Forum: Middle Eastern and North African Committee Issue: The situation in Syria Student Officer: Andrew Noh. Introduction:

Transcription

1 Forum: Middle Eastern and North African Committee Issue: The situation in Syria Student Officer: Andrew Noh Introduction: The situation in Syria has been a hot-button issue for the past five years. What began as a single anti-government protest in 2011 has degenerated into a massive conflict, blowing up into a civil war that has drawn in hundreds of different groups, including opposition forces, foreign powers and terrorist groups. The complexity of the opposition has complicated attempts at peace. The opposition is made up of dozens or groups, all wanting to topple Assad, but also all with a different vision of what a post-assad Syria would look like. Without a single unifying ideology or chain of command, the opposition has also at times struggled to cooperate and mount an effective campaign. The violence that has marred the country has prompted millions to leave their homes. Most often, they seek refuge in Turkey or Lebanon, or attempt the dangerous sea voyage across the Mediterranean to Europe. To date, nearly 5 million Syrians have fled their country, over 1 million of which are children. Human rights abuses have become frequent in Syria, committed by both government forces and some rebel groups. As the numerous groups within Syria jostle for power, many foreign countries have gotten involved as well. Syria s neighbors, such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia, have been just as involved as world superpowers US and Russia. The conflict continues today, with battles still raging in cities like Aleppo. It remains unclear just how much longer the world will have to wait before the situation in Syria improves. Key terms: Bashar al-assad: Assad is the president of Syria, the commander-in-chief of the Syrian Armed Forces and the leader of the Syrian Ba ath Party. Assad was elected after his father, who ruled Syria for 30 years using authoritarian tactics, died in Sunni Islam: Branch of Islam that believes Abu Bakr and his successors were the rightful heirs to the leadership of the Islamic community. They comprise about 90% of the worldwide Muslim population, with majorities in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Syria and the UAE.

2 Shia Islam: Branch of Islam that believes that the Islamic community should be led by the descendants of Muhammad's cousin, Ali. They comprise only about 10% of the worldwide Muslim population, but are majorities in Iran, Iraq and Bahrain. Assad s regime in Syria, which is mostly Sunni, is a Shia government. In fact, the Assad family belongs to a Shia sect called the Alawites. Though this group only makes up about 10% of the Syrian population, many Alawites were appointed to high government positions by the Assad regimes. The Free Syrian Army (FSA): A collection of 30 anti-assad militant groups. The army is led by the Supreme Military Council (SMC) and General Salid Idris. The FSA is mostly made up of defectors from the Syrian military who, at the beginning of the Syrian Civil War, refused to orders to fire on civilians. Current estimates put the fighting size of the army at to soldiers, although it is spread across the country and poorly equipped. Certain rebel groups in the army have been trained and given weapons by the CIA. The Islamic Front: An alliance between seven Islamist groups formed with the aim of toppl[ing] the Assad regime completely and build[ing] an Islamic state. Previously under the command of the SMC, they withdrew from the FSA in November They have a fighting force totalling about soldiers and operate independently of the FSA. Syrian Armed Forces: The Syrian government s military forces, composed of the Syrian Arab Army, Syrian Arab Navy, Syrian Arab Air Force and others. The Syrian Army has a fighting force of about men.

