T A B L E O F C O N T E N T S ANNEXES PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PART B BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK PART C OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS

Transcription

1 T A B L E PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY 1 GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK 3 COAL MARKET OUTLOOK 4 POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK 5 RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 6 O F C O N T E N T PART B BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK PART C OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS S ANNEXES ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK 7 ENERGY AND COMPETITIVENESS 8 THE BRAZILIAN ENERGY SECTOR TODAY 9 PROSPECTS FOR BRAZIL S DOMESTIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION 10 BRAZILIAN RESOURCES AND SUPPLY POTENTIAL 11 IMPLICATIONS OF BRAZIL S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT 12 FROM OIL RESOURCES TO RESERVES 13 PROSPECTS FOR OIL SUPPLY 14 PROSPECTS FOR OIL DEMAND 15 IMPLICATIONS FOR OIL REFINING AND TRADE 16 ANNEXES

2 Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Foreword 3 Acknowledgements 5 Executive Summary 23 Scope and methodology 33 Scope of report 34 Introducing the scenarios 34 Building blocks of the scenarios 37 Economic growth 37 Population and demographics 40 Energy prices 43 Oil prices 45 Natural gas prices 45 Steam coal prices 47 Carbon markets 49 Technology 51 Global energy trends to Overview of energy trends by scenario 56 Energy trends in the New Policies Scenario 59 Energy demand 59 Energy supply 71 Inter-regional energy trade 76 Implications for energy-related CO 2 emissions 79 Topics in focus 83 Energy trends in Southeast Asia 84 Modern energy for all 87 Energy subsidies 93 Natural gas market outlook 99 Global overview 100 Demand 102 Regional trends 102 Sectoral trends 105 Production 107 Resources and reserves 107 Production trends 108 Focus on unconventional gas 115 Trade, pricing and investment 123 Inter-regional trade 123 Pricing of internationally traded gas 128 Investment Coal market outlook 139 Overview 140 Demand 143 Regional trends 143 Sectoral trends 145 Supply 147 Resources and reserves 147 Production 148 Trade 150 Costs and investment 152 Pricing of internationally traded coal 154 Regional insights 156 China 156 United States 159 India 163 Australia 165 ASEAN 166 Power sector outlook 169 Introduction 170 Electricity demand 171 Electricity supply 174 Capacity retirements and additions 176 Fossil-fuelled generation 181 Nuclear power 186 Renewables 188 Transmission and distribution 189 CO 2 emissions 190 Investment 191 Electricity prices 192 Residential 194 Industry 195 Renewable energy outlook 197 Recent developments 198 Renewables outlook by scenario 199 Renewables outlook by use in the New Policies Scenario 201 Power generation 201 Biofuels 204 Heat 207 Focus on power generation from variable renewables 208 Wind power 209 Solar photovoltaics

3 7 8 Implications for electricity systems and markets 212 Competitiveness and unit costs 217 Bioenergy 221 Investment 224 Subsidies 225 Energy efficiency outlook 231 Introduction 232 Current status of energy efficiency 234 Recent progress 234 Recent policy developments 237 Recent sectoral trends 240 The outlook for energy efficiency 241 Trends by region 242 Trends by sector 245 Investment in energy efficiency 254 Broader benefits 256 Energy imports 256 Impact on total household expenditure 257 Local air pollution 259 CO 2 emissions 259 Energy and competitiveness 261 Energy and international competitiveness 262 Energy price disparities 267 Just how big are regional disparities in energy prices? 267 How are regional energy price disparities set to evolve? 271 Energy and industrial competitiveness 275 Why do energy price disparities affect industrial competitiveness? 275 How does carbon pricing affect industrial competitiveness? 282 Focus on chemicals 283 Focus on iron and steel 285 Focus on refining 287 The outlook for industrial energy and competitiveness 287 Focus on the outlook for chemicals 291 Energy and economic competitiveness 292 What is the impact of energy price disparities on overall trade balances? 294 What is the impact of energy price disparities on household income? 296 Energy competitiveness and policy implications 297 Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK The Brazilian energy sector today 303 Introducing Brazil s energy sector 304 Domestic energy trends 306 Power sector 309 Bioenergy 312 Oil and gas 315 Energy-related CO 2 emissions and energy efficiency 318 Regional and global interactions 319 Projecting future developments 321 The building blocks 322 Prospects for Brazil s domestic energy consumption 329 Domestic energy consumption trends 330 Outlook for the power sector 332 Electricity demand 332 Electricity generation 335 Transmission and distribution 340 Investment 341 Outlook for other energy-consuming sectors 344 Industry 344 Transport 348 Buildings 351 Other sectors (agriculture, non-energy use) 354 Outlook by fuel 354 Oil products 354 Natural gas 355 Renewables 358 Coal 359 Brazilian resources and supply potential 361 Oil and gas 362 Resources and reserves 362 Oil production 367 Gas production 378 Renewables 383 Hydropower 383 Biofuels 387 Other bioenergy 391 Wind 391 Solar

