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1 Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler Profit rebound in Q4 Q414 results Investment companies Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler (ISY) reported 2014 consolidated net profits 11% lower than in 2013 with a good performance from its bank debt investment unit (Efes NPL Asset management) partly compensating for the absence of private equity profits, which boosted 2013 results. Corporate finance fees were also strong in Q4 due to the completion of four M&A transactions. We have increased our concerns that the rising political and economic uncertainty affecting Turkey may inhibit client activity and have lowered our 2015 EPS forecast by 4%. 18 February 2015 Price TRY1.33 Market cap TRY442m Shares in issue 332m Free float 29% Code ISMEN Year end Revenue (TRYm) Attributable profit* (TRYm) EPS* (Kr) DPS (Kr) P/E (x) Yield 12/ / /15e /16e Note: *Attributable profit and EPS (fully diluted) are normalised, excluding intangible amortisation, exceptional items and share-based payments. Primary exchange Secondary exchange Share price performance BIST N/A Q4 profit recovery Q414 net attributable profits rose 25% year-on-year thanks to a particularly good performance from the Efes NPL Asset Management business, which makes profits from buying NPLs (non-performing loans) from Turkish banks at a discount to the recoverable amount. There was also a good performance from corporate finance fees, up over 200% y-o-y, with four deals closed in the quarter. Cautious approach to 2015 profit forecasts We have lowered our 2015 EPS forecast by 4% to reflect the increased political uncertainty in Turkey, which we fear could stymie deal-making and trading during the year. In addition, there is local political uncertainty arising from the June 2015 general election and a new President whose words seem to be undermining the Turkish Central Bank s credibility. Valuation: Implied risk premium persists ISY is trading on a FY15e P/E of 6.0x (broader European universal bank group: 10.6x) and a dividend yield of 5.3% (broader group: 4.0%) and is on a comparable P/BV multiple for 0.7x for 2015 despite being forecast to generate a higher ROE (12.7% in FY15e versus a consensus for the broader group of 6.7%). The market continues to attach an increased risk premium to Turkish investments consistent with the current geopolitical and local economic and political uncertainties. % 1m 3m 12m Abs Rel (local) (13.7) 52-week high/low TRY1.3 TRY1.1 Business description Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler s core investment banking division (Is Investment) offers brokerage, corporate finance, investment advisory services, advice on IPOs and portfolio management services. It also has investments in four consolidated subsidiaries. Next event Q115 Results Estimated End April 2015 Analysts Peter Thorne +44 (0) Martyn King +44 (0) Edison profile page Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler is a research client of Edison Investment Research Limited

2 Q4 market recovery The Turkish equity market was one of the best performers in Q414, rising 14% in local currency terms compared with a rise of 1% for the MSCI World Index and a fall of 5% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Turkey has a large current account deficit (5.4% of GDP at the end of 2014 according to OECD statistics, it was 7.9% in 2013) with an inflation rate at the end of 2014 of 8.2% (source: TurkStat), so the near 40% fall in the oil price in Q4 was perceived to benefit the Turkish economy through reducing the current account deficit and lowering inflation. Turkish bond yields drifted down in the quarter with the Turkish President s controversial call for the central bank to lower rates. The Turkish lira was weak in the quarter due to lower interest rate expectations and political uncertainty at home and in Ukraine, Syria and Iraq. Exhibit 1: Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index recovered in Q414 (TRY) 95,000 90,000 85,000 80,000 75,000 70,000 65,000 60,000 Dec/12 Feb/13 Apr/13 Jun/13 Aug/13 Oct/13 Dec/13 Feb/14 Apr/14 Jun/14 Aug/14 Oct/14 Dec/14 Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 2: Turkish two-year government bond yields fell in Q Dec/12 Feb/13 Apr/13 Jun/13 Aug/13 Oct/13 Dec/13 Feb/14 Apr/14 Jun/14 Aug/14 Oct/14 Dec/14 Source: Bloomberg Exhibit 3: The Turkish lira depreciated further against the US$ in Q Dec/12 Feb/13 Apr/13 Jun/13 Aug/13 Oct/13 Dec/13 Feb/14 Apr/14 Jun/14 Aug/14 Oct/14 Dec/14 Source: Bloomberg Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 18 February

