Comparing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable energy options in the transport sector

Transcription

1 Press workshop on sustainable energy solutions «Renewables for the transport sector which routes are open?» AEE Brussels 31 March 2015 Comparing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of renewable energy options in the transport sector Patrick R. Schmidt (Dipl.-Ing.) LBST Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Munich Germany FINAL

2 Content LBST profile Greenhouse gas emissions Example scenarios 2

3 LBST Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Company profile Independent expert for sustainable energy and mobility for over 30 years Bridging technology, markets, and policy Renewable energies, fuels, infrastructure Technology-based strategy consulting, System and technology studies, Sustainability assessment Global and long term perspective Rigorous system approach thinking outside the box Serving international clients in industry, finance, politics, and NGOs Selected studies German Mobility & Fuels Strategy (MKS) EC-JRC/EUCAR/CONCAWE Well-to-Tank Analysis of Transport Fuels European Parliament, ITRE & ENVI Committee German Research Association for Combustion Engines (FVV) 3

4 Content LBST profile Greenhouse gas emissions Example scenarios 4

5 Significant efforts required to achieve GHG reduction targets Demanding reduction targets for greenhouse gas and selected pollutant emissions well-to-use At the same time, rising global energy demands (in absolute terms) Critical for staying within the reduction corridor: System transformation may take significant time EU regulatory framework is currently in a state of stall/move, and blurry post-2020 EU Fuel Quality Directive (FQD) and EU Renewables Energy Directive (RED) under review for years now National infrastructure plans to be developed for EU Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive (AFID) Greenhouse gas emission reduction targets (base year 1990) --- EU, Germany --- IPCC 5

6 Renewable electricity Hydrocracking Sustainable biomass Transportation fuels from biomass and renewable electricity Many routes lead to Rome, and there is no optimal way Primary energy Conversion Fuels Plant oils (rape, soy), Fats, Oil mill + raffination Hydrotreating HVO/ HEFA Plant oil EE-H 2 Wood, Lignocellul., Black liquor Organic wastes EE-H 2 Fermentation (Biogas) Gasification + FT synthesis CH 4 Reforming + FT synthesis BTL Bio-GTL Gasoline Kerosene Diesel Wind CO 2 CO 2 absorption (e.g. from the air) Inverse CO-shift + FT synthesis PTL Hydrogen Solar Water, Geothermal Electrolysis (RES-H 2 ) CO 2 Methanol synthesis Olefin synthesis + Oligomerisation + Hydrotreating RES-H 2 RES-H 2 RES-H 2 PTL Renewable electricity BEV Electricity LBST,

7 Gasoline Diesel CNG Plant oil (Biodiesel) rape Ethanol wheat Ethanol straw CNG biogas maize whole plant CNG biogas organic waste Renewable electricity Electricity mix EU RE CGH2 (onsite electrolysis) LBST, RE CNG RE gasoline RE diesel Greenhouse gas emissions (g CO 2 -equiv./km) Reference vehicle: C segment, e.g. VW Golf Source: LBST based on data from RED, JRC/EUCAR/CONCAWE GHG emissions of fossil and renewable fuels well-to-wheel 160 Internal combustion engine (ICE) hybrid Electric motor ICE hybrid Crude-oil from tarsand Conventional crude-oil Pipeline 7000 km Pipeline 2500 km Destillers dried grain => Fodder Natural gas CHP Destillers grain => Biogas Biogas CHP Fossil Biomass Power Power-to-Gas Power-to-Liquid

8 Content LBST profile Greenhouse gas emissions Example scenarios 8

9 [%] of arable land in EU 27 Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH (LBST), How much EU land is (ceteris paribus) needed to fulfil the EU- RED 10% renewable fuel target in transport by 2020? RME Ethanol / wheat BTL / SRF FAME / algae EE-PTL EE-CNG CGH2 Electricity EE-PTL EE-CNG CGH2 Electricity Biomass PV Wind Land cover: ~99% Land cover: ~30% Land cover: ~1% With biomass pathways, substitution of animal feed taken into account. Electricity and electricity-based fuels have low land area requirements. The well-to-tank efficiency of PtX is misleading when compared with biofuels. Source: LBST, based on data from RED, JRC/EUCAR/CONCAWE 9

10 MKS, EE Stromerzeugung Technical potential for renewable electricity in Germany (conservative approach) 1200 TWh/a 4320 PJ/a 1000 TWh/a 800 TWh/a 600 TWh/a 3600 PJ/a 2880 PJ/a 2160 PJ/a Potential: 465 TWh el /a (1674 PJ el /a) renewable electricity for transporation 400 TWh/a 200 TWh/a 1440 PJ/a 720 PJ/a Electricity consumption: 535 TWh/a (1271 PJ/a) 0 TWh/a EE-Strom für Kraftstoff Stromnachfrage 2012 EE-Stromerzeugung 1990 EE-Stromerzeugung 2012 EE-Strompotenzial (technisch) Geothermie 0 TWh/a < 1 TWh/a 15 TWh/a Photovoltaik 0 TWh/a 26 TWh/a 284 TWh/a Wind Offshore 0 TWh/a < 1 TWh/a 280 TWh/a Wind Onshore 0 TWh/a 51 TWh/a 390 TWh/a Wasserkraft 20 TWh/a 22 TWh/a 25 TWh/a 20 TWh/a 100 TWh/a TWh/a EE-Strompotenzial Verwendung 465 TWh/a 535 TWh/a 0 PJ/a 10 Source: LBST for the German Mobility and Fuels Strategy (MFS)

11 Fuel/drivetrain choices and fuel demand 3 scenarios Transportation demand in Germany: Traffic Prognosis 2030 Technical renewable electricity potential in Germany: ~1000 TWh/a TWh / a Technical RE potential Germany CNG / LNG without PtCH 4 CNG / LNG with PtCH 4 RE PtCH4 + FCEVs Scen. CNG 1 Scen. PtCH 4 2 Scen. BEV+ 3 PtH Road transport + inland shipping Methane in transport* H2 in transport* Electricity (direct) in transport* Other sectors (Industrie, Haushalte,...) * The scenarios exclusively explored road transport and inland navigation. 11 Source: MFS PtG study (2014 w/ VP2030)

12 Key messages fuel for thought Blind spots result from focusing environmental assessments on greenhouse gases only Biodiversity, water, criteria pollutants, social aspects, etc There is no single optimal fuel with regard to technology, economics, and ecology Diversification of fuel/drivetrain portfolio in the midterm, downsizing, and electrification Efficiency measures alone will not do for achieving greenhouse gas targets Renewables, sufficiency Societal question: Where shall the valuable (but limited) biomass go to? Several (cascading) uses Renewable electricity and fuels derived from renewable electricity, e.g. hydrogen, synthetic methane or power-to-liquids, provide both large quantity and high emission reduction potentials Accountability towards environmental targets must be given There is a trade-off between fuels, infrastructures, and availability: Renewable (drop-in) fuels use already established infrastructures but limited availability (i.e. rising fuel production costs) Renewable power-to-gas (hydrogen, methane) as well the direct use of renewable electricity both provide very high efficiency and availability potentials but require a switch of infrastructures and drivetrains (i.e. investments) 12

13 Contact Patrick Schmidt (Dipl.-Ing.) LBST Ludwig-Bölkow-Systemtechnik GmbH Daimlerstr Munich Germany T: +49 (89) E: W: 13