3 Islamic State of Iraq and Syria: Also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh. ISIS is a militant group that rose in 2014, taking over swathes of land in Syria and Iraq. They are a jihadist group that follow the Sunni Islam doctrine and wish to establish a global Islamic caliphate. Hezbollah: A political and military group from Lebanon comprised of Shias. Hezbollah is labelled a terrorist organization by the West, Arab Gulf countries, and the Arab League. Kurds: An ethnic group comprised of a population of about million -- the fourth largest ethnicity in the Middle East. The Kurds were promised an independent state after World War I, but never got it and have been attempting to establish their own country ever since. The Kurdish population now lives along the borders of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Armenia and Iran. They have a strong and distinctive cultural community, and are mostly Sunni. In Syria, they are represented by the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Unity Party (PYD) and the party s armed wing, the Popular Protection Units (YPG). Ba ath Party: The Ba ath Party, or the Resurrection Party, is the ruling party in Syria. It was founded in 1947 by Syrians Michel Aflaq and Salah Bitar with the goal of promoting unity amongst all Syrians. Ba athism advocates nationalism and socialism as means to bridge the gap between all different groups existing within Syria, including classes and religious affiliations. The Ba ath Party seized power in March 1963 and has ruled ever since. Proxy war: Multiple possible definitions. Some define a proxy war as a war instigated by a major power that does not itself become involved. Others define it as a war where two powers use third parties as a supplement to, or a substitute for fighting each other directly.

4 Arab Gulf States: Seven nations bordering the Persian Gulf: Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Oman. In general, these countries oppose Assad (see Major countries and Organizations Involved section below) Refugee: According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), someone who has been forced to flee his or her country because of persecution, war, or violence (...) Most likely, they cannot return home or are afraid to do so. War and ethnic, tribal and religious violence are leading causes of refugees fleeing their countries. Chemical weapons: According to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), any toxic chemical or its precursor that can cause death, injury, temporary incapacitation or sensory irritation through its chemical action. Munitions or other delivery devices designed to deliver chemical weapons, whether filled or unfilled, are also considered weapons themselves. 3. Background Information Historical Background on Syria: Ottoman Rule, French Mandate, and Independence from 1920 to 1961 Syria had long been a part of Islamic caliphates until it came under the control of the Ottoman Empire in the year It remained an Ottoman province until the the end of World War I (WWI), when Arab nationalists led a revolt against the Ottomans and created a new nation-state centered at Damascus. The independence was short lived however, as the Treaty of San Remo in 1920 placed Syria under French control as a part of the mandate system. Under French rule, Syria became part of Greater Lebanon. Though the mandate was meant to prepare the Syrians for independence, the French had little intention to allow their newly acquired territories out of their grasp. They attempted to implement policies aimed at changing the cultural makeup of the region: French was to replace Arabic as the dominant language, Catholicism was to undercut the influence of Islam, and French customs and laws were to be followed. The French also never shied away from violence, often implementing martial law and bombing Damascus. This style of management not only failed in its goals of establishing Syria as a French safe-zone in the Middle East, but also backfired: the initial denial of Syrian independence in 1920 and the oppressive French rule fueled Arab nationalism that would become a driving factor behind the push for autonomy. Yet, it would not be until April 1946 that the French would completely withdraw from Syria, finally an independent country. Once the last of the French troops had been evacuated, multiple groups battled to fill the power vacuum left behind. Hopes for an end to the years of instability and coups were rekindled in 1958, when Syria and Egypt joined to form the United Arab Republic (UAR). The new country would be short-lived, however: concerns of Egyptian domination of the union prompted an army coup and a Syrian secession from the Republic. Syria was once again left searching for

