Rice Global E&C Forum Paris, 19 th March 2013 Gordon McManus Senior Analyst Delivering commercial insight
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1 Outlook Click to edit for the Master Global title Downstream style Sector Rice Global E&C Forum Paris, 19 th March 2013 Gordon McManus Senior Analyst
2 Agenda 1 Demand Outlook 2 Global Crude Supply Developments 3 Refining Investments and Product Balances 4 Implications Wood Mackenzie 2
3 Global oil demand is forecast to continue to expand, driven by developing economies Total oil demand in million b/d Year-on-year change in world oil demand OECD China rest non OECD OECD China rest non OECD Wood Mackenzie 3
4 Demand, Mb/d Growth % p.a Transport fuels and petrochemical feedstocks remain the key market drivers. Fuel oil demand is in decline. Global Demand Growth by Product, LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Other Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Growth rate Wood Mackenzie 4
5 Agenda 1 Demand Outlook 2 Global Crude Supply Developments 3 Refining Investments and Product Balances 4 Implications Wood Mackenzie 5
6 Oil Sands Tight Oil The US, and in particular tight oil, dominate non-opec production increases Production increase from Wood Mackenzie 6
7 '000 b/d '000 b/d Tight oil rejuvenates US production Total US liquids supply forecast Q US tight oil forecast Q ,000 5,000 12,000 4,000 10,000 8,000 3,000 6,000 2,000 4,000 1,000 2, Conventional L48 Tight Oil Gulf of Mexico Alaska NGLs Macro Oils Long Term Update November 2012 Source Wood Mackenzie Bakken Eagle Ford Other Established Tight Plays Source Wood Mackenzie Niobrara Bone Springs/Wolfcamp Emerging/New Tight Plays Wood Mackenzie 7
8 Mb/d Mb/d Rail, barge and truck will play a significant role in moving crude for some time to come. The Gulf Coast crude slate will be transformed Clearing Mechanism for Light Sweet Surplus to PADD III Effective call on rail and barge peaks at >400 kb/d in 2015 Growing L48 Domestic Crude Penetration into the PADD III Crude Slate Other Announced Pipelines Keystone XL (Available Light Sweet Capacity) Seaway Reversal (light/sweet capacity) PADD II Surplus Light Sweet ; press searches Heavy Imports Light Imports Medium Imports Domestic All Grades *Pipeline capacities quoted are 50% of total announced capacity reflect estimated light crude service, expect for light crude dedicated lines Wood Mackenzie 8
9 US$2012 /bbl with significant implications for Atlantic Basin refinery competitiveness Brent WTI ($/bbl) Light-Sweet Cracking Gross Margin Comparison 20 Brent WTI ($/bbl) 14 NWE Brent Cracking USGC LLS Cracking Wood Mackenzie 9
10 and implications for global crude trade Changes in Inter-regional Crude Trade Russia North America Latin America Europe North Africa West Africa East Africa Middle East Caspian Asia Decreasing Trade (Mb/d) Increasing Trade (Mb/d) Arrow width proportional to trade volume change Source: IEA; GTIS; Wood Mackenzie 10
11 A shortage of heavy crude develops in the medium term - compared to ideal demand particularly for Asia Global Crude Balance by API Band Supply versus Ideal Demand Regional Heavy Crude Balances Supply versus Ideal Demand Heavy Medium Light North Latin America America Europe Africa FSU Middle East Asia Pacific World Wood Mackenzie 11
12 Million b/d US$/bbl The gains in supply lead to ample OPEC spare productive capacity, so, barring significant political risk, we expect moderate downward pressure on prices OPEC Spare Capacity to 2015 with Brent, WTI and Dubai annual average oil price forecast 7 OPEC Spare Capacity Brent Nominal WTI Nominal Dubai Nominal % of global oil demand 6.1% 5.5% 5.8% 6.1% 6.1% % % 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.5% Wood Mackenzie 12
13 Agenda 1 Demand Outlook 2 Global Crude Supply Developments 3 Refining Investments and Product Balances 4 Implications Wood Mackenzie 13
14 Investment, Mb/d Asia Pacific leads the way in adding new refining capacity Refinery CDU Capacity Change, Asia Pacific Middle East North America Latin America Greater Europe FSU Sub-Saharan Africa New Refineries and Capacity Expansions Capacity Reductions and Refinery Closures Net Capacity Change Wood Mackenzie 14
15 Mb/d Capacity additions are aligned with demand growth to 2018, which implies that existing surplus capacity persists without more capacity rationalisation Global Capacity v Demand Growth Cumulative Capacity growth Cumulative Non Ref Sup growth Cumulative Demand growth Excludes capacity creep and utilisation rate changes Wood Mackenzie 15