3 In such market conditions ISY earned record profits in Q414 so the full year outturn was just 11% less than in 2013 at the attributable level, as we show in the table on the following page. Accounting change reversal For the first nine months of 2014, ISY reported its financial results on the assumption that it would not have to consolidate the results of the private equity investments owned by IS Private Equity, its private equity investment arm, but would be required to record fair value changes to its investments through its profit and loss account. However, following advice from its auditor, it has reversed this in its FY14 results and consolidated the private equity investments of IS Private Equity. This means the figures for Q414 included the results of IS Private Equity investments for the first nine months of the year in addition to those of Q4, and a reversal of the fair value gains. Q414 on Q413 Q414 net attributable profit rose 25% y-o-y for a record Q4 performance. There was a notable growth in NPL Management revenues, which are earned by the Efes NPL Asset Management subsidiary. This acquires NPLs (non-performing loans) from Turkish banks and earns revenues from them when the debtors pay interest and repay capital. Turkish banks are motivated to sell their NPLs as local rules prevent them lowering interest rates for distressed borrowers and any provisions they make are not deductible for corporation tax purposes. Selling the loan allows the interest rate to be amended and the crystallised loss is allowable for tax purposes and so act as motivations for banks to sell NPL portfolios. Efes NPL Asset Management has improved its valuation of bank NPL portfolios in the last year and believes it can continue to earn good profits from this activity. The company has bought portfolios from large Turkish banks such as Akbank and Yapi Kredi. The large increase in trading profits in Q414 results to around TRY89m (Q414: TRY17.9m) largely reflected the reversal of the accounting change referred to above. Most of the TRY69.4m of other trading profits in Q414 arose from this accounting change. Q414 commission income was 16% up y-o-y with a notable increase in corporate finance income with ISY closing four deals in the final quarter. In aggregate, total revenue rose 91% y-o-y in Q414. Operating expenses increased nearly as much, by 75%, largely because of the accounting change referred to above, as Q414 included a full year of the expenses of the private equity investments. On a like-for-like basis operating expenses for 2014 were 8% ahead of the 2013 amount. This led to a 187% increase y-o-y in operating profits, but with TRY14.5m in non-operating income in Q414. Again, largely because of the above accounting change, the outturn was a 25% increase in attributable profit. The group profit allocation by parent subsidiary shows the strong contribution from Efes NPL Asset Management in this quarter, which accounted for almost half of the group s profits on 2013 The overall result for 2014 was an 11% fall in attributable profit from the elevated level in 2013, which benefited from a large realisation in Q313 at Is Private Equity. No such realisations were made in 2014 and its profit contribution declined by over 60% as a result. Efes NPL Asset Management made a notable increase in profits in 2014 to TRY16.6m and accounted for around a quarter of group profits. Is Investment Trust, which invests in Turkish bonds (87%) and listed equities (13%), contributed TRY7.6m, or 12%, to 2014 profits as a result of the rise in price of Turkish bond and equity markets during the year. Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 18 February

4 Exhibit 4: ISY Q414 and 2014 results Q413 Q414 % chg % chg Interest income Fixed income securities NPL Management revenues Derivative income and arbitrage 9.9 (0.3) (104) Equity margin trading Trading profits (15) Commission income Brokerage income (6) (15) Corporate Finance (21) Asset Management (8) Other Commissions Commission income (14) Total revenue Operating expenses (68.9) (120.4) 75 (247.2) (266.5) 8 Other expenses (3.1) (2.3) (24) -4.3 (2.1) (52) Operating profit (4) Net profits accounted under equity method 0.0 (0.3) 4.3 (0.3) (107) Non-operating income 0.3 (14.5) (4.2) (30.9) Pre-tax profit (27) Taxation 0.3 (1.2) (11.8) (7.9) (33) Profit after tax (26) Minority interests (2.4) (46) Attributable profit (11) By parent/subsidiary IS Investment Only (A) (52) (25) IS Investment Trust (28.9%) (1.0) IS Private Equity (29.1%) (2.0) (63) IS Asset Management (70.0%) Efes NPL Asset Management (74%) Elimination Adjustments (B) (0.9) -5.3 (18.2) (20.6) 13 Profit attributable to shareholders (D) (11) Is Investment Only after eliminations(a-b=c) (43) As % total (C/D) Source: ISY, Edison Investment Research Estimates and valuation Like all investments banks, ISY s profits are volatile and heavily dependent on market conditions. A full description of its range of activities can be found in our outlook note published on 4 December There are some grounds to be positive for 2015, not least the fact that the equity market will start the year more than 25% higher than it started 2014, the collapse in the oil price putting downward pressure on the inflation rate, and the current account deficit two historical problems for the Turkish economy. However, there are considerable political uncertainties that could undermine the financial markets in which ISY operates and lead to less trading activity and revenue. The first is the ongoing conflicts in neighbouring countries such as Ukraine, Syria and Iraq, which may undermine economic activity in Turkey. The second is the local political environment. Commentators have speculated that the new President may change the political system from one of parliamentary democracy to a presidential system in which he could exercise more power and pursue political and economic policies not supportive of Turkish economic and market growth, even though his period as Prime Minister coincided with a period of considerable economic success. His recent criticism of the Turkish central bank for not lowering interest rates fast enough to encourage growth, despite the high level of inflation in the economy, have added to market concerns about his behaviour. There is a general election in June 2015, which could cement the ruling party s position of power and lead to more uncertainty. Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 18 February

