The AGCOM Research Program on Ultra Broad Band Infrastructures and Services (ISBUL) & Italian NGAN plans

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1 The AGCOM Research Program on Ultra Broad Band Infrastructures and Services (ISBUL) & Italian NGAN plans Fulvio Ananasso Director of Studies, Research & Education OECD ICCP / CISP, 6th December /24

2 Presentation Outline 1. The ISBUL Program 2. ISBUL main results 3. Italian NGAN plans 2/24

3 Presentation Outline 1. The ISBUL Program 2. ISBUL main results 3. Italian NGAN plans 3/24

4 The AGCOM Research Programs The ISBUL Research Program ( ) addressed juridical, technological and economic aspects of Infrastructures and Services for Broadband and Ultra-Broadband Networks ISBUL has been carried out by AGCOM in collaboration with several Italian Universities: - Milan (Bocconi and Polytechnic) - Naples (Federico II) - Rome (LUISS, Roma Tre, Sapienza e Tor Vergata) - Siena - Polytechnic of Turin - Imperial College (London) The SCREEN Research Program (2011) subject to approval by AGCOM Council - will focus on Services and Contents for Next Generation Networks 4/24

5 AGCOM Research Program Ultra BroadBand Infrastructures & Services (ISBUL) Objective: paving the road to AGCOM permanent presidium on technological, juridical, economic, aspects in Ultra Broad Band Next Generation Access Network infrastructures (UBB - NGAN): Fiber To The x (FTTx) Access in NGAN Development Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) Digital Dividend Radio Spectrum below 3.5 GHz Net Neutrality & Telecommunications Infrastructures Security Audiovisual & Media Contents Normative Aspects / Civil Works / Ducts & Infrastructures Sharing Economic Aspects, Business Planning and Financing Options Public Private Partnership (PPP) Investments Impact of Regulation on Economy;. 5/24

6 ISBUL Program Work Breakdown Structure 6/30

7 Key Strategic Themes (most relevant s involved) Key Themes Work Packages PROJECT 1. Infrastructural & Technical Framework PROJECT 2. Economic & Regulatory Framework PROJECT 3. Juridical & Normative Framework Effective Investment Promotion & Risk Sharing Ladder of investment & New Access Models Transition to NGA Digital divide Digital spectrum dividend 7/24

8 Copper-vs vs-fiber Optics Curb xdsl: xdigital Subscriber Line Home NT: Network Termination OLT: Optical Line Termination Local Exchange Cabinet Building copper ONU: Optical Network Unit UNI: User Network Interface UNI OLT NT FTTEx ADSL OLT ONU NT FTTCab ADSL/VDSL OLT ONU NT FTTC/ FTTB VDSL OLT fiber NT ONU FTTH 8/24

9 Capital & Operating Expenditures (CapEx / OpEx) CapEx: substantially (60%-80%) civil works costs home passed / connected OpEx: NTT / Verizon: 40-60% OpEx decrease with FTTH networks w.r.t. copper local loop 9/24

10 Aerial Access Network (Japan) 10/24

11 Metropolitan Network (optical fiber) SGU / SL OLT ODF Exchange DF Distribution Frame GPON Gigabit Passive Optical Network ODF Optical Distribution Frame OLT Optical Line Termination ONT Optical Network termination P2P Point to Point SDF Subloop Distribution Frame Metropolitan Network (optical fiber) FTTH P2P-vs vs-gpon primary optical fiber access network - FTTH P2P (single fiber per home) to Home SGU / SL OLT ODF Exchange SDF Cabinet secondary optical fiber access network FTTH GPON (single fiber per many homes) primary optical fiber access network - to Home to other Buildings splitter SDF SDF horizontal vertical DF DF manhole indoor adduction secondary optical fiber access network SDF Home ONT floor N floor 0 DF horizontal vertical Home ONT floor N DF to other Homes splitter indoor adduction manhole 11/24

12 Infrastructure sharing - WDM OLT OLO 1 OLO 2 OLO n Local Loop Unbundling Wavelength (λ)division Multiplexing (WDM) approach λ 1, λ n+1 λ 2, λ n+2 λ n, λ 2n WDM Switch n:1 λ 1, λ 2,..., λ n λ n+1, λ n+2,..., λ 2n Passive Splitter 1:m λ 1, λ 2,..., λ 2n OLT Optical Line Termination ONT Optical Network Termination OLO Other Licensed Operator λ 1, λ 2,..., λ 2n ONT... λ 1, λ n+1 λ 2, λ n+2 λ 2, λ n+2 λ 3, λ n+3 λ n, λ 2n Ethernet speed on a single colour: 1, 10, 40 or 100 Gbit/s coarse WDM: up to 18 colours dense WDM: up to 162 colours 12/30

13 Presentation Outline 1. The ISBUL Program 2. ISBUL main results 3. Italian NGAN plans 13/24

14 Expected coverage evolution Optical fiber -- primary areas 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mb/s Popolazione Area Gradual spreading of ADSL2+ and VDSL intermediate areas digital divide reduction Mbps areas from copper to fiber + copper 14/30