4 12 Other fuels 394 Coal 394 Nuclear 395 Implications of Brazil s energy development 397 Context for Brazilian energy development 398 Energy and the Brazilian economy 398 Pricing 403 Revenues 403 Energy trade and security 405 Regional co-operation 405 Brazil and international oil and gas markets 407 Brazil and international biofuels trade 410 Energy and the environment 411 Energy-related emissions 413 Energy efficiency 415 Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS From oil resources to reserves 421 Classifying oil 422 Conventional oil 425 Resources 425 Reserves 430 Enabling technologies: focus on enhanced oil recovery 437 Unconventional oil 446 Resources 446 Reserves 451 Enabling technologies 452 Supply costs 453 Prospects for oil supply 457 Global oil supply trends 458 Decline rate analysis 459 The importance of decline 459 Decline rates for conventional oil 462 Decline rates for unconventional oil 466 Implications for future production Oil production by type 471 Focus on light tight oil 474 Oil production by region 479 Non-OPEC 479 OPEC 483 Supply trends and potential implications for prices 488 A Low Oil-Price Case 490 Upstream industry structure 493 Investment 495 Prospects for oil demand 501 Global oil demand trends 502 Oil demand by region 503 Focus on the Middle East 505 Oil demand by sector 509 Transport 511 Industry 521 Other sectors 528 Oil demand by product 528 Implications for oil refining and trade 535 Making the connection between oil demand and supply 536 Products bypassing the refining sector 537 Natural gas liquids 537 The refining sector 540 Global refining outlook 542 Refining sector outlook by region 546 Oil trade 561 ANNEXES 567 Annex A. Tables for Scenario Projections 569 Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 645 Annex C. Definitions 657 Annex D. References

5 List of figures Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Figures for Chapter 1: Scope and methodology 1.1 Primary energy demand and GDP GDP per capita by region Natural gas prices by region in the New Policies Scenario Current and proposed schemes that put a price on carbon 50 Figures for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to World primary energy demand and related CO 2 emissions by scenario Change in world primary energy demand by scenario, Primary energy demand and energy intensity in the New Policies Scenario Change in oil demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario World primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Share of world primary energy demand by region Primary energy demand in selected regions and the share of global growth in the New Policies Scenario Share of the growth in world primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Change in energy demand by sector and fuel in the New Policies Scenario, Fossil energy resources by type Change in production by fuel in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Net oil and gas import/export shares in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Change in world energy-related CO 2 emissions by policy measure in the 4-for-2 C Scenario Energy-related CO 2 emissions by region in the New Policies Scenario Energy-related CO 2 emissions per capita and CO 2 intensity in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Energy in Southeast Asia Shares of population with access to electricity and clean cooking facilities by region in the New Policies Scenario Economic value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies by fuel for top 25 countries, Rates of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies in 2012 and recent developments in selected countries 97 Figures for Chapter 3: Natural gas market outlook 3.1 Natural gas demand and production growth in selected regions, Natural gas demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario World natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Change in annual natural gas production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario Remaining unconventional gas resources in selected regions, end Growth in unconventional gas production by type in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Unconventional gas production by selected country in the New Policies Scenario European Union natural gas supply and demand balance in the New Policies Scenario China natural gas supply and demand balance in the New Policies Scenario Estimated shares of internationally traded gas by type of pricing mechanism Regional gas prices in the New Policies Scenario and in the Gas Price Convergence Case Differences in gas consumption between the Gas Price Convergence Case and the New Policies Scenario Change in import volumes and imports bills for selected regions in the Gas Price Convergence Case, relative to the New Policies Scenario, Cumulative investment in natural gas supply infrastructure by region in the New Policies Scenario 137 Figures for Chapter 4: Coal market outlook 4.1 Incremental world coal demand, historical and by scenario Coal demand by key region in the New Policies Scenario Coal demand by key sector in the New Policies Scenario Reserves and cumulative production by major coking and steam coal producers in the New Policies Scenario FOB cash costs for seaborne steam coal exports, Quarterly indices for IEA crude oil and steam coal prices China s electricity generation in the New Policies Scenario Coal demand in China and the rest of the world by major sector in the New Policies Scenario Average costs of steam coal delivered to coastal China, US production cash costs for domestic steam coal, US net exports of coal in the New Policies Scenario Major net importers of coal in the New Policies Scenario Australian coal exports by type in the New Policies Scenario ASEAN coal balance in the New Policies Scenario 167 Figures for Chapter 5: Power sector outlook 5.1 World electricity demand by scenario relative to electricity demand assuming no change in electricity intensity Electricity demand per capita in selected regions as a share of the OECD average in the New Policies Scenario Electricity generation by source in the New Policies Scenario Installed capacity by source in the New Policies Scenario 177

