Improving Market Efficiency for Syrah Wines

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1 Lyon, France, 13 & 14 May 2008 Improving Market Efficiency for Syrah Wines ITALIAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR EFFICIENT MARKETING STRATEGIES Antonio Seccia a, Gianluca Nardone b, Antonio Stasi b a University of Bari, Italy b University of Foggia,Italy

2 SYRAH IN ITALY Syrah coverage per Italian Region (hectares) Regions Hectares % SICILIA ,4 TOSCANA 216 3,9 PUGLIA 119 2,1 LAZIO 70 1,3 SARDEGNA 53 0,9 VENETO 25 0,4 ABRUZZO 18 0,3 EMILIA ROMAGNA 17 0,3 UMBRIA 10 0,2 LOMBARDIA 7 0,1 TOT ,0 Source: Agea, 2006.

3 WINES MONOVARIETAL SYRAH or BLENDED WITH French varieties: Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Italian varieties: Sangiovese Nero d'avola Corvina Barbera

4 Doc (Vqprd) wines blended with Syrah DOC wines Minimum % for the blend Max % for the blend Contea di Sclafani Syrah Contea di Sclafani Syrah Riserva Contessa Entellina rosato Contessa Entellina rosso Contessa Entellina rosso riserva Delia Nivolelli Novello Rosso Delia Nivolelli Rosso Delia Nivolelli Syrah Menfi Bonera Menfi Bonera Riserva Menfi Rosso Menfi Rosso Riserva Menfi Syrah Valdichiana Rosato 0 50 Valdichiana Rosso 0 50

5 List of IGT wines blended with Syrah Region IGT Name of the wine Colli della Toscana centrale Syrah novello Toscana Colli della Toscana centrale Syrah Toscana Frusinate o del Frusinate Syrah Lazio Frusinate o del Frusinate Syrah frizzante Lazio Frusinate o del Frusinate Syrah novello Lazio Maremma Toscana Syrah Toscana Maremma Toscana Syrah novello Toscana Sicilia Syrah Sicilia Sicilia Syrah frizzante Sicilia Sicilia Syrah novello Sicilia Toscano o Toscana Syrah Toscana Toscano o Toscana Syrah abboccato Toscana Toscano o Toscana Syrah novello Toscana Valle Belice Syrah Sicilia Valle Belice Syrah frizzante Sicilia Valle Belice Syrah novello Sicilia

6 AIM OF THE WORK ANALYZE THE MARKET OF SYRAH IN ITALY BY STUDING DEMAND AND SUPPLY

7 AIM OF THE WORK DEMAND: EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BY AN ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY SUPPLY: DESCRIPTION BY DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS ANALYSIS

8 Empirical analysis of demand: DATA

9 ACNielsen home scan panel data Recorded through scanner technology 6,000 Italian household At home consumption Demographically balanced Dec Dec.2004

10 ACNielsen home scan panel data: WINE SUBSAMPLE Color Packaging Appellation Day of purchase Varietal characterization Retailer Organic nature of the wine Amount purchased per week Region of production Trade mark Volume Expenditure per purchase Promotional activities

11 EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF SUPPLY: DATA

12 LUCA MARONI WINE GUIDE DATA WINES DESCRIPTION BASED ON INDECES IP (Indice di Piacevolezza): Pleasantness Index IVP (Indice di Valore-Prezzo): Value Price index IQQ (Indice di Qualità-Quantità): Quality - Quantity Index ACQ (Indice di Acquistabilità): Purchesability Index

13 IP (Indice di Piacevolezza): Pleasantness Index Consistency: Obtained by summing 3 basic indices: measure of the amount of sensations while tasting the wine Balance: equality between smoothness in taste and sourness plus bitterness evaluation Integrity: integrity refers to the clean sensation when appreciating the fruit taste

14 IVP (Indice di Valore-Prezzo): Value Price Index Ratio between the IP Index and the price of the wine sold (referred to a 0.75 litre volume bottle) Classes of Price A) from 0 to EUR 5 B) from 5 to EUR 10 C) from 10 to 15 D) from 15 to 20 E) from 20 to 50 F) above EUR 50.

