MEXICO AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK

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1 Information Analytics Expertise MAY, 2015 MEXICO AUTOMOTIVE OUTLOOK Mexico Now Guido Vildozo, Manager Latin America Light Vehicle Sales Forecasts, IHS / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED

2 Agenda Global Outlook US Sales NAFTA Production Mexico Production Key Takeaways 2

3 World light vehicle selling rates Low oil will help weak global market; China remains the key to industry growth World World without China Global market, without China, finally back to pre-recession levels LV sales SAAR, millions sold Source: IHS Automotive analysis, monthly data with X12 Seasonal Adjustment

4 Global light vehicle sales outlook sales volume Million units % Greater China North America West Europe South Asia Middle East/Africa Japan/Korea South America Central/East Europe 2015

5 Global sales Million units % 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Year-on-year change February 2015 YTD % Global Change For February 2015, the positive picture continued, as global demand grew 1.3%, with year-to-date demand growing 2.2%, to million units. For 2015, our global sales forecast is set at million units, up by a further 1.7%; this is a mild downgrade compared with the last update. We assume lower oil prices will be a net positive for the auto industry, although clearly not for oil exporters. Some of the recent downgrades to the macroeconomic forecasts particularly developing countries and oil exporters could provide a natural offset on vehicle sales volumes. Until the end of the forecast horizon in 2021, the global light vehicle sales market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 2.7% and approach million units.

6 Global contingency forecast Stronger/weaker economic growth will have significant implications 120,000, ,000, ,000,000 90,000,000 80,000,000 70,000, impact Optimistic: Low oil creates global rise in consumer/business confidence, higher spending, adds 37m vehicle sales to forecast Pessimistic: Oil price snaps back more quickly, euro crisis heats up, global credit confidence falls, removes 45m vehicle sales Baseline Optimistic Pessimistic 60,000,000 50,000, Source: IHS Automotive Q Contingency Forecast

7 Brent blend crude-oil forecast Abundant supply plus weak demand is causing further declines Dollars/barrel Source: IHS Energy

8 Intention to buy in the next six months (Percent Yes) Not just a needs based recovery, but wants driven Conference Board Month Moving Average Actual 8

9 U.S. New Light Vehicle Inventory Days Supply (Days Supply) Inventory is back in balance Light Trucks Cars Months Seasonally Adjusted 9

10 US Light Vehicle Sales (Millions of Units) 18 15% % 13% % 11% % 9% 8 8% Total Volume - L Luxury Market Share - R 10

11 U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Cars vs Trucks (Millions of Units) Cars Light Trucks 11

12 U.S. Sales Manufacturers Market Share (Light Vehicle Share) 24% Market share is wide open and up for grabs 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% GM FORD CHRYSLER/FIAT TOYOTA HONDA NISSAN HYUNDAI/KIA 12

13 U.S. Sales Manufacturers Market Share 6% (Light Vehicle Share) 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% HYUNDAI KIA SUBARU MAZDA MITSUBISHI VW GROUP 13

14 U.S. Car Sales By Segment Millions (Units) Compact Full-Size Mid-Size Sports Small 14

15 U.S. Light Truck Sales By Segment Millions (Units) CUV MPV Full-Size PUP Mid-Size PUP SUV VAN 15

16 NHTSA CAFE History Has Only Recently Begun to Trend toward Higher MPG Targets Two key milestones for the future are the 2016 requirement and then the more difficult requirement 60 CAFÉ Standard (MPG) Decline in the MPG target has happened in the past Cars Trucks Combined 10 0 Model Year Congress establishes CAFE DOT sets truck standard to max feasible DOT relaxes car standard DOT sets car standard to 27.5 mpg Congress freezes truck standards at Copyright 2015 IHS Global Inc. All Rights Reserved. Bush Administration sets new truck targets EISA changes CAFE to new footprint standard present Obama Administration sets new car & truck standards Obama Administration sets new car & truck standards

