Hidrobreking in Suid-Afrika: ʼn Ekonomiese perspektief REQUIER WAIT RIAAN ROSSOUW
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1 Hidrobreking in Suid-Afrika: ʼn Ekonomiese perspektief REQUIER WAIT RIAAN ROSSOUW
2 Inleiding Karoo het na beraming 485 "tcf"-skaliegas. In vergelyking met Libië 290 tcf; Algerië 231 tcf. SA het aanvanklike moratorium gedeeltelik opgehef. Verdere ondersoek is nodig om ʼn meer akkurate waarde van reserwes te bepaal; 485 tcf?
3 Hidrobreking in Suid-Afrika Baie beweer dit kan ʼn "game changer" vir die SAenergiesektor wees. Onsekerheid: Omvang van ekonomiese voordele en omgewingskoste.
4 Hidrobreking binne konteks Verskeidenheid verslae {VSA & Brittanje} het al probeer om voordele en {in mindere mate} die nadele te kwantifiseer. Kritiek: Meerderheid van studies is deur industrie geborg. Joernaalpublikasies: Kinnaman (2011) gee ʼn goeie oorsig van bogenoemde studies. Weber (2012): Ex-post teenoor Ex ante.
5 Hidrobreking binne konteks Die debat is dikwels gepolariseerd: Ondersteuners beklemtoon slegs die voordele. Opponente beklemtoon slegs die nadele.
6 Hidrobreking binne konteks Ekonomiese impak van die Karoo se skaliegas? Econometrix-studie: "Karoo Shale Gas Report" Wait & Rossouw: "On the alleged economic benefits of shale gas extraction" Fokus: Voordele Nadele Vergelyk resultate met Econometrix-verslag.
7 Voordele Werkskepping, toename in inkome, owerheidsinkome en ekonomiese groei. Alternatiewe [skoner*] bron van energie/plaasvervanger vir steenkool. Volgens Wang et al. (2011) het skaliegas oor die langtermyn ʼn laer koolstofvoetspoor as steenkool. Moontlike indirekte impak: laer vraag na steenkool in energie-opwekking. * Daar is kontrasterende gevolgtrekkings in die literatuur, byvoorbeeld: Howarth, Santoro, & Ingraffea (2011); Cathles, Brown, Taam, & Hunter (2011) en Howarth, Santoro, & Ingraffea (2012). NB: Infrastruktuur in VSA teenoor Suid-Afrika?
8 Nadele: Negatiewe eksternaliteite Agteruitgang van paaie toename in verkeer van vragmotors en toerusting. Grondgebruik: "drilling pads", prosessering en vervoer van gas. Gebruik van water, "Fracking Fluid"*, besoedeling van grondwater. Lugbesoedeling. *Gebruik van vloeibare koolstofdioksied (CO 2 )?
9 Modellering: Impak Gebruik algemene ewewigmodellering {"CGE"}: Impak: toename in produksie van gas. Gebaseer op struktuur van ekonomie en "skakels" tussen industrieë. NB: resultate is op ʼn model met sekere aannames gebaseer. Twee moontlike scenario's: tcf (reserwes) tcf (reserwes).
10 Resultate Econometrix-studie "CGE"-resultate Kategorie 20 tcf 50 tcf Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Potensiële leeftyd van hulpbron (jare) Potensiële bydrae tot BBP (%) Potensiële bydrae tot BBP (ZAR miljard) Potensiële bydrae tot werkskepping , ,000 1,441 2,471
11 Gevolgtrekkings Op hierdie stadium is slegs ʼn ex ante-analise moontlik, gebaseer op geskatte reserwes en gaspryse. In die tussentyd kan die negatiewe eksternaliteite nie geïgnoreer word nie. Enige bespreking van moontlike voordele MOET hierdie potensiële nadele in berekening bring. Regulasie is kritiek. Gebruik van vloeibare CO 2 kan water-/besoedelingsprobleem kortwiek.
12 Dankie vir u aandag
13 Bronne Econometrix, Karoo shale gas report: Special considerations surrounding potential shale gas resources in the southern Karoo of South Africa. Available at: < downloads/aboutshell/ econometrix/econometrix_report.pdf> (accessed ). Cathles, L. M., Brown, L., Taam, M. & Hunter, A commentary on The greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas in shale formations by R.W. Howarth, R. Santoro, and Anthony Ingraffea. Climatic Change, Commentary. doi: /s
14 Bronne Howarth, R. W., Santoro, R. & Ingraffea, A Methane and the greenhouse-gas footprint of natural gas from shale formations a letter. Climate Change, 106: doi: /s Howarth, R. W., Santoro, R. & Ingraffea, A Venting and leaking of methane from shale gas development: response to Cathles et al. Climatic Change, 113: doi: /s
15 Bronne Kinnaman, T.C The economic impact of shale gas extraction: a review of existing studies, Ecological Economics, 70: Wait, R. & Rossouw, R On the alleged economic benefits of shale gas extraction in the southern Karoo of South Africa. Submitted for publication to the Southern African Business Review. {Awaiting response}. Wang, J., Ryan, D. & Anthony, E.J Reducing the greenhouse gas footprint of shale gas, Energy Policy, 39 (12): Weber, J.G The effects of a natural gas boom on employment and income in Colorado, Texas, and Wyoming, Energy Economics. (2012), doi: /j.eneco
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