5 strong leadership that would bring an end to the political turmoil that had reigned since the French withdrawal. Rise of the Ba ath Party and Hafez al-assad s presidency from 1962 to 2000 As part of the agreement creating the UAR, all Syrian political parties, including the Ba ath Party, were dissolved. By 1962 however, a year after Syria s secession from the Republic, the party was reformed by Michel Aflaq, one of the two original founders of the party. In 1963, emboldened by the Iraqi Ba ath Party s successful coup d état, the military branch of the Syrian Ba ath Party staged a takeover and installed a civilian Ba ath government at Damascus headed by President Amin al-hafiz. Yet, the moderate civilian and extremist military factions of the party continued to battle for increasing influence and, after three years of internal conflict, al-hafiz and civilian leadership were overthrown. Thus was born the second Ba ath government of 1966, headed by President Nur al-din al-atasi. Hafez al-assad, who, as a military officer, had participated in the 1963 coup, was appointed as Minister of Defence. Yet, the factionalism that had characterized the first Ba ath government spilled into the second one as well. The relationship between the military and the civilian groups in the party deteriorated significantly as a result of Syria s disastrous participation in the Six- Day War against Israel and the Black September events. Eventually, tensions reached a breaking point, culminating in the November 1970 Corrective Revolution, a bloodless coup in which Hafez al-assad seized power. Once in power, al-assad sought to consolidate his power and restructure the government. The country, which had since the 1963 coup lived under military rule, got a new constitution. As Assad was a Shia in a Sunni country, Assad appointed many Sunnis to important government posts to placate the majority of the population. He also arrested many former leaders of the Ba ath party, leaving him as the party s sole leader. In March 1971, he was confirmed as President of Syria for seven years in a plebiscite, winning 99.6% of the vote. Over the rest of his presidency, Assad worked to centralize the government s power into the Ba ath party, with himself sitting atop the party s hierarchy. Ultimately, the goal was for himself and the party to have control over most aspects of civilian life. Most government and military jobs became reserved for only Ba ath party members. A cult of personality was developed and Ba athist propaganda found its way into schools, indoctrinating children from a young age. Political dissidents were often jailed and only government-controlled newspapers were allowed to publish. Resistance to Assad s regime still existed, however, usually inspired by the lack of Islamic influence in the government. In the early 1980 s, inspired by the Iranian Revolution, armed Muslim groups instigated unrest throughout the country and even attempted to assassinate Assad. Finally, in 1982, the Muslim Brotherhood, a Sunni group, began a full on revolt in the city of Hama. The uprising was brutally crushed by the Syrian Army, which destroyed the city and killed around

6 Under Assad s rule, Syria participated in a number of regional wars. In 1973, Syria in the Arab- Israeli War in hopes of regaining the Golan Heights, which they had lost to Israel in Syria also sent their troops into Lebanon twice: once in 1976 to support the Maronite regime in the Lebanese Civil War, and again in 1987 to maintain the ceasefire that had ended the civil war. The rivalry between the two Ba athist regimes in Syria and Iraq manifested itself in 1980, when Syria supported Iran in the Iran-Iraq War and in 1990, when Syria joined the US-led coalition against Iraq. Bashar al-assad s presidency, to the present After his father s death in 2000, Bashar al-assad was quickly affirmed as Syrian president through an election in which he was the only candidate. High hopes were raised that Bashar s rule would be very different from his father s. Having been educated abroad and married a Westerner, many believed that he would bring a different perspective to the country. Indeed, at the onset of his presidency, he sought to bring reform to the country. The first year of Assad s presidency became known as the Damascus Spring and gave hope for a more democratic Syria. Discussion rooms called salons, where people could discuss political and social issues, popped up around the country. Hundreds of political prisoners were released and the Mezze prison, which had long stood as a symbol of government oppression, was closed. Syrian troops were pulled out of Beirut after having been stationed there by Assad s father. Yet, hopes for a more open rule were crushed by September 2001, when the government arrested many pro-reform activists and politicians. The rest of the decade was characterized by rocky relations with the outside world. President George Bush and the US implemented new policies in 2002, whereby Syria was considered to be part of the axis of evil. In 2003, the US accused Syria of developing chemical weapons, and the following year, imposed economic sanctions, alleging that Syria supported terrorist groups. Israel would also have tense relations with Syria, bombing a Palestinian refugee camp near Damascus in 2003 and an alleged nuclear research facility in The 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafic Hariri, in which Syrian officials were implicated by a UN investigation, further strained Syria s relationship with the US. Relations with other countries also began to improve, however. In 2004, Assad became the first Syrian leader to visit Turkey, signalling a diplomatic thaw. In 2006, Iraq and Syria finally reestablished diplomatic relations. In 2008, Syria not only hosted a conference for peace in the Middle East, but also began dialogue with France and established diplomatic relations with Lebanon. It seemed as though Syria were moving towards acceptance by the world and that peace with Syria was within sight. Syrian Civil War from to the present 2011: The Syrian Civil War erupted in 2011, as the wave of pro-democratic protests known as the Arab Spring reached Syria. Inspired by the demonstrations that had successfully forced leaders in Tunisia and Egypt to step down, anti-government protesters began gathering in the city of Deraa in March Assad responded through a mix of both conciliatory and violent measures in order to try and quell the protests. The Syrian Army, which had been humiliated by past failures

