Moving the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation from an Offense- Based to Risk-Based System

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1 Moving the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation from an Offense- Based to Risk-Based System Susan Turner University of California, Irvine September 2010

2 Presentation Will Cover Size and scope of CDCR Pressures under which it currently operates Recommendations for change Major Risk-Based Initiatives Lessons learned

3 California Hosts Largest Correctional System in US Prison population is 167,000 Located in 33 institutions statewide and out-of of- state 94% males; 14% registered sex offenders; ~60% convicted of person crimes; 41K strikers One-third are parole violators Parole population is 109,000 28% convicted of person crimes 2/3 fail under supervision, many for technicals

4 Traditionally, Focus Has Been on Offense Committed Three-strikes legislation focuses on serious and violent conviction striker caseloads for parole Sex convictions drive institutional and parole placements GPS caseloads for high risk sex offenders Gang affiliation increases institutional classification, parole supervision

5 CDCR Faces Pressures on Several Fronts Three judge panel ruling Overcrowding contributes to poor inmate health Requires CDCR to come up with a plan to reduce prison by over 40,000 inmates Statewide budget cuts target corrections $250 mil cut to programs, 800+ teachers laid off $8.8 billion budget down from $10 bil+ 15% payroll cuts, similar to other state agencies

6 CDCR Faces Pressures on Several Fronts (cont) California Rehabilitation Oversight Board (C- ROB) established in 2007 by AB 900 Mission is to regularly examine mental health, substance abuse, educational, and employment programs 11 member board chaired by Inspector General Representation from UCs, CSUs, community colleges, CDCR

7 Expert Panel Represents Major Shift in Thinking Experts convened in 2007 to devise new model for CDCR program delivery Evidence-based approaches considered for adoption Risk, needs, responsively focus Critical look into programming provided by CDCR for institutions and parole

8 CDCR Programming Was Limited Half of inmates participate in no programs before they are released 18% in traditional education 7% in substance abuse treatment 6% in vocational education 37% in support services Many programs are rated as complying with evidence-based practices

9 California Logic Model Developed by Expert Panel

10 Presentation Will Cover Size and scope of CDCR Pressures under which it currently operates Recommendations for change Major Risk-Based Initiatives Lessons learned

11 Major Risk-Based Initiatives Developed Since EP Report California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA) Parole Violation Decision Making Instrument (PVDMI) Non-revocable parole New parole model

12 UCI Asked to Assist with Risk Prediction for CDCR Population Develop an actuarial risk prediction instrument using available data Validate the instrument to determine predictive power for the CDCR population Operate as a plug in to the existing COMPAS tool

13 Resulting CSRA Uses 22 Items to Predict Recidivism Demographics Age at release, gender Number of felony sentences Felony sentences for murder/ manslaughter, sex, violent, weapons, property, drug and escape offenses Misdemeanor sentences for assault, sex, weapons, property, drug, alcohol and escape offenses Revocations of probation or parole supervision

14 CSRA Scores Offenders on Three Nested Sub-Scales Scales 1. Violent Sub-Scale Scale 2. Property & Violent Sub-Scale Scale 3. Any Felony Sub-Scale Scale This allows CDCR to differentiate risk by type of recidivism

15 CSRA Risk Group Is Determined Hierarchically Violent Score 103 or higher? No Property/Viol. Score 119 or higher? No Felony Score 127 or higher? No Property/Viol. Score or Felony Score 96 or higher? Low No Yes Yes Yes Yes High Violent High Property High Drug Moderate

16 CSRA Divides the Population into Distinct Risk Groups Any Felony Percent Drug Felony Property Felony Violent Felony 0 Low (22%) Moderate (33%) High Drug (9%) High Property (19%) High Violent (17%) "Any Arrest" Rates by Risk Group

17 Major Risk-Based Initiatives Developed Since EP Report California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA) Parole Violation Decision Making Instrument (PVDMI) Non-revocable parole New parole model