15 IQQ (Indice di Qualità-Quantità): Quality - Quantity Index Relation between the IP Index and the number of bottles produced This is a measure of producers capability to develop high quality wines and make them available for a large share of consumers.

16 ACQ (Indice di Acquistabilità): Purchesability Index Relation between IP Index and the Price of wine sold (0.75 litre) and the number of bottles of wine produced. This index, in its complexity, gives information about quality, convenience and availability in the same time

17 SAMPLE DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS NUMBER OF PURCHASING ACTS OF WINES SIRAH: 72 Period January 2002 to December 2004 Avg. St. dev min max Quantity Price % Italy 4.17 % Australia % France % Chile 1.38 % bottle % of wine sold during promotions 6.94 Low income 2.78 Medium low income Medium High Income High Income % of females % purchased in supermarkets % purchased in Ipermarkets % purchased from other kind of retailers 0

18 ESTIMATED TOTAL CONSUPTION OF SYRAH IN ITALY: 3,433 litre ESTIMATED SYRAH BUSINESS IN ITALY: ABOUT EUR 17,780 COUNTRY OF PRODUCTION: FRANCE ITALIAN REGION OF PRODUCTION: SICILY PURCHASER: MOSTLY MEN WITH MEDIUM HIGH INCOME

19 HOUSEHOLD DEMAND ANALYSIS THE EMPIRICAL MODEL i=1,,n and k=1, K. q is the quantity demanded expressed in litres purchased x is the expenditure or the income p are the prices e is the total expenditure elasticity is the cross-price elasticity Estimation is carried out using Ordinary Least Squares regression

20 HOUSEHOLD DEMAND ANALYSIS THE EMPIRICAL MODEL Adding-up restriction: not applied Expenditure: not included Household socio-demographic characteristics: included Effect of different retail typologies: considered

21 Results Parameter Estimate St. error t-statistic P-value Intercept [.446] Own price elasticiy [.005] Sex [.672] No. family [.185] components Income [.018] Retail [.959] Italian Syrah [.060] R-square 26% The model shows a good fit and the demand is consistent with theoretical properties such as downward sloping.

22 Area of production Positive effect on Syrah consumption Retail typology No significant effect on Syrah wine demand Sex and the number of family components No significant effect on Syrah wine demand

23 SUPPLY ANALYSIS BENCHMARK BEST ITALIAN RED WINES TO ITALIAN SYRAH WINES

24 SYRAH WINES IN LUCA MARONI WINE GUIDE Regions Number of Wines Number of Wineries Sicilia Toscana Lazio Trentino Alto Adige 6 4 Puglia 4 3 Lombardia 3 2 Piemonte 3 2 Valle d Aosta 3 2 Basilicata 2 1 Veneto 2 1 Umbria 1 1 Marche 1 1 Molise 1 1 Totale

25 Descriptive statistics for the Italian Syrah wines mean st.dev min max IP C E I VP QQ ACQ Number of bottles 53, , ,000

26 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR THE 50 BEST RED WINES HIGHEST IP mean St. deviation min max IP VP QQ ACQ HIGHEST VP mean St. deviation min max IP VP QQ ACQ

27 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR THE 50 BEST RED WINES HIGHEST QQ mean St. deviation min max IP VP QQ ACQ HIGHEST ACQ mean St. deviation min max IP VP QQ ACQ

28 RESULTS If compared to the best 50 Italian red Wines, Italian Syrah Wines are: More competitive for Price at the same quality Less competitive for other characteristics

29 CONCLUSIONS This study is the first about Syrah market in Italy Italian consumers perceive Syrah as a foreign wine Once the home bias will diminish will Syrah wine acquire higher market shares in Italy? On the supply side Syrah has been confirmed as being a highly competitive wine for its accessibility and pleasantness

30 Contribution of this study Methodological: it identifies ad hoc methodologies that are easily applicable by the industry to understand such a thin market Informational because results are directly applicable for marketing strategies. The quantitative information about demand, combined with qualitative comparison for the supply allows people involved in Syrah wines business for adjusting their strategies

31 Lyon, France, 13 & 14 May 2008

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