7 against Israel, was sent in to deal with the unrest and began to fire on protesters. As a result of these harsh crackdown measures employed by Assad, demonstrations began to grow and spread across the country as protesters took to the streets. The government continued to send troops and tanks into unruly cities and employed force to extinguish any and all dissent. As the government repression grew increasingly violent, thousands of soldiers defected from the army to Turkey, where, in August 2011, they launched the Free Syrian Army (FSA). In this same month, the Syrian National Council (SNC), a coalition of opposition groups seeking Assad s resignation, was also formed. These were the first opposition groups to formally organize themselves against Assad. Despite the formation of the FSA and the SNC, opposition groups failed to band together completely due to differences in political, ethnic or religious ideologies. These internal divisions and lack of opposition cooperation allowed Assad s government to remain largely in power at this time. In November, Syria was expelled from the Arab League for failing to implement a peace plan it had agreed to. By December, the UNHCR called for an international intervention in the Syrian conflict in order to avoid a degeneration of the situation into an all-out civil war. On the whole, the international community condemned Assad for his harsh methods of crushing protests. Countries such as Turkey, Jordan and the Arab League all criticized Assad, while the US and the European Union went so far as to impose economic sanctions. These efforts had little effect, however, as the violence and unrest continued to spread. 2012: By February 2012, the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 66/253, strongly condemning Assad s government s actions. Though the resolution offered to peace plan or action, it was a symbolic show of unity against Assad. An attempt to pass a Security Council resolution backing the Arab League s Peace Plan was vetoed by China and Russia. The Security Council did, however, vote to support UN Special Envoy Kofi Annan s Syrian Peace Plan. Though Assad s government agreed to the plan, because of the fractured nature of the opposition, it was difficult to ensure that the rebels would adhere. Sure enough, mere days after the ceasefire went into effect, fighting renewed itself. By the summer of 2012, fighting between armed opposition and government forces had intensified sharply. Opposition groups, called brigades, begin to unite around groups like the FSA, allowing for more effective attacks and organization. An increased use of heavy weaponry also helped result in a large uptick in both military and civilian casualties. In May, over a hundred civilians were massacred by government forces at Houla. While the government began heavy bombardment of major cities such as Homs, opposition forces begin to detonate bombs in Damascus. In July, the FSA detonated a bomb at the Syrian National Security building, killing four top government officials. These sorts of attacks became a regular occurrence in the capital. All the while, the Syrian government continued to arrest thousands of dissenters.