6 5.5 Age profile of installed thermal capacity by region, end Power generation gross capacity additions and retirements by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, Power capacity changes in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Coal-fired power generation by region in the New Policies Scenario Share of coal-fired power generation by technology and average efficiency in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Gas-fired power generation by selected region in the New Policies Scenario Electricity generating costs for coal and gas by selected region and for fuel prices Nuclear power installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Renewables-based power generation and share of total generation by region in the New Policies Scenario Existing and additional kilometres of transmission and distribution lines by selected region in the New Policies Scenario CO 2 emissions intensity in the power sector and electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario Power sector cumulative investment by type and region in the New Policies Scenario, Average residential electricity prices (excluding taxes) by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario Average industry electricity prices (excluding taxes) by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario 195 Figures for Chapter 6: Renewable energy outlook 6.1 Renewable energy share in total primary energy demand by category and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2011 and Incremental electricity generation from renewables in selected regions, Average annual increases in renewables-based capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative global renewables-based capacity additions and retirements by technology in the New Policies Scenario, Share of renewables in heat production in the residential sector for selected regions in the New Policy Scenario Installed wind power capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Installed solar PV capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario Indicative hourly electricity demand and residual electricity demand with expanding deployment of solar PV Shares of wind and solar power capacity and generation in the New Policies scenario Indicative breakeven costs of residential solar PV using the grid parity and cost parity approaches Renewable electricity production costs relative to the wholesale prices for selected technologies and regions in the New Policies Scenario World bioenergy use by sector in the New Policies Scenario Biofuels demand and production in selected regions Cumulative investment in renewables-based power generation capacity, Global renewable energy subsidies by source in the New Policies Scenario Global subsidies for renewable electricity generation and generation by source in the New Policies Scenario, Renewables-based generation subsidies by source and selected region in the New Policies Scenario 229 Figures for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Proportion of long-term economic energy efficiency potential achieved in the New Policies Scenario, Primary energy intensity levels and trends in selected regions, Annual relative change in global primary energy intensity by driver, Energy intensity change by sector and region, Change in global primary energy demand by category in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario a Energy intensity by region in the New Policies Scenario b Primary energy savings by region in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario in Primary energy savings from energy efficiency by fuel and sector in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario in Energy intensity reduction in the iron and steel sector by type of improvement, Fuel savings from energy efficiency in road transport in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario a Energy consumption by end-use in households by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2011 and b Final energy savings in households in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario by region, Average annual energy efficiency investment by scenario and sector Payback periods for selected technologies and regions, Avoided import bills from energy efficiency in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario, Economic impacts of energy efficiency Change in annual per-capita household spending on energy and non-energy goods and services in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario World energy-related CO 2 emissions abatement in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario 260