5 Political and economic uncertainties are not unusual in Turkey, nor in emerging markets, but 2015 does seem potentially particularly problematic. Moderate volatility can be good for trading activity, but extreme volatility sparked by major political turmoil is not good for trading or deal activity. Falling equity prices would have knock-on effects by reducing revenues from asset management and corporate finance with lower asset volumes and deal activity. We have taken a conservative approach to our 2015 forecasts and reduced EPS expectations by 4%, while for 2016 we tentatively look for 5% growth on the 2015 figure, as we show in the following table. Exhibit 5: ISY forecast changes Revenue Attributable profit EPS DPS TRYm TRYm % chg TRYm TRYm % chg Kr Kr % chg Kr Kr % chg Old New Old New Old* New Old* New 12/15e (4) (4) % 12/16e Source: Edison Investment Research Although we have lowered our 2015 profit forecast, we still anticipate an 18% increase on that achieved in 2014 with the higher equity market leading to more equity commissions, trading revenue and corporate finance activity, and Efes NPL Asset Management continuing to make a good contribution. Valuation Exhibit 6: Peer valuation table ISY is the only investment company quoted on the Turkish national market, so direct peer comparisons from Turkey are not possible. There are some large Turkish universal banks that have investment banking operations, but they are dominated by their retail and commercial banking activities so we do not believe that rating comparisons with them are useful. However, there are some European banks with significant investment banking operations and we show their valuation metrics in the following table along with ISY. ISY trades at a significant discount to these banks, with its P/E ratio being around 56% of the peer average for 2015 and over 60% for Despite a 2015e ROE almost 100% higher than the average its P/BV is comparable to the peer average, as we show in the following table. P/E ratio (x) Price to book value (x) Dividend yield Return on equity Return on assets 2015e 2016e 2015e 2016e 2015e 2016e 2015e 2016e 2015e 2016e IS YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER AS Average BNP PARIBAS UBS AG-REG CREDIT SUISSE GROUP AG-REG SOCIETE GENERALE BARCLAYS PLC DEUTSCHE BANK AG-REGISTERED Source: Company data, Bloomberg. Note: Data at 16 February Another way to look at the valuation of ISY is to estimate the cost of equity that investors are using in their valuation of ISY and compare it with other banks. This can be determined by using a variant of the Gordon s growth model for banks in which the cost of equity is calculated as follows: Cost of equity = ROE growth rate P/BV + growth rate Taking 2016 estimates, if we assume a 5% long-term growth rate, the COE for the broader bank group in the table above, which is implied by a forecast ROE of 8.4% and P/BV of 0.8x, is c 10%. For ISY, using the same assumed 5% growth rate, the 0.7x P/BV and 12.3% ROE implies a COE of c 16%. This c 6% premium risk weighting, attached to a leading participant in a long-term growth Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 18 February

6 market (absolute growth and penetration), paying high dividends, is significant, and is even slightly wider than the c 5.5% current differential between US and Turkish government 10-year (risk free) yields. Exhibit 7: Financial summary TRYm e 2016e Year-end 31 December IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS IFRS PROFIT & LOSS Revenue Operating expenses (193.5) (247.2) (266.5) (280.0) (300.0) Gross Profit Other operating Income Other operating Expenses (4.8) (10.0) (2.1) (2.0) (2.0) Operating profit Other income (31.2) (20.0) (20.0) Net financials Exceptionals Profit Before Tax (norm) Profit Before Tax (FRS) Tax (16.5) (11.8) (7.9) (14.9) (15.4) Profit After Tax (norm) Profit After Tax (FRS) Minority interest Net income (norm) Net income (FRS) Average Number of Shares Outstanding (m) EPS - normalised fully diluted (kr) EPS - IFRS (kr) Dividend per share (Kr) BALANCE SHEET Fixed Assets Intangible Assets Tangible Assets Investments Current Assets 4, , , , ,380.0 Investments Trade receivables 1, , , , ,450.0 Cash and equivalents 2, , , , ,000.0 Other Total Assets 4, , , , ,549.0 Current Liabilities (3,240.5) (3,907.8) (4,294.9) (4,347.3) (4,349.0) Short term borrowings (2,319.6) (2,753.8) (3,140.1) (3,182.3) (3,174.0) Trade payables (829.3) (979.4) (981.2) (990.0) (1,000.0) Other (91.6) (174.6) (173.6) (175.0) (175.0) Long Term Liabilities (72.2) (110.1) (102.2) (103.0) (105.0) Long term borrowings (58.3) (95.0) (90.1) (95.0) (97.0) Other long term liabilities (13.9) (15.1) (12.1) (8.0) (8.0) Total Liabilities (3,312.7) (4,017.9) (4,397.1) (4,450.3) (4,454.0) Equity attributable to ordinary shareholders Minority interest Total shareholders' equity , ,095.0 Number of shares at year end (m) NAV per share ROE 14.0% 14.5% 11.7% 12.7% 12.3% ROA 1.5% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.4% Source: Company data, Edison Investment Research Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler 18 February