8 Fighting also spread to Aleppo, Syria s largest city. Here, the rebels captured about half of the city. The battle for Aleppo still rages on today, causing high casualty numbers. Up to this point in the war, UN estimates put the death toll at around Tensions begin to form between Turkey and Syria as well. In June, a Turkish warplane was shot down by the Syrian Armed Forces. In October, mortar fire from Syria lands in a Turkish border, killing five civilians. Syria s Al-Qaeda branch, called the al-nusra Front, is also established in this year to fight against Assad. The US quickly classifies the group as a terrorist organization. The year closes with an important new development: the foundation of the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. This coalition brought together main opposition groups with the aim of overthrowing and punishing the government while establishing a democratic Syria. The National Coalition was recognized by the US, UK, France, Turkey and the Gulf States as being the legal representatives of the Syrian people. 2013: In March, the Syrian conflict hit an important and disheartening milestone: according to the UN, up to this point, the number of Syrian refugees had surpassed 1 million. In the short span of the next 10 months, the number would double to 2 million refugees. March also saw the US and UK pledge non-military support to opposition groups after the Syrian government heavily bombs the rebel-controlled city of Raqqa. In August, allegations that the government had employed chemical weapons were lobbed at Assad. A UN investigation would reveal that chemical weapons had been used in two separate attacks on rebel-controlled areas. The death toll varies from 300 casualties up to Though some reports show the government to be behind the attacks, the UN investigation did not assign any blame for the attacks. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said he believed that attack could be considered a war crime. Under intense international pressure, including the threat of an American military intervention, Assad allows international inspectors to begin dismantling Syria s chemical weapons. Although the Syrian stockpile of chemical weapons is supposed to have been eliminated, both rebel groups and the government continue to report chemical attacks today. Fighting continued to escalate, with the FSA fighting alongside the Kurdish People s Protection Units (YPG) against the government and Hezbollah. The UN death toll estimate now stood at In September 2013, a dozen opposition groups left the National Coalition in favor of forming their own alliance, which would become known as the Islamic Front (see definition in Key Terms section). Once again, the opposition was becoming more and more fractured.

9 2014: The beginning of 2014 was characterized by infighting and internal tension among rebel groups. These disagreements and lack of cooperation led to several important rebel defeats, most notably at Yabroud, where Hezbollah helped government forces to victory, and Homs, where the rebels are driven out completely. It s around this time that the group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) began to take form. By February, the group split off completely from al-qaeda and embarked on a very successful military campaign across Northern Iraq and Eastern Syria. By June, ISIS declared its caliphate and installed governmental infrastructure to their conquered territories. ISIS also targeted oil-rich areas in hopes of selling oil on the black market to finance their militant activities. In August, ISIS conquered all of Raqqa province in Syria and beheaded American journalist James Foley. In response to the growing threat of ISIS, a US-led international coalition began airstrikes on strategic targets. Coalition airstrikes bombed ISIS-controlled Raqqa and the Kurdish city of Kobani, which was under attack by ISIS. In many ways, the fight against ISIS began to take steal the limelight from the civil war that continued to rage on. The emergence of ISIS had added another layer of complexity to the situation. 2015: In January, new UN estimates put the death toll at and claimed that a third of the country s population had been displaced by the conflict. The new year saw opposition success. Rebel forces were able to push back government gains in many areas of the country. Kurdish fighters, supported by American airstrikes, successfully pushed ISIS out of Kobani. al-nusra and the Army of Conquest conquered the area around the city of Idlib, leaving the north of the country in the hands of Islamist opposition forces. Despite coalition bombing, ISIS continued its string of condemnable actions, destroying World Heritage sites in the city of Palmyra, burning a captured Jordanian pilot alive and massacring Syrian Christians. In September, Russia conducted its first airstrikes in Syria. Although Russia claims that the targets of the strikes are ISIS holdings, many opposition forces and the US claim that rebel groups are being attacked. Some believe that the Russian bombings are meant to help the Assad regime and are being conducted under the guise of fighting ISIS. By December, the UK had joined the US airstrike coalition in response the ISIS s November terrorist attacks in Paris and Beirut. Meanwhile, the number of Syrian refugees hit 4 million, making it the largest refugee crisis in memory. Most flood into Europe and Jordan, where countries are slow to allocate the resources necessary to deal with the massive influx of migrants.

