Potential for Local manufacturing of Wind Turbines in Egypt

Transcription

1 Potential for Local manufacturing of Wind Turbines in Egypt Adel Khalil and Amin Mubarak Cairo University Presented at Wind Energy and Grid Integration Symposium University of Kassel October16th, 2007

2 Renewable Energy Sector in Egypt A Study by IMC/ERC Global, MENA and National Review of RE Technologies, Markets and Policies. Industrial survey of current and future potential for Manufacturing RE systems. Positioning of RE technologies Future scenario analysis Development strategy and action plan. Role of Research and Development

3 SELECTED RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES (RET) Wind Energy Solar Thermal Applications PV Applications Biomass

4 Investment Learning Curve for Different RETs Technology Summary Cost (kw/$) Wind Technology (WT) CSP Technology Hydropower (HYP) PV

5 Costs and Characteristics of Renewable Energy Technologies (Source: IEA) Technology (for Power Generation) Large hydro Small hydro On-Shore Wind Off- shore Wind Biomass Power Geothermal Power Solar PV Typical Energy Costs Cents/kWh Solar Thermal (CSP) 12-18

6 POSITIONING OF RE TECHNOLOGIES ( factors affecting positioning) 1. Average annual growth rate & size 2. Value Added for industry 3. Competition Strength 4. Technology requirements 5. Technology perspective future 6. Technology Maturity 7. Environmental impacts 8. Technology Provisions 9. Implementation Satisfaction

7 Positioning of Renewable Energy Technologies in Egypt 5.00 Low Medium High H Market Attractivene M 1.00 L Technology Positioning Wind CSP PV Biomass SWH

8 Wind Energy Resources Assessment Egypt enjoys excellent wind regime, particularly in the Suez Gulf where the wind speed reaches 10.8 m/sec. The wind atlas for the Suez Gulf Coast shows that the region can host about MW of wind farms. Economic Potential 90 TWh/Y

9 Wind Farms in Egypt Zafarana, Gabal El Zeit, Hurghada 230 MW implemented 320 MW under implementation 850 MW planned by 2010

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11 Wind Energy System Costs Feasibility Study Development Engineering Turbines Balance of plant 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Portion of Installed Costs

12 Value Chain Analysis R&D&D Egypt SWOT (compared with international best standard) Component manufacturing VA in % of RET life-cycle cost Cost reduction potential Egyptian share of VA, SWOT Potential for Increase in Eg. share RET system manufacturing VA in % of RET life-cycle cost Cost reduction potential Egyptian share of VA, SWOT Potential for Increase in Eg. share Sales & installation VA in % of RET life-cycle cost Potential for cost reduction SWOT After- Sales Service VA in % of RET lifecycle cost Cost reduction potential Egyptian share

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14 Potential of Egyptian Industry for RE Local Manufacturing A) Local manufacturing B) Research and Development needed C) Technology Transfer/Joint Ventures/Import

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16 Wind Energy Systems Component A B C Tower X Blade X X Yawing system X X Gear-box X X Generator X X Control systems X X Cables X Transformers X X Auxiliaries X X X Operation and maintenance X X

17 Potential Share of Local Manufacturing Technology Wind energy Solar water heaters Photovoltaic systems Biomass Concentrated solar power Reactive Policy 40% 70% 20% 50% 30% Pro-active Policy 65% 95% 30% 95% 50%

18 SCENARIO ANALYSIS Reference scenario (liberated fuel cost) Low scenario (MOEE Plan) Med. scenario (RE: 15.5% of inst. Electric power and 10.8% of Elect. Energy Generation by 2022) High scenario (RE: 22.3% of inst. Electric power and 16 % of Elect. Energy Generation by 2022) Scenarios can also be classified as Reactive scenario (business as usual) Proactive Scenario

19 Projected Power Generation Costs versus RESPG Costs

20 Power Generation Needs and Recommended Energy Technologies High Scenario Installed Capacity (MW) 60,000 50,000 PV Hydropower (HYP) CSP Technology Wind Technology (WT) Thermal Power Plants (TPP) High Scenario 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 - TPP WT CSP HYP PV Renewables wo HYP Installed Power Sharing % 82.6% 75.1% 70.7% 0.8% 6.5% 13.7% 17.8% 0.0% 0.6% 2.0% 3.9% 14.8% 10.3% 9.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.8% 7.1% 15.7% 22.3% Year

21 Energy Generation Needs and Recommended Energy Technologies High Scenario Generated Energy (GWh) 300, ,000 PV Hydropower (HYP) CSP Technology Wind Technology (WT) Thermal Power Plants (TPP) High Scenario 200, , ,000 50,000 - TPP WT CSP HYP PV Renewables wo HYP Energy Sharing % 86.0% 80.3% 77.5% 0.5% 4.6% 10.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.3% 1.2% 2.4% 12.5% 9.1% 8.4% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 4.9% 11.3% 16.0% Year

22 Evolution of Installed Wind Technology in Power Generation of Egypt MW 12,000 10,000 High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Year