7 Figures for Chapter 8: Energy and competitiveness 8.1 World energy use in industry by fuel in the New Policies Scenario Ratio of Japanese and European natural gas import prices to United States natural gas spot price Ratio of OECD coking to steam coal prices and Asian to European steam coal prices Industrial energy prices including tax by fuel and region, Average industrial energy prices including tax by region Ratio of Japanese and European natural gas import prices to United States natural gas spot prices in the New Policies Scenario Industrial electricity prices by region and cost component in the New Policies Scenario Ratio of European Union, Japanese and Chinese to US industrial electricity prices including tax in the New Policies Scenario Industrial energy intensity by sub-sector and region, Share of energy in total production costs by sub-sector, Share of energy in total material costs in the United States Value of the US dollar vis-à-vis other major currencies Sensitivity of US industrial total material costs to CO 2 prices, Share of energy in total material costs for selected chemical products in the United States, Historical and planned ethylene capacity additions by region World incremental energy demand by industrial sub-sector and fuel in the New Policies Scenario Regional shares of global export market value of energy-intensive industries in the New Policies Scenario a Regional shares of global export market and growth in export values by selected sector in the New Policies Scenario Chemicals b Regional shares of global export market and growth in export values by selected sector in the New Policies Scenario Non-ferrous metals Compound average annual change in chemicals energy use and production by region in the New Policies Scenario Overall trade balance including energy trade by region Fossil fuel net import bills by region in the New Policies Scenario Share of energy expenditures in household income by region in the New Policies Scenario Compound average annual change in industrial production, efficiency and energy demand by scenario, Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK Figures for Chapter 9: The Brazilian energy sector today 9.1 Share of renewables in total primary energy demand in selected regions, Energy map of Brazil Brazil primary energy demand and GDP growth Changes in income distribution in Brazil Brazil domestic energy balance, Brazil final energy consumption by fuel in selected sectors Brazil electricity supply by source Brazil consumption of gasoline and ethanol in road transport Evolution of Brazil s proven oil and gas reserves Brazil oil production and domestic demand Brazil greenhouse-gas emissions by source Energy intensity of GDP in Brazil as a share of selected regional and global averages Brazil self-sufficiency in natural gas and selected oil products Brazil s energy policy and regulatory institutions 322 Figures for Chapter 10: Prospects for Brazil s domestic energy consumption 10.1 Brazil GDP and primary energy demand by scenario Primary energy mix in Brazil and the world in the New Policies Scenario Brazil electricity supply and demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Brazil power generation capacity additions in the New Policies Scenario Brazil power generation by source in the New Policies Scenario Brazil energy storage potential from hydropower reservoirs in compared with total generation in the New Policies Scenario Brazil indicative monthly variations in power generation by source Brazil s electricity sector Brazil average annual investment in the power sector in the New Policies Scenario Brazil change in energy demand in selected energy-intensive manufacturing in the New Policies Scenario, Average natural gas and electricity prices to industry by component Brazil road-transport fuel demand by type in the New Policies Scenario Share of domestic freight transport by mode in selected regions Brazil change in energy demand in the buildings sector in Brazil in the New Policies Scenario, Brazil natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Brazil consumption of non-hydro renewable energy by sector in the New Policies Scenario 358 Figures for Chapter 11: Brazilian resources and supply potential 11.1 Main hydrocarbon basins in Brazil Global discoveries of super-giant oil fields Global deepwater oil output by company Brazil oil production by basin in the New Policies Scenario FPSO deployment in the New Policies Scenario and in the High Brazil Case Evolution of local content requirements in Brazil Main oil and gas fields and infrastructure in the Santos and Campos basins 375

