Evolution of transport activities in a macro-economic perspective

Transcription

1 Evolution of transport activities in a macro-economic perspective Stefan R. van Woelderen Senior Economist, ING Economics Department Prague 15 May

2 Agenda GDP Comparison of Selected Economic Regions Economic Outlook Trade Growth Competitive position of Road Transport Basel II Conclusion Wholesale Banking 2

3 GDP Comparison Comparative sizes of the economies, in billions of euros Yr 2006 USA Eurozone Japan China Brazil Russia India New EU Yr 2050 China USA India Eurozone Brazil Japan Russia New EU Source: ING (2007) and Goldman Sachs (2005, adapted by ING Economics Department in 2007) Wholesale Banking 3

4 Agenda GDP Comparison of Selected Economic Regions Economic Outlook Trade Growth Competitive position of Road Transport Basel II Conclusion Wholesale Banking 4

5 ING Growth rate forecasts for period GDP and consumption +2% p.a. Investment +3% p.a. GDP +6% pa. Cons. +9 to 10% Inv. +9 to 11% p.a. GDP and cons. +3% p.a. Inv. +5 to 6% p.a. in 2008 and 2009 GDP and consumption +4 to 6% pa. Inv. +10 to 11% pa. GDP +2% pa. Cons. +2 to 3% Inv. +4 to 7% p.a. GDP 10% pa. Source: ING GDP 3 to 4% pa. Cons. +4 to 5% pa. Inv. +7 to 11% p.a. GDP 8 to 9% pa. Cons. +7 to 8% pa. Inv. +12% p.a. Cons. +12 to 14% Inv. +20% p.a. Wholesale Banking 5

6 GDP growth rates GDP Growth (in %) f 2008f 2009f China India New EU members USA Japan Eurozone * Here, the New EU members comprise the 10 countries in Central and Eastern Europe which have joined the EU in 2004 and 2007 (excluding Cyprus and Malta) Source: ING Wholesale Banking 6

7 Macro environment: private consumption Eurozone consumption growth stable around 2%; CEE 4% (USA 3%) 5,0 4,5 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, f 2008f 2009f Source: ING Eurozone New EU members USA Wholesale Banking 7

8 Macro environment: private investment Investment growth decelerating in eurozone, double digits in CEE (all in %) f 2008f 2009f Source: ING Eurozone New EU members USA Wholesale Banking 8

9 Macro environment: unemployment rate Unemployment rate in CEE dropping almost to eurozone level f 2008f 2009f Source: ING Eurozone New EU members USA Wholesale Banking 9

10 Macro environment: inflation rate Inflation rate difference Eurozone and CEE is about 1%-point 4,0 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, f 2008f 2009f Source: ING Eurozone New EU members USA Wholesale Banking 10

11 Macro environment: wage developments CEE wages are catching up quickly: growth rates of 8% per year f 2008f 2009f Source: ING Eurozone New EU members USA Wholesale Banking 11

12 Macro environment: Oil prices and exchange rates Oil price (per barrel Brent, period avg.) Source: ING Oil price in $ Oil price in 05Q1 05Q2 05Q3 05Q4 06Q1 06Q2 06Q3 06Q4 Wholesale Banking 12 $/ 07Q1 07Q2 07Q3 07Q4 08Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 $/ 1,40 1,30 1,20 1,10 1,00 0,90 0,80

13 Agenda GDP Comparison of Selected Economic Regions Economic Outlook Trade Growth Competitive position of Road Transport Basel II Conclusion Wholesale Banking 13

14 Total trade growth rates Trade Growth (%) Source: ING f 2008f 2009f China India New EU members USA Japan Eurozone Wholesale Banking 14

15 Agenda GDP Comparison of Selected Economic Regions Economic Outlook Trade Growth Competitive position of Road Transport Basel II Conclusion Wholesale Banking 15

16 History shows that road transport is gaining ground Share in freight carried by road, rail (or inland waterways), tonkms Western Europe CEE road transport rail transport Source: OECD road transport rail transport Wholesale Banking 16

17 Road transport is dominant in most CEE countries Road transport share in total freight carried excluding maritime (tonkms. in 2006) Poland 30% 17% 52% road transport rail transport inland waterways air pipeline Baltics 54% 8% 38% Czech Republic 3% 13% Hungary Romania 7% 21% 3% 25% Source: BMI (adapted by ING Econ. Dept.) 75% 23% 61% 65% Wholesale Banking 17