10 2016: In February, a temporary ceasefire brokered by the US and Russia was put into place in hopes of allowing humanitarian aid to flow into the country. In August, Turkey sent troops across the Syrian border to attack ISIS in a Kurdish border town. The offensive has aims to attack the jihadist group, as well as to drive away Kurdish militants from their border. To date, more than have been killed, including civilians. Over 4.7 million have been forced to flee the country out of fear for their lives. The US and Russia, as well as many Middle Eastern States and terrorist groups, maintain a presence in the country and the conflict. 4. Major countries and organizations involved

11 Russia: Russia is the Assad regime s largest and most important backer. They have a number of military interests in Syria, namely a naval facility at Tartous and an air base at Latakia, that they would like to protect by keeping Assad in power. In the past, Russia has vetoed number of Security Council resolutions that would allow for stronger measures against Assad s regime. The Russians have also provided military equipment, including armored vehicles and various weapons, to Assad s forces. Russia s recent airstrike campaign against ISIS has been accused of simply being a veil under which they can bomb anti-assad groups. Iran: Iran has also been one of Assad s biggest supporters. Shia dominated Iran would like to see Assad, who is a Shia Muslim as well, stay in power. The Iranians have poured billions of dollars into supporting Assad s regime, and have even sent military advisors and weapons to the Syrian government. Iran is also thought to have considerable influence over Hezbollah, who are backing Assad. Hezbollah: Hezbollah entered the conflict on Assad s side in 2013, when they provided a much needed influx of disciplined and effective fighters. As a Shia group, they would like to see a Shia remain in power in Syria, rather than the Sunni population. Syrian Opposition:

12 The Syrian opposition is the collective of rebel groups that fight to see the downfall of the Assad regime. There are many small groups that compose the opposition, and as such, the range of religious ideologies is very wide. The most notable groups within the opposition are the Free Syrian Army, the National Coalition, the Islamic Front. The Free Syrian Army was one of the first opposition coalitions to form. The army is a group of rebel groups that fight Assad s regime for a new and democratic Syria. The Islamic Front: The Islamic Front formed in 2013 with the goal of toppling Assad in order to make way for an Islamic state. With fighters, they are the largest rebel group to form since the beginning of the conflict. They have no affiliation to any country, and instead pledge their allegiance to the doctrine of Islam. Though they are not allied with other Islamist groups such as ISIS or the al- Nusra Front, they have suggested that they are willing to work with such groups to achieve their aims. ISIS: ISIS functions with the goal of establishing an Islamic caliphate and to that end has been waging military campaigns throughout Syria and Iraq. They have previously cooperated with some members of the opposition against Assad, but their extreme violence have left them with virtually no allies and many enemies. Recently, ISIS have been pushed back by airstrikes and have been losing territory, but still retain access to the oilfields through which they generate much of their revenue. USA: The United States has staunchly opposed Assad since the violence erupted in Syria in To this end, the US has provided training and weapons to opposition groups. The US is picky about which groups it chooses to help, however. They evaluate the different rebel groups and try to only provide aid to moderate ones. The US has stated that Assad must step down in order for a peaceful settlement in Syria. The other entity that the US opposes in Syria is ISIS. In 2014, the US began leading international coalition airstrikes against ISIS-held territories. The US has also attempted to train and arm Syrian rebels to fight ISIS, but has largely failed to get this program moving. Arab Gulf States: The Arab Gulf states have been largely committed to seeing the ouster of Assad s regime in Syria. They fear the increasing influence of Iran in Syria (both countries are led by Shia regimes). Saudi Arabia and Qatar in particular are concerned that if Assad s regime survives with Iran s help, the Iranians will be emboldened to expand their influence in the Middle East. These two countries have provided substantial aid to many rebel groups, some of which are considered to be terrorist groups by the West. Many of the Gulf States have also joined the USled coalition against ISIS. Turkey:

