Transportation and Climate Change: Causes and Consequences

Transcription

1 Transportation and Climate Change: Causes and Consequences NARC s 43rd Annual Conference June 1, 2009 Denver, CO Kathy Daniel Federal Highway Administration (FHWA)

2 True or False? 1. The U.S. gets 85% of its total energy from fossil fuels. TRUE 2. The U.S. imports 60% of the oil it consumes. TRUE 3. National and international climate change experts have concluded that by 2050, GHGs need to be decreased by 25%. FALSE, GHGs need to be decreased by 60-80% or more 4. Under a cap-and-trade program, allowances for carbon emissions would be allocated by the government, possibly through an auction. 2 TRUE

3 True or False? 5. Average temperatures are expected to remain constant in the coming decades, before increasing after FALSE. Temperatures have already risen 1.4 F since the start of the 21st Century with much of this warming occurring in just the last 30 years. Under almost any scenario, temperatures are expected to increase in the coming decades due to levels of CO2 already in the atmosphere. 3

4 Multiple Choice 1. What percentage of GHG emissions in the U.S. comes from the transportation sector? X 33% 28% 56% 70% 2. In December 2007, Congress passed an updated CAFE law mandating that new cars, SUVs, and light trucks together average miles per gallon by X 35 MPG 40 MPG 15MPG 25 MPG 3. Which two countries generate the most GHG emissions? Russia X U.S.A. X China Japan Saudi Arabia4

5 Multiple Choice (cont.) 4. Once in the atmosphere, CO2 has a lifetime on the order of years. 10 yrs 25 yrs 50 yrs X 100 yrs 5. Which is not an effect of climate change? X A temperature increase felt in all areas of the world Rising sea levels An increase in intensity of extreme weather events Flooding 5

6 Multiple Choice (cont.) 6. Impacts of rising sea levels include which of the following? Flooding in lowland areas Submersion of coastal beaches Salt-water intrusion into groundwater estuaries Elimination of certain animal species X All of the above 6

7 Multiple Choice (cont.) 7. Which of the following factors did not contribute to increasing GHGs per capita for passenger travel in U.S. over the past few decades? Number of cars/capita Amount of driving/car Energy use/vehicle mile traveled by light duty vehicles Use of air travel X Energy use per seat-mile for jet planes 7

8 Multiple Choice (cont.) 8. Which part of the world is experiencing greater effects from climate change? X Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere 9. Energy is measured in: X BTU CEU CAFE PPM 10. How many states currently have energy and/or climate action plans? 0 states 15 states X 36 states 50 states 8

9 Bonus Fill-in-the-Blank 11. Name five sources of renewable energy: Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass Hydroelectric 9

10 Sources of GHGs in the U.S. Percentage of U.S. GHG Emissions, 2006 All gases, in teragrams (Tg) of CO2 equivalent 10

11 Greenhouse Gases (GHGs): Carbon Dioxide CO2 emissions are directly related to energy consumption CO2 is the major transportation GHG (about 95% of overall impact) Atmospheric CO2 concentrations growing every year because: CO2 emissions growing CO2 has a long atmospheric lifetime (~100 years or more) CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere Unlike urban air pollution, which dissipates under the right weather conditions, CO2 accumulates because plants and oceans can t absorb it fast enough 11

12 Changes in natural systems are consistent with rising temperatures The 2007 IPCC report evaluated over 25,000 studies: >90% show results consistent with warming Some measured (not modeled) impacts include: Increases in atmospheric water vapor Permafrost melt Changes in biological systems (shifting habitat zones, earlier leaf-out dates, shorter hibernation periods) Increases in heat waves, wildfires, and floods Net loss of glacial ice and sea ice Rising sea level 12

13 Ice Loss and Sea Level Rise Ice loss from Greenland and Antarctica have very likely (> 90% chance) contributed to sea level rise (thermal expansion has also contributed) High confidence (> 80% chance) that the rate of sea level rise increased from the 19th to the 20th centuries 13

14 Sea Level is Rising Faster Global-average sea level rise 6.7 inches over the last century; the rate* of sea level rise has increased in recent years 14 * mm = 3.5 mm/yr; compare = 1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr

15 Human Activities Very Likely Cause Global Warming Very likely (> 90% chance) that net effect of human activities since mid-18th century has led to global warming Extremely unlikely (< 5% chance) that observed temperature changes can be explained otherwise 15

16 Mid-21st century warming under Business As Usual (BAU) scenario 16 Note: Continental warming far exceeds global average.

