BENTEK North American Market Overview & Outlook. To Illinois State University Institute for Regulatory Policy Studies Springfield, IL

Transcription

1 BENTEK North American Market Overview & Outlook To Illinois State University Institute for Regulatory Policy Studies Springfield, IL October 30,

2 Agenda Drilling Efficiencies and Oil & NGL Production Will Sustain Annual Growth of Gas Volumes Demand Is Responding to Low Prices Prices Will Be Low and Stable as Supply Continues to Overwhelm Demand Changes in Intra-Regional Flow Dynamics Will Impact Local Prices, Particularly Out West 2

3 Massive Displacement Forcing Gas Into New Markets Source: BENTEK Cell Model 3

4 Supply 4

5 U.S. Production Slows But Sustains YOY Growth Avg: 63.5 Bcf/d Avg: 61.6 Bcf/d 2010 Avg: 57.1 Bcf/d Bcf/d Avg: 55.1 Bcf/d Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD Source: BENTEK Supply/Demand Balance History 5

6 Massive Shift of Rigs to Oil & Liquids Plays 36/+11 42/+14 CALIFORNIA 7/+4 OTHER ROCKIES 28/-2 2/-1 Rig Increases Dry Gas Focused Areas 6/-2 31/ /+133 POWDER RIVER WIND RIVER GREEN RIVER 13/-10 PICEANCE UINTA SAN JUAN PERMIAN 470/+251 Rig Increases Liquids-Rich/Oil Focused Areas WILLISTON 43/+25 D-J ANADARKO 219/+96 75/-34 FT WORTH OTHER MIDCONTINENT 103/+65 EAST TX 260/ /+11 6/-23 43/-50 30/-99 TX GULF EAGLE FORD ILLINOIS 9/+1 ARK FAYETTEVILLE 16/-21 ARK WOODFORD 95/+11 24/+9 MICHIGAN 14/+3 6/+0 27/+23 Rig Declines Source: BENTEK, October 2012 ARKLA AL-MS-FL LA GULF TX GULF UTICA OFFSHORE 3/-9 OTHER APPALACHIAN 70/-6 42/+24 MARCELLUS DRY MARCELLUS WET TOTAL 2006 CHANGE +716 Active rig count: October 5, 2012 / Change in rig count from Jan. 1, 2010 Source: BENTEK Regional Production Monitors, September

7 IRRs Shift Production to Oil/NGL-Rich Plays Horn -1% Montney WCSB 16% 0% Dry Gas Play NGL Play Oil Play Bakken 56% Pinedale 3% Niobrara Piceance 4% 51% 7% Uinta 32% 68% Cleve/Tonk Marcellus 98% 94% Miss.Lime Granite Wash 84% Fayetteville 1% 4% Permian 89% Ark/Wood 0% Haynesville 50% Eagle Ford Source: Company Presentations, Quarterly Reports, and News Releases 7

8 Numerous Plays Become Attractive Again at $4 Gas Horn -1% 0% WCSB Pinedale 3% 27% 43% 7% Marcellus Current $5 1% Ark/Wood 4% Fayetteville 16% 29% 0% Haynesville 8% 19% Source: Company Presentations, Quarterly Reports, and News Releases 8

9 Technology Gains Drive Gas Production 2007 Q Q Q Q1 SWN Energy Fayetteville Shale +533% 116, % +137% -58% +138% 43 4,985 2,673 +8% ,104 1,006 18,360 $2.8 $2.6 Drill Time (Days) Wells Per Yr. Per Rig Avg. Lateral Length ( Feet) 30 Day Ave. Prod Rate (Mcfd) IP Additions Per Rig Per Yr. (Mcf/d) Drill & Complete Costs ($MM) Source: Southwestern Energy Financials 9

10 Bcf/d Shale Rig Counts Peaked in 2010 Yet Production Has Grown 8 Bcf/d Since Horizontal Rig Count Fayetteville Haynesville Marcellus Horizontal Rig Count 0 Source: BENTEK Production Monitors 10

11 Associated Gas, Efficiencies, Stronger Prices Will Sustain Production Growth Bcf/d By Bcf/d History Forecast Source: BENTEK Forward Curve Quarterly