15 Investments FTTH / P2P & FTTH / GPON per line Source: ISBUL 2.2 NGN Financing Options FTTH / P2P FTTH / GPON Copertura 20% Parte attiva centrale: 20 Infrastruttura passiva: 390 Parte attiva* cliente: 140 total CapEx per line with FTTH / P2P : 20% coverage: 727 euros 50% coverage: 1,027 euros 50% Parte attiva centrale: 20 Infrastruttura passiva: 606 total CapEx per line with FTTH / GPON : 20% coverage: 550 euros 50% coverage: 766 euros Parte attiva* cliente: 140 * Comprende l installazione FTTH / P2P: better combination architecture / access technology

16 NGAN economics (Italy) Italy: ~60 million population; ~27 million fixed lines UBB coverage options: 20% (~5.5 m lines), 50% (~13,5 m lines) UBB lines take up rate: from ~40% to % in 10 years Network architecture options: FTTB, FTTH Access technology options: GPON, P2P total replacement copper network value (5-to-15 b ) WACC 5-to-8% NGN CapEx % coverage (750 1,000 / UBB line) P2P costs from ~10% (FTTB) to ~35% (FTTH) higher than GPON NGN access fee / required ARPU to break even -- higher than with conventional lines Source: ISBUL 2.2 NGN Financing Options 16/24

17 NGN impact on domestic economy Population Population Cost Cost Total Total effects effects multiplier multiplier equivalent equivalent Covered Covered Architecture Architecture billion billion New New jobs jobs ( ( bill.) bill.) (total (total eff./cost) eff./cost) GDP GDP increase increase % min min max max min min max max min min max max 91% 91% mixed mixed P2P P2P // GPON GPON 15,5 15, ,9 109,9 785,8 785,8 7,1 7,1 50,7 50,7 0,7 0,7 5,1 5,1 50% 50% FTTH FTTH P2P P2P 13,3 13, ,6 66,6 438,0 438,0 5,0 5,0 32,9 32,9 0,4 0,4 2,9 2,9 20% 20% FTTB FTTB GPON GPON 3,0 3, ,6 23,6 172,1 172,1 7,9 7,9 57,4 57,4 0,2 0,2 1,1 1,1 Source: ISBUL 2.4 NGN Investments Impact on Country Economic Development 17/24

18 GIS for Inventory Mapping 18/24

19 Presentation Outline 1. The ISBUL Program 2. ISBUL main results 3. Italian NGAN plans 19/24

20 6 cities by 2010 (34 local exchange / central office areas, home passed, FTTH Gbps up / down): Milano, Roma, Catania (18 central office areas, home passed) Bari, Torino, Vicenza (34 central office areas, home passed) Milano & Roma: HSPA 21 Mbps 3 more cities by 2011 (52 central office areas, home passed, FTTH Gbps up / down) : Bologna, Genova, Napoli 4 more cities by 2012 (81 central office areas, home passed, FTTH Gbps up / down): Firenze, Palermo, Padova, Verona TOTAL 2012 (~ 7B investment): 13 cities connected; 81 central office areas; home passed (FTTH) Telecom Italia plan (1/2) F.Ananasso Wireless Business Forum - Milano, 22 Aprile /30

21 ~ 20 more cities by 2013 (FTTC / VDSL2, Mbps down / 5 20 Mbps up). TOTAL 2013: 30+ cities connected; 180+ central office areas; home passed (~ FTTC, ~ FTTH) ~20 more cities by 2015 (FTTC / VDSL2, Mbps down / 5 20 Mbps up). TOTAL 2018: 138+ cities connected; 50% population 100 Mbps; 15-25% population FTTH 20-30% population FTTC Broadband wireless widely utilized Telecom Italia plan (2/2) F.Ananasso Wireless Business Forum - Milano, 22 Aprile 2010

22 Vodafone 1,000 municipalities ~ 1 billion investment ( ) 1 municipality (digital divide areas) per day ~7 % population ~ 2 Mbps wireless -- HSPA+ and LTE ( ) Fastweb ~ 5 billion invested 31,000 km deployed fiber 7 cities -- Milan, Rome, Genova, Turin, Bologna, Naples, Bari > 2 million home passed 100 Mbps OLOs

23 OPTION 1: 15 major cities (~10 million inhabitants) by 5 years Milano, Torino, Genova, Brescia, Verona, Padova, Venezia, Trieste, Bologna, Firenze, Roma, Napoli, Bari, Catania, Palermo; ~ 2.5 billion CapEx 800 million equity (OLO, CDP, TI) million debt; OPTION 2: FIBRA PER L ITALIAL (Fastweb, Vodafone Italia, Wind, Tiscali) 500 major municipalities (~30 million inhabitants or ~50% population) by 5-10 years; ~ 8.5 billion CapEx 2.5 billion equity (OLO, CDP, TI) + 6 billion debt; 23/24

24 Other NGAN projects in Italy Lombardy ( ) FTTH 167 municipalities excluding Milan 4.2 million inhabitants Bespoke plans underway in several italian regions -- Trentino, Friuli, Tuscany, Sardinia, Puglia Project Fibra Ottica S.p.A. Joint Venture set up by 13 medium size operators mostly ISPs in the framework of Italian Association of Internet Providers (AIIP) - to contribute to national investments in NGAN infrastructures 24/24

25 Thank you for your attention ISBUL Report (italian) enuto&dcid=416 Extended Summary (english) to be posted soon on the website

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