17 There Are Now Two Targets for US Fuel-Economy Legislation NHTSA MPG and EPA CO 2 Levels mpg mpg g/mile g/mile or 54.5 mpg Organization National Highway Traffic Safety Admin. (NHTSA) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Regulation Limits Measure Credits Fines CAFE 34.1mpg; total US fleet average in MY2016 / 49.6mpg in MY2025 Discrete OEM targets vehicle-size footprint Trading between car and truck fleets FFV credits Possible Greenhouse gas standard (GHG/CO 2 ) 250g/mile total US fleet average in MY2016 / 163g/mile in MY2025 Discrete OEM targets vehicle-size footprint Same as NHTSA, plus additional off-cycle and EV credits Not possible Copyright 2015 IHS Global Inc. All Rights Reserved. NOTE: In the U.S. the MPG equivalent of 54.5 is often referenced in media reports 17

18 The Bulk of US Engines Are Dropping Cylinders While Simultaneously Reducing Displacement IHS forecasts an increase of 4 cylinder engines to nearly 10 million units by cylinder engines also enter the market and grow to 1.6M units in a relatively flat market 8 cylinder engines lose 400K fitments while 6 cylinder engines decline from 5+ million to just over 3 million Average displacement across all numbers of cylinders drops more than 500cc by 2024 The Average moves from 3.1 liters down to just over 2.5 liters Copyright 2015 IHS Global Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18

19 N. America - LV Sales and Production Post Restructuring Millions Sales Production Exports Expansion Localization From , regional sales eclipse output by 27% or 3.7 million units , future sales levels outpace production by less than 7.0% or by ~1 million units Positive sales trajectory tapers after peak in 2017 Long-term output nears 18.5M units far surpasses 16.0M unit pre-2009 levels 19

20 North American Market Structure United States Mexico Canada Change 50% 18 40% 16 30% Output (Millions) % 10% 0% Y-O-Y % Change CAGR 1.2% 6-10% 4-20% CAGR 7.1% % -40% CAGR -4.3% 20

21 North America Light Vehicle Production 2014 vs 2015 OEM 2014 (000s) 2015F (000s) % Units (000s) GM 3,380 3, % -30 Ford 2,940 3, % 196 Chry/Fiat 2,816 2, % -49 Detroit 3 9,136 9, % 117 Toyota 1,986 2, % 51 Honda 1,807 1, % 93 Ren/Nissan 1,743 1, % -9 Hyundai % -29 Asian 4 6,300 6, % 107 VW % -28 BMW % 36 Daimler % 50 German 3 1,197 1, % 57 Others % 112 Total 17.0M 17.4M 2.3% ~ added a substantial 800K to production, 2015 is less Ford will charge ahead w new F-150 Honda just launched production of HR-V VW in dire need of new product, X3 and C-Class boosting BMW and MB No new plants coming into operation in 2015, got to wait until 2016! Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Production Forecast 21

22 Mexico Light Vehicle Production More growth to come (Millions of units) Forecast at risk due to Brazil PROD

23 Mexico Light Vehicle Production By OEM 1,000,000 Units 900, , , , , , , , ,000 0 Ren/Nis GM VW FCA Ford Honda Toyota Hyundai Mazda Daimler BMW

24 North America Light Vehicle Production Exports bolster prospects North American Vehicle Exports (Millions) Mexico Vehicle Exports by Region South America Asia Europe Middle East/Africa North America Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Forecast Greater use of global platforms allows for more export ready product 40+ Free trade agreements drive Mexican output Expansion of luxury segment capability across the region into Mexico SA exports hurt by Brazil and Argentina NA gains 1 million units; followed by SA with 250K; MEA will be 75K; Asia flat; SA gain of 25K 24

25 Global Top 10 Production Countries China China China China 2 Japan United States United States United States 3 United States Japan Japan Japan 4 Germany Germany Germany India 5 South Korea South Korea India Germany 6 India India South Korea Mexico 7 Brazil Mexico Mexico Brazil 8 Spain Brazil Brazil South Korea 9 Mexico Thailand Spain Thailand 10 France Canada Thailand Spain Mexico is definitely on the industry s radar Will continue to ascend among Top 10 in the time period Could build more than Brazil! 25

26 Key Takeaways Global growth is driven by TRIAD as opposed to emerging nations in 2015 US has another solid year, we are now back to business as usual We have only seen the tip of the iceberg on legislation on emissions Luxury Segment is key NAFTA production sees more investment, particularly due to localization Mexican production is at 3 million unit mark quickly ascending to 5 million units! Continues to rely heavily on the US 26

27 Thank you! Muchas Gracias! Muito Obrigado! Guido Vildozo Manager, Latin America Vehicle Sales

28 For more information, please contact IHS Customer Care (IHS CARE) +44 (0)

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