1 Non Parametric Statistics Διατμηματικό ΠΜΣ Επαγγελματική και Περιβαλλοντική Υγεία-Διαχείριση και Οικονομική Αποτίμηση Δημήτρης Φουσκάκης
2 Introduction So far in the course we ve assumed that the data come from some known distribution, e.g. normal or the Central Limit Theory hold. Methods of estimation and hypothesis testing have been based on these assumption. These procedures are usually called parametric statistical methods.. If these assumptions are not met the nonparametric statistical methods must be used.
3 Revision Inferential Statistics Hypothesis testing versus Confidence Intervals Parametric versus Nonparametric Quantitative data Categorical data Relation between two variables Relation between several variables
4 What does inferential statistics do? helps to quantify how certain we can be when we make inferences from a given sample. The three approaches: a) Hypothesis testing b) Confidence Intervals c) Both I know how to do a t-test, but I don t know when!
5 Hypothesis Testing H O : W=w a H A : W w a α: : The Type I error or significance level of the test, is usually set to a value like 5%. Power = (1-β), the power of the test, common value 80%. Power calculations: Have I chosen a correct number of observations? Is H 0 really true? Yes No Researcher s decision Reject H 0 Accept H 0 Type I error α Correct decision Correct decision Power Type II error β
6 Statistical and clinical significance Statistical significance (P value ): The probability that this sample was drawn from a population with characteristics consistent with H 0 was low enough to reject H 0. (usual rule: reject H O if P value < 0.05; why 0.05 and not 0.04?) Clinical (practical) significance: An important finding with implications for your clinical practice.
7 Summary points for Pvalues P values, or significant levels, measure the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis; the smaller it is the stronger the evidence is. An arbitrary division of results, into significant or not, according to the P value was not the intention of the founders. A P value of 0.05 provides some but not strong evidence against the null hypothesis, but it is reasonable to say that P value <0.001 does. Results of medical research should not be reported as significant or not but should be interpreted in the context of the type of study and other available evidence.
8 Correct Definition of the Pvalue P value is the chance of getting a test statistics as extreme or more than the observed one. P value is NOT the chance of the null hypothesis being right.
9 Confidence Intervals(C.I.).) The wrong definition: There is a 95% (e.g.) chance that the parameter of interest will fall within the particular interval. The exact definition: If we take a series of samples from the same population and construct e.g. 95%confidence intervals around their parameters then 95% of these confidence intervals will contain the true parameter. Implementation to the Hypothesis testing: Check if the interval includes w a, in order to decide if you are going to reject the null hypothesis.
10 How to choose a statistical test... The type of data continuous versus categorical The distribution parametric versus non-parametric The sample size The number of samples The relation of samples to each other paired versus unpaired The number of variables univariate versus multivariate
11 Parametric versus Non-Parametric Parametric methods: make distributional assumptions usually assume Normal distribution or use the Central Limit Theorem. comparable Standard Deviations Non-parametric methods: distribution-free P value (non-parametric) > P value (parametric) No confidence intervals usually in the non-parametric tests.
12 Statistical methods for continuous data Univariate tests to compare means: Number of samples or more paired parametric One-sample t-test Paired t-test unpaired Two-sample t-test One-way ANOVA non-parametric Wilcoxon signed rank sum test Wilcoxon matched pairs signed rank sum test Mann-Whitney U test Kruskal-Wallis test
13 One Sample Table 1: Average daily energy intake (kj) over 10 days of 11 healthy women. Subject Average daily energy intake (kj) Mean SD What can we say about the energy intake of these women in relation to a recommended daily intake of 7725kJ?
14 One Sample To answer the question we can carry out a test of the null hypothesis that our data are a sample from a population with a specific hypothesized mean. The test is called the one sample t-test. t test. t sample mean - hypothesized mean x k = = standard error of sample mean s/ n = = / 11 2 (area to the right of t under the t distribution with 10 df) t distribution with n -1=10 df Table If t > t n-1, 1,α/2 or t < - t n-1, /2 reject H o 1,α/2 P value < 0.02 Reject H 0
15 One Sample Alternatively we could calculate a 95% C.I. for the mean intake: (x ± t10,0.025 s / n) = ( ± ) = (5986, 7521) This range does not include the recommended level of 7725KJ. If we assume that the women are a representative sample, then we can infer that for all women of this age the average daily energy consumption is less than is recommended.