17 Impacts of Further Temperature Increases in North America Pests, diseases, and fire affect forests; extended period of high fire risk and large increases in area burned Increased number and duration of urban heat waves Impacts on transportation systems from heat, sea level rise, storms 17

18 Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Three recent reports examined potential climate change impacts on transportation infrastructure: Gulf Coast study Mid-Atlantic states study TRB report 290: Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Transportation These reports highlight need for transportation systems to adapt to future climate change 18

19 Highways Vulnerable to Relative Sea Level Rise Baseline (Present Day) 4 Feet of Sea Level Rise 19

20 IPCC Recommendation To prevent the more serious consequences of climate change, temperature increases should be limited to C (4-5 F) Would require a 50-85% reduction in GHG emissions by

21 What can we do to reduce transportation GHG emissions? Road Pricing Compact Development Transit Bike/Pedestrian Facilities Interconnectivity HOV Lanes Telecommuting Reduce construction emissions Reduce maintenance emissions Use of rights-of-way to support Sequestration Alternative Fuel 21

22 What can we do to reduce transportation GHG emissions? 1) Improve vehicle energy efficiency (fuel economy) 2) Transition to low-ghg fuels 3) Reduce VMT growth through better planning 4) Improve transportation system efficiency 5) Employ pricing strategies & market-based measures 6) Sequester carbon No one silver bullet will produce major reductions in GHG emissions all of these strategies necessary for the U.S. to reduce its GHG emissions by 50-85% 22

23 1) Improve Vehicle Fuel Efficiency The US made great strides in improving fuel economy between 1975 and 1985 and then stopped 23

24 2) Transition to Low-GHG Fuels Replace gasoline and diesel with fuels such as biodiesel and natural gas, which can emit less GHGs over their lifecycle from production and refining to distribution and final use 24

25 3) Improve Transportation System Efficiency Congestion Reduction Higher Occupancy Alternate Modes Congestion Pricing Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS)/ Traffic Operations 25

26 Intermodal Freight Transfer Facilities Proposed Long Island Intermodal Freight Terminal project would reduce CO2 emissions by 4,355 tons/year, by shifting freight from trucks to rail a 32% reduction compared to No Action. 26

27 4) Reduce Growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) through Better Planning With current rates of VMT growth, 2007 energy bill programs prevent, but don t reduce GHG emissions growth (relative to 2005) Regional VMT growth rates can be reduced through measures like: Urban growth boundaries Higher density in transportation corridors Expansions of regional transit Site-specific VMT growth rates can be reduced through tools like: Parking management Mixed-use development Transit-oriented development 27

28 5) Employ Pricing Strategies & Market-Based Measures Congestion charges Feebates Pay-as-you-drive auto insurance VMT fees, fuel taxes Cap and trade, GHG taxes Pricing strategies are designed to shift costs to more accurately reflect true cost or impact of an activity Examples: Feebate programs encourage purchase of more efficient vehicles (surcharges on thirsty vehicles used to pay for rebates on efficient ones) Pay-as-you-drive auto insurance (those who drive more, pay more) 28

29 6) Sequester Carbon FHWA pilot project underway to: Develop strategies for sequestering carbon on rights-of-way and other lands managed by State DOTs, through focused native vegetation management Determine whether revenue can be generated from sale of "carbon credits" developed from these projects 29

30 Co-Benefits of GHG Reduction Strategies Even though there is still some lingering uncertainty about climate change, most nearterm actions for addressing transportation GHGs make sense for many other reasons: Ocean acidification Energy security/balance of trade/ economic opportunity Urban air pollution/public health Cost savings Congestion relief 30

31 CMAQ Program The Congestion Mitigation/Air Quality (CMAQ) Improvement Program is a multi-billion dollar funding program under federal transportation legislation Many types of CMAQ-eligible projects reduce VMT, trips, and/or congestion, reducing fuel consumption and GHG emissions 31

32 CMAQ Funding by Project Type Shared Ride 4% Demand Mgmt 3% Ped / Bike 3% Other 8% STP/CMAQ 6% Transit 44% Traffic Flow 32% 32

33 State Climate Initiatives 36 states have climate action plans completed or in development Most plans address transportation in some way: CA vehicle GHG standards Biofuels Fleet efficiency programs Transportation system efficiency/transit TDM programs 15 plans have transportation analysis component (plan/tip, project, or both) 33

34 State & Local Climate Change Initiatives 34

35 Transportation & Air Quality INFORMATION RESOURCES DOT Transportation and Climate Change Clearinghouse: Upcoming Highways and Climate Change web site: Monthly FHWA Transportation and Climate Change newsletter 35 index.htm