Sales, World Markets: Chart 6.7 Global Market Share for Selected Vehicle Manufacturers: 2010, Chart 6.8 Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Selected Vehicle Manufacturers, United States: Chart 6.9 Comparison of Plug-in Vehicle Market Share in U.S. and World Markets: Chart 6.10 Plug-in Vehicle Sales by Selected Manufacturers, World Markets: Chart 6.11 PHEV Sales by Vehicle Segment, United States: Chart 6.12 BEV Sales by Vehicle Segment, United States: Table 2.1 Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, North America: Table 2.2 Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Asia Pacific: Table 2.3 Planned HEV/PHEV/BEV Launches, Europe: Figure 3.1 Typical State of Charge for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Figure 3.2 Series and Parallel Hybrid Drivetrains Diagram Figure 3.3 BEV Drivetrain Diagram Figure 4.1 Comparison of Energy Cost per Mile between Electric and Gas Vehicles Figure 4.2 Typical Residential Electricity Costs for Electric Vehicle Figure 4.3 Purchase Probability Among All Vehicle Owning Households

9 Section 11 SCOPE OF STUDY Pike Research has prepared this report to provide participants at all levels of the plug-in electric vehicle markets, including vehicle OEMs, suppliers, and battery manufacturers, with a study of the market for PHEV and BEV technologies. This study s major objective is to determine the state of the industry and likely future growth of plug-in hybrid vehicles in the overall consumer automobile market. The report also provides a review of major demand drivers as well as key industry players within the competitive landscape. The report s purpose is not to provide an exhaustive technical assessment of the technologies and vehicles covered, but rather a strategic examination from an overall tactical business perspective. Pike Research strives to identify and examine new market segments to aid readers in the development of their business models. All major global regions are included. The forecast period extends through SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY Pike Research s industry analysts utilize a variety of research sources in preparing Research Reports. The key component of Pike Research s analysis is primary research gained from phone and in-person interviews with industry leaders including executives, engineers, and marketing professionals. Analysts are diligent in ensuring that they speak with representatives from every part of the value chain, including but not limited to technology companies, utilities and other service providers, industry associations, government agencies, and the investment community. Additional analysis includes secondary research conducted by Pike Research s analysts and the firm s staff of research assistants. Where applicable, all secondary research sources are appropriately cited within this report. These primary and secondary research sources, combined with the analyst s industry expertise, are synthesized into the qualitative and quantitative analysis presented in Pike Research s reports. Great care is taken in making sure that all analysis is well-supported by facts, but where the facts are unknown and assumptions must be made, analysts document their assumptions and are prepared to explain their methodology, both within the body of a report and in direct conversations with clients. Pike Research is an independent market research firm whose goal is to present an objective, unbiased view of market opportunities within its coverage areas. The firm is not beholden to any special interests and is thus able to offer clear, actionable advice to help clients succeed in the industry, unfettered by technology hype, political agendas, or emotional factors that are inherent in cleantech markets. 71

10 NOTES CAGR refers to compound average annual growth rate, using the formula: CAGR = (End Year Value Start Year Value) (1/steps) 1. CAGRs presented in the tables are for the entire timeframe in the title. Where data for fewer years are given, the CAGR is for the range presented. Where relevant, CAGRs for shorter timeframes may be given as well. Figures are based on the best estimates available at the time of calculation. Annual revenues, shipments, and sales are based on end-of-year figures unless otherwise noted. All values are expressed in year 2010 U.S. dollars unless otherwise noted. Percentages may not add up to 100 due to rounding. 72

11 Published 3Q Pike Research LLC 1320 Pearl Street, Suite 300 Boulder, CO USA Tel: This publication is provided by Pike Research LLC ( Pike ). This publication may be used only as expressly permitted by license from Pike and may not otherwise be reproduced, recorded, photocopied, distributed, displayed, modified, extracted, accessed or used without the express written permission of Pike. Notwithstanding the foregoing, Pike makes no claim to any government data and other data obtained from public sources found in this publication (whether or not the owners of such data are noted in this publication). If you do not have a license from Pike covering this publication, please refrain from accessing or using this publication. Please contact Pike to obtain a license to this publication. 73