16 One Sample Assumptions: The Data comes from a Normal distribution. If the sample size is >30 then because of the Central Limit Theory we can perform the test even if data doesn t t look very near to Normal. For small samples non Normally distributed we should perform a non parametric method like the Sign Test or the Wilcoxon signed rank sum test.
17 One Sample The Sign Test (or Binomial Test) If there were no differences on average between the sample values and the hypothesized specific value we would expect an equal number of observations above and below the specific value. We can thus use the Binomial distribution, or the Normal approximation of it, to evaluate the probability of the observed frequencies when the true probability of exceeding the expected intake is p=1/2. In our dataset 2 women had daily intakes above 7725 KJ and 9 below. We calculate the following test statistic: If z > z α/2 or z<-z α/2 reject H o 2 (area to the right of z under the N(0,1) distribution) r np z = = = 2.11 np(1 p) OR r np z = = = 2.11 np(1 p) Normal Table P value =0.035 REJECT H 0
18 One Sample The Sign Test (or Binomial Test) If any of the observations is exactly the same as the hypothesized value then we ignore it in the calculation. Thus the sample size is the number of observations that differ from the hypothesized value. Because of the small sample size it would be better in the normal approximation to use the continuity correction, i.e. subtract ½ in the absolute value of the numerator. r np 1/2 z = = 1.81 np(1 p) Normal Table P value =0.07 DO NOT REJECT H 0
19 One Sample The Wilcoxon Signed rank Test Calculate the difference between each observation and the value of interest. Ignoring the signs of the differences, rank them in order of magnitude. More powerful test than the sign test. Calculate the sum of the ranks of all the negative (or positive) ranks and find P value from corresponding table.
20 One Sample The Wilcoxon Signed rank Test 3+5 = 8 P value < 0.05 Reject H 0 Wilcoxon Signed rank Test Table
21 Two Groups of Paired Observations Paired data arise when the same individuals are studied more than once, usually in different circumstances. Also, when we have 2 different groups of subjects who have been individually matched, for example on a matched pair case-control control study. Very common in Medical Research. We are interested in the average difference between the observations for each individual and the variability of these differences.
22 Two Groups of Paired Observations Table 2: Mean daily intake over 10 pre-menstrual and 10 post-menstrual days Dietary intake Subject Pre-menstrual Post-menstrual Difference Mean SD We can use the one sample t-test test to calculate a P value for the comparison of means, the observed mean difference of KJ and the hypothetical value of zero, i.e. the null hypothesis is that pre- and post- menstrual dietary intake is the same. d t = = = se(d) / 11 P value < T distribution with n -1=10 df Table Reject H 0
23 Two Groups of Paired Observations Alternatively we could calculate a 95% C.I. for the mean difference: (d ± t10,0.025 s / n) = ( ± ) = (1074.2,1566.8) This range does not include the recommended level of 0KJ. If we assume that the women are a representative sample, then we can infer that dietary intake is much lower in the post- menstrual period.
24 Two Groups of Paired Observations The same assumptions as before hold for the difference data (thus( we require normality for the differences not for each set of data). If these assumptions are not met then we can apply the same non parametric techniques as before for the difference data. For example we see that all 11 differences have the same sign so the test statistic of the sign test with the continuity correction is: r np Normal Table z = = = 3.02 np(1 p) Reject H 0 P value = 0.003
25 Two Independent Groups of Observations The most common statistical analysis, e.g. clinical trials or observational studies comparing different groups of subjects. Table: 24 hour total energy expenditure (MJ/day) in groups of lean and obese women. Lean (n=13) Obese (n=9) Mean SD Is there a true difference in the 24 hour total energy expenditure between lean and obese women?
