University of Denver. Dividend Capital Research
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1 Glenn R. Mueller, Ph.D. Professor University of Denver Franklin L. Burns School of Real Estate & Construction Management & Real Estate Investment Strategist Dividend Capital Research
2 Occupancy Market Cycle Quadrants Phase 2 - Expansion Phase 3 - Hypersupply Demand/Supply Equilibrium Point Long Term Occupancy Average Phase - Recovery Phase 4 - Recession Source: Mueller, Real Estate Finance 995 Time
3 Occupancy Long Term Average Occupancy -3.0% % 0.3% Historic National Office Rental Growth.0%.7% 4 2.7% % 6.4% 0.5% % % 0.0% 30 Year Cycle - Periods % 3.6% 3.3% % Time
4 Denver NON-AGR. EMPLOY. (000)
5 Denver Office Occupancy Denver Office Rent Growth
6 Office Market Cycle FORECAST 3rd Quarter, 205 Estimates Top Markets = 50% of all 54 largest markets = 0.25% Emp & 0.86% Pop growth Second Tier 7 Markets = 27% of 54 largest markets = 0.86% Emp &.23% Pop growth Chicago Long Island Los Angeles Milwaukee St. Louis Wash DC 2 3 Albuquerque Cincinnati Detroit East Bay Hartford+2 Kansas City Norfolk San Antonio 4 N. New Jersey Atlanta Stamford Cleveland Denver Ft. Lauderdale+ Houston Indianapolis Las Vegas+ Memphis Orange County Baltimore Boston Dallas FW Jacksonville Minneapolis New Orleans Charlotte Columbus Miami Palm Beach Philadelphia Phoenix Richmond Sacramento San Diego San Jose Seattle Tampa NATION Oklahoma City Orlando Pittsburgh Riverside New York Portland Raleigh-Durham San Francisco+ 8 9 Austin Honolulu Nashville+ Salt Lake 0 Source: Mueller, LT Average Occupancy 4 5 6
7 Denver INDUSTRIAL Occupancy Denver INDUSTRIAL Rent Growth
8 2 3 Richmond Long Island 4 Industrial Market Cycle FORECAST Hartford Milwaukee New Orleans+ Oklahoma City Orlando Philadelphia Phoenix Wash DC 5 Norfolk Orange County Sacramento Stamford 3rd Quarter, 205 Estimates Charlotte+ Cincinnati Columbus- Ft. Lauderdale+ Miami Minneapolis Pittsburgh NATION 8 Atlanta Boston Baltimore Chicago Cleveland Detroit East Bay Jacksonville Kansas City Las Vegas Memphis+ Nashville New York Raleigh-Durham St. Louis+ Tampa Houston Indianapolis N. New Jersey San Antonio San Diego Top 2 Markets = 50% of all 54 largest markets Second Tier 7 Markets = 27% of all 54 largest markets Austin Dallas FW Honolulu Portland Riverside Seattle Denver Los Angeles+ Palm Beach+ Salt Lake San Francisco+ San Jose 2 Source: Mueller, LT Average Occupancy 5 6
9 Denver APT Occupancy Denver APT Rent Growth
10 APARTMENT ABSORPTION (units) APARTMENT COMP. (units)
11 LT Average Occupancy 2 3 Apartment Market Cycle FORECAST 4 5 3rd Quarter, 205 Estimates 6 Detroit 7 Las Vegas Honolulu 8 9 Source: Mueller, 204 Baltimore Cincinnati East Bay Milwaukee New York Sacramento- San Diego- 0 Riverside+3 Atlanta Boston Chicago Columbus- Dallas FW Hartford Jacksonville Long Island Los Angeles Miami 2 Charlotte Cleveland Ft. Lauderdale Houston Indianapolis Kansas City Memphis Minneapolis Nashville New Orleans- N. New Jersey Philadelphia Pittsburgh Portland Richmond Salt Lake San Jose NATION 3 Austin Denver Orlando Raleigh-Durham Seattle Wash DC Norfolk Oklahoma City Orange County Palm Beach Phoenix San Antonio San Francisco Stamford St. Louis Tampa
12 Denver Retail Occupancy Denver Retail Rent Growth
13 Retail Market Cycle FORECAST 3rd Quarter, 205 Estimates Atlanta Columbus+ Dallas FW Las Vegas Milwaukee Nashville N. New Jersey Philadelphia Phoenix Sacramento Cleveland Detroit St. Louis New Orleans+ Orlando Palm Beach Tampa+ NATION 6 Chicago Cincinnati Kansas City Memphis Norfolk Oklahoma City Orange County Richmond Riverside 7 Charlotte Ft. Lauderdale Hartford Indianapolis Jacksonville San Antonio Stamford Baltimore Houston+ Long Island Los Angeles Raleigh-Durham Seattle Denver Portland 8 9 Austin East Bay+ Minneapolis Pittsburgh San Diego San Jose Wash DC LT Average 0 Source: Mueller, 204 Boston Honolulu Miami New York Salt Lake San Francisco 2 Occupancy
14 80.0% 5.0% 75.0% 0.0% 70.0% 5.0% 65.0% 0.0% 60.0% -5.0% 55.0% -0.0% 50.0% -5.0% Denver HOTEL Occupancy Denver HOTEL Rent Growth
15 Norfolk 2 3 Cincinnati Hartford Richmond 4 Hotel Market Cycle FORECAST 5 Columbus Jacksonville Riverside Sacramento San Antonio Stamford 3rd Quarter, 205 Estimates Dallas FW Oakland St. Louis Salt Lake Kansas City+ Memphis Oklahoma City Phoenix Raleigh-Durham 6 7 Baltimore Cleveland Detroit Indianapolis Milwaukee Orange County Charlotte+ Las Vegas+ Nashville New Orleans Wash DC NATION LT Average Occupancy N. New Jersey Philadelphia Atlanta+ Chicago Houston Los Angeles Minneapolis Tampa+ Austin Boston Denver East Bay Ft. Lauderdale Honolulu Orlando Pittsburgh+3 Portland San Diego+ San Francisco San Jose Seattle Long Island Miami New York Palm Beach Source: Mueller,
16 Property Price Cycle Real Capital Analytics Real Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) Current Price Recovery from 2007 Peak % CBD Office 08% Apartment 6% Retail 84% Industrial 90% Suburban Office 80% Source: Real Capital Analytics, Inc., September 204.
17 Major Market Pricing RCA CPPI Major Markets % of 07 Peak San Francisco 39% Los Angeles 24% New York 22% Wash DC03% Texas 02% Boston 00% Chicago 89%
18 Second Tier Market Pricing RCA CPPI 2 nd Tier Markets % of 07 Peak Denver % Hartford 06% Seattle 04% Philly 00% Miami 85% Atlanta 75% Tampa 75% Orlando 73% Jacksonville 67% Las Vegas 6%
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