13 Turkey has also been a strong critic of Assad since the 2011 uprising and has been an important ally to the opposition, the US and the Gulf League in this matter. Turkey has allowed rebel fighters and shipments to the rebels to pass through their country safely. Turkey is, however, skittish about the opposition groups cooperation with the YPG, which is affiliated with the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). Turkey considers the PKK to be a terrorist group. Beginning in 2015, Turkey has allowed the US-led coalition to use Turkish airbases to bomb ISIS. Turkey has also welcomed over 2 million Syrian refugees. al-nusra Front: The al-nusra Front, also known as Jabhat al-nusra, has conducted a number of bombings and guerrilla attacks on government-controlled targets and have become one of the most effective groups in the opposition. al-nusra has also become known for its social initiatives conducted in territories it controls. al-nusra justifies their attacks on the government as revenge for the many atrocities committed by the Assad regime. They have cooperated in the past with the FSA in some military campaigns, but their connections with al-qaeda have prompted the FSA to distance itself from the group. Jordan: Though Jordan has steadily increased its anti-assad stance since 2011, it still treads carefully when it comes to the Syrian situation. Ultimately, Jordan fears a spread of unrest from Syria into Jordan and the spread of jihadism in the Middle East. Jordan has also taken in thousands of Syrian refugees. European Union (EU): The European Union has become implicated in the situation as a result of the mass immigration from Syria to the EU. Currently, more than about 1 million Syrians have requested asylum in Europe. Italy and Greece have especially felt the effects of the migrant crisis, as they function as the doorway to Europe for many refugees who arrive by boat. Attempts to resolve the issue, such as the quota system or the 2016 deal with Turkey, have have been mostly unsuccessful. Kurds: The Kurds are not truly against Assad; they are simply taking advantage of the power struggle in Syria to fight for the chance to establish their own autonomous state. In order to achieve this, they have had to fight ISIS, who have shown interest in taking land the Kurds consider their own. For this reason, the Kurds have become and important ally in the fight against the jihadist group. 5. Timeline of Events For a comprehensive timeline of events concerning Syria, visit the following site: 6. Relevant UN Treaties and Events

14 Kofi Annan Syrian Peace Plan UN Special Envoy to Syria Kofi Annan proposed a six-point plan in 2012 to bring peace to Syria. The plan called for a ceasefire, a pullback of military troops and peace discussions to be held between the rebels and the Syrian government. Although the Syrian government agreed to this plan, only parts of the opposition felt that it went far enough. The peace under this deal lasted only a few days before fighting renewed itself. Geneva I Conference The Geneva I Conference on Syria was held in 2012 at the behest of UN Special Envoy Kofi Annan. In attendance were representatives from the US, Russia, China and the UK. The conference agreed that a transitional government with representatives from both the current Syrian regime and from the opposition would be needed in Syria. This conclusion was followed up at the Geneva II Conference in The final communiqué of the conference stated that the conference agreed to attempt to implement Kofi Annan s six point plan and called for an end to all violence in Syria. Geneva II Conference The Geneva II Middle East Conference was held in 2014 and was UN sponsored. The goal was to form the transitional government discussed at Geneva I. Although the conference lasted nine days, no agreement was reached between the two sides International Syria Support Group (ISSG)/Vienna peace talks The Vienna peace talks were held in late 2015 with the participation of 20 countries and international organizations, including the US, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the UN. This meeting was convened in order to attempt to accomplish what Geneva II had failed to do: convince all parties in Syria to implement a ceasefire and begin steps towards a transitional government. In November 2015, the ISSG yielded a peace plan for Syria. Under this plan, ISSG members agreed to work to implement a ceasefire in Syria once the opposition and the government took steps to form a transitional government. The 20 countries and organizations also agreed to try and hold a meeting between the government and the opposition as soon as possible. This process was endorsed by the UN Security Council in its Resolution 2254 of December 2015 (see appendix). Geneva III Conference In accordance with the Vienna peace agreement, the Geneva III Conference was held in January and February 2016 with the Syrian government and opposition present. Talks once again broke down without producing a solution Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees: General Assembly Resolution 2198 This convention, adopted in 1951 by 144 member states, outlines the rights of refugees and the duties of member states to refugees. UNHCR s World at War Report In 2014, the UNHCR published the World at War report. The report provides in depth information about the refugees who have fled conflict worldwide.