8 11.8 Brazil gas production in the New Policies Scenario Santos Basin gas production for different gas reinjection rates Brazil hydropower resources by river basin Brazil hydropower potential by classification of suitability Seasonal variation of selected renewable resources in Brazil Brazil agricultural land assessed as suitable for sugarcane production Biofuels production in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Wind power capacity and capacity factors by country, 2020 and Top ten holders of uranium resources 396 Figures for Chapter 12: Implications of Brazil s energy development 12.1 Average annual investment in Brazil s energy supply infrastructure in the New Policies Scenario Brazil share of installed deepwater subsea equipment and FPSOs in the New Policies Scenario, 2012 and Implications of different plateau production levels for the year in which 50% of Brazil s oil resources are depleted Oil export revenue as a share of GDP in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario Major contributors to global oil supply growth in the New Policies Scenario, Global deepwater oil production by region in the New Policies Scenario Brazil oil balance in the New Policies Scenario Brazil gas balance in the New Policies Scenario CO 2 per capita and CO 2 intensity of GDP in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Energy-related CO 2 emissions by sector, Brazil potential for energy efficiency savings by end-use sector relative to the New Policies Scenario, Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS Figures for Chapter 13: From oil resources to reserves 13.1 Classification of oil resources Classification of liquid fuels Ultimately recoverable conventional crude oil resources and cumulative production required in the New Policies Scenario Conventional crude oil resources by field size and year of discovery Estimated conventional crude oil resources by field size Observed discovery rates and average discovery size Global exploration spending, Evolution of published proven reserves for selected OPEC countries Non-OPEC conventional crude oil proven reserves, Ownership of 2P ( proven-plus-probable ) oil reserves by type of company, Distribution of proven-plus-probable reserves by region and type of company, Oil resources that are developed by scenario as a percentage of proven reserves Estimated global EOR production by technology Typical production profiles for LTO and EOR projects EOR production by selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative production versus remaining recoverable resources by type of unconventional oil in the New Policies Scenario Supply costs of liquid fuels World supply cost curves for 2013 and 2035 in the New Policies Scenario Non-OPEC supply cost curves for 2013 and 2035 in the New Policies Scenario 456 Figures for Chapter 14: Prospects for oil supply 14.1 Indicative illustration of decline phases and concepts Observed year-on-year decline rate and weighted average CADR for conventional oil fields Estimated difference between natural and observed decline rates in currently producing conventional fields Typical production curve for a light tight oil well compared with a conventional oil well Decline in production of conventional crude from currently producing fields in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Production that would be observed from all currently producing fields in the absence of further investment (excluding NGLs) Projected evolution of natural decline rates in key regions in the New Policies Scenario, Shares of world oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario Production of NGLs in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Unconventional oil production in the New Policies Scenario LTO production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario Projected LTO and NGLs production from unconventional plays in the United States in the New Policies Scenario Change in oil production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario, Oil production changes by OPEC/non-OPEC grouping in the New Policies Scenario Oil price and oil demand trajectories in the Low Oil-Price Case compared with the New Policies Scenario Contributions to meeting the additional demand in the Low Oil-Price Case relative to the New Policies Scenario, Oil production by selected resource and company type, Oil production by company type in the New Policies Scenario 495

9 14.19 Global share of oil production and investment by region in the New Policies Scenario Worldwide upstream oil and gas investment and the IEA Upstream Investment Cost Index 499 Figures for Chapter 15: Prospects for oil demand 15.1 World oil demand and oil intensity by scenario Growth in world oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario, Oil consumption subsidies and oil demand per capita by selected countries in the Middle East, Oil demand by sector in the Middle East Electricity generating costs by technologies in the Middle East, Impact of fuel switching and efficiency on global oil demand in the New Policies Scenario World oil demand for transport by sub-sector in the New Policies Scenario PLDV vehicle fleet growth by region in the New Policies Scenario Fuel mix in road-transport energy demand in the New Policies Scenario Estimated payback periods of LNG-powered long-haul trucks in selected markets, 2011 and Natural gas demand for road transport by selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Change of industrial oil demand (excluding feedstocks) by driver in the New Policies Scenario, Production of high-value chemicals in the New Policies Scenario Demand for oil as petrochemical feedstock by region in the New Policies Scenario Simplified principal petrochemical product chains Change in demand for oil by product in the New Policies Scenario, LPG demand in the New Policies Scenario Gasoline demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Diesel demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario World diesel demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Heavy fuel oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 534 Figures for Chapter 16: Implications for oil refining and trade 16.1 World oil production by quality in the New Policies Scenario a World liquids supply in the New Policies Scenario, 2012 and b World liquids supply in the New Policies Scenario, 2012 and Routes to market for NGLs by process in the New Policies Scenario NGLs product yields in the New Policies Scenario Outputs from simple distillation versus final product demand World refining capacity Changes in refinery runs and changes in demand in the New Policies Scenario, Selected regions shown by their net trade position in crude oil and oil products, European product demand split compared with the rest of the world, European dependence on trade for selected transport fuels in the New Policies Scenario Share of imported crude in North American and European refinery runs European refining capacity, demand and oil production in the New Policies Scenario North American gasoline and diesel balances in the New Policies Scenario North American trade of LPG and naphtha in the New Policies Scenario Crude oil trade in selected Asian countries and regions in the New Policies Scenario Refinery runs and demand in selected Asian countries and regions in the New Policies Scenario Oil product trade balance in selected Asian regions in the New Policies Scenario Allocation of Russian crude oil and condensate production in the New Policies Scenario Main oil product yields in Russian refineries in the New Policies Scenario Changes in refinery runs and exports in Iraq and the rest of the Middle East in the New Policies Scenario, Middle East trade of selected oil products in the New Policies Scenario Crude export and refinery runs in selected crude oil-exporting countries and regions in the New Policies Scenario Net oil imports in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario Net oil trade in North America in the New Policies Scenario Combined crude oil trade balance of Middle East and Asia in the New Policies Scenario Crude oil imports by region and source in the New Policies Scenario 564 List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Tables for Chapter 1: Scope and methodology 1.1 Overview of key assumptions and energy prices in the New Policies Scenario Real GDP growth assumptions by region Population assumptions by region Fossil fuel import prices by scenario CO 2 price assumptions in selected regions by scenario Recent progress and key conditions for faster deployment of clean energy technologies 52 Tables for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to World primary energy demand and energy-related CO 2 emissions by scenario 58