26 Two Independent Groups of Observations To answer this question we can carry out a test of the null hypothesis that the means of the two populations, obese and lean women have the same mean of total energy expenditure. The test is called the two sample t-test. t test. x x = = = se(x x ) s 1/ n + 1/ n 1 2 t 3.95 where s is the 1 2 p 1 2 p 1 2 pooled standard deviation given by P value <0.001 (T distribution with n 1 + n 2-2=20 df ) Reject H (n1 1)s 1 + (n 2 1)s2 2 th s p =, with s i the variance of the i group. n + n 2 If t > t n1+n2-2, 2,α/2 or t < - t n1+n2-2, 2,α/2 reject H o
27 Two Independent Groups of Observations Alternatively we could calculate a 95% C.I. for the mean difference: ( x ) 1 x2 ± tn + n 2,0.025 sp 1/n1+ 1/n2 1 2 = (2.232 ± ) = (1.05,3.41) This range does not include the value of 0MJ/day. Thus the total energy expenditure in the obese women is greater than that of the lean women.
28 Two Independent Groups of Assumptions: Observations Each set of observations is sampled from a population with a Normal distribution and the variances of the two populations are the same. If the sample sizes of the two groups are >30 then because of the Central Limit Theory we can perform the test even if data doesn t t look very near to Normal in either or both groups. For small samples non Normally distributed, or/and for populations with unequal variances, we should perform a non parametric method, the Mann-Whitney test (or the Wilcoxon Rank sum test).
29 Two Independent Groups of Observations Mann-Whitney Test The Mann-Whitney test requires all observations to be ranked as if they were from a single sample. Then T = sum of the ranks in the smaller group (either group can be taken if they have equal size) is calculated and a P value is found from tables. Mann Whitney Table In our case T=150 P value < 0.01 Reject H 0
30 Two Independent Groups of Observations Mann-Whitney Test
31 Testing the Assumptions How to test normality?? Most people just make a histogram of the data and check if this looks like a bell shape. Although remember r that the assumption is not that the sample has the normal distribution n but that it comes from a population which does. For large samples we expect to see a histogram with a bell shape if the population is normal but with small samples it is quite unlike to get a symmetric distribution even if the population is normally distributed. There are formal methods that test for normality, and you can find them in most statistical packages, like the Shapiro-Wilk test or the Shapiro- Francia test.. You can also use common sense and answer the question if it is reasonable to make the assumption that the population of interest is normally distributed. When the data are not normally distributed and are skewed, it is better to try some transformations first, like the logarithmic one, o in order to make their shape symmetric and then perform a parametric test on the transformed data, instead of doing directly a non parametric test.
32 Testing the Assumptions How to test equality of variances?? Most people just see how close are the 2 sample variances. Instead you can perform a hypothesis testing with a null hypothesis that the two variances are equal; this test is called the F test.
33 Testing the Assumptions Table: Serum thyroxine level (nmol/l) in 16 hypothyroid infants by severity of symptoms (Hulse et al., 1979) Marked symptoms Slight or no symptoms (n=7) (n=9) Mean SD F distribution with n 1-1=6 and n 2-1=8 df 2 2 s F = = = s th where s i is the standard deviation of the i group. If F < F n1 reject H o n1-1,n2 1,n2-1,1-α/2 /2 or F > F n1 n1-1,n2 1,n2-1,a/21,a/2 We wish to compare thyroxine levels in the two groups defined by severity of symptoms, but the sample standard deviations are markedly different. P value < 0.01 Reject H 0 area to the right of F under the F distribution with 6, 8 df)
34 Testing the Assumptions Alternatively we could calculate a 95% C.I. for the variances ratio: 2 2 s1 1 s1 1, = 2 2 s2 Fn 1 1,n2 1,0.975 s2 F n1 1,n2 1, =, = (1.49,38.61) This range does not include the value of 1. Thus the variance in the marked symptoms group is larger than the one in the slight or no symptoms group. Thus we cannot use the t-test t test and we have to perform a non- parametric method.
35 Testing the Assumptions The F test is non-robust to a violation of Normality. Alternatively one can use the Levene s Test using a statistical package, which is not strongly dependent on the assumption of Normality of the two groups.
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