7 Edison, the investment intelligence firm, is the future of investor interaction with corporates. Our team of over 100 analysts and investment professionals work with leading companies, fund managers and investment banks worldwide to support their capital markets activity. We provide services to more than 400 retained corporate and investor clients from our offices in London, New York, Frankfurt, Sydney and Wellington. Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority ( Edison Investment Research (NZ) Limited (Edison NZ) is the New Zealand subsidiary of Edison. Edison NZ is registered on the New Zealand Financial Service Providers Register (FSP number ) and is registered to provide wholesale and/or generic financial adviser services only. Edison Investment Research Inc (Edison US) is the US subsidiary of Edison and is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison Investment Research Limited (Edison Aus) [ ] is the Australian subsidiary of Edison and is not regulated by the Australian Securities and Investment Commission. Edison Germany is a branch entity of Edison Investment Research Limited [ ]. DISCLAIMER Copyright 2015 Edison Investment Research Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been commissioned by Is Yatirim Menkul Degerler and prepared and issued by Edison for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Opinions contained in this report represent those of the research department of Edison at the time of publication. The securities described in the Investment Research may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. This research is issued in Australia by Edison Aus and any access to it, is intended only for "wholesale clients" within the meaning of the Australian Corporations Act. The Investment Research is distributed in the United States by Edison US to major US institutional investors only. Edison US is registered as an investment adviser with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Edison US relies upon the "publishers' exclusion" from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 and corresponding state securities laws. As such, Edison does not offer or provide personalised advice. We publish information about companies in which we believe our readers may be interested and this information reflects our sincere opinions. The information that we provide or that is derived from our website is not intended to be, and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as, personalised advice. Also, our website and the information provided by us should not be construed by any subscriber or prospective subscriber as Edison s solicitation to effect, or attempt to effect, any transaction in a security. The research in this document is intended for New Zealand resident professional financial advisers or brokers (for use in their roles as financial advisers or brokers) and habitual investors who are wholesale clients for the purpose of the Financial Advisers Act 2008 (FAA) (as described in sections 5(c) (1)(a), (b) and (c) of the FAA). This is not a solicitation or inducement to buy, sell, subscribe, or underwrite any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. This document is provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation for investment in any securities mentioned or in the topic of this document. 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In addition it may be difficult or not possible to buy, sell or obtain accurate information about the value of securities mentioned in this report. Past performance is not swin necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking information or statements in this report contain information that is based on assumptions, forecasts of future results, estimates of amounts not yet determinable, Forw and therefore involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of their subject matter to be materially different from current expectations. risks For the purpose of the FAA, the content of this report is of a general nature, is intended as a source of general information only and is not intended to constitute a recommendation or opinion in relation to acquiring or this r disposing (including refraining from acquiring or disposing) of securities. The distribution of this document is not a personalised service and, to the extent that it contains any financial advice, is intended only as a class dispo service provided by Edison within the meaning of the FAA (ie without taking into account the particular financial situation or goals of any person). As such, it should not be relied upon in making an investment decision. To the F the maximum extent permitted by law, Edison, its affiliates and contractors, and their respective directors, officers and employees will not be liable for any loss or damage arising as a result of reliance being placed on any affilia of the information contained in this report and do not guarantee the returns on investments in the products discussed in this publication. FTSE International Limited ( FTSE ) FTSE FTSE is a trade mark of the not g London Stock Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE International Limited under license. All rights in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors used accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE Data is permitted without FTSE s express written consent. FTSE Frankfurt +49 (0) Is Schumannstrasse Yatirim Menkul 34b Degerler 280 High 18 Holborn February Park Avenue, 39th Floor Level 25, Aurora Place Level 15, 171 Featherston St Frankfurt Germany London +44 (0) London, WC1V 7EE United Kingdom New York , New York US Sydney +61 (0) Phillip St, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia Wellington +64 (0) Wellington 6011 New Zealand Edis world auth Edis Inc ( not r DISC Copy in the repre rese by E defin infor and solic advis induc inves hold

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