10 2.2 World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Number of people without access to modern energy services by region, Number of people without access to modern energy services by region in the New Policies Scenario, 2011 and Tables for Chapter 3: Natural gas market outlook 3.1 Natural gas demand and production by region and scenario Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region, end Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario Global production of unconventional gas in the New Policies Scenario Net natural gas trade by region in the New Policies Scenario (pipeline and LNG) Indicative range of cost estimates for conversion and inter-regional transportation for LNG, Tables for Chapter 4: Coal market outlook 4.1 Coal demand, production and trade by scenario Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario Inter-regional coal trade in the New Policies Scenario 150 Tables for Chapter 5: Power sector outlook 5.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario World electricity demand by sector and generation in the New Policies Scenario Electricity generation by source and scenario Cumulative capacity retirements by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, Cumulative gross capacity additions by region and source in the New Policies Scenario, Tables for Chapter 6: Renewable energy outlook 6.1 World renewable energy use by type and scenario Renewables-based electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario Ethanol and biodiesel consumption in road transport by region in the New Policies Scenario 205 Tables for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced in 2012 and Key energy efficiency assumptions in major regions in the New Policies Scenarios Savings in industrial energy demand and CO 2 emissions from energy efficiency in the New Policies scenario Savings in transport energy demand and CO 2 emissions from energy efficiency in the New Policies Scenario Savings in buildings energy demand and CO 2 emissions from energy efficiency in the New Policies scenario 250 Tables for Chapter 8: Energy and competitiveness 8.1 Share of industry in final energy use by fuel and region, Share of tax in industrial energy prices in selected countries, Indicators of significance of industry to the economy by subsector and region Typology of main energy-intensive industries 280 Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK Tables for Chapter 9: The Brazilian energy sector today 9.1 GDP and population indicators and assumptions Main policy assumptions for Brazil in the New Policies Scenario 326 Tables for Chapter 10: Prospects for Brazil s domestic energy consumption 10.1 Brazil total primary energy demand by fuel and scenario Brazil final energy consumption by sector in the New Policies Scenario Brazil oil demand by product in the New Policies Scenario 355 Tables for Chapter 11: Brazilian resources and supply potential 11.1 Brazil conventional oil resources by region Brazil gas resources by region Indicative oil development and production costs in selected regions 366 Tables for Chapter 12: Implications of Brazil s energy development 12.1 Brazil supply-demand balance by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 405 Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS Tables for Chapter 13: From oil resources to reserves 13.1 Remaining recoverable oil resources and proven reserves, end Comparative economics of LTO and EOR hypothetical projects Major LTO resource-holders 449 Tables for Chapter 14: Prospects for oil supply 14.1 Oil production and supply by source and scenario Breakdown of the field database by field size (recoverable resources) and geographic location Weighted average CADR to 2012 by decline phase World oil production by type in the New Policies Scenario Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 481

