Resolving & Managing Regional and Global Conflicts: The Role of Information Technology

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1 DELIVERED AT THE 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE NIGERIA COMPUTER SOCIETY (NCS) HELD AT THE ROYAL PARK HOTEL, ILOKO-IJESA, THE STATE OF OSUN, NIGERIA (24-26 JULY, 2013) Resolving & Managing Regional and Global Conflicts: The Role of Information Technology Dr. Adedayo Adetoye 24 July 2013

2 The Nature of Future Conflicts Increasingly non-conventional and assymetric State vs. Non-state, Proxies, Ideology (Al-Qaeda, Anonymous, Boko Haram, Hezbollah...) Conventional military intervention vs. insurgency (Iraq, Afghanistan,...) State vs. citizens rebellion (Tunisia, Egypt,...) Cyber conflict (Stuxnet, Chinese APT1,...) their mindset. Deterrence is likely to remain effective against state a may also have a degree of utility against some non-state actors alth will remain impossible to deter all extremists in all circumstances. T considerable risk that simply because deterrence does not stop all o threats terrorists in particular it may be viewed as having limited effectiveness. Deterrence is primarily about stopping high-end threa their absence, it must be assumed to be effective. If it is removed th adaptive adversary will simply raise his game to a higher level. Deterrence is Primarily about Stopping High-End Threat

3 Threat Drivers Global population pressures and changing demographics Limited energy and other resources Failed and failing states Ideology and identity Perceived inequality Poverty and illiteracy Easier global access to (mis)information Connectivity and interdependency T his chapter sets out the Report s framework for how countries escape the vicious cycle of fragility and move toward a virtuous cycle of confidence-building and institutional transformation, especially in the areas of citizen security, justice, and jobs. The framework is presented as an expanding spiral because these processes repeat over time as countries enter and exit multiple transition moments. Even as one set of immediate priorities is resolved, other risks emerge and require a repeated cycle of action to bolster institutional resilience. This process takes at least a generation. Societies undertaking this endeavor face a legacy of pervasive and enduring mistrust, which makes collective action to address challenges or provide public goods so difficult. Outsiders cannot restore confidence and transform institutions for countries because these processes are domestic and must be nationally led. But to help countries restore peace and reduce regional and global instability, international actors can provide external support and incentives and help reduce external stresses.

4 Role of Technology Technology cannot resolve conflicts. Solution will often be political Technology can be used to predict, exacerbate, enable, or dampen conflicts Intelligence, law enforcement, and counter-terrorism Examples...

5 Big Data Analytics Detect previously unknown, valid patterns in large data sets: money transfers, communications, travel, immigration and mobile communication records, social media... Identify terrorist activities Predict and detect fraud and crime Track terrorists Predictive policing Identify threats to national security

6 The Big Boys Already Use It In 2011 CIA allegedly sifted through 5 Million tweets a day CIA also admitted to full monitoring of Facebook, Twitter and other social networks NSA building a heavily-fortified $2 Billion centre in Utah to intercept, decipher, analyse and store vast amount of world communications over satellite, undersea cables Many more examples in Europe...

7 National Preparedness We urgently need to start developing our national cyber security capability. Otherwise we will be at a grave disadvantage against other nation states Develop a legal framework for checks and balances Take advantage of local expertise and in diaspora to formulate our strategy Government needs to engage Academia and groups such as NCS to make this happen Academics and professional bodies need to start training a crop of students to fill positions for this crucial national need

8 Warning! National security cannot be outsourced!!! We have a culture of awarding national projects to foreign companies NOT for National security Only vetted indigenes can be allowed to operate this (as is done everywhere in the world)

9 DELIVERED AT THE 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF THE NIGERIA COMPUTER SOCIETY (NCS) HELD AT THE ROYAL PARK HOTEL, ILOKO-IJESA, THE STATE OF OSUN, NIGERIA (24-26 JULY, 2013) Thank You!