12 U.S. Substantially Less Reliant on Canadian Gas 10 Historic Exports: 6.77 Bcf/d Historic Decline: 0.67 Bcf/d History Forecast Exports: 4.29 Bcf/d Forecast Forecast Decline: 0.78 Bcf/d 8 6 Bcf/d Net Exports To West Net Exports to Midwest Net Exports to Northeast Source: BENTEK Canadian Observer Suite and CellCast 12

13 Demand 13

14 90 80 Power, Industrial, Mexican Exports Spur Demand Growth History Forecast +9 Bcf/d Vs Bcf/d Power ResComm Industrial Exports to Mexico Pipe Loss Does not include forecast LNG exports Source: BENTEK Forward Curve Quarterly

15 Over 70 Industrial Demand Expansions Planned By 2017 Source: BENTEK Industrial End Users Report 15

16 Industrial Demand Forecast to Add 0.3 Bcf/d/year Bcf/d 10 Demand bottoms out with recession Summer baseload has since increased 1.3 Bcf/d Winter & Summer to average 1.3 Bcf/d above History: BENTEK Supply/Demand Balance Analytic Report History Forecast: BENTEK Forward Curve Quarterly,

17 Mexican Exports to Continue Rising Bcf/d 8 Mexican Demand Up to 1 Bcf/d of Export Expansions By History Projected U.S. Exports to Mexico Bcf/d History Forecast Mexican Demand: SENER History: BENTEK Supply/Demand Balance Analytic Report History Forecast: BENTEK Forward Curve Quarterly,

18 YOY Gas Demand from Power Up 5 Bcf/d (23%) YTD: 26.7 Bcf/d Vs YTD: +5.0 Bcf/d Vs. 5-Yr YTD: +6.7 Bcf/d 30 Bcf/d Yr. Avg Source: BENTEK Supply/Demand Balance History 18

19 Gas Prices Capable of Capturing Market Share 40 3,000 Bcf/d Month Forward HH Avg $ Bcf/d 2011 HH Avg $ Bcf/d 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Thousand Tons Equivalent 0 - PRB CAPP NAPP Illinois Uinta Imports Other Source: EIA, BENTEK Power Burn Report 19

20 New Gas-Fired Generation Will Boost Demand Under Construction Year MW , , , Total 19,293 Gas Burn Equivalent 1.7 Bcf/d Under Construction + Proposed Gas Burn Equivalent 5.9 Bcf/d Gas Burn Equivalent assumes all plants are combined-cycle running at 50% utilization with heat rates of 7.5. Source: Platts & BENTEK Generation Data 20

21 Tightening Balance May Support Near-Term Prices; Long-Term Supply Surplus Grows Bcf/d Supply Demand (No LNG Exports) Source: BENTEK Forward Curve Quarterly

22 N.America Becomes Net LNG Exporter By (0.4) (0.8) Net LNG Exports (Bcf/d) First Ex Q1 2016, Net Ex Q Source: BENTEK Special Report LNG Surge 22

23 Regional Dynamics 23

24 Massive Displacement Forcing Gas Into New Markets Source: BENTEK Cell Model 24

25 Marcellus to Remain Cheapest Gas Due to Production Growth and Takeaway Constraints Bcf/d Incremental 7.4 Bcf/d by 2016 Northeast Production Bcf/d Northeast Inflows Legacy Production Lean Marcellus Wet Marcellus Utica Canada Midcon Southeast LNG Source: BENTEK Northeast Production Monitor and BENTEK Cell Model 25

26 Canadian Production Declines But Exceeds 12 Bcf/d 18 Annual Production: 15.2 Bcf/d Annual Decline: 0.52 Bcf/d Actual Annual Production: 13.1 Bcf/d Projection Annual Decline: 0.29 Bcf/d Bcf/d Alberta BC Other Montney Horn River Saskatchewan NWT NB NS Source: BENTEK Canadian Production Monitor Monthly 26

27 Rockies Production To Stay Flat 12 History Forecast 10 8 Bcf/d DJ Other Piceance Powder River GR-O Uinta Source: BENTEK Rockies Production Monitor 27

28 Anadarko Basin Drives MCP Growth 8 Midcon Producing Production Forecast Bcf/d Source: BENTEK Midcon Production Monitor 28

