We can go to the Pathway for the 2 degree global target - China s CO2 emission -

Transcription

1 We can go to the Pathway for the 2 degree global target - China s CO2 emission - Jiang Kejun Energy Research Institute, China AMPERE Project meeting January 21, ERI, China

2 Review for recent CO2 emission scenarios 2

3 Keyword: Transition mitigation to reach some climate change targets 15 Category I (< 4 ppm CO 2 ) 15 Category II (< 4-44 ppm CO 2 ) 15 Category III (< ppm CO 2 ) Emissions (GtC) without neg. emissions with neg. emissions N= N= N=

4 Transformation: CO2 emission, a rapid change 14 CO2 Emission in China 12 Mt CO Baseline LC ELC 2Degree

5 What s the future of China s low carbon policy: key factors Economic structure optimization policies Energy efficiency policies Renewable energy/nuclear power generation oriented policies CCS Low carbon consumption/ lifestyle Land use emission reduction policies: so far relatively poor Climate change target: China is key part of that Can we pay for it? Cost and benefit 5

6 Transformation: Energy System 6

7 Transformation: Power generation 3 Power Generation Capacity 万千瓦 Biomass Solar Wind Nuclear Hydro N.Gas Oil Coal

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9 7 6 Power generation capacity with CCS GW NGCC IGCC Fuel Cell IGCC US Critical Super Critical 9

10 Annual Investment for CCS in China million yuan

11 Roadmap for Electric Vehicle Development Technology Electric Vehicle Development Objective The Amount of Electric Vehicle(1,) Few , 9,4 Quantity of Electric Few Vehicle Market Per Year(1,) Electric Vehicle Technology Advance The Maximum Speed(km/h) Cruising Range(km) Power Consumption Measuring on Onehundred-kilometer Technology Advance Energy Density(Wh/kg, 9-125Wh/kg 15 Wh/kg;15 Wh/L 225 Wh/kg;2 5 Wh/kg;46 Wh/L 7 Wh/kg Wh/L) Wh/L Total Energy Pack Lifespan 1 times 15 times 3 times 38 times 38 times Cost(Yuan/kWh) Charging Station Technology and Construction Process Charging Station 325 new charging 4,325 new charging stations 1, new Development stations and and 2,84, charging piles charging stations Planning(National Grid 1,87, charging and 3,, and South Grid) piles charging piles Charging Station System Conventional Conventional charging as Conventional Improve charging Controlled-charging Construction Process charging facility primary; fast charging and charging as station network system technology makes (charging battery replacement primary; fast and lay out charging electric vehicle be piles)construction; demonstration; construct fast charging and battery system on the charging friendly-power battery replacement charging and battery replacement as cruising range of consumption load; mode demonstration; replacement station mainly supplementary to electric vehicle per solar energy charging mainly in residency at the airport, railway form an embryo for time; solar energy stations account for 5- districts or parking station, hospital, shopping charging station charging station 1% of market share; of large office mall or petrol gas station network system demonstration; mobile mobile charging buildings and other public places charging station stations are applied. 11 demonstration

12 SO2 Emission NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario MtSO2 1ton Black Carbon Emission in China BaU LC ELC BaU LowCarbon Mt Mton PM2.5 Emission Mercury Emission Other Power generation Other Power generation 5. Transformation: Air pollution ton Other 2. Power generation

13 Challenges for short term energy system in China We are in a rapid change period, energy system need to response right now. But it is difficult to make change due to inertia. It could happen in decades in other countries, but maybe 5 to 1 years in China Coal peak before 215? Coal fired power plant peak by 213? Much more natural gas demand Energy pricing should be higher, and need public to accept(public education) There are still more space for new policies It could be a big movement in China s energy system, all aspects 13

14 The expected big changes in energy system in China Coal consumption start to decrease, coal industry should be ready for it, and make own long-term strategy: local manufacture, export/import, security, clean coal use. Much more natural gas demand, need to work out for the supply Much faster progress on renewable energy, both centralized and distributed Grid should be reconstructed to support the system Energy price increase, to cover energy environment externality. Large scale of nuclear in Much lower growth rate for energy demand in China 14

15 Renewable Energy Renewable Energy Planning 26: wind 3GW, Solar 2GW by Energy Bureau: Wind 8WG 21 Energy Planning: Wind 15 GW, Solar 2GW by , the 12 th Five Year Plan: 2GW of solar PV by 215, 15GW wind February 213, 35GW PV by 215 Now: Wind 2GW to 3GW, Solar 5WG to 12 GW Based on the conclusion from Chinese Academy for Engineering, grid in China could adopt these renewable energy power generation in short term. By Nov.213, the plan on renewable energy development could be revised again. 15

16 Transformation: Technologies Technology learning curve 1.2 Index, 25= Year Fuel Cell IGCC Hydrogen Car Poly Generation Solar Thermal Power PV 4th Generation Nuclear Off shore wind on shore wind Biomass Power Advanced NGCC Electic Car CCS Solar 21 Wind 21 CCS PostC CCS Enduse LED Lighting By 22, Wind 2GW to 25GW, Solar 5WG Price: US$38 Subsidy: US$15(Shanghai), no need to apply number plate(cost US$1) US$18(Beijing), no need to apply number plate(by Oct. 212, 1.1 million people apply for 2number plates per month),

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19 The New Five Year Plan on Air Pollution Control From 213 to 217 Target: 3% improvement of air pollution A package of policies In which: reducing coal use in key areas including Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei region, Yangtze Delta Regions, Pearl River Delta Region Clean oil supply for vehicle, upgrade emission standard and oil quality Regulation on diffusion on high efficiency cars 19

20 R&D Expenditures in China ^8 Yuan US R&D expenditures in

21 6 GDP in China, current price 5 4 1^8Yuan

22 Investment in Energy Industry in China Energy Expenditures in China 1^8Yuan BaU HLC HELC LLC 1^8Yuan BaU HLC HELC Year Year Addtional Investment in end use sectors in ELC GDP Loss, % 1^8 Yuan % 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.% 65ppm 55ppm 45ppm Per Capita Carbon Intensity Industry Transport Building Total Year.% 1.%