Budapest. Seminar presentation by Iryna Ivaschenko and Srobona Mitra. Magyar Nemzeti Bank October 5, 2009

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2 Budapest Seminar presentation by Iryna Ivaschenko and Srobona Mitra Magyar Nemzeti Bank October 5, 29

3 Outlook and Policies in Emerging Europe Coping with lower potential growth and heightened risk during the recovery

4 Outlook (Chapter 1)

5 A moderate recovery is in sight Euro Area, United Kingdom, and United States: Real Quarterly GDP Growth, 24:Q1-21:Q4 (Percent) 6 5 Euro Area United Kingdom United States Real GDP Growth (Percent) Advanced Europe Emerging Europe Q1 24Q2 24Q3 24Q4 25Q1 25Q2 25Q3 25Q4 26Q1 26Q2 26Q3 26Q4 27Q1 27Q2 27Q3 27Q4 28Q1 28Q2 28Q3 28Q4 29Q1 29Q2 29Q3 29Q4 21Q1 21Q2 21Q3 21Q4 Source:IMF, World Economic Outlook.

6 With real fragilities Selected European Countries: Growth of Real Credit to Private Sector, January 26 May 29 1/ (Percent) Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland Romania and Bulgaria Russia and Ukraine Sweden United Kingdom Jan-6 Mar-6 May-6 Jul-6 Sep-6 Nov-6 Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Sources: Haver Analytics; and IMF, International Financial Statistics. 1/ Unweighted averages of annual growth rates Selected European Countries and the United States: Unemployment, January 1999 August 29 (Percent) Euro area 1/ Ireland Spain Emerging economies 2/ United States Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan- Jul- Jan-1 Jul-1 Jan-2 Jul-2 Jan-3 Jul-3 Jan-4 Jul-4 Jan-5 Jul-5 Jan-6 Jul-6 Jan-7 Jul-7 Jan-8 Jul-8 Jan-9 Jul-9 Sources: Eurostat; Haver Analytics; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Excluding Ireland and Spain. 2/ Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine

7 Amid currency mismatches Emerging Europe: Corporate and Household Currency Mismatches, December 28 Foreign currency loans (share of total) Corporate Currency Mismatch Latvia Estonia Albania Bulgaria Lithuania Hungary Romania Ukraine Moldova Macedonia, Belarus FYR Poland Czech Turkey Republic Croatia Serbia Foreign currency deposits (share of total) Hungary Lithuania Estonia Albania Romania Foreign currency deposits (share of total) Source: IMF, Balance Sheet Approach. Notes: The data are referring to foreign currency denominated loans and deposits; including loans and deposits that are indexed to foreign currency would increase the ratios in some of the countries. The Czech Republic, included here among emerging Europe, was reclassified as an advanced economy in the Spring 29 World Economic Outlook. Foreign currency loans (share of total) Households' Currency Mismatch Poland Latvia Ukraine Bulgaria Belarus 1 1 Moldova Macedonia, 1 Czech FYR Turkey Croatia Serbia Republic

8 Strong policy actions prevented Selected European Countries: Policy Rates, 27 9 (Percent) meltdown Selected Countries: Projected Changes in Public Debt (Percent of GDP; change end-27 end-21) Jan-7 Mar-7 May-7 Euro area United Kingdom Sweden Poland Jul-7 Sep-7 Nov-7 Jan-8 Mar-8 May-8 Jul-8 Sep-8 Nov-8 Jan-9 Mar-9 May-9 Sources: Haver Analytics; European Central Bank; Bank of England; Sveriges Riksbank; and National Bank of Poland. Jul Ireland United Kingdom Spain Netherlands Germany Greece France Belgium Portugal Italy Austria Finland Slovenia Sweden Switzerland Latvia Ukraine Lithuania Hungary Romania Poland Turkey W. Balkan countries Estonia Russia Bulgaria Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff calculations. Note: Western Balkan includes Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, and Serbia (average, weighted by PPP GDP).

9 Emerging economy issues during the recovery Weaker growth potential and convergence, especially for poorer countries in emerging Europe A higher and more volatile risk premia during the recovery for emerging Europe

10 Weaker growth potential and convergence, especially for poorer countries in emerging Europe (Chapter 2)

11 Long-term steady state growth Gross Value-Added Growth and Contributions, (Annual average volume growth rates, percent) VA L K TFP LP MARKET ECONOMY Euro area 1/ New Member States Czech Republic Hungary Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovak Republic Slovenia United States FINANCE AND BUSINESS SERVICES Euro area 1/ United Kingdom New Member States Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Poland Slovak Republic Slovenia United States Hard to talk about steady state growth as in advanced countries Overwhelming role of the financial sector in some countries Source: EU Klems database (

12 Role of capital inflows and debt Growth Regression (Dependent variable = annual growth of PPP adjusted per capita income (4-year averages) to 24 7) Coefficient Std error Constant *** Dummy for Europe (EUROPE) * Initial income *** Age dependency rate *** Primary school enrollment ratio Institutional development (Index of Economic Freedom 26) Gross fixed investment/gdp.28.3 Gross fixed investment/gdp * EUROPE FDI/GDP ** FDI/GDP * Initial income FDI/GDP * Initial income * EUROPE Bank-related inflows ** Bank-related inflows * Initial income ** Bank-related inflows * Initial income * EUROPE Government debt/gdp ** Government debt/gdp * EUROPE * Number of observations 273 Number of countries 98 R-square.28

13 Sensitivity analysis Bulgaria Hungary Estonia Latvia Romania Slovak Republic Poland Lithuania Czech Republic Serbia Moldova Albania Bosnia and Herz. Turkey Russia Croatia Belarus Impact of the Crisis on Changes to Medium-Run Growth Estimates in Europe (WEO Average Scenario) Government debt FDI/GDP Bank-related capital inflows

14 A higher and more volatile risk premia during the recovery in emerging Europe (Chapter 4)

15 Risk premia went up dramatically Unlikely to return to precrisis levels & volatility Level and volatility of interest rate spreads in emerging Europe (3-day rolling average and standard deviation of levels, basis points) Level 12 5 Volatility (left scale) /13/26 4/13/26 7/13/26 1/13/26 1/13/27 4/13/27 7/13/27 1/13/27 1/13/28 4/13/28 7/13/28 1/13/28 1/13/29 4/13/29

16 Fiscal and financial sector uncertainty creating turbulence Selected European Countries: Quarterly Revisions in Fiscal Balance Forecast, 24:Q1 29:Q2 1/ Selected European Countries: WEO Revisions in Projected Government Debt for 21 in April 29 over September 28 (Percentage points of GDP) Czech Republic Hungary Poland Russia Turkey Q1 24Q3 25Q1 25Q3 26Q1 Sources: Consensus Economics; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ Change (in percentage points) in the fiscal balance forecast for the year, average of the Consensus Forecasts. 26Q3 27Q1 27Q3 28Q1 28Q3 29Q1-5 Turkey Romania Poland Lithuania Belarus Estonia Hungary Macedonia, FYR Czech Republic Moldova Serbia Croatia Slovak Republic Albania Bosnia and Herz. Bulgaria Russia -1

17 Related exchange rate volatility Selected European Countries: Exchange Rate Volatility, 24:Q1 29:Q1 1/ Czech Republic Hungary Poland Romania Russia Serbia Turkey Ukraine Euro Area Q1 24Q3 25Q1 25Q3 26Q1 26Q3 27Q1 27Q3 28Q1 28Q3 29Q1 Sources: Bloomperg L.P.; and IMF staff calculations. 1/ GARCH estimates on log-changes of the national currency/usd (period average) exchange rate.

18 EMs have higher volatility its now even higher in the crisis Emerging Economies Have Higher Volatility 3. Effect of the Crisis in the Emerging Economy 3. Variability of inflation Emerging economy (EM) Euro Area Variability of output Variability of inflation Precrisis Crisis Contribution of the equilibrium risk premium Variability of output

19 Help from changes in fiscal frameworks Limiting Discretionary Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Emerging Economy Variability of inflation Precrisis Crisis Limiting discretionary fiscal policy Variability of output

20 Policy Implications

21 Financial systems need repair Purge bank balance sheets of residual uncertainty Use results of stress tests to recapitalize and restructure banks Use the crisis as an opportunity to strengthen supervisory, regulatory, and macroprudential frameworks to avoid future accumulation of vulnerabilities Deal with foreign currency debt overhangs in emerging Europe

22 Fiscal policy needs to eye sustainability and transparency Rules-based fiscal policy that limits changes in deficits mostly to automatic stabilizers help anchor sustainability and predictability Increase transparency of contingent liabilities from stresses in the financial system to reduce uncertainty about fiscal outlooks.

23 Monetary policy need good communication Especially now when potential growth is highly uncertain: Clear communication of their strategy and underlying growth assumptions will be essential to anchor expectations and preserve the confidence in the upswing. Elaborated in Chapter 3.

24 Higher returns to structural reforms Higher potential growth will strengthen the recovery, smooth the financial sector cleanup, and facilitate fiscal consolidation Move quickly to repair damage Lisbon agenda Labor & services/product market reforms Foster structural change where crisis has forced adjustment

25 Double dividend Adoption of robust frameworks yields -less uncertainty in growth outcomes during the recovery reduce business cycle volatility during the recovery -higher long-term growth rate

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