18 PVDMI Developed to Increase Consistency of PV Decisions Concern that parole agent responses to violations were not consistently made Concern with offenders churning back into CDCR for minor offenses Desire to place right parolees in the right programs Possibility of reducing prison population in response to budget and judicial pressures

19 PVDMI Based on Violation Severity and Offender Risk Violation Severity Low Moderate High Mandatory Referral High Most Intensive Mandatory Referral Moderate Mandatory Referral Low Least Intensive Mandatory Referral

20 Least Intensive Responses Emphasize Community-Based Programs PVDMI Response Level 1: Least Intensive Verbal reprimand Increase reporting requirements Refer to community-based substance abuse treatment Electronic monitoring

21 Moderately Intensive Responses Include Treatment and Increased Supervision PVDMI Response Level 2: Moderately Intensive Referral to psychological assessment/ evaluation Increase UA testing Refer to day reporting center Refer to structured drug treatment program

22 Most Intensive Responses Include Drug Treatment and Custody Most Intensive A Placement into mental health services Placement into intensive residential or outpatient drug treatment Refer to Parolee Substance Abuse Program (PSAP) Refer to In-Custody Drug Treatment Program (ICDTP) Most Intensive B or C Recommend for revocation

23 Destabilizing Factors Are Required to Override the PVDMI Violation directly related to commitment offense or pattern of criminal behavior Acutely unstable home situation Demonstrated inability to support self Evidence of escalating drug or alcohol addiction Chronic pattern or violations under supervision Lack of appropriate program in recommended response level

24 Stabilizing Factors Are Required to Underride the PVDMI Presence of positive family, peer, or other social support in the community Job stability Enrollment/participation in an established education and/or treatment program Stable and appropriate residence Positive performance history on supervision Lack of appropriate program in recommended response level

25 DAPO Followed PVDMI Recommendation Majority of the Time

26 Frequency and Pattern of Current Violation Leads to Overrides

27 Overrides Reveal Need for Most Intensive A A Programs

28 Lack of Programs Leads to Underrides

29 Most Intensive A A Program Needs Also Seen in Underrides

30 Major Risk-Based Initiatives Developed Since EP Report California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA) Parole Violation Decision Making Instrument (PVDMI) Non-revocable parole New parole model

31 NRP and New Model Two Sides of the Coin Remove lower-risk risk parolees from supervision to concentrate on higher risk Follows risk principle Follows need principle match offenders needs with services Follows responsivity Train agents in MI, listening skills Provides potential cost savings

32 Non-Revocable Parole Considers both Risk and Stakes of Parolees No sex offenders No prior or current serious or violent conviction No convictions for serious disciplinary offense Not validated gang member Offender agrees to placement Not high risk on CSRA But NOTHING about treatment needs

33 NRP Program Removes Parolees from Active Caseloads Parolees are screened and asked to sign a contract Law enforcement allowed search and seizure Outcry from local law enforcement and DAs regarding NRP Treatment concerned about dumping Some parolees have minimal oversight to finish court ordered programs

34 Impact of NRP is Not yet Known UCI conducting process and outcome evaluation using historical comparison group Analysis of the pipeline of eligibility Estimates may be smaller than previously thought Outcomes will measure technical violations as well as new arrests Additional studies might focus on local communities Are courts being clogged? What pressures are placed on law enforcement, health, and other services

35 Lessons Learned from Current CDCR Efforts Disconnect between CDCR HQ and staff on the ground Staff resistance to actuarial tools Second-guess tool or use information redundantly Offense still relatively more important than risk Lack of resources (e.g., treatment availability) to effect evidence-based changes Risk vs. stakes causes confusion Sex offenders

36 Lessons Learned from Current CDCR Efforts (cont) Focus on risk presents fertile ground for critics of CDCR reform Law enforcement, prosecutors, victims groups use scare tactics Risk focus may push problem to local corrections and law enforcement Evidence-based is not 100% accurate

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