18 Growth of road transport will be superior to rail transport in Hungary and Czech Republic Growth of freight carried by road and rail, % change of tonkms Czech Republic Hungary f 2009f road transport rail transport Source: BMI (adapted by ING Economics Dept.) f 2009f road transport rail transport Wholesale Banking 18

19 but also in Poland, Romania and the Baltics Growth of freight carried by road and rail, % change of tonkms Poland Romania Baltic States f 2009f road transport rail transport f 2009f road transport rail transport f 2009f road transport rail transport Source: BMI (adapted by ING Economics Dept.) Wholesale Banking 19

20 Density of Motorways Motorways: enough room for transport growth in CEE Total kms of motorways (2004) per 100 km² Germany 12, France 10, Netherlands 2, Belgium Spain 1,747 12, Czech Republic Hungary Poland Slovakia Romania >>1 < 1 Source: Eurostat, ECMT, CIA and OECD Wholesale Banking 20

21 Competitive position of road transport + Opportunities Economic growth and trade developments Further harmonisation of laws and regulation ( accessibility) Motorway network is expanding rapidly No alternatives for road transport (short, high-value & fresh goods) Co-operation with other modes Environmental measures lead to fuel savings Wholesale Banking 21

22 Competitive position of road transport - Threats Infrastructure limitations ( growth transport sometimes < GDP) Congestion in ports and on roads (costs, reliability) Level and development of wages Personnel available Regulatory issues (EU) Level and development of fuel prices Operational margins are low Wholesale Banking 22

23 Other favourable developments Containerisation Non-transport companies increasingly outsource supply-chain management Production process (outsourcing, e-business, internationalisation) Wholesale Banking 23

24 Agenda GDP Comparison of Selected Economic Regions Economic Outlook Trade Growth Competitive position of Road Transport Basel II Conclusion Wholesale Banking 24

25 Wholesale Banking 25

26 Basel II Regulatory Capital Adequacy Framework Basel I (1988) has played an important role in increasing financial stability. However, both banks and regulators wanted improvements in the way capital requirements reflect underlying risks. Banks located in all EU countries and some 30 non-eu countries will implement Basel II. The objective is full implementation by end of 2007 (and reporting from March 08 onwards). Several risk mitigation instruments (e.g. collateral, guarantees) which were not fully recognised in Basel I, are taken into account in Basel II. Wholesale Banking 26

27 Basel II What are the implications? Not only credit and market risk, but also operational risk is taken into account. Banks are allowed to use internal risk assessment capabilities. The different risk profiles of the borrowers are better captured (improvements in measurement, monitoring and management of risks involved). Banks have to provide more transparency to their stakeholders with regard to their risk profile and asset portfolio. High quality borrowers or borrowers that provide risk mitigating instruments (e.g. assets backing the loans) might benefit; More efficient capital allocation potentially leads to more competitive lending rates. Wholesale Banking 27

28 Agenda GDP Comparison of Selected Economic Regions Economic Outlook Trade Growth Competitive position of Road Transport Basel II Conclusion Wholesale Banking 28

29 Concluding remarks Growth of economy and trade flows lead to positive outlook for transport demand both in Eurozone and CEE. Unique characteristics of road transport and several developments which are on balance positive offer opportunities. The main threats are congestion, developments of wages and lack of qualified personnel. Road transport is expected to remain dominant mode Europe-wide. Basel II: better captures risk profiles of borrowers, offers greater transparency to stakeholders, and opportunities to banks and ultimately to high-quality borrowers. Wholesale Banking 29

30 Certain of the statements contained herein are statements of future expectations and other forward-looking statements. These expectations are based on management's current views and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance or events may differ materially from those in such statements due to, among other things, (i) general economic conditions, in particular economic conditions in ING s core markets, (ii) performance of financial markets, including emerging markets, (iii) the frequency and severity of insured loss events, (iv) mortality and morbidity levels and trends, (v) persistency levels, (vi) interest rate levels, (vii) currency exchange rates (viii) general competitive factors, (ix) changes in laws and regulations, (x) changes in the policies of governments and/or regulatory authorities. ING assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking information contained in this document. Wholesale Banking 30