Technology metals scarcity

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Ira Doyle
7 years ago
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1 Technology metals scarcity Marc Grynberg, CEO Econopolis 24 May 2011

Umicore is a global leader in automotive catalysts for passenger cars key materials for rechargeable batteries used in hybrid & electric cars and portable electronics germanium

2 Umicore is a global leader in automotive catalysts for passenger cars key materials for rechargeable batteries used in hybrid & electric cars and portable electronics germanium substrates and other materials which are used in new PV technologies... recycling precious metals from old mobile phones, laptops, electronic scrap and spent catalyst material 2

3 Recognized for leadership in sustainable development 3

4 Key figures 2010 Turnover 9.7bn Revenues 2.0bn REBIT 342 m REBITDA 469 m ROCE 17,5 % EPS 2,33 / share Dividend 0,80 / share Colleagues Sites 78

5 What are technology metals? Metals used in hi-tech applications, especially in clean-tech and renewable energy Umicore metals H He Li Be B C N O F Ne Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Rb Cs K Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Ba La- Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Ca Ac- Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Xe Rn 5

6 What are technology metals? Metals used in Batteries for hybrid and electric vehicles H He Li Be B C N O F Ne Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Rb Cs K Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Ba La- Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Ca Ac- Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Xe Rn 6

7 What are technology metals? Metals used in Fuel cells H He Li Be B C N O F Ne Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Rb Cs K Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Ba La- Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Ca Ac- Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Xe Rn 7

8 What are technology metals? Metals used in Emission abatement H He Li Be B C N O F Ne Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Rb Cs K Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Ba La- Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Ca Ac- Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Xe Rn 8

9 What are technology metals? Metals used in Photovoltaics H He Li Be B C N O F Ne Na Mg Al Si P S Cl Ar K Ca Sc Ti V Cr Mn Fe Co Ni Cu Zn Ga Ge As Se Br Kr Rb Cs K Sr Y Zr Nb Mo Tc Ru Rh Pd Ag Cd In Sn Sb Te I Ba La- Lu Hf Ta W Re Os Ir Pt Au Hg Tl Pb Bi Po At Ca Ac- Lr Rf Db Sg Bh Hs Mt Xe Rn 9

10 Recent boom in demand for most technology metals 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mine production since 1980 / since 1900 % mined in % mined in % mined in % mined in Re Ga In Ru Pd Rh Ir REE Si Pt Ta Li Se Ni Co Ge Cu Bi Ag Au REE = Rare Earth Elements 10

11 An example: indium 2010 indium total world consumption ~1,000 tonnes/yr PV Semiconductors Solders and alloys Displays Based on Umicore scenario for PV: 80 GW/y in 2020, 35% share Thin Film PV 11

12 An example: indium 2020 indium total world consumption ~2,050 tonnes/yr PV Semiconductors Solders and alloys Displays This scenario will require 56% recycling rate for indium Based on Umicore scenario for PV: 80 GW/y in 2020, 35% share Thin Film PV 12

13 How scarce is rare? 13

14 How scarce is rare? Quite common (more so than Cu) Highly dissipated Main deposits found in S.America Li 14

15 How scarce is rare? Found in trace amounts in lead and zinc ores In 15

16 How scarce is rare? Geographically concentrated deposits Found mainly in South Africa, Russia, Zimbabwe Pt 16

17 How scarce is rare? Most viable deposits currently exist in China Rare earths 17

18 Scarcity we have been here before emerging market growth BHP Billiton, May

Metal scarcity issues Absolute metal scarcity Gradual depletion of economically mineable resources Limited number of highly concentrated sources Smart use of metals (Reduce Reuse Recycle) allows

19 Metal scarcity issues Absolute metal scarcity Gradual depletion of economically mineable resources Limited number of highly concentrated sources Smart use of metals (Reduce Reuse Recycle) allows decoupling of metal consumption from GDP Structural metal scarcity Coupled production of technology metals (e.g. In, Pd, ) coming as by-product of base metal mining (e.g. Cu, Pb, ) Smarter use of base metals creates paradox for technology metals, as relatively more of these are needed with growing GDP GDP Relative resource demand 25 years Resource demand Geo-political metal issues, similar to oil REE in China PGM in Southern Africa Lithium in the Andes 19

20 Unlike oil, metals can be infinitely recycled a) Mobile phones ~10 bn units produced and not recycled X 250 mg Ag 2500 t Ag X 24 mg Au 240 t Au X 9 mg Pd 90 t Pd b) PCs & laptops ~1 bn units in use and not recycled X1000 mg Ag X 220 mg Au 1000 t Ag 220 t Au X 80 mg Pd 240 t Pd a+b) Urban mine Versus annual mining production 3500 t Ag 17% 460 t Au 19% 330 t Ag 150% ~10 bn Li-Ion batteries X 3.8 g Co 38,000 t Co ~0.4 bn Li-ion batteries X 65 g Co 26,000 t Co 75,000 t Co 85% Tiny metal content per piece Significant total volume 20

21 Resource efficiency is needed to deal with the scarcity of technology metals Critical for clean-tech / renewable energy Demand is growing: Global growth Demand for technology metals well above GDP Limited substitution possibilities Supply is limited Worldwide primary supply is limited Coupling with base metals further limits availability Mining creates geopolitical dependence Short term supply often impacted by speculation on commodities RECYCLING is essential 21

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B I N G O B I N G O. Hf Cd Na Nb Lr. I Fl Fr Mo Si. Ho Bi Ce Eu Ac. Md Co P Pa Tc. Uut Rh K N. Sb At Md H. Bh Cm H Bi Es. Mo Uus Lu P F. Hf Cd Na Nb Lr Ho Bi Ce u Ac I Fl Fr Mo i Md Co P Pa Tc Uut Rh K N Dy Cl N Am b At Md H Y Bh Cm H Bi s Mo Uus Lu P F Cu Ar Ag Mg K Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility - Office of cience ducation