23 Local Manufacturing Investment, R&D, and Market Volume for Wind Technology (million US$) Scenario WT Total Market Volume 2,032 3,857 5, Share of Local Manufacturing 55% 65% 75% Investment in Manufacturing Processes ,689 3,370 R&D Investment Market Volume 1,547 2,233 4,061 7,840 Share of Local Manufacturing 55% 65% 75% Investment in Manufacturing Processes ,641 2,614 R&D Investment High Medium Low Market Volume 891 1,119 1,389 3,399 Share of Local Manufacturing 55% 65% 75% Investment in Manufacturing Processes ,028 R&D Investment

24 Projected Power Generation Costs and Loss in Revenues from CER and Gap Costs

25 Projected Additional Revenues Due to RETs Implementation in Power Generation High Scenario (million US$) CER Costs Gap Costs Year WT CSP HYP PV Total ,180 Annual Average WT 581 2, ,164 CSP ,231 HYP PV Total 667 2,914 9,378 Annual Average 762

26 Development strategy targets To achieve 22.3 %RE target by 2022, a proactive policy to promote RET should be adopted. Installation of MW of wind Energy (WE). Installation of 2550 MW of concentrated solar power (CSP). Installation of 500 MW photovoltaic (PV) arrays. Installation of 1.2 million sq.m of solar water heaters (SWH). Saving of 4 million ton oil equivalent by utilizing biomass. Acquiring 0.5 % share of European Union RET market by 2012 which Represents billion US $ manufactured components of RE systems. These estimates are based on the high RET scenario and the EU RET market of 100 billion Euros.

27 Strategy for Manufacturing Renewable Energy Equipment (Objective: 23 % RE Inst. Power share by 2022) Component 1 Financial Instruments Component 2 Research, Development and Innovation Program Component 3 Legislations for Feed in Law and Feed in Tariff Component 4 Market Enhancement and Infra-Str Development Component 5 Information Service, Awareness and Capacity Building Strong Sustainable National Industrial Program for Local Market and Export of RE Equipment and components

28 Removal of Barriers To Rets Implementation In Egypt Economic & financial barriers, Awareness & information barriers Technical barriers Market barriers Social barriers Institutional & policy barriers

29 Financial Instruments Soft Loans Commercial loans Revenue bonds Ownership certificate Developing RE Projects as CDM-Projects RE fund

30 Innovation R&D program Fostering Innovation Culture Establishing A Framework Conductive To Innovation Gearing Research To Innovation National research plan including solutions to problems facing the five selected RETs Establishing a center of excellence for RET

31 RCREEE-Activities Think Tank (RE-policies & instruments Regional cooperation & Cross-regional Cooperation) Management of Regional R&D&D Programs for RE RCERE RE-Training Courses & post-graduate RE-education RE-Information Services Testing & Certification

32 RCREEE-Target Groups Private Project Developers Manufacturers of RE- Technology Consulting Firms RCERE Government Policy Makers Students Service Providers (Installers, O&M)

33 RCREEE as Network of Institutions ANMEA Tunisia.. Yemen Centre de Développement de l Énergie Renouvelable Marocco RCREEE.. Lybia.. Algeria.. Syria.. Jordania

34 Tailored Legislation Objective: The creation of a legal, institutional and incentive framework to stimulate and support large scale annual investments in RE in fulfillment of Government policy objectives for the energy sector: Scope: Feed-in Law and Feed in Tariff in order to secure the RET market Liberation of fuel prices Removal/reduction of taxes and duties RE Incentives

35 Information Service, Awareness and Capacity Building Program Awareness and promotion programs such as: demonstrations of systems, brochures, training courses, Workshops, seminars and presentations for targeted users. School/University educational materials

36 Action Plan for Wind Technology

37 RENEWABLE ENERGY FUND This fund can cover the gap between RE feed in tariff and the average price of generated electricity by thermal power plants. The RE fund could finance R&D for RETs systems and their components design for local manufacturing activities. Cost savings resulting from electricity generation by hydropower plants as compared to thermal power plants, could also finance the deficit for feed in tariff and R&D for RETs if any.

38 Expected savings in fossil fuel resources and emission reduction due to the implementation of the action plan for local manufacturing of RET systems and components. High Scenario Medium Scenario Low Scenario Technology of Power Generation Anticipated Savings TOE (million) CO 2 (million tons) Anticipated Cost Savings (million US$) Opportunity Cost for Export Certified Emission Reduction Anticipated Avoided Subsidy (million US$) *Business as Usual **Fuel Prices Liberation to close the Gap Generated Energy via RET (million kwh) Wind ,299 1,789 13,311 5, ,608 CSP , , ,070 PV ,380 Total ,213 2,090 15,553 6, ,059 Wind ,830 1,223 9,103 3, ,776 CSP , , ,514 PV ,409 Total ,652 1,412 10,505 4, ,699 Wind , ,408 1,840 97,222 CSP ,556 PV Total , ,158 2, ,778

39 Decree by the Supreme Council of Energy (10/4/2007) Strategy to reach 20 % of generation capacity from renewable energy by The strategy includes a plan for local manufacturing, legislations to encourage investments in RE, plan for tendering and electricity market liberation.

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