The CSP Roadmap of the IEA

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1 ISES, Rehovot, 6 October 2010 The CSP Roadmap of the IEA Cédric Philibert Renewable Energy Division International Energy Agency

2 Mtoe OECD and non-oecd primary energy demand in the Baseline scenario ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to Baseline 2015 Baseline 2030 Baseline 2050 Non-OECD OECD OECD/IEA Primary energy demand in non-oecd countries is projected to increase much faster than in OECD countries in the Baseline scenario.

Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2 0 1 0 Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Gt CO2 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Baseline emissions 57 Gt BLUE Map

3 Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Gt CO Baseline emissions 57 Gt BLUE Map emissions 14 Gt WEO ppmcase ETP2010 analysis CCS 19% Renewables 17% Nuclear 6% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 5% End-use fuel switching 15% End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% A wide range of technologies will be necessary to reduce energy-related CO 2 emissions. OECD/IEA

4 PWh The primary role of renewables in the BLUE scenarios ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to Baseline 2050 BLUE Map 2050 BLUE High Nuclear 2050 BLUE High Ren 2050 Other Solar Wind Biomass+CCS Biomass and waste Hydro Nuclear Natural gas+ccs Natural gas Oil Coal+CCS Coal Renewables provide from almost half to three quarters of the global electricity mix in 2050 OECD/IEA

Growth of renewable power generation in the BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2 0 1 0 Scenarios & Strategies to

5 Growth of renewable power generation in the BLUE Map ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 Electricity generation from RE grows strongly. Wind, hydropower and solar provide the bulk of it. OECD/IEA

RE generation in 2050 for key countries/regions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES 2 0 1

6 RE generation in 2050 for key countries/regions ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PERSPECTIVES Scenarios & Strategies to 2050 The mix varies according to resources OECD/IEA

7 OECD/IEA 2009 How do we get there from here? Energy Technology Roadmaps At the request of G8 Heads of State/Government Based on scenario to halve CO2 emissions by 2050 Create technical, policy, legal, financial, and public acceptance milestones and priority near-term actions Roadmaps published: CCS, electric vehicles, wind, cement sector, solar PV, concentrating solar power, nuclear power Forthcoming roadmaps : smart grids, biofuels, EE buildings, geothermal energy, bioenergy for heat and power, solar heating and cooling

8 Wind roadmap targets Regional wind electricity production to 2050 (TWh) Source: IEA, Wind Energy Roadmap (forthcoming). Wind has the potential to provide 12% of global electricity production in 2050

9 PV & CSP technology roadmaps Launched by IEA s Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka in Valencia, 11 May 2010 (MSP Conf.) PV and CSP complementary to each other Solar electricity could represent up to 20% to 25% of global electricity production by 2050 Roughly half CSP, half PV Producing up to 9000 TWh per year Saving almost 6 billion tonnes CO 2 per year This decade crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity Need to plan and invest in grid infrastructure

semi-arid countries Mostly for utilities Firm, dispatchable backup }{ Peak to base-load storage

10 PV & CSP complementarities PV takes all light PV almost everywhere Mostly at end-users Variable Peak & mid-peak Grid parity (retail prices) by 2020 Smart grids for integration CSP takes direct light CSP semi-arid countries Mostly for utilities Firm, dispatchable backup }{ Peak to base-load storage Competitive peak power by 2020 HVDC lines for transport Firm & flexible CSP capacities can help integrate more PV

11 Solar PV Vision PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050

14 Strengths and weaknesses Strengths and weaknesses

16 CSP costs and global output Competition for peak and mid-peak loads Competition for base load

17 How accurate are our DNI Data? SWERA: NASA NREL The case of Morocco Ain Béni Mathar Ouarzazate Boujdour Foum Al Oued Sabkhat Tah

18 How accurate (2) Source: Solar Paces

19 The best regions for CSP Favorable for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Worth considering for CSP Source: Pharabod & Philibert, 1991

20 The CSP Roadmap: 2050 Consumption Production A detailed regional assessment with HVDC lines

Advantages of North African exports to EU For the EU: Firm, dispatchable solar electricity Facilitates integrating more wind and PV Cost competitive Helps achieve RE targets by 2020 For North

21 Advantages of North African exports to EU For the EU: Firm, dispatchable solar electricity Facilitates integrating more wind and PV Cost competitive Helps achieve RE targets by 2020 For North Africa: Abundant resources for local needs and exports Stable revenues through exports of RE power Revenues to finance domestic power investments Ensuring stability and security of supply for both sides

22 Uses of storage Intermediate load Delayed intermediate load

23 Uses of storage Base load Extreme peak load

24 Concentrating solar fuels

25 Solar Policy Recommendations 1. Implement solar-specific incentives Declining over time (for new plants) to take benefit of cost reductions 2. Markets to reward firm capacities by CSP plants 3. Avoid arbitrary limits on plant size and hybridisation But reward only solar electricity share from hybrid plants 4. Ensure funding with long term certainty for public and private RD&D for solar electricity 5. Streamline permitting procedures for plants and access lines 6. Negotiate power purchase agreements between exporting and importing countries

Integration of Variable Renewables New year Deploying Renewables

26 Forthcoming World Energy Outlook A full section devoted to Renewable energies 9 November 2010 Other RE roadmaps Grid Integration of Variable Renewables New year Deploying Renewables Worldwide Prospects and Challenges March Solar Publication PV, CSP, SHC June/July

Belgium Smart Grid Day. 18 th October 2012, Brussels Alex Murley, IEA

Belgium Smart Grid Day. 18 th October 2012, Brussels Alex Murley, IEA Belgium Smart Grid Day 18 th October 2012, Brussels Alex Murley, IEA OECD/IEA 2012 Agenda IEA Smart Grid Analysis IEA TechPlatform How2Guide initiative OECD/IEA 2011 CO 2 emissions (gigatonnes) WEO2011: