Nordic Energy Road Map 2050 Strategic Choices towards Carbon Neutrality (NORSTRAT)

Transcription

1 Nordic Energy Road Map 2050 Strategic Choices towards Carbon Neutrality (NORSTRAT) A project within the program Sustainable Energy System 2050 from Nordic Energy Research Contact: ingeborg.graabak@sintef.no 1

2 Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector

3 Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector

4 NORSTRAT description (1:2) Objective: To build knowledge about possible carbon neutral futures for an integrated Nordic power system in a time perspective up to 2050 based on qualitative scenario analysis of impacts on the electricity, the transport and the heating system combined with the necessary governance aspects to enable the transformation. Two alternative paths are examined: Nordic Balance - A carbon neutral region related to electricity and transport European Hub - The Nordic region as a major exporter of green electricity for Europe 4

5 NORSTRAT description (2:2) Project period: August Partners:, Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Technical University Denmark (DTU) Related Baltic project: Similar project for the Baltic region. Partners: Riga Technical University and Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn 2 PhDs Reference group Vattenfall Dong Energy (Statnett) Finngrid Energinet.dk Dansk Energi Vestas Energi Norge Enova Fortum Svenska Kraftnet DTU Electrification of transport and heating SEI/KTH Policy, regulation & instruments SINTEF Energy markets & transmission development 5

6 Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector

7 The Nordic power system in 2010 (TWh) Energy source Denmark Finland Norway Sweden Sum Wind power Other renewable Fossil fuels Nuclear power Hydropower Nonidentifiable Production Consumption Source: Nord Pool, ENTSO-E 7

8 Location of increase in power demand 2050 based on expected population increase Population increase (1000 inhabitants) Source: SSB,.

9 Localization of new wind production 9

10 Potential for new production from RES in the Nordic region, "Low" and "High case" Country Technology "Low" [TWh/y] "High"[TWh/y] Denmark Offsh wind PV 5 5 Bio 5 Finland Onsh/offsh wind 10/ 10/30 Bio Norway Onsh/offsh wind 13/0 20/30 Hydro Sweden Onsh/offsh wind 20/20 30/30 PV 5 5 Bio Total

11 NORSTRAT scenarios 11

12 Brief overview of EMPS modelling concept Details for hydropower Strategy calculation (SDP) Electricity market specification Aggregation Market data Allocation Stochastic weather Water values Market simulation (LP) Calibration Simulation results Realization Solutions 12

13 Investment algorithm (for analysis of profitable increases in transmission capacities) 14

14 TSO data model for Nordic region + Detailed model of Germany and UK + Single node model per European country (not visible in figure) 41 year of input date for: Hydro inflow Wind Solar Result: periods with simulations

15 Production portfolio Europe Bio Solar/tidal 3000 Wind Hydro 2000 Nuclear 1000 Oil Gas Ref Current policies EE Div supply High RES Delayed CCS Low nucl EU Energy Road Map Scenario 2050 (EU 27) Coal NORSTRAT Europe minus Nordic region 16

16 Carbon Neutral

17 Purely RES

18 European Battery

19 European Hub

20 Net yearly power flow Carbon Neutral European Hub

21 Profitable investments in transmission grids NORSTRAT scenarios 22

22 Flow VESTSYD Great Britain Mid before and after increasing transmission capacities

23 Outline of presentation General about the NORSTRAT project Analyses of the Nordic power system Carbon Neutral scenarios Electrification of the transport sector

24 Demand Study on Large Scale Deployment of EVs in Nordic Region Study Scope: Private Passenger Cars Energy Consumption Rate: 150 Wh/km Driving Pattern: Fulfill the Current Driving Requirement Source: Technical University of Denmark 25

25 Data Sources: National Travel Survey Source: Technical University of Denmark

26 Number of Passenger Cars in Nordic Region Denmark 2,1 mil. Sweden 3,7 mil. Norway 2,8 mil. Finland 3,0 mil. Source: Technical University of Denmark 27

27 Annual Electricity Consumption of EVs in Nordic Region EV Penetration Level Denmark East [GWh] Denmark West [GWh] Sweden [GWh] Norway [GWh] Finland [GWh] 100% % % Source: Technical University of Denmark 28

28 EV Charging Analysis in Nordic Region Dumb Charging (All-Day) Dumb Charging (At Home) Timed Charging (Initiating After 21:00 When Parked) Spot Price Based Charging (All-Day) Spot Price Based Charging (At Home) Source: Technical University of Denmark 29

29 Peak Electrical Charging Load of EVs in Nordic Region [1phase-10A Charging] Source: Technical University of Denmark 30

30 EV/grid analysis Reference Spot Dumb

31 Preliminary conclusions Expected population growth and plans for new renewable production are in many cases in different regions. This particularly applies to Norway. The Nordic region has sufficient potential for new renewable power production to phase out fossil production and to cover the estimated increase in demand. The profitability for expansion of the transmission grid is "modest" in the scenario Carbon Neutral, an increase of the capacity of ca 9% compared to 2012 Export of 110 TWh/y from the Nordic region to Europe combined with demand growth and phasing out fossil production results in profitability of large expansions of transmission capacities (61% compared to 2012) (scenario European Hub) Connections between Norway and UK and Norway and Germany are found profitable in the scenarios where it is allowed to build the connections. 100% deployment of EVs for personal transport increases power consumption in Norway with 4-5% and peak load with nearly 15%.

32 Takk for oppmerksomheten!!