15 8. Possible solutions As previously mentioned, the situation in Syria is a very complex one, made up of many smaller issues. Each of these component issues should be tackled individually in order to create the best solution for Syria. Keep in mind that only the Security Council can authorize military action to intervene in another state s affairs. The foremost issue to tackle is to ensure that the Syrian people remain safe. Human rights abuses, committed by both rebel groups and government forces, have been far too common. Deliberate attacks on civilians, torture, and kidnappings have occurred on countless occasions. These must be stopped. Increased access for humanitarian groups to struggling civilians should be allowed, but would likely have to take place under a ceasefire. Syrians who have fled abroad should also be offered solutions to ensure their security. Thousands of refugees wait in holding camps in Europe, many of which are overcrowded and pushing the limits of their resources. Yet, many more have fled to neighboring countries such as Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan. Some European countries, such as Macedonia and Hungary, have closed their borders from refugees trying to move through Europe. Asylum requests have been taking months. Viable solutions must be formulated to help the countries that are hosting the majority of Syrian refugees: Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and Greece. The EU has attempted to implement a quota program which would distribute refugees throughout the continent, but the initiative has largely failed. It is also important to lead a strong campaign against ISIS. Their extremist views and horrifying terrorist acts should make the group an easy enemy for foreign countries to unite against. The US is currently leading an airstrike campaign, as is Russia. While the airstrikes do seem to have helped push back ISIS s territorial gains, the debate remains as to whether countries should be committing more resources and troops. Tighter border controls around ISIS-controlled areas, especially the Turkish border with Syria, may help reduce the flow of jihadists and weapons to ISIS. The UN can also focus on a number of other ways of weakening ISIS. The groups derives much of its income from the sale of oil on illegal markets. Monitoring systems of oil smuggling routes may be set up in order to try and limit the amount of oil the group is able to sell. The group also recruits foreign fighters through social media. Member states may want to set up systems, such as a no-fly list, that limit the movement ability of people with suspected ties to ISIS. Countries will also have to cooperate and share information in order to expedite the process of identifying and stopping those who may be attempting to travel overseas and join ISIS. Finally, the ultimate goal of any resolution would be to create a lasting peace, or at least set the stage for peace talks. The most desirable solution here would be to have a Syrian-led process, though the UN would likely play a role in setting up and moderating the meetings. A decision must also be made as to which rebel groups will show up on the opposition s side of the negotiating table. In order for effective peace talks to take place, a general ceasefire would have to take place, and both sides would have to make concessions. Ethnic and religious gaps would have to be bridged. The UN has formally endorsed a number of peace plans for Syria, most recently the ISSG Vienna Plan. Ultimately, the negotiations should focus on the establishment of an inclusive transitional government, democracy, peace and justice in Syria. As past attempts at peace have shown, however, this is easier said than done.

16 In the end, the UN can pass any number of resolutions, or set up any number of conferences, but the peace process must come from both the Syrian government and rebel forces taking measures in good faith. Appendices This is a link to an interactive live map of Syria, including which groups control which territories: These are some good videos produced by Vox that break down various elements of the situation in Syria. These could be helpful in getting a general background on the issue. On ISIS today: On the rise of ISIS: On the origins and combat of the Syrian Civil War: Stanford University has a collection of profiles of militant organizations in Syria: UN Security Council Resolution 2254 is worth taking a look at. The European Council for Foreign Relations also has a great report on the stances of a number of Middle Eastern countries on the situation in Syria: This is a list of resolutions the UN has passed concerning Syria:

17 Bibliography "Guide to the Syrian Rebels." BBC News. BBC, 13 Dec Web. 30 Aug Polk, William R. "Understanding Syria: From Pre-Civil War to Post-Assad." The Atlantic. Atlantic Media Company, 10 Dec Web. 30 Aug "The Geopolitics of the Syrian Civil War." Stratfor. Geopolitical Weekly, 4 Aug Web. 30 Aug "Syria: The Story of the Conflict." BBC News. BBC, 11 Mar Web. 30 Aug Al Jazeera. "Syria's Civil War Explained." Al Jazeera News. N.p., 24 May Web. 30 Aug

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