16 Non-refinery Supply (Mb/d) Growing NGL production provides increasing volumes of light products Global Supply of Products from NGLs, Naphtha LPG Ethane Wood Mackenzie 16
17 Mt Capacity (kb/d) Russian excise tax changes are promoting upgrading investments, which are primarily hydrocracking and hydrotreatment Estimated Russian Heavy Feedstock Balance Russian Refinery Investments Low Utilisation Mid-Utilisation High Utilisation VAC Catalytic Cracking Hydrocracking Coking Hydrotreatment Gasoline Upgrading Other, IEA OMR Wood Mackenzie 17
18 Increased upgrading capacity will produce more middle distillates Global Upgrading Investments, Global Refined Product Yield, 2012 & 2018 Mb/d % 100% 90% % 20% 80% 70% 60% LPG Naphtha Gasoline % 10% 5% 0% Cat Cracking Hydrocracking Coking Upgrading Capacity Added % of CDU Capacity Added 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 32.2% 33.6% Jet/Kero Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Other Products Refinery Fuel Global refined products yields before any yield shift Wood Mackenzie 18
19 but not enough to meet demand - implying that a global shift in yields is required Change in Product Balances ( ) Before Yield Shift Mt Gasoline goes long as increasing ethanol use, combined with growing refinery supply, outpaces demand growth Surplus Growing deficit of fuel oil as supply is destroyed Deficit Growing deficit of diesel/gasoil due to strong demand growth -50 LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Other Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Wood Mackenzie 19
20 million b/d Large capacity additions in the Middle East will create a growing middle distillate surplus East of Suez East of Suez Capacity v Demand East of Suez Product Balances Mb/d Surplus Deficit LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kero Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil Capacity Additions Non-Refinery Supply Demand Wood Mackenzie 20
21 Balances (kb/d) US trade balances swing to surplus across all products Total US oil product balances Surplus 2,000 LPG Naphtha Gasoline Jet/Kerosene Diesel/Gasoil Fuel Oil 1,500 1, ,000-1,500-2,000 Deficit Wood Mackenzie 21
22 million b/d kb/d European refining capacity has been rationalised, but a large gap between supply and demand persists as do Europe s large product imbalances Europe Refining Capacity and Utilisation Europe Product Balances % 1,200 1,000 Surplus % 80% 78% % % % 70% ,000 Deficit Refinery Capacity Total Demand Average Utilisation Gasoline Diesel/Gasoil Wood Mackenzie 22
23 Who in Europe is likely to close? s Refinery Evaluation Model Wood Mackenzie 23
24 Agenda 1 Demand Outlook 2 Global Crude Supply Developments 3 Refining Investments and Product Balances 4 Implications Wood Mackenzie 24
25 Diverging demand and supply trends start to challenge typical project approaches to success in the Downstream industry Demand growth is strongest in the middle of the barrel Rapid growth in tight oil production in the US contributes to a lightening global crude slate Access to advantaged crude becomes key to refinery competitiveness in the Atlantic basin Complex new refineries and numerous planned upgrading projects cause global demand for heavier crudes to outpace supply Light-heavy crude differentials are expected to tighten Growing NGL production increases the supply of light products Upgrading projects in Russia will reduce the availability of heavy feedstocks to refiners in other regions Wood Mackenzie 25
26 Wood Mackenzie Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by Wood Mackenzie Limited for delivery at the Rice Global E&C Forum, Paris on 19 th March It has not been prepared for the benefit of any particular attendee and may not be relied upon by any attendee or other third party. If, notwithstanding the foregoing, this presentation is relied upon by any person, Wood Mackenzie Limited does not accept, and disclaims, all liability for loss and damage suffered as a result. The information contained in these slides may be retained by attendees. However, these slides and the contents of this presentation may not be disclosed to any other person or published by any means without Wood Mackenzie Limited's prior written permission. Wood Mackenzie 26
27 Global Contact Details Europe +44 (0) Americas Asia Pacific Website Global Offices Australia Brazil Canada China India Indonesia Japan Malaysia Russia Singapore South Korea United Arab Emirates United Kingdom United States Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: Wood Mackenzie 27
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