29 Expansions Will Support Bakken Growth Bcf/d Williston Basin Expansions ONEOK Garden Creek ONEOK Stateline II HESS Tioga Plant Expansion ONEOK Stateline I 330 MMcf/d of Planned Processing Expansions Over Next Three Years Gross Production Flared Processing Capacity Source: BENTEK Midcon Production Monitor 29

30 Midcon Sources Gas From Other Areas Market Share of Midcon Imports Northeast 1% 2007 Northeast 3% 2012 Rockies 23% MCP 10% Rockies 21% MCP 13% SE Gulf 23% Canada 43% SE Gulf 32% Canada 31% Source: BENTEK Midcon Observer 30

31 Midcon Demand Stagnant Bcf/d per year +0.2 Bcf/d per year Bcf/d RCI - History Power - History RCI - Forecast Power - Forecast Source: BENTEK CellCast and Midcon Observer 31

32 Midcon Market Gas Power Demand Rising ,000 Bcf/d Gas Burn: YTD: 1.99 Bcf/d Bcf/d above 2011 YTD +0.9 Bcf/d above 3-Yr YTD 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 MW Generated , Year Average YTD Gas Burn Total Power Generation - Source: BENTEK Midcon Observer History and Energy Information Administration 32

33 Supply Shifts and Production Growth Will Moderate Prices $0.35 $0.15 -$0.05 -$0.25 Opal $0.35 $0.15 -$0.05 -$0.25 Chicago $0.35 $0.15 -$0.05 -$0.25 Tetco M3 SoCal $0.35 $0.15 -$0.05 -$0.25 $0.35 $0.15 -$0.05 -$0.25 Waha $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Henry Hub Dominion S. $0.35 $0.15 -$0.05 -$0.25 Source: ICE/Clearport and BENTEK Natural Gas Price Matrix 33

34 CASW Inbound Pipelines Are At ~80% Capacity Bcf/d Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 El Paso North El Paso South PG&E (Redwood) TransWestern (W.Thoreau) Kern (Veyo) Aggregate Capacity Source: BENTEK West Coast Observer 34

35 Demand & Export Growth Will Test CASW Capacity Bcf/d Total Flows Projected Flows Mexican Expansions (Fully Utilized) Forecast CA/SW Demand Growth Capacity Source: BENTEK West Coast Observer, CellCast, and Forward Curve 35

36 California Features Highest Demand Prices Cash ($/MMBtu) Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 PG&E SoCal Henry Chicago Transco Z6 FGT Z3 Source: CME/NYMEX Clearport and BENTEK Natural Gas Price Matrix 36

37 Another Shift Looms With LNG Exports Source: BENTEK Cell Model 37

38 Basis Tightening Continent-Wide AECO $0.44 -$0.49 -$0.32 -$0.42 Dawn Sumas $0.13 -$0.28 -$0.11 -$0.12 NW Rox $0.82 -$0.47 -$0.23 -$ $0.32 $0.37 $0.39 $0.29 Transco Z6 Chicago (Nicor) $0.95 $1.03 $0.99 $0.47 $0.00 $0.08 $0.12 $0.07 PG&E $0.21 $0.16 $0.25 $0.33 SoCal $0.30 -$0.13 $0.07 $0.15 Dominion South $0.31 $0.21 $0.12 $0.02 Waha Henry Hub (Cash) $0.51 -$0.22 -$0.12 -$0.08 $3.92 $4.37 $3.99 $ prices are average of year-to-date as of Tetco M $0.72 $0.74 $0.63 $

39 Price Outlook 39

40 Prices To Remain Range Bound Between $3 to $3.50 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 U$/MMBtu $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 NYMEX BENTEK Source: BENTEK Market Call NYMEX is 30-day average as of

41 Significant Resistance at $5 Mark U$/MMBtu $5.00 $4.50 $4.00 $3.50 $3.00 $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $ NYMEX BENTEK NYMEX is last seven-day average as of Source: BENTEK US Forward Curve

42 Key Takeaways Despite Weak Gas Prices Supply Will Remain Abundant Structural Demand Growing But Not Pacing Supply Basis Will Flatten Until LNG Exports Become Established Until Then Gas Will Struggle to Break $5 Mark 42

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