11 14.6 OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario Cumulative investment in upstream oil and gas supply by region in the New Policies Scenario, Oil and gas industry investment by company 498 Tables for Chapter 15: Prospects for oil demand 15.1 Oil and total liquids demand by scenario Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario New policies in 2012/2013 with a potential impact on oil demand Oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario Main sources and uses of oil products, World primary oil demand by product in the New Policies Scenario 529 Tables for Chapter 16: Implications for oil refining and trade 16.1 Global total demand for liquids, products and crude throughput in the New Policies Scenario World refining capacity and refinery runs in the New Policies Scenario 545 List of boxes Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Boxes for Chapter 1: Scope and methodology 1.1 Recent key developments in energy and environmental policy Uncertainties around the economic outlook Deriving the fossil fuel prices used in WEO analysis 44 Boxes for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to Building on a new base Fuel shortages in Pakistan Smuggling as a possible driver of fossil-fuel subsidy reform 94 Boxes for Chapter 3: Natural gas market outlook 3.1 Wide variety in regional starting points for the gas outlook Natural gas liquids and upstream gas investment Levant gas on the rise High-Level Unconventional Gas Forum-towards global best practice Are methane hydrates the next revolution-in-waiting? How great should expectations be for North American LNG? Price differentials between regions in a global gas market Trinidad and Tobago: seeking a new foothold in a changing gas world 138 Boxes for Chapter 4: Coal market outlook 4.1 A quick guide to the different types of coal Was 2012 an aberration or a harbinger of change in coal demand? Steam coal trade thrives as demand stutters US President s Climate Action Plan 161 Boxes for Chapter 5: Power sector outlook 5.1 Coal-to-gas switching in the power sector 184 Boxes for Chapter 6: Renewable energy outlook 6.1 Reducing the challenges posed by variable renewables Variable renewables in the 450 Scenario Multiple benefits of renewables 226 Boxes for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency outlook 7.1 The Efficient World Scenario tackling competitiveness, energy security and climate change simultaneously Energy efficiency, energy intensity and energy savings Energy efficiency does deliver 236 Boxes for Chapter 8: Energy and competitiveness 8.1 Defining competitiveness Effect of taxes and subsidies on competitiveness Reindustrialisation of the US economy: myth or reality? The remarkable renaissance of US petrochemicals Expensive energy adds to the steel woes of the European Union Energy competitiveness and the European Union 298 Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK Boxes for Chapter 9: The Brazilian energy sector today 9.1 Electricity crisis in Brazil, Bioenergy in Brazil: more than ethanol Brazil s upstream regulatory framework 317 Boxes for Chapter 10: Prospects for Brazil s domestic energy consumption 10.1 End-user energy efficiency policies in Brazil What if hydropower falls short? Brazil s high tolerance for variable renewables The upstream oil and gas industry a major consumer of its own products Keeping Brazil cool A long and winding road to a competitive Brazilian gas market 357 Boxes for Chapter 11: Brazilian resources and supply potential 11.1 Petrobras and global deepwater oil production Brazil and deepwater regulation after Macondo Could oil suffer from divided royalties? Unconventional gas outlook for Brazil 382

12 11.5 A platform for Amazon hydropower development Prospects for a new generation of biofuels in Brazil 390 Boxes for Chapter 12: Implications of Brazil s energy development 12.1 Choices for oil production beyond self-sufficiency 402 Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS Boxes for Chapter 13: From oil resources to reserves 13.1 Light tight oil, conventional or unconventional? Oil resources and reserves under different classification systems Grouping oil and gas companies in the WEO-2013 analysis The risk of stranded assets in the upstream oil sector Recovery rates and the case for EOR CO 2 enhanced oil recovery for carbon capture and storage 441 Part B: BRAZIL ENERGY OUTLOOK Are high energy prices hurting Brazil s industrial competitiveness? 346 Local content in Brazil; short-term costs, long-term value? 373 How might climate change affect Brazil s energy sector? 412 Part C: OUTLOOK FOR OIL MARKETS Has the rise of LTO resolved the debate about peak oil? 447 What does the rise of light tight oil mean for decline rates? 467 Boxes for Chapter 14: Prospects for oil supply 14.1 Why does production decline? Concepts used in the decline rate analysis Will LTO techniques improve recovery at conventional reservoirs? The rising overseas presence of Asian national oil companies Staffing the oil and gas business 500 Boxes for Chapter 15: Prospects for oil demand 15.1 Could the world ever fall out of love with the automobile? Of chickens, eggs, trucks and cars A guide to petrochemicals Is cheap coal the Chinese answer to cheap gas in the United States? 527 Boxes for Chapter 16: Implications for oil refining and trade 16.1 Is history repeating itself for European refining? 551 List of spotlights Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS How does the IEA model future energy trends? 41 Redrawing the energy-climate map 80 Is China s coal demand set to peak soon? 146 Is residential solar PV already competitive? 218 Policies for energy efficiency in buildings in China 252 What role